Bubba Chandler, Coby Mayo Headline 10 Statcast Standouts (May 5)
Image credit: Bubba Chandler (Photo by Mike Carlson/MLB Photos via Getty Images)
Every Monday morning, we’ll highlight 10 players who stood out to us based on their underlying Statcast metrics. Data will usually be through Saturday of that week, but may include some data from Sunday games. These are not full scouting reports, but often serve as good early indicators of prospects who might be ready to break out or are demonstrating MLB-ready skills.
Last week, we marveled at the Statcast data for Roman Anthony and Bryce Rainer, as well as several other Top 100 Prospects types. This week we’ll discuss:
- A deep dive on baseball’s best pitching prospect
- The tweaks Coby Mayo has made
- A titan of a pitching prospect
- Should Zebby Matthew’s adjust his fastball locations?
- A Rays prospect who can really mash
- An early look at Samuel Basallo’s jaw-dropping data
- An electric arm waiting in the wings for the Giants
- A pair of Mets hitters in the lower minors
10 Statcast Standouts
Bubba Chandler, RHP, Pirates
The Pirates have been patient with Chandler, who, according to this writer, is the clear-cut best pitching prospect in the minors. We’ll start with Chandler’s surface-level results and then do a deep dive into his arsenal and approach, with the help of some new visuals that will show what Chandler needs to do to maximize his top-shelf stuff.
Chandler’s surface stats are exactly what you’d expect from the best pitching prospect in the minors:
| Metric | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| IP | 39.1 | 25.1 |
| K | 54 | 36 |
| ERA | 1.83 | 1.42 |
| FIP | 2.78 | 2.25 |
| K% | 34% | 39.6% |
| BB% | 9.4% | 7.7% |
With the caveat that Chandler is putting up these numbers against Triple-A batters, his K% would rank first overall among starters in baseball, slightly ahead of Edwin Diaz. That’s only the tip of the iceberg, as Chandler’s raw stuff might be among the best in all of baseball.
Much like Jacob deGrom and teammate Jared Jones, Chandler has the classic pronator arsenal: fastball, changeup, gyro slider and curveball.
In the chart above, the filled bubbles indicated whiffs are for each pitch, and the dotted vertical line shows how much ride a pitcher is expected to get given his arm slot. Right away, we can tell just how good Chandler’s fastball is. Fastball quality is easy to measure, as, generally speaking, you want two things: velocity and vertical ride. Chandler’s fastball has plus-plus velo at 98.2 mph, which is comfortably below his max of 101. He also gets plus-plus ride, generating over two inches more than what a pitcher would typically get from his arm angle.
According to StuffPro, Chandler’s fastball grades out at at a spectacular 1.4 to 1.5 runs/100 better than average. SMOKE, which measures fastball quality by quantifying the value of velocity and vertical ride, has a similar measure. SMOKE shows just how consistently excellent Chandler’s fastball has been all season:
Stuff is only a small part of the story. The above chart shows where in the zone (or out of the zone) Chandler’s fastball is getting whiffs. We can see quite clearly that he needs to locate in the upper half of the zone to get swing and miss, and when he induces swings above the zone, it’s pretty much game over for Triple-A batters.
The above chart shows where batters are swinging at Chandler’s fastball. Pitches in the lower third will often be taken for a called strike if they land in the zone. He’s also enticing hitters to swing at the high fastball, especially against righties. This suggests he can steal strikes by locating a fastball at the bottom of the zone or blow one by a batter at the top.
Let’s talk about the changeup. StuffPro gives it another plus-plus grade at 1.1 runs/100 pitches better than average. You’ll notice on the arsenal chart that most of the whiffs occur when he gets close to 20 inches of horizontal movement. Generally, you want a changeup to have as much horizontal movement and depth as possible and to exhibit seam-shifted wake movement. It’s more nuanced than that, as there are major dependencies on arsenal interactions, however if you can tick those boxes and have a 98 mph fastball, your changeup will likely grade out quite well.
