Ask BA: Are Prep Arms Too Risky?

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Q: Should GMs look at track record with preps arms who were taken early in previous drafts as a reason to pass on them this June?

Johnny Armstrong
Orange, Texas
@joh12nny

BA:
One of the biggest strengths of this year’s draft class is the impressive top-end talent and depth of the high school pitching. And that’s a worry of sorts for scouting directors and general managers because there is a belief that picking a high school pitcher near the top of the draft is a very risky gambit.

It’s an understandable concern. High school pitchers taken in the first round in recent years have had a pretty rocky road, especially when it comes to health.

Of the 15 high school pitchers who were drafted and signed in the top 20 picks since 2010, nine have had a serious injury. Seven have had Tommy John surgery.

And some of the pitchers who were considered exceptional prospects coming out of high school–Dylan Bundy and Archie Bradley to name two–have struggled to live up to those lofty expectations as pros. Bundy’s scouting report coming out of high school was exceptional–a 94-97 mph fastball, a plus curveball and a plus cutter. Bradley’s scouting report was nearly as impressive. He mixed a high-90s fastball and a big breaking curveball with excellent athleticism–he could have played football at Oklahoma.

In Bundy’s case, injuries (and his initial major league contract, which ate up his options so quickly) have forced him to move to the bullpen. Injuries and control issues have also slowed Bradley’s ascent.

But here’s something you may have missed–that risk is already significantly factored into the picks and it has been for several years. From 2010-2015, there have been an average of 3.3 high school pitchers taken in the top 20 picks of the draft. From 2000-2009, there were an average of 4.2 high school pitchers selected in the top 20 picks. This decade there have never been more than four high school pitchers taken in the top 20 picks. In the previous decade, there were five or more high school pitchers taken in the Top 20 picks on five different occasions.

Obviously talent ebbs and flows from year to year, so some of the decrease could potentially be explained by differences in draft classes, but that runs counter to what scouts have said about recent classes. The 2014 and the 2011 classes were considered impressive groups of high school arms. The better explanation is that teams are hesitant to draft high school arms at the top of the draft unless they are seen as exceptional talents. As we ask for feedback on our Baseball America draft rankings, scouts regularly say that the high school pitchers are likely to be picked lower than everyone expects when the draft arrives. They might be some of the best talents in the draft, but when it comes to a Top 10 pick, it’s often more comfortable to pick a college pitcher or hitter who is closer to the big leagues.

High School Pitchers Taken In The Top 20 Picks In The 21st Century

2015 (2): LHP Kolby Allard (Pick No. 14), LHP Brady Aiken (17).

2014 (4): LHP Brady Aiken (1), RHP Tyler Kolek (2), LHP Kodi Medeiros (12), RHP Touki Toussaint (16).

2013 (4): RHP Kohl Stewart (4), LHP Trey Ball (7), RHP Phil Bickford (10).

2012 (3): LHP Max Fried (7), RHP Nick Travieso (14), RHP Lucas Giolito (16)

2011 (3): RHP Dylan Bundy (4), RHP Archie Bradley (7), RHP Jose Fernandez (14)

2010 (4): RHP Jameson Taillon (2), RHP Karsten Whitson (9), RHP Dylan Covey (14), RHP Mike Foltynewicz (19).

2009 (7): RHP Matt Hobgood (5), RHP Zack Wheeler (6), RHP Jacob Turner (9), LHP Tyler Matzek (11), LHP Matt Purke (14), LHP Chad James (18), RHP Shelby Miller (19)

2008 (1): RHP Ethan Martin (15)

2007 (5): RHP Jarrod Parker (9), LHP Madison Bumgarner (10), RHP Phillippe Aumont (11), RHP Blake Beavan (17), Chris Withrow (20)

2006 (4): LHP Clayton Kershaw (7), LHP Kasey Kiker (12), RHP Jeremy Jeffress (16), RHP Kyle Drabek (18)

2005 (2): RHP Chris Volstad (16), LHP Mark Pawelek (20)

2004 (3): RHP Mark Rogers (5), RHP Homer Bailey (7), LHP Scott Elbert (17)

2003 (2): LHP John Danks (9), RHP Jeff Allison (16)

2002 (6): RHP Chris Gruler (3), LHP Adam Loewen (4), RHP Clint Everts (5), RHP Zack Greinke (6), LHP Scott Kazmir (15), LHP Cole Hamels (17)

2001 (6): RHP Gavin Floyd (6), RHP Colt Griffin (9), RHP MIke Jones (12), RHP Kris Honel (16), RHP Dan Denham (17), Jeremy Sowers (20)

2000 (6): LHP Mike Stodolka (4), RHP Matt Harrington (7), RHP Matt Wheatland (8), LHP Mark Phillips (9), LHP Joe Torres (10), LHP Sean Burnett (19)