Regardless of status, every player has something to prove in 2025. And that’s especially true for prospects honing their craft as they close in on the majors. But there are certain players in each organization for whom the upcoming season feels like a make-or-break campaign. 

For this exercise, we chose one prospect from each organization whose future feels especially uncertain or pivotal. These are the prospects who need a strong 2025 season to either reestablish or reinforce their trajectory.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Druw Jones, OF

Jones was the second overall pick in 2022 and has yet to reach High-A because of injuries, including a torn labrum in his left shoulder, as well as quad and hamstring maladies. The most important part of his return to Low-A last year was consistent health, but he was also far more impactful than his first turn at the level. He parses balls and strikes well, still shows impressive bat speed and his defensive tools remain intact in center. But those more skeptical see a player who struggles to pull the ball or turn his tool set into usable game power because of his swing. Jones is far from the only bat at the top of the 2022 class to struggle in pro ball, but he’s the most prominent example. To keep his momentum going in 2025, his bat must take another step forward, especially as his development remains slower than most had envisioned.

Athletics

Daniel Susac, C

Susac is another 2022 bat in the midst of an uneven pro career. So far, he has paired modest surface-level production with alarming swing decisions, especially against breaking stuff. Susac chased more than 40% of the time and paired it with 4.3% walk rate in Double-A last year. He manages to maintain decent batting averages because of his bat-to-ball ability, but his aggressive approach and struggles pulling the ball in the air invite questions about how his contact quality will hold up against major league pitching. Susac will need to show more impact because his defense and receiving are average at best. This is a critical season for the 23-year-old, especially considering how quickly the Athletics’ subsequent two first-round picks, Jacob Wilson and Nick Kurtz, have moved through the system. 

Atlanta Braves

Hurston Waldrep, RHP

The Braves have used five consecutive first-round picks on pitchers, which makes sense because their loaded lineup is locked in for a long time. Waldrep, the No. 24 pick in 2023, reached the majors last year, but his erratic control limited him to just two ineffective starts. Waldrep’s mid-90s fastball plays down because of pedestrian shape and doesn’t elicit many whiffs. His best pitch is a mid-80s splitter thrown with great arm speed, but inconsistent command of his secondaries held him back in 2024. He’s reportedly working on reintroducing a curveball this spring. Both Waldrep and fellow righty AJ Smith-Shawver are walking the starter vs. reliever tightrope. Getting better strikes out of Waldrep—and keeping him on a starter track—would go a long way for a rotation that has some question marks at the end. 

Baltimore Orioles

Heston Kjerstad, OF

Kjerstad has nothing left to prove in the upper minors. He hit 16 homers in 56 games for Triple-A Norfolk last year with a 152 wRC+. He even fared well in a limited, 39-game showing in the majors, but a crowded big league roster and lengthy recovery from a concussion kept Kjerstad from settling into a consistent role. Despite bringing in Tyler O’Neill and Ramon Laureano this winter and still carrying Ryan O’Hearn on the roster, Orioles GM Mike Elias said Kjerstad has positioned himself for an extended look in the majors this spring. Now, the 26-year-old and No. 2 pick in the 2020 draft needs to take advantage. 

Boston Red Sox

Miguel Bleis, OF

Marcelo Mayer is a defensible (and perhaps obvious) choice here given his health. But Mayer’s skills are quite evident—he just needs to stay on the field. The Red Sox also signed Bleis in 2021 for $1.5 million and his progression has been far more uneven. Two years ago, Bleis teased five-tool potential and superstar upside when he surged onto the Top 100 only for a left shoulder injury to stall his progress. Bleis struggled in 2024 at High-A, far too frequently failing to turn his hardest-hit contact into optimal trajectories. He needs to prove he can make enough contact to tap into his treasure trove of skills. If the Red Sox can help Bleis do so, he could reestablish himself as a premier prospect in a system on the verge of graduating Mayer, Roman Anthony and Kristian Campbell to Boston.