This season, Chandler’s changeup is getting whiffs on about 30% of swings against both righties and lefties. Let’s take a look at how Chandler is deploying the changeup:
We see much higher usage against lefties, which is expected given that Chandler is a righty. Against lefties, he’s not inducing much chase (25%), however, both righties and lefties are rolling over the pitch, with average launch angles of -8.6 degrees against lefties and -16 degrees against righties. This is likely due to his almost seven inches of seam-induced vertical drop on the pitch, as well as batters being early on the swing trying to protect against 98 mph of velo. This is why Chandler is comfortable throwing it in the zone, as he’ll likely induce weak contact. StuffPro backs this up, projecting the pitch to be a net positive for Chandler—even if the batter puts the ball in play.
If Chandler wants a whiff with the pitch against righties, it looks like he’ll need to bury it down in the zone. That said, we’re talking a very small sample of pitches, so we should be wary of drawing too many conclusions. The changeup is his primary secondary against lefties, as he’s comfortable throwing it for strikes, given the contact management profile.
Chandler’s slider is extremely deceptive, especially against lefties.
Chandler’s swing rates on the slider are 76% against lefties and 47% against righties, and it’s easy to see that batters aren’t just swinging at the hanging ones. In fact, against righties, he’s stealing strikes at the top of the zone and getting chases 45.5% of the time. Much like the changeup, he’s getting negative launch angles against both righties and lefties, suggesting batters aren’t getting the barrel on the pitch even when they make contact. The pitch is a true bullet slider at 88 mph, lending plenty of confidence that it will play well at the major league level. However, he does throw it in the heart of the zone a lot, which he might not get away with as much when gets the call up.
One of the underrated aspects of a curveball is the ability to steal strikes with the pitch, even when it’s thrown in the heart of the zone. In the chart above, we see that Chandler can drop a curveball almost anywhere in the top half of the zone and get a called strike. Batters are so geared up for his heater that they’ll often just let the curve go.
I’ll leave you with one final chart indicating where Chandler is getting whiffs on his various pitches. The data suggests that, if he needs a swing and miss, Chandler needs the fastball up, the slider down, curveball down and the changeup down to righties.
Again, I believe Chandler is clearly the best pitching prospect in the minors. He combines top-shelf raw stuff with excellent command and an athletic delivery while pitching well below his max. In fact, I believe he even has a chance to be a little better than his future teammate, Paul Skenes.
Coby Mayo, 3B, Orioles
Mayo is getting another well-earned shot at a big league role with the Orioles. Let’s take a look at his 2024 Triple-A data:
Mayo’s 2024 showed massive power potential with solid gold power metrics. Combining 19-degree launch angles with 60 to 65-grade raw power is a recipe for at least 30 home runs, if not more. But there were some holes, specifically the zone contact rates, which were below average overall and only slightly above-average against the fastball. Zone contact against the fastball is a really important metric, as a batter needs to be able to withstand MLB-quality heaters to succeed in the majors.
We’re happy to report that Mayo came back strong and is now making a lot more contact in the zone:
He’s maintained his plus-plus contact quality metrics, with a likely small sample blip on the fly ball data. Most importantly, the zone contact rates on fastballs, sinkers and cutters took a huge leap, sitting close to perfect in April and pushing his overall zone contact rate to a very good 87.5%. He still has a hole in his swing when he chases non-fastballs, but Mayo’s done a good job spitting on those pitches at Triple-A. He’ll likely need some time to adjust to MLB pitching, but the raw tools are there for a high-average power hitter who should bat in the heart of the Orioles’ lineup for years to come.
Titan Hayes, RHP, Phillies
Pitch classifications on Class A data are often not as clean as in they are in Triple-A and MLB, but we can parse through that by looking at arsenal charts. In the chart above, Hayes’ sinker is likely just a regular four-seam fastball, which is an above-average pitch entirely because of its velocity (averaging 97 mph and almost touching 100). The cutter at 88 mph or so is likely a gyro slider, which should pair well with the fastball. Hayes also looks like he has a sweeper, which touches 20 inches of sweep and gets plenty of seam-shifted wake movement. It’s an interesting arsenal that might prove useful in a bullpen role.
