2024 Rule 5 Draft Preview: Top Players To Know & Positional Breakdowns

Top Names To Know

Here is a look at the five players who jump out as having the kind of traits that make them among the most plausible picks.

Sammy Siani, OF, Pirates

The Pirates 2019 supplemental first rounder was left unprotected for a second consecutive season. Siani finally advanced beyond the High-A level and put up a league average offensive campaign in Double-A across 96 games. Siani produced a solid line in the Arizona Fall League and looks to be trending upward. He can play all three outfield positions and shows solid plate skills. He fits best as a fourth or fifth outfielder.

Christian Franklin, OF, Cubs

Among Rule 5-eligible hitters with upper-minors experience, Franklin might have the most complete package. He has a good balance of skills at the plate including contact, on-base ability and raw power. Franklin’s swing decisions grade out as plus-plus on multiple teams models, and his zone miss of 18% is in above-average range. While Franklin only hit six home runs this season, his power metrics aren’t bad. His 90th percentile exit velocity of 104 mph is above-average, as is his 40.8% hard-hit rate. Franklin is also a plus runner who swiped 34 bases on 41 attempts in 2024. Franklin played all three outfield positions this season and has the ability to play centerfield everyday. He is well-rounded and could fit as the fourth or fifth outfielder on a team looking for a versatile upside play. 

Bryan Magdaleno, LHP, Rangers

Magdaleno is a low-slot lefthander with good power across his pitch mix and three quality pitch shapes. He has very limited experience above Low-A but did reach Double-A to end the season. His fastball sits 94-96 mph from a low release height, mixing in a sweeper slider and a sinker. He allowed just six earned runs over 40.2 innings in 2024. Magdaleno generates ground balls, misses bats and has a good blend of stuff and deception. Some teams might see him as a low-risk, high-upside bullpen addition. 

Eiberson Castellano, RHP, Phillies

Castellano was a pop-up prospect in the Phillies system in 2024. The righthander made 20 starts between High-A Jersey Shore and Double-A Reading, pitching to a 3.99 ERA with 136 strikeouts to 29 walks. Castellano made eight starts in Double-A and was just as effective in the Eastern League as he was in the South Atlantic League. Over eight starts in Double-A, Castellano struck out 30.9% of batters he faced while walking 5.6%. Castellano has good stuff too, sitting 94-95 mph as a starter with a slurvy low-80s curveball he shows advanced feel for and a changeup. Castellano has good stuff, a track record of performance and above-average control, all traits that could make him a good Rule 5 target. 

Ryan Webb, LHP, Guardians

Webb was a surging fourth-year lefthander at Georgia in 2021 when he blew out his elbow and had Tommy John surgery. The Guardians selected him in the fourth round that summer, and he debuted a year later in the Arizona Complex League. After making 17 starts with High-A Lake County in 2023, Webb began his season at Double-A Akron. He pitched to a 2.87 ERA with a 26.8% strikeout rate and a 8.8% walk rate and was promoted to Triple-A. He made seven starts with Columbus, pitching to a 2.60 ERA. Webb has below-average velocity on his fastball sitting 90-92 mph, but he mixes a trio of quality secondaries in his low-80s gyro slider, low-80s changeup and upper-70s two-plane curveball. Webb shows excellent command of his slider, changeup and curveball combination and generates whiffs against all three pitches. He has the ability to generate whiffs against his secondaries, attack the strike-zone and suppress hard contact. He could fit into a similar vein as successful 2023 Rule 5 pick Mitch Spence.   

First Base Bats

These are first base/DH/corner profiles whose hitting ability drives their case for being picked. Ryan Noda was a recent example of a successful pick from this demographic. Last year the Guardians took a chance on Deyvison De Los Santos. He didn’t stick, but he then went on to lead MiLB in home runs.

Blaine Crim, 1B, Rangers

Crim was a prominent member of the Rule 5 preview last year. He went back to Triple-A Round Rock for a second straight year and posted a very similar season, hitting .277/.370/.469 with 33 doubles and 20 home runs. The righthanded hitter hits lefties and righties and draws plenty of walks. A first base/DH profile is a tough one for a Rule 5 pick, but it’s also one that has seen some success over the years. Crim is 27 years old, but he’s a low-risk, low-cost pick for a rebuilding team with a need at DH who can also play some first base. He can be brought to spring training to see if he can do what Ryan Noda did for the A’s a couple of years ago when he gave Oakland solid production at first base/DH for league-minimum salary.

