4 College Pitchers With Interesting Pitch Data In The 2025 MLB Draft Class
Image credit: J.D. Thompson (Photo by John Byrum/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
A few years ago I did a series where I dug into the arsenals, command and mechanics of draft-eligible college arms to determine how they compare to many of the top prospects in the game.
Top 100 College Draft Prospects For 2025
Baseball America presents its updated ranking of the top draft-eligible college players for 2025.
This year, I reached out to Baseball America draft aficionado, Carlos Collazo, and asked him to nominate four pitchers he found to be the most interesting among the college class. I’m focusing on college pitchers because we have more available video, stats and sourced TrackMan data for them than we do for high school pitchers.
It’s also become clear in recent years that college pitchers are further along in their development. Cutting your teeth as a starter in college baseball portends well for success as a professional.
JD Thompson, LHP, Vanderbilt
Thompson, who ranks 59th in our Top 200 Draft Prospects, is an undersized lefthander with a dynamic operation that allows him to move down the mound and create a low release height from his three-quarters delivery. It’s a short arm action, though it’s not the cleanest arm swing. Thompson mixes four pitches in a four-seam fastball, curveball, changeup and slider. While he doesn’t get a tremendous amount of extension—he averages just over six feet—Thompson’s shorter stature and moderately-low arm slot allows him to create a flatter plane of approach to the plate. It’s not outlier, but he does create 17-18 inches of induced vertical break on average with between 10-12 inches of armside run.
The combination of movement on his fastball from the left side allows the pitch to play above his velocity, as he sits 91-93 mph on average and tops out at 95. Batters didn’t do much damage against the pitch in 2024, hitting .239/.317/.327 against it with a 20% swinging strike rate.
Thompson’s arsenal plays off of his fastball, as none of his secondaries stand out as being any better than average at the moment. His slider is his least-thrown secondary, but it might be the pitch that projects most strongly as a professional. The slider sits 79-80 mph with moderate sweep and less drop than his curveball, which is an effective pitch against college hitters but doesn’t miss many bats and was hit hard at times. The curve sits 75-76 mph with average drop and above-average sweep. Thompson’s changeup played well in 2024, as batters hit .188/.278/.250 against it between regular season play and his time in the Cape Cod League. The pitch lacks vertical separation off of the fastball, however, and features less than two degrees of VAA, which is often a key trait in successful changeups in professional baseball.
Thompson is an interesting lefthander with good fastball traits and the makings of a four-pitch mix. Development of his secondaries will dictate how successful he will be as a pro.
AJ Russell, RHP, Tennessee
The 6-foot-6 righthander looked like he might pitch his way to the top of the draft class early in the 2024 season, however, Russell was injured in late March and had Tommy John Surgery in June. Russell is unlikely to pitch until the second half of the season if he pitches at all this spring, but he still presents an interesting buy-low opportunity for clubs willing to take a risk on an injured pitcher.
When on the mound, Russell is dynamic. He mixes a low-release-height two-seam fastball featuring a tremendous amount of armside run with a low-80s slider, a mid-70s curveball and a changeup. Russell’s fastball is unique. His 4-foot-9 release height means the pitch—which is likely a four-seamer—is categorized as a two-seamer on most ball-tracking devices. The pitch sits 93-95 mph and touches 98 at peak with 17-18 inches of armside run. His 4.24 degree vertical approach angle is outlier, particularly for his fastball’s movement profile.
Russell’s secondaries are less impressive. He features a low-80s slider with moderate sweep, which is his primary pitch off the fastball. He also mixes in a changeup and curveball, but each pitch was only thrown around a dozen times in 2024.
How Russell recovers from his injury and what his command and stuff look like upon his return will dictate how successful he can be as a professional. His fastball shape, velocity and release traits are outlier enough to provide a higher ceiling than just about any pitcher in this year’s draft.
Kade Anderson, LHP, LSU
Anderson is a draft-eligible sophomore who spent time bouncing between the bullpen and rotation for the Tigers in 2024. Expected to take on the Friday night role in 2025, Anderson delivers the ball from a high three-quarters arm slot, with a clean arm swing and very repeatable mechanics.
In 2024, Anderson sat 92-93 mph and touched 96 at peak with well above-average induced vertical break (18-20 inches on average) with some cut. Anderson mixes a curveball and changeup as his primary secondaries. He doesn’t miss a ton of bats with either his fastball or curveball, but with added power on either pitch, he could see his whiff numbers rise. Anderson’s changeup appears to be his best secondary and it features the highest swinging strike rate of his pitch mix. He generates good vertical separation off of his fastball, which is an important trait for success as a professional. Anderson used his curveball significantly more in 2024, and the pitch generated more than 15 inches of drop and over a foot of sweep. The pitch only generated swinging strikes at 10% rate in 2024, however, which is well below his raw spin (2800+ rpm on average) and movement.
Anderson has the ability to back spin his four-seam efficiently while showing feel for spin. He has the potential to take a big step forward in 2025 due to his unique pitch characteristics.
Joe Ariola, LHP, Wake Forest
After two seasons pitching out of the Wake Forest bullpen, Ariola is looking to build off of a solid summer in the Cape Cod League in 2024. An average-sized lefthander, Ariola mixes a four-seam fastball, an upper-70s curveball, a mid-80s slider and an upper-80s cutter. He delivers the ball from a high three-quarters arm slot with some trunk tilt that sees him finish falling to the third base side of the rubber. While there’s some deception to Ariola’s operation, there’s also more than a moderate amount of effort.
Ariola shows the ability to generate above-average ride on his four-seam fastball, which sits 92-94 mph, and touches 94 at peak with slight cut. His secondaries consist of a trio of breaking ball shapes in his upper-70s curveball that averages negative 20-21 inches of induced vertical break and spin rates in the 2600-2700 rpm range. Ariola’s slider is a classic slider with moderate sweep sitting 83-85. He also mixes in a cutter at 86-88 with classic cutter shape. Ariola has struggled to consistently throw strikes, but if he can take a step forward with his command, he has the stuff to see his profile take a step forward in 2025.
