College Baseball Exit Velocities Raise Alarming Safety Concerns
Image credit: (Photo by Eddie Kelly / ProLook Photos)
Editor’s Note: An error on how many players hit a ball 110+ in NCAA Statcast games on opening weekend has been corrected.
The NCAA in 2015 made a subtle but defensible change: It lowered the seams on baseballs, creating a more aerodynamic product in an effort to reverse a growing offensive drought.
At the time, it seemed like a reasonable course correction. Division I teams were averaging just 5.08 runs and 0.39 home runs per game in 2014, and the tweak was meant to nudge the game back toward its exciting, high-scoring roots without tipping the balance too far.
“We anticipate that this will moderately increase scoring but not take it back to the days where we were dealing with outrageous scores that looked more like football scores,” said Dennis Farrell, the committee chair and commissioner of the Big West Conference, in 2015. “We want to get the game back to what is a reasonable amount of scoring and defense.”
The results were immediate and promising.
Runs per game jumped 7%, and home runs soared 44%. The game looked more dynamic, with increased offense offering a boost of excitement, yet still within the bounds of control.
But nearly a decade later, that small change has triggered an unexpected chain reaction. Offenses have only gained steam, with home runs now being hit at a rate almost five times higher than in 2015. And those football scores the NCAA said it intended to avoid? They’re occurring weekly.
The game is arguably more exciting than ever—but it’s also far more explosive than the NCAA intended.
Exit velocities produced on opening weekend in 2025 were the latest evidence.
“It’s unreal,” one Power 4 head coach told Baseball America.
“It’s out of control,” said another.
Take, for example, the 118.1 mph missile launched by Xavier’s Clay Burdette on opening weekend.
It’s a staggering number, not just for college baseball, but for any level of the game. In 2024, only four major league baseball teams hit a ball 118 mph or harder. Even more striking, 11 MLB teams haven’t reached that mark at all in the 10 years since Statcast began tracking batted-ball data.
Yet, there it was. In a college game. In just the opening week of 2025. And it was no outlier.
Over a 21-game sample of contests tracked by Statcast on opening weekend, there were 47 instances of exit velocities reaching at least 110 mph. There were 40 different D-I players who hit a ball 110+ in those 21 tracked games. In the entire 2024 major league season, only 165 players achieved the same feat. Some of the game’s brightest stars, including Los Angeles’ Mookie Betts, Baltimore’s Adley Rustchman and Boston’s Alex Bregman, didn’t pull it off even once last season.
| Exit velocities | Balls hit on opening weekend in 41 Statcast games | MLB teams that achieved exit velo in 2024 |
| 118+ mph | 1 | 4 |
| 116+ mph | 4 | 15 |
| 115+ mph | 6 | 22 |
| 114+ mph | 9 | 28 |
| 110+ mph | 47 | 30 |
College baseball is now seeing these power numbers with alarming regularity, where even the most intense, hard-hitting MLB teams would struggle to keep pace.
“The rationale behind making this change is hoping it will allow certain balls hit at certain trajectories to carry farther,” Farrell said in 2015.
But intense exit velocities haven’t been limited to home runs at all.
On opening weekend alone, there was one instance of a 115.7 mph lineout to first base. Several balls that exceeded 105 mph skimmed across the infield dirt.
“I stand on the field,” Louisville head coach Dan McDonnell told BA. “Even my head is always on a swivel. I’ve always thought this is a little bit of a dangerous sport. It’s not football but, man, this baseball is coming off the bat with some heat. It’s a risk.”
While the NCAA’s original goal was to nudge offense back toward an exciting but controlled level, the reality has obviously grown into something far different. The ball’s aerodynamic shift ultimately propelled the game into a new era, where power is no longer a fleeting phenomenon but a permanent fixture.
“You’re combining the hardest throwers we’ve ever seen in college with the strongest hitters and the best metal bat technology in the world,” one coach said. “It’s not really a surprise where we’re at.”
The power surge in college baseball isn’t just creating highlight-reel home runs—it’s raising serious safety concerns.
With exit velocities soaring to and even exceeding levels seen in MLB, fielders at the college level are now being put in a daunting situation. College defenders, the majority of whom lack the elite skills and reflexes of their MLB counterparts, are forced to react at breakneck speeds to balls traveling at extraordinary velocities.
While the NCAA has yet to directly address these dangers, it has made it clear that a ban on the defensive shift is not on the table, which is as much a move for safety as it is for game strategy.
Coaches feel the NCAA needs to do more.
“Yeah, it’s concerning,” a Power 4 coach said. “It’s getting out of control. We’re seeing games where both teams are scoring in double digits with multiple ridiculous home runs ,and quite honestly, it’s a danger. What’s a freshman corner infielder supposed to do when 118 (mph) gets lined at his head? Or the pitcher? I get that players are getting better, and that’s not an issue, obviously. We don’t need to slow them down. But there’s got to be a way to get this under control. Someone is going to get really hurt. We’re massively blowing away the top 1% of the game right now in exit velocity. Scary, man. Really scary.”
It’s not quite clear how best to solve it.
Some coaches who spoke about the matter with BA following Division I opening weekend suggested that the NCAA re-adopt raised-seam baseballs to decrease aerodynamics like in 2014, a potential counterweight for increasing raw power at the plate and velocity on the mound. Others pointed to what is more widely viewed as the path of least resistance: changing the bats.
Wood bats are unlikely to be adopted by the NCAA, as they’re too expensive for a significant chunk of the Division I field. But stricter regulations for metal bats would come at no cost and could help.
The current regulations, which require the metal bats to have “wood-like performance” are seemingly too broad.
“The limit is pretty low to be wood-like performance,” Washington State University sport science assistant director Nick Smith told BA in 2023. “What we have seen with BBCOR, manufacturers are making bats that are right up against the limit. What they are doing now is making the sweet spot bigger and maybe aligning those pieces better. But the BBCOR number we report, it has been close to the limit (since the beginning).”
As college baseball barrels into this new era of power, the NCAA faces a growing dilemma.
What was intended as a modest change to revive offense has exploded into a game of raw, uncontrollable force. The combination of rising exit velocities and the increasing danger to fielders demands attention. Coaches, players and even administrators recognize that the sport’s evolution has pushed past the line of safety, and the question remains: How far should the game go before something is done to rein it in?
The path forward is unclear, but the urgency could be mounting. Whether it’s altering the aerodynamics of the baseball again, regulating the technology behind metal bats or finding another solution, many coaches agree that something must change.
College baseball can’t continue to balance excitement and safety with such volatility. As the game grows more thrilling, it risks becoming too dangerous for those playing it—something the NCAA can no longer afford to ignore.
For as exciting as 2025’s opening weekend was, it clearly illuminated that issue.
“There are players who are surprising themselves with how hard they’re hitting the ball or how far a home run goes,” a coach said. “It just doesn’t make much sense that our kids are hitting the ball harder than the best players in our sport. Nobody is arguing that college players aren’t talented, but nobody is trying to suggest they’re better than the guys we know to be the best in the game. It’s probably time to take a look at that.”