Bob Seymour, 1B, Rays

Seymour is a lefthanded first baseman who hits the ball really hard, and he hits the ball in the air enough that if he makes enough contact, he could get to 25+ home runs. He hit 28 homers in 2024, including 19 in just 57 games after his promotion to Triple-A Durham. A hitter who hit .281/.451/.523 overall and .269/.353/.601 in Triple-A is worth a look in the Rule 5 draft. However, he also struck out 30.5% of the time, so there are some flaws here, as well. He’s vulnerable to velocity, and he’s never played a game other than at first base. There are fears that he’s more of a quality Quad-A bat. Think of him as a first base version of Mark Payton, who was an MLB Rule 5 pick in 2019 after he hit 30 home runs in Triple-A. Payton didn’t stick, but he did get 40 games in the majors over the next three seasons.

Ryan Ward, OF/1B, Dodgers

Ward’s 33 home runs led the Pacific Coast League and all of Triple-A, while his 34 home runs overall was second most in the minors, trailing only Deyvision De Los Santos. The analytics under the hood don’t impress as much as his numbers, and he has strikeouts to go with his home runs. He didn’t hit a ball 110+ mph all season, which will likely lead some teams to worry his power was boosted by the PCL, but Ward has always gotten the most out of his power. He’s averaged one home run every 20 plate appearances for his pro career.

Abimelec Ortiz, 1B, Rangers

Ortiz hit 33 home runs in 2023, but he wasn’t as productive after a promotion to Double-A Frisco in 2024, batting .243/.328/.423 with 41 extra-base hits (18 home runs) this past year. Ortiz hits the ball extremely hard—his 106 mph 90th percentile exit velocities are among the best in the Rule 5 class—but he’s a first base only profile and below-average defensively at first.

Backup Outfielders

Rarely do Rule 5 picks step right into starting roles in the outfield, but there are plenty of examples of speedy fourth outfielders and platoon bats.

Kala’i Rosario, OF, Twins

Rosario was an interesting decision for the Twins, as he’s got a chance to be an everyday outfielder with legitimate power. However, he played just 69 games in 2024 because of injuries, and it’s hard to project a .235/.321/.405 hitter in Double-A as big league ready. Rosario has plus power, but it comes with swing-and-miss issues. He knows the strike zone reasonably well, but good pitching can beat him in the zone. His strong arm fits in right field. He might get picked by someone, whether he can stick is going to be a tougher challenge.

Ricardo Olivar, C/OF, Twins

Olivar is unlikely to be ready for a big league job, as he has just 77 plate appearances above Class A, and he hit .224/.325/.299 in that stint with Double-A Wichita. But his on-base skills and his defensive versatility as a catcher/left fielder make him tempting for a rebuilding team willing to take a chance on suffering through some early struggles. He has an Edouard Julien-like approach, but with less defensive value, and he hits righthanded instead of lefty. Olivar hits plenty of line drives, even if he lacks top-end power potential.

A.J.Vukovich, OF, Diamondbacks

A fourth round pick in 2020, Vukovich had arguably his best season as a professional in 2024. The outfielder hit .270/.342/.458 with 17 home runs with Double-A Amarillo, good enough for a 123 wRC+. Vukovich is a slugger with above-average athleticism and fringy bat-to-ball skills. His above-average swing decisions give the profile a chance to work in the major leagues. Corner outfielders tend not to be particularly attractive as Rule 5 picks, but Vukovich has upside. 

Damon Keith, OF, Dodgers

As far as power hitters go, there’s few players available in the Rule 5 draft with as much raw power as Keith. His 108.9 mph 90th percentile exit velocity ranks as the third-highest among Rule 5-eligible players. Keith hit .259/.340/.496 with 16 home runs for Double-A Tulsa over 75 games. He has below-average contact skills but above-average swing decisions with elite contact quality. He’s seen time in both outfield corner spots and has a power-hitting, three-true-outcome-type profile.

Reed Trimble, OF, Orioles

A serious shoulder injury and nagging hamstring injury have slowed Trimble’s development over the past few years. He’s played only 136 games since being drafted and has just six games above Class A. But when he’s healthy, he’s shown athleticism, bat-to-ball skills and strike zone discipline. He was a perfect 29-for-29 on steals in 2024, as well. Trimble is not ready for the majors, but he can pinch run, play all three outfield spots and has tools.

Will Holland, OF/INF, Twins

To Holland’s credit, he’s versatile enough that it’s hard to decide where to slot him on this list. He’s played every position other than catcher and first base as a pro, and he’s playable most anywhere, with a plus arm as an asset. He struggled as a hitter in 2023, but he hit .299/.428/.556 in 41 games with Triple-A St. Paul before he broke his foot. If a team believes he unlocked some real improvements at the plate, Holland’s defensive versatility becomes interesting.

Bryan Torres, OF, Cardinals

Baseball America’s 2023 Independent/Partner League’s Player of the Year, Torres hit .332/.418/.416 while swiping 33 bags in the Texas League in 2024. He’s already 27, and he’s best in the outfield, but he can also play second base or third in a pinch. He could serve also as an emergency catcher, as he caught for the Giants earlier in his pro career.

Bullpen Arms

In any given Rule 5 draft, there will be more relief arms picked than any other demographic. Last year, Ryan Fernandes and Justin Slaten were successful choices, while Kevin Kelly was a nice pickup from the 2022 draft.

Shane Smith, RHP, Brewers

Smith pitched sparingly at Wake Forest due to Tommy John surgery before signing with the Brewers as an undrafted free agent in 2021. At 6-foot-4, 235 pounds, the 24-year-old Smith threw a career-high 94.1 innings in 2024, posting a 3.05 ERA with 113 strikeouts and 29 walks (mostly for Double-A Biloxi with five relief outings for Triple-A Nashville). Smith split time between starting and the bullpen, pitching off a fastball that sits 92-96 mph and can reach 98. He mixes in an average curveball and slider, a repertoire that likely plays better in short relief outings than having to get through a lineup multiple times.

Ryan Watson, RHP, Giants

Watson signed with the Orioles following the 2020 draft and has multiple years of Triple-A experience. The Giants acquired Watson for cash in August, obviously encouraged by his improving results. After years of working as a starter and long reliever, Watson made the jump to full-time reliever in 2024 to solid results. Watson’s slider is a plus sweeper, sitting 82-84 mph with around 9-11 inches of sweep. His four-seam fastball is above-average, sitting 93-94 and generating between 15-16 inches of ride from a 5-foot-5 release height. Watson also features a two-seam fastball, a curveball at 78-80 and a mid-80s splitter. At 27, Watson could be a classic reliever Rule 5 pick that gets interest based on the quality of his slider. 

Jack Sinclair, RHP, Nationals

A 2021 16th round pick out of Central Florida, Sinclair is Rule 5-eligible for the first time in 2024. Sinclair spent nearly all of the past two seasons in Double-A and doesn’t lack upper-minors experience or success. He has a balanced plan of attack, with good stuff, above-average swing-and-miss, strike-throwing and the ability to generate ground balls. Sinclair’s primary fastball is a sinker that sits 92-94 mph while touching 97 with heavy armside run. He mixes a sweeper slider in the low-80s featuring 15 to 16 inches of sweep and a low-80s changeup with good vertical and velocity separation off the fastball. Sinclair shows advanced command of his secondary and has the ability to miss bats with all three of his pitches. 

Griff McGarry, RHP, Phillies

On pure stuff alone, McGarry is one of the more intriguing prospects left unprotected for the Rule 5 draft. Unfortunately, poor command has plagued McGarry since his time as a collegiate at Virginia. After a breakout season in 2022, McGarry hasn’t been able to stay healthy—or find the strike zone—for the better part of two years. McGarry handled the Arizona Fall League’s tricky run environment and ended his season on a high note. He has upper-minors experience and big-league-quality stuff, but his lack of command might see him go undrafted. If a team does draft him, it’ll be because they believe the plus fastball and slider combination can play up in the pen.

Alex Mauricio, RHP, Yankees

Mauricio is a 2017 27th round pick who’s been a late bloomer for the Yankees. In 2024, he had his best year to date in Triple-A, making 37 relief appearances over 49 innings pitching to a 2.39 ERA with a 25.5% strikeout rate. Mauricio’s walk rate is a touch high at 13% and actually got worse after the Triple-A switch to the challenge system from the full ABS-zone. He’s not without risk, but he does have upper-level performance and decent stuff. Mauricio mixes a cut-ride fastball at 93-94 mph and a mid-80s slider. Mauricio is a candidate to be a lower-risk relief pick. 

Jack Hartman, RHP, Rays

The Rays acquired Hartman for Ji-Man Choi in November 2022, and he’s Rule 5-eligible for a second time in 2024. Hartman is a relief-only righthander with a swing-and-miss slider and above-average command of his three-pitch mix. Hartman’s fastball sits 95-97 mph, touching 98 at peak with high spin rates that create some late cut. The pitch missed bats in 2024 and it’s not his best pitch. That would be his upper-80s slider, which is a nasty pitch that generated whiffs at a rate of 40% in 2024. He also mixes a low-90s cutter for which he shows above-average command of. Hartman had a lot of success in 2024 but a majority of it came in High-A. He was promoted to Double-A following the All-Star break and pitched well there, so he does have some upper-minors experience, however limited. Hartman has a middle reliever profile and could be a solid gamble for a team looking to add a reliever with above-average stuff and command.   

Evan Reifert, RHP, Rays

A team picking Reifert would do so knowing they are taking a big gamble with a potentially-large payoff. In 2022, Reifert had an excellent season that ended with a dominating performance in the Arizona Fall League. At the time, it wasn’t outlandish to think that he could pitch in the Rays’ bullpen in 2023. Instead, Reifert completely lost his feel for the strike zone. He was shut down after walking eight in just four innings with High-A Bowling Green, while a later stint with the FCL Rays was no better, as he walked seven in 3.2 innings. Reifert bounced back to dominate at Double-A Montgomery in 2024, going 2-0, 1.96 with a 40% strikeout rate. His under-the-hood stuff isn’t as impressive, as he’s a slider-heavy reliever without a clear wipeout pitch. His fastball sits at 94-95 mph, and his slider sits in the 83-85 range. That’s below-average velocity for a righthanded reliever. He’s been successful when he throws strikes, but his bouts of wildness make him a risky pick.

Yujaner Herrera, RHP, Rockies

If healthy, Herrera would be very interesting, but he just had Tommy John surgery, which makes him hard to pick. The downside of selecting him would be that a team would have to carry him on the 40-man roster all offseason before placing him on the 60-day injured list during spring training. And then he’d have to be carried on the 40-man roster all next offseason as well, before then spending all of 2026 on the active MLB roster.

Hayden Juenger, RHP, Blue Jays

Juenger was phenomenal in his first professional season, breaking camp with Double-A New Hampshire. Since that time, Juenger has spent parts of three seasons in Triple-A but has yet to make his MLB debut. After a terrible 2023 where Juenger pitched to a putrid 6.33 ERA, the righthander returned to Buffalo in 2024. Overall, he put together a solid season for the Bisons, making 54 appearances spanning 68.2 innings and pitching to a 4.19 ERA. Juenger’s strikeout rates dropped in the second half of 2024, but he experienced significantly better batted ball luck over the final few months of the season. Juenger sits 93-94 mph touching 96 at peak on his four-seam fastball that features a flat outlier vertical approach angle giving the pitch “invisiball” traits. While all of Juenger’s three secondaries have good movement, none of them are commanded particularly well. Juenger has the requisite Triple-A experience to go in the Rule 5 and turned a corner in 2024 production-wise.

Elison Joseph, RHP, Braves

Joseph signed with the Braves out of the Dominican Republic in 2019 and has pitched as a full-time reliever for the entirety of his pro career. His pure stuff is among the best in Atlanta’s system, and in 2024 he split time between High-A and Double-A, where he posted a 2.04 ERA with a 34.1% strikeout rate and 12.6% walk rate. Joseph pitches off a 96-98 mph flat fastball that touