Data Dives On 5 Likely College Hitter First-Rounders In The 2025 MLB Draft
Image credit: Aiva Arquette (Photo by Eddie Kelly/Pro Look Photos)
We’re just over a week away from the 2025 MLB Draft, and with the college season now complete, it’s the perfect time to take a step back and evaluate the year in totality. With a fresh crop of top college hitters set to enter pro ball in the coming weeks, it’s valuable to get a clear sense of what these potential Top 100 Prospects bring to the table.
Today, we’re breaking down five hitters expected to come off the board in the first round. We’ll examine their bat-to-ball skills, plate discipline, power and batted-ball profiles to highlight areas of strength, expose potential weaknesses and project how their games could evolve in professional development environments.
Aiva Arquette, SS, Oregon State
A Hawaii native and product of the famous Saint Louis High School in Honolulu, Arquette spent two seasons at Washington before transferring to Oregon. After breaking out as a sophomore with the Huskies, Arquette starred with Chatham over the summer in the Cape Cod League. In his one season in Corvallis, Arquette hit .354/.461/.654 over 65 games with 19 home runs. He started every game at shortstop and will likely stick on the left side of the infield in pro ball.
Under the hood, Arquette shows strong power metrics across the board, with a patient—if not passive—approach. His bat-to-ball skills are squarely average as far as college baseball metrics go, with a contact rate of 77.1% overall. This is fairly consistent against all pitch types and his ability to hit offspeed is actually slightly above-average. His in-zone contact rate of 84.5% is also right within the median.
Arquette likely will see his bat-to-ball metrics back up when he reaches the upper minors or, if things go well, the majors. He’s unlikely to be an above-average contact hitter. At 6-foot-5, Arquette has long limbs and while he is adept at staying shorter to the ball than most hitters his size, he’ll likely need to make an adjustment against pro pitchers.
Arquette’s somewhat passive approach mitigates some of his whiff risk. His 40.6% swing rate and 24.2% chase rate are just about average. However, he takes a higher rate of balls down the heart of the plate without swinging. Arquette’s 63.8% heart swing and 60% zone-swing are both below-average metrics, leaving some concern that he’s more passive than patient.
His power and ability to make his best contact at good angles are major selling points in his profile. Arquette’s 108.1 mph 90th percentile exit velocity is above-average, as is his 59% hard-hit rate this season. His barrel rate of 30.7% shows he consistently makes hard contact at optimal angles, as does his hard-hit launch angle of 18.9 degrees and a pull angle of 10.1 degrees. Arquette punishes all pitch types, though his barrel rate drops a little versus breaking balls.
Overall, there’s a bit to like about Arquette and his ability to catch a high rate of barrels with solid plate skills and above-average power in game. If Arquette can get more aggressive in the zone without tanking his approach, there’s a potential above-average regular with defensive value and power.
Ike Irish, C, Auburn
A well-known prep star at national power Orchard Lake St. Mary (MI) HS, Irish made it to campus at Auburn and starred over three seasons for the Tigers, hitting .350/.435/.625 over 160 career games. Irish enjoyed two strong summers in the Cape Cod League and hit .307 over 62 games in the country’s premier summer wood bat league. He’s considered one of the top hitters in the college class and fits a similar profile to the Dodgers’ Dalton Rushing as a bat-first catching prospect with some defensive versatility.
Some of Irish’s metrics need to be graded on a scale because the quality of competition in the SEC is significantly higher than that of any other conference. With this in mind, Irish’s bat-to-ball skills look more average than fringe-average and that’s certainly in line with his career strikeout numbers. There’s some heightened swing-and-miss versus breaking balls and offspeed, but overall it’s in line with average numbers, particularly for a hitter with Irish’s power.
Irish’s approach is a strength and he can discern balls and strikes. His 73.1% heart swing rate is above-average and his 41% swing rate compared to a 23.3% chase rate suggests he strikes a strong balance of attacking prime pitches over the middle of the plate without chasing heavily. Irish’s numbers against offspeed actually show he’s rarely fooled by changeups or splitters. His 20.5% chase rate against those pitches is his lowest against any pitch type while boasting his highest heart swing.
Irish’s calling card is certainly his raw power and quality of consistent hard contact. His 61% hard-hit rate is plus and his 107.4 mph 90th percentile exit velocity is above-average. Irish’s barrel rate of 22.9% is above-average as well, but does show some clues as to where Irish needs to improve. His angles are fairly flat with a 9.6 degree hard-hit launch angle and just a 30.9% sweet spot, a slightly below-average number for a metric that looks at ideal angles.
Much of his struggles in terms of bad angles on hard contact comes against breaking balls and offspeed. His hard-hit launch angles against fastballs of 10.5 degrees and his pull launch angle of 11.2 are average. Against breaking balls, his average launch angle drops to 8.1 degrees while the same number against offspeed drops to 7.8 degrees. Irish’s pull launch angles against both of those pitch types plummet as well.
Irish is a talented hitter with possibly more power projection remaining as he works with a player development group to improve his angles on contact. That may also add some risk to the profile, but will optimize his outcomes on contact.
Marek Houston, SS, Wake Forest
After starting 65 games as a freshman and hitting .220/.328/.307, Houston broke out as a sophomore hitting .326/.433/.516 over 54 games with the Demon Deacons. After a strong showing in the Cape Cod League in the summer of 2024, Houston hit .354/.458/.597 with a career-high 15 home runs over 61 games. Houston is an outstanding defensive shortstop who’s considered a near-lock to stick at the position long-term.
Houston’s a different type of hitter than Arquette or Irish. He lacks the high-end exit velocities backing his power production, but has well above-average to plus contact skills. Houston’s 90.2% zone-contact rate in 2025 is plus, while his 95.9% zone contact rate against fastballs is outstanding. He does show some swing-and-miss versus breaking balls, but handles offspeed with little issue.
Strong on-base ability is a selling point for Houston. He walked as much as he struck out this season with a .458 on-base percentage. Houston is a fairly passive hitter with a 37.1% swing rate overall and a 62.3% heart swing rate, a below-average number. His lower heart swing rates are fairly consistent across a variety of pitch types but they spike slightly against offspeed. Houston is highly passive against breaking balls with a 32.9% swing rate and a 58.6% heart swing. This could be by design, as his only pitch type with any swing-and-miss in the data comes against spin.
Power, while improved over the last few seasons, is not a selling point in Houston’s profile. His 102.4 mph 90th percentile exit velocity is below-average, while his 39% hard-hit rate is really nothing to be terribly excited about. Houston’s 18.7% barrel rate is solid and he does show solid angles on his hard contact overall, with a 17 degree launch angle on batted ball events clocked at 95+ mph. His angles against fastballs are excellent with an 18 degree hard-hit launch angle and a 12.6 pull LA. He shows the ability to elevate breaking balls as well, but has struggled to do anything with offspeed except hit it into the ground.
Houston has a balanced profile with above-average plate skills, below-average raw power and good angles on contact. His defensive ability and plate skills will carry his profile. If he can get stronger and improve his exit velocity data, Houston could develop into a more impactful hitter.
Wehiwa Aloy, SS, Arkansas
Another Hawaii native, Aloy was originally recruited to Sacramento State out of Baldwin High School. He hit .376/.427/.662 as a freshman and transferred to Arkansas before his sophomore season. Aloy hit .270/.355/.485 in his first season with the Razorbacks before a strong showing for Yarmouth-Dennis over 21 games in the Cape Cod League. He exploded in his junior season, hitting .350/.434/.673 and winning the Golden Spikes award. Aloy is a shortstop with average defensive skills who should stick in the dirt even if he moves off of shortstop.
Historically an aggressive hitter, Aloy cut his swing rate this season to 42.7% from 51%. This in turn mitigated some of the risk of his out-of-zone whiff, adding an improved contact rate despite a drop in zone-contact. Aloy will likely see his swing-and-miss numbers increase again as he reaches the upper levels of the minor leagues, but his improved plan at the plate gives him a chance of walking enough to balance his whiffs.
Aloy’s approach has improved, as he made the decision to simply swing less, and his drop in chase swings coincides with a drop in heart swing as well. Though, his heart swing numbers are in line with the average in the SEC. His approach against fastballs and offspeed grades out well with a balance of approach and the ability to lay off pitches out of the zone. He’s more passive against breaking balls, which is likely a prudent approach as Aloy’s contact quality and performance drops against spin of all types.
The ability to find the barrel has long been a calling card of Aloy’s but coincidentally a jump in contact, improvement in both swing decisions and underlying exit velocity data came with a substantial drop in pulled flyballs. His airpull percentage dropped from 47.3% in 2024 to 27.4% in 2025, while his pullside launch angle dropped from 15.2 degrees to -0.1 degrees. That’s a somewhat concerning trend despite the improved production, as pulling the ball in the air will likely be a key component to success as a professional for Aloy. Though his barrel rate and sweet spot rate jumped, the lack of pullside loft does stick out among a set of fairly impressive exit velocity data. Aloy saw a jump from 107.7 mph to 108.8 mph on his 90th percentile exit velocity in 2025 and a jump from 88.2 mph to 92.5 mph on his average exit velocity.
Aloy is a bat-driven profile who’s improved his below-average plate skills in his draft-eligible season. He has above-average game power, but his concerning pullside launch angles will likely be an area any team that drafts him will look to fix.
Gavin Kilen, 2B, Tennessee
After two seasons at Louisville, Kilen made the jump to Tennessee and the SEC for his draft-eligible junior season. Kilen responded with an excellent showing for the Volunteers hitting .357/.441/.671 with a career-high 15 home runs and 30 walks to 27 strikeouts. Kilen saw time at both second base and shortstop for Tennessee this season and is likely to move around the infield as a professional.
Across the board, Kilen does everything fairly well, as he has arguably the most balanced profile of the players likely to be taken in the first round of this year’s draft from the college hitter ranks. His contact skills have long been present, as Kilen has run contact rates in the mid-80% range over the last few seasons. However, he did see a slight dip in the zone-contact this season.
Kilen did improve his approach tremendously in 2025, morphing from an aggressive free-swinging contact hitter to a balanced plate approach with a good mix of aggression and patience. Kilen’s chase rate dropped from 36.9% in 2024 to just 24.4% in 2025, while maintaining a 78.8% heart swing rate. This was true growth in Kilen’s profile as he showed real on-base skills without sacrificing his bat-to-ball ability.
The most exciting development in Kilen’s profile is the improved power and angles this season on hard contact. His hard-hit rate jumped from 44% in 2024 to 49% in 25, while his 90th percentile exit velocity jumped from 103.4 mph to 105.1 mph in 2025. His barrel rate climbed accordingly to 25.3% and his hard-hit launch angle jumped to 12.6 degrees from 9.1 degrees in 2024.
Overall, Kilen improved his angles, his plate approach and power in 2025. These characteristics paired with natural contact ability give him the sort of well-rounded offensive profile that succeeds into today’s professional environment.