Zebby Matthews, RHP, Twins
Matthews has a very aesthetically pleasing arsenal, with five distinct pitches. He’s made massive strides in fastball quality, adding 1.5 mph in velocity and an inch of ride, and it now grades out close to Bubba Chandler’s from a raw stuff perspective.
He absolutely fills the zone with the pitch, but he’s not exactly painting:
And we also see that it’s not a swing-and-miss pitch for him, especially when he throws it in the zone vs. lefties:
I’d love to see Matthews target the pitch higher in the zone. At present, I think his current approach looks more control-over-command, and he’ll likely run into a lot of hard contact at the major league level.
Matthews’ slider is probably his best pitch, and here we see he’s commanding it exceptionally well:
When Matthews gets his slider down and away to righties, they can’t touch it. It’s where he’s clearly targeting the pitch, and it’s generating whiffs on almost a quarter of the pitches he throws. He might also be better served using it more against lefties.
Matthews’ cutter isn’t a great pitch on its own. However, it plays an important role as a bridge between his fastball and slider, helping to mask both. The changeup is a useful weapon against lefties, but it doesn’t have deceptive movement needed to be used confidently against same-handed batters. Matthews mixes in his curveball against righties only, but he isn’t trying to steal strike with the pitch.
Bob Seymour, 1B, Rays
The blast above was clocked at an epic 117.9 mph off the bat. That’s serious juice, bordering on 80-grade raw power.
Seymour is still unlikely to carve out a meaningful major league role with such poor contact metrics, but he can really mash when he does connect.
Samuel Basallo, C, Orioles
If you’ve read this far, I have a treat for you: Basallo’s absolutely gobsmacking, jaw-dropping, eye-opening Triple-A data in the early going of 2025
We’re talking about a player with 70 to 75-grade game power whose best contact comes in the air, all as a 20-year-old in Triple-A. Basallo pairs that power with tons of contact in the zone, but his overall contact rate is below average due to a poor overall approach. I’ll likely headline with Basallo in a few weeks when we have hopefully enough data to do a deep dive on his swing decisions. That’s assuming, of course, the Orioles don’t call him up before then.
Paul Gervase, RHP, Rays
Gervase’s bread-and-butter pitch is his 93 mph fastball. It gets exceptional ride given his arm slot, giving it a pure stuff grade that’s about 0.8 runs/100 pitches better than average. What pops out is how his pitches all have small velocity and movement bands compared to each other, making it difficult for batters to have a lot of confidence when guessing which pitch type they are seeing. The results haven’t been there in the early going, but I think this is an arsenal that will play at the major league level, especially against righties.
Joel Peguero, RHP, Giants
Peguero’s fastball is not a very good pitch, despite the elite 99 mph average velocity. His sinker, on the other hand, is quite good, and he might be better served focusing his efforts on refining that pitch and mixing in the four-seam more sparingly. The slider/sweeper is deadly and should make Peguero an absolute weapon out of the bullpen against righties.
Jeremy Rodriguez, SS, Mets
The top-line power metrics for Rodriguez are quite poor. However, if we look at his maximum EV of 108.6 mph, it provides us a glimpse of what he’s capable of. He’s also connected on a 107.6 exit velo, so we can have some measure of confidence that he might reach fringe-average power. With a player this age who hasn’t filled out physically yet, it’s hard to project where the power will end up. If he can push to 110 mph as he grows and matures, Rodriguez has a realistic pathway to useable major league power.
Where Rodriguez really shines is in the contact department, as he boasts excellent contact rates and a patient approach. We’ll be watching how the power develops, as it will need to improve the most for Rodriguez to reach his potential.
A.J. Ewing, OF, Mets
Geoff Pontes discussed Ewing last week as an early standout in 2025. Let’s dig deeper into his metrics:
This is the kind of profile I have a ton of confidence projecting as a potential major league bat. It’s average raw power with plus-plus contact and plus-plus swing decisions. He’s a little older than some of the bigger names in High-A, but you couldn’t ask for better contact and discipline metrics. It’s no surprise the Mets promoted Ewing to Brooklyn this week, and I can see him flying through the minors:
