8 MLB Draft Prospects Who Could Be The No. 1 Overall Pick In 2025

Jamie Arnold, LHP, Florida State

The Quick Case For: He’s the best near-proximity arm in the class

Despite strong seasons and up-the-board movement from college pitchers like Kyson Witherspoon, Liam Doyle and Kade Anderson, Arnold seems to remain in a class of his own as the top college pitcher in the land. Having entered the year in a neck-and-neck shootout with UC Santa Barbara righthander Tyler Bremner, Arnold has maintained his draft stock with strong performance through eight starts while Bremner has slid a bit.

If the Nationals want to add a pitcher and don’t want to wait, Arnold seems like the clear choice. 

He has a plus fastball in the 93-95 mph range that has been up to 98 with excellent life from a unique low slot. He matches the fastball with a mid-80s slider that is a no-doubt plus offering and currently running a 45% miss rate. He’s doubled his changeup usage this spring, and that mid-80s secondary looks like it could give him a third pitch with an above-average grade. 

Arnold ties it all together with control that has been above-average at his best. Even with some strike-throwing regression in 2025, he should be more than enough control to profile as a starter. He’s now done it for multiple seasons at a high level in the ACC and—unlike many college pitchers these days—can also claim a bit of a summer track record after being one of Team USA’s best arms last summer. 

Ethan Holliday, SS, Stillwater (Okla.) HS

The Quick Case For: His power and patience provides huge offensive upside

Holliday stands as the top-ranked high school hitter in the class—a recognition he’s had for years as a standout underclassmen who was physically advanced as a freshman at Stillwater High.

He’s viewed as one of the best pure hitters in the class as well as one of the more impactful. Holliday’s huge raw power gives him 30+ home run upside. While that power does come with some swing-and-miss tendencies, he has always offset those by way of a standout batting eye. Holliday won’t expand the zone and is happy to take walks when opposing players pitch around him. Through 24 tournament games with Perfect Game in 2024, Holliday posted a 1.168 OPS with a 36.5% walk rate.

Holliday’s power and on-base ability provide more offensive upside and impact potential than any hitter in the high school class. Like other high-end prep hitters before him, scouts think he could move quickly in pro ball. Scouting directors voted him as the high school player closest to the majors in the class. 

If the goal is to get an impact, middle-of-the-lineup hitter with the first-overall pick, Holliday could be the player.

Seth Hernandez, RHP, Corona (Calif.) HS

The Quick Case For: He offers more frontline rotation upside than any other arm in the class

Picking Hernandez first overall would be a bold choice and a declaration that the Nationals simply want to get the most pure upside they can. No pitcher in this class has the same upside potential Hernandez provides—it’s a chance to get an ace-caliber arm in the system. 

Hernandez is a highly athletic pitcher with an elite pitcher’s frame at 6-foot-4, 195 pounds and has been the best pitching prospect in his class for years now. He’s got a fastball that’s routinely up to 95 mph and has touched 100 on multiple occasions. His changeup is a lethal secondary that parachutes out of his hand with consistency and control. It’s a clear double-plus secondary that rivals any changeup in this year’s class.

On top of the fastball/changeup combo, Hernandez can spin his breaking ball in the 2,600 rpm range and has both a spike-curve and slider that could be at least above-average pitches with more refinement. 

While there’s no projection necessary for Hernandez in terms of velocity and a present out-pitch, there are also reasons to be excited for his future development. His frame has plenty of room to add more strength, and he’s still spending time as a hitter at Corona High. Once he’s focused on pitching full time, he could make a jump like former two-way arms such as Hunter Greene, Jackson Jobe and Bubba Chandler. 

Aiva Arquette, SS, Oregon State

The Quick Case For: He has huge tools to go with college performance at a premium position

Let’s say the Nationals want to hunt some upside without taking on an extreme amount of risk. Enter Arquette, a college hitter with a track record who also boasts rare tools and athleticism at an up-the-middle defensive position.

There are many ways Arquette could fall short at specific tool projections and still provide value. He’s not quite able to handle shortstop in the pro game? Slide him over to third where his athleticism and arm strength can still be a real asset. His pure hitting ability hasn’t actually improved as much as his 2025 draft season might indicate? He has the sort of bat speed and power to be a valuable offensive player with a below-average hit tool.

In some ways, Arquette is the best of both worlds. He has the tools, athleticism and projectable body typically only found in the high school demographic while also providing the comfort—and data—that comes with three years of college performance against strong competition.

Moving from Washington to Oregon State, Arquette has had a standout platform season. He’s moved to shortstop and looked the part at the position while cutting his strikeout rate from 17.5% to 15.7% and nearly doubling his walk rate from 7.4% to 13.5%.

Marek Houston, SS, Wake Forest

The Quick Case For: He’s the safest college-hitting profile in the class

What if the Nationals want to be super risk averse this year? 

Throw out the pitchers. They break and TINSTAAPP and all that. Throw out the high school players altogether. Too much projection and too much of a wait time involved there.

Now that we’re down to only college hitters, let’s examine Houston’s case. He’s the best defensive shortstop in the college class and a confident lock to stick at the position at the next level and provide reliable, plus defense. He has been the starter at Wake Forest since he first stepped on campus as a freshman in 2023. Some scouts have said he’s the best defender they’ve seen in college in at least five years.

But he’s not just a glove. Houston has also got one of the more difficult offensive skills to teach: contact ability. He owns an 84% overall contact rate and 91% in-zone contact rate with Wake Forest. After a poor offensive season in 2023, Houston has hit well over .300 in back-to-back years and has walked as much as he’s struck out. 

Houston lacks prototypical 1-1 impact, but he is trending in the right direction in the power department. He has already hit a single-season best 10 home runs this spring, with noticeable more physicality after a good offseason. In some ways, Houston’s profile is like a less extreme Jacob Wilson. His contact skills aren’t 80-grade like Wilson’s, but they could be plus, and he brings more physicality, a louder fielding tool and performance vs. better college competition. 

Jace LaViolette, OF, Texas A&M

The Quick Case For: He has an exciting power/tools combo with lengthy SEC track record 

When in doubt, go with the SEC performer with tools and a track record of doing it. 

Proponents of LaViolette have a fairly simple case to make: It’s a muddled class, and LaViolette is the only SEC player in the conversation who has put up huge numbers for three straight years now. 

After a slow start to the season, LaViolette has surged throughout conference play. Through 39 games, his 2025 draft season looks every bit the part of what his expectations were entering the year—if not better:

Year	G	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	HR	K%	BB%
2023	64	0.287	0.414	0.632	1.047	21	26.80%	17.10%
2024	68	0.305	0.449	0.726	1.175	29	24.30%	19.20%
2025	39	0.307	0.468	0.693	1.161	15	18.80%	22.60%

It’s not just numbers though. LaViolette’s unique toolset and athleticism are what put him in the conversation in the first place. He still pairs excellent raw power with speed that is uncommon from a 6-foot-6, 230-pound center fielder. 

The center field piece is not something to forget about either. He has a real chance to stick at the position in pro ball while also providing middle-of-the-lineup impact. 

So, ultimately, what are we talking about here? It’s a lefthanded-hitting SEC center fielder with a pro body, 30+ home run upside and tons of on-base ability. 

Billy Carlson, SS, Corona (Calif.) HS

The Quick Case For: An impact defender at a premium position with standout contact skills

If there are real questions about all the hitters in the class, why not play the profile game and pick a sure-fire, high-end shortstop with bat-to-ball skills you can build on? 

If none of the hitters at the top of this year’s class live up to their midtier offensive projections, Carlson will be the player who can still provide solid big league value. That’s because he’s a no-doubt shortstop who most in the industry see as at least a 60-grade defender. In fact, many view him as the best defender in the class and a potential Gold Glove winner. 

Carlson has smooth, easy and fluid actions in the infield with a rocket of an arm that also earns 70 grade evals. While he’s more of an average straight line runner who doesn’t have elite range, his arm and defensive instincts should allow his range to play up. The same is true of Carlson on the bases, where he is a heady runner and should offer more baserunning value than his raw speed might indicate. 

He’s not only a glove either. Those highest on Carlson also praise his natural contact ability, bat speed and plate discipline. He can backspin the ball well to the opposite field and has the sort of frame that should continue to pack on a bit more strength and potentially lead to solid power as well—though this aspect of his game does require some projection. 

Eli Willits, SS, Fort Cobb-Broxton (Okla.) HS

The Quick Case For: He’s the most well-rounded prospect in the class

A critique of this year’s top-end players is that each have fairly clear and obvious flaws in their games. That’s less of an issue for Willits, who I would say is the most well-rounded prospect in the class. 

There are players with more power, players with better gloves, players with more pure athleticism or physicality and players with better speed. But Willits has a solid blend of everything with no clear flaw I can find to point out in his game. 

He’s a strong athlete and plus runner who has the tools to stick at shortstop and be a good defender at the position. He’s a true switch-hitter in a class that doesn’t have many of them with a clean swing and impressive bat speed from both sides of the plate. He hit at a strong clip throughout the summer showcase circuit, showing strong contact skills, a good understanding of the zone and performance vs. 90+ mph velocity. 

Scouting directors voted him as the best prep athlete in the class among position players. He can also boast big league bloodlines—his dad, Reggie, played six years with the Angels—and he’ll be only 17.6 on draft day, which is younger than any player we currently have ranked in this year’s class. If he does go 1-1, he’ll top Tim Foli (Mets, 1968), Ken Griffey Jr. (Mariners, 1987) and Bryce Harper (Nationals, 2010) to become the youngest No. 1 overall player ever drafted.

You can find more pure upside or more overall safety with other players, but perhaps no one offers as much in one package as Willits does.