Chicago Cubs

Cade Horton, RHP

Horton was the second pitcher off the board at seventh overall in 2022 behind only Kumar Rocker, who made his Rangers big league debut last season. Horton had a chance to reach the majors, too, until a Grade 2 subscapularis strain in his right shoulder wrecked his season in late May. Horton lost 1.6 mph on his four-seam fastball velocity in 2024, the biggest drop of any Top 100 pitcher. Horton still has midrotation upside but now faces some considerable questions. He needs to remain healthy and prove his inconsistent changeup is a worthy third offering. Horton’s fastball-slider mix could make him a bullpen weapon for the Cubs later in the season, even if the changeup takes more time. 

Chicago White Sox

Colson Montgomery, SS

The state of Chicago’s depth chart suggests the White Sox plan to give Montgomery every chance to win the starting shortstop job. After his 2024 performance, however, whether Montgomery is ready for it remains an open question. Montgomery struck out nearly 29% of the time with Triple-A Charlotte last season and struggled with both velocity and breaking stuff. At 6-foot-3, 225 pounds, there’s also skepticism about his ability to stay at shortstop. Montgomery at least ended the year on a high note and looked more spry in the Arizona Fall League. He needs to rediscover the right mix of power and patience as he emerges as a potential cornerstone from a suddenly well-stocked White Sox farm system. 

Cincinnati Reds

Cam Collier, 3B

At times, Collier looks every bit the hitter who commanded the 10th-largest bonus ($5 million) in the 2022 draft. He hit 20 homers in his age-19 season with High-A Dayton last year and, at his best, Collier has flashed the bat speed and raw power to project as a 25-30 homer threat, provided he refines his approach. But Collier can also be very streaky. Evaluators aren’t sure he can remain at third base without starkly improving his range, noting he thickened up as the season progressed. Collier’s outlook will certainly brighten if he can stave off a move to first base. Otherwise, it’ll put even more pressure on his bat as he matures. 

Cleveland Guardians

Juan Brito, 2B

Plenty of players are on this list because injuries or backsliding performance place them at the proverbial crossroads. That’s not the case for Brito, who spent all of 2024 with Triple-A Columbus, where he slashed .256/.365/.443 with 21 homers in 144 games. The switch-hitter has a long track record of solid performance, bat-to-ball skills, a sound approach and enough versatility to play multiple positions. He fits best at second base, though, which is ominous for someone who may soon contend with 2024 first overall pick Travis Bazzana—among others—in a perpetually well-stocked Guardians middle infield. Andres Gimenez’s departure helps, but Brito would benefit from making a strong first impression in a regular role. 

Colorado Rockies

Benny Montgomery, OF

Zac Veen and Charlie Condon also fit the bill here as outfielders—or outfield adjacent in Condon’s case–with some red flags. But the 22-year-old Montgomery is our choice, mostly because he’s played just 196 games since the Rockies drafted him eighth overall in 2021. Montgomery’s latest setback was a significant left shoulder injury that ended his 2024 season in May. When healthy, Montgomery has true five-tool potential and plenty of bat speed, albeit with an unorthodox swing that leads to a ton of in-zone swing-and-miss. Staying on the field and proving his shoulder injury didn’t sap any raw power is step one. Next, Montgomery needs his contact skills to hold up against upper-minors pitching. While neither is a given based on his track record, Montgomery putting it together would be an encouraging development for a Rockies system that has struggled to develop its top picks. 

Detroit Tigers

Ty Madden, RHP

A year ago at this time, Madden appeared to be trending in the right direction. He improved his fastball angle, tightened his slider and held premium velocity deep into outings. We even wondered if he was a potential under-the-radar rookie arm. Instead, Madden got thumped to the tune of a 7.97 ERA in Triple-A Toledo, although he did continue to miss bats. Madden simply doesn’t have a huge margin for error, even despite the alterations to his pitch mix, and his fastball remains quite hittable when it leaks into the zone. The Tigers have a deep collection of homegrown arms, and Madden needs to find a way to throw more competitive strikes to reclaim his status among them. 

Houston Astros

Alonzo Tredwell, RHP

Tredwell was excellent at limiting walks in college when the Astros signed him for nearly $1.5 million as a second-rounder in 2023. Injuries were a concern then and still are entering 2025. He had just 57 Low-A innings on his ledger before a shoulder strain ended his season early in 2024. It likely impacted both his command and velocity when he did pitch. Tredwell is plenty interesting at 6-foot-8 with a well-rounded arsenal and low-90s fastball thrown with great extension, but now he has dealt with shoulder, elbow and back injuries dating back to high school and is in danger of shifting to the bullpen. 

Kansas City Royals

Frank Mozzicato, LHP

Mozzicato was the darling of Northeast area scouts during the 2021 draft cycle when the Royals drafted him seventh overall. At the time, we wrote Mozzicato had plenty of projection arrows pointing up with an 88-91 mph fastball that touched 93 with room to add more strength. The problem? Mozzicato still mostly resembles the same pitcher three years later, sitting at 89 mph in 2024 while struggling to fill out his frame. That spells potential trouble for the 21-year-old lefty who registered a 3.45 ERA with High-A Quad Cities last year but pitched timidly in and out of the zone because of inconsistent fastball command. Mozzicato’s fastball still has decent shape and scouts still like his curveball. But his longer arm action and lack of oomph dropped him to No. 18 in the Royals system entering 2025. 

Los Angeles Angels

Nelson Rada, OF

While not necessarily fair to him, Rada must prove that the Angels’ decision to race him to Double-A at 18 years old was simply an aggressive assignment—not a detrimental one. Rada was overmatched in the first half of 2024. He lacked the bat speed to hang in against upper-minors pitching, and he hit for virtually no impact while logging a 52% groundball rate. Rada is only 5-foot-8, but the ingredients are there for a hitterish, speed-oriented table-setter who makes good decisions and can one day play an advanced center field. He slashed .253/.382/.295 with 33 walks to 44 strikeouts from July 1 on last year and received an invite to big league camp. If Rada can continue to refine his approach and add more impact, he has a chance to justify the aggressive push and emerge as a legitimate leadoff option in the Angels’ long-term plans.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Maddux Bruns, LHP

Few teams develop pitching like the Dodgers, which makes Bruns’ struggles all the more vexing. Last year was already a pivotal year in his development, so it didn’t help that back and side injuries limited the 2021 first-rounder to just 28.1 innings. When healthy, Bruns has a big arsenal headlined by a mid-90s heater that carries through the zone and a mid-80s slider. Batters missed both more than 30% of the time last year. But Bruns has never thrown enough strikes, battling both his fastball command and his delivery. The 6-foot-2 lefty turns 23 in June and is running out of time to prove he can throw enough strikes and fend off what many feel is an inevitable move to the bullpen. 

Miami Marlins

Dillon Head, OF 

Noble Meyer and Robby Snelling were under consideration here. Jacob Berry hasn’t hit at all since they drafted him sixth overall in 2022. But because the Marlins are in the midst of a thorough rebuild—nearly half of their top 20 prospects were acquired by Peter Bendix in trades—we landed on Head, the best prospect in their return for Luis Arraez. Head appeared in just five games before having season-ending hip surgery, which is an eyebrow-raising injury for someone with a profile built around game-changing speed and range in center field. Head’s first step is proving he’s fully healthy. Then he’ll need to work on refining bat-to-ball skills that have been fairly inconsistent when he’s been on the field. The Marlins don’t have many close-to-the-majors bats at the top of their system. For their system to take a step forward, players like Head must show progress in 2025 and beyond. 

Milwaukee Brewers

Tyler Black, 1B/3B

The No. 33 pick in 2021, Black climbed into the Top 100 Prospects rankings thanks to his elite plate discipline and defensive versatility, though he never excelled at any one position. But the 24-year-old’s production backed up last year in Triple-A, and his brief MLB exposure yielded a 59 OPS+ and a nearly 30% strikeout rate. He also hasn’t solidified a defensive home and spent the bulk of his time at first base in 2024. Black was on the periphery of Top 100 discussions once again this winter even though his stock has dipped. It’s an unusual profile for first base, forcing him to rely even more on his pitch selection and hand-eye coordination to compensate for fringe-average power. Black hasn’t played his way to a big league role yet, and it seems he’ll have to battle with either 1B Rhys Hoskins or 3B Oliver Dunn for regular at-bats. Otherwise, he risks either a limited bench role or another year oscillating between the majors and Triple-A. 

Minnesota Twins

Diego Cartaya, C

Can a clearer path to playing time and a fresh start in a new organization reignite Cartaya? The 23-year-old catcher ranked as the top prospect in the Dodgers’ system in both 2022 and 2023, but he has yet to hit for much impact in the upper minors since then, and the Dodgers designated him for assignment this winter. Cartaya’s ample power potential and solid plate discipline often gets negated by a lengthier swing that scouts worry has slowed down a tick as he’s gotten older. Cartaya’s defense is also a bit of a lightning rod, even if the Dodgers internally felt he made strides in 2024. The Twins don’t have much organizational catching depth and Christian Vazquez likely isn’t in their plans for much longer. There’s a runway for Cartaya to rebuild his stock if he can regain some explosiveness, but he has just one minor league option left. The clock’s ticking. 

New York Mets

Drew Gilbert, OF

Gilbert was more highly regarded when the Mets dealt Justin Verlander to Houston, but Ryan Clifford (No. 6) now ranks ahead of Gilbert (No. 10) in the Mets system. A hamstring injury wrecked Gilbert’s first full season with the Mets,and he didn’t look particularly explosive—or on time at the plate—once he returned in the second half. It’s tough to find a skill that Gilbert can hang his hat on. When healthy, he shows a solid-average mix of hitting ability, power and outfield defense. It’s unclear whether Gilbert can stick in center field, which clouds his most obvious path to New York. With Juan Soto and Brandon Nimmo entrenched on the corners, opportunity presents itself up the middle. This is a big season for Gilbert to prove his skill set is dynamic enough to push for outfield playing time and avoid being pigeon-holed into more of a part-time role. 

New York Yankees

Spencer Jones, OF

Sure, Jasson Dominguez is another option here. He’s a Top 100 Prospect with the inside track for the Yankees’ starting left field job if he can play even serviceable defense and stay on the field. For Dominguez, health is the biggest question. His minor league batted ball data last year was otherwise excellent. Jones’ outlook is far murkier after last season. His 200 strikeouts trailed only Elijah Green (206) in the minors in 2024, and evaluators noted his hands drifted lower and lower as the season progressed, leading to struggles with fastballs up in the zone. Jones has prodigious power and enough athleticism to comfortably man a corner. He’ll never make a ton of contact and might not even need to given his propensity for impact when he connects. But he needs to whiff less in 2025 to avoid his stock continuing to drop. 

Philadelphia Phillies

Justin Crawford, OF

We considered Mick Abel, but we’ve also covered his issues in the upper minors here and here. Crawford is fascinating. He cut his groundball rate by 10% in 2024 to… 60%. Some will see that figure and his inconsistent quality of contact as borderline disqualifying. Yet Crawford hits the ball fairly hard with more raw power on the way and has elite speed to the point where his approach and swing might just work with marginal improvements to his batted-ball profile. Evaluators would also like to see Crawford’s defense tighten in center field, even if he’s a great runner now. Crawford is still a Top 100 Prospect, although he’s No. 96 this winter after checking in at No. 44 a year ago, and there’s a bit more skepticism about the bat now, as well. Crawford has always produced, though, and we’ll see if that holds true once again in 2025. 

Pittsburgh Pirates

Anthony Solometo, LHP

We’ve covered Termarr Johnson as a potential option here at length elsewhere this offseason. Don’t lose sight of Solometo, though, whose stock was nearly as high as Johnson’s just a year ago when he was on the cusp of our Top 100. Instead, Solometo’s unique mechanics fell out of whack, and his velocity dropped into the upper 80s in his first taste of Double-A, requiring a trip to the development list. Solometo’s velocity crept back into the low 90s at the end of the year, and he pitches with plenty of movement and deception when everything is timed up. External evaluators are less convinced after 2024 that his longer arm action will allow for enough precision to start. Pittsburgh had the budget in 2021 to land Solometo—along with fellow preps Lonnie White and Bubba Chandler—after going underslot to draft Henry Davis first overall. Right now, only Chandler is trending upward. If Solometo can rebound, it would not only boost Pittsburgh’s 2021 draft class but also reaffirm his status as yet another intriguing upper-minors Pirates arm. 

St. Louis Cardinals

Chase Davis, OF

Which version of Davis will show up in 2025? The Cardinals’ 2023 first-rounder struggled mightily at Low-A, hitting just .184 with two homers through 38 games while striking out nearly 30% of the time. Some changes throughout the year, including tweaking his posture and hands into a more upright position, helped unlock a turnaround and a 144 wRC+ upon reaching High-A. Helping Davis sustain his contact gains would be a boon for a rebooted Cardinals player development operation. Dylan Carlson’s 3.2 fWAR is the highest among Cardinals first-rounders since 2015, a group that includes four players—Delvin Perez, Carlson, Dakota Hudson and Nick Plummer—who are no longer in the organization. Davis’ development could be key to reversing that trend.

San Diego Padres

Ethan Salas, C

Water should find its level for Salas in 2025. His simple swing, patient approach and flashes of raw power suggest much more impact is coming compared to what he produced as an 18-year-old in High-A in 2024, when he posted just a .599 OPS. But his struggles above Low-A so far as a professional following his supersonic rise in 2023 have at least cracked the door of concern ajar, and he dipped to No. 31 in our Top 100 Prospects entering 2025. Salas’ plus defense provides a high floor. Still, it’d be encouraging to see more juice start to emerge at some point soon. 

San Francisco Giants

Marco Luciano, OF

Luciano was the Giants’ top prospect from 2020 through 2023 and has been one of the system’s top two prospects since 2019. He’s powerfully built with easy plus raw power. Yet Luciano’s performance has trended in the wrong direction in the upper minors over the past two seasons and it wasn’t any better in the majors, where he owns a .217/.286/.304 line over 41 career games. He’s also no longer a shortstop, with Giants manager Bob Melvin saying Luciano will play exclusively in the corner outfield in camp this spring. Perhaps that’s the reboot Luciano needs. He’s still just 23 years old, but he needs to refine his approach on both ends of the ball. A third crack at Triple-A and a new defensive home could help Luciano simplify things and get back on track in 2025. 

Seattle Mariners

Harry Ford, C

The Mariners are quite good at identifying and developing premium pitching. They are looking for their next homegrown hitting success story to follow Julio Rodriguez and Cal Raleigh. For now, Ford plays the same position as Raleigh, although some evaluators believe his exceptional athleticism is better suited at another position, especially because his defense remains quite raw. Ford’s approach at the plate is much more mature, and he’s absolutely unwilling to expand the strike zone. His power production waned, though, in his first test of the upper minors. The Mariners have so far taken a methodical level-by-level approach to Ford’s development since drafting him 12th overall in 2021, and he is an outlier because of his position, speed and discerning eye. This is a pivotal year for Ford to continue to show his unique profile can translate to impact in the upper minors. 

Tampa Bay Rays

Dylan Lesko, RHP

For all their success developing pitching, the Rays rarely use first-round draft capital on pitchers. Lesko, who was selected No. 15 overall by the Padres in 2022, is a ball of clay for the Rays to mold. Any rebuild will need to begin with Lesko’s fastball command, which has evaded him since he had Tommy John surgery in 2021 and further deteriorated by the end of 2024, when he walked seven batters over two innings in his final outing while missing with his heater by an alarming margin. Lesko is a dynamic athlete on the mound, which makes his struggles all the more confounding. He’s now viewed as more of a reclamation project, but it wasn’t that long ago that Lesko had the highest upside of any arm in his draft class. Getting him back on track would be a major win. 

Texas Rangers

Jack Leiter, RHP

Brock Porter was another option here and shares some symmetry with Lesko as a 2022 prep arm who has lost his way. However, Leiter’s pedigree as the second overall pick in 2021, overall volatility and proximity to the majors can’t be ignored. Leiter’s development has felt like a highwire act navigating periods of excellence and futility. He made some meaningful changes simplifying and smoothing out his delivery in 2024 that led to far more success in Triple-A. But he’s still not a precise strike-thrower, and big league hitters demolished his fastball, even despite its premium velocity and extension. Scouts also questioned whether Leiter has a third pitch with the crispness and quality late life to sow doubts into the mind of big league hitters. Leiter will need to develop another counter to work his way into a crowded Rangers rotation mix. If he doesn’t, he could end up in the bullpen. 

Toronto Blue Jays

Orelvis Martinez, 2B

Martinez barely had time to place his things in his major league locker in 2024 before he was suspended 80 games in June for violating MLB’s performance-enhancing drug policy. He was otherwise in the midst of another trademark year of power production at a fairly young age in the minor leagues. Martinez’s profile isn’t perfect. He struggles with breaking balls and his defensive home is an open question, which clouds the profile a bit. First and foremost, Martinez must prove he’s still a formidable power broker when the 2025 season kicks off. 

Washington Nationals

Elijah Green, OF 

Green’s professional strikeout issues so far have been a well-documented nightmare. He led all minor leaguers with 206 strikeouts last season, and both his walk rate (9.8%) and strikeout rate (44%) got worse in his second year at Low-A. He now finds himself on a pair of undesirable FanGraphs minor league leaderboards: 

Minor Leaguers with 200+ strikeouts since 2006

• Lazaro Armenteros, Athletics – 227 (2019)
• Monte Harrison, Marlins – 215 (2018)
• Craig Dedelow, White Sox – 214 (2022)
• Braxton Davidson, Braves – 213 (2018)
• Drew Lugbauer, Braves – 212 (2022)
• Gage Workman, Tigers – 206 (2022)
• Adam Brett Walker, Twins – 202 (2016)
• Brewer Hicken, Royals – 202 (2022)
• Dusty Coleman, Athletics – 201 (2014)
• Jeramy Laster, Tigers – 200 (2008)
• Spencer Jones, Yankees – 200 (2024)
• Jerar Encarnacion, Marlins – 200 (2023)

Qualified full-season minor leaguers since 2006 with a 44% strikeout rate 

• Collin Theroux, A’s – 49.7% (2019)
• Seth Schwindenhammer, Red Sox – 47.1% (2011)
• Edwin Yon, Angels – 45.2% (2022)
• Braxton Davidson, Braves – 44.3% (2018)
• Jonah Davis, Pirates – 44.2% (2022)
• Telvin Nash, Astros – 44.1% (2012)
• Logan Glass, White Sox – 44.1% (2022)
• Elijah Green, Nationals – 44% (2024)

Obviously, he needs to make more contact, but finding the threshold to make it work is a far more fascinating question. For better or worse, the tools and swing he had as an amateur that led to the Nationals drafting him fifth overall in 2022 are still intact. Green has mammoth power and still produced a 94 wRC+ last year, which is pretty remarkable given his strikeout woes. He stole 39 bases. He’s an exceptional athlete who plays a hard-nosed center field. Those abilities should give him quite a long runway and perhaps a path to being a productive big leaguer if—and it’s a big if—he can find a way to even somewhat whittle down the strikeout rate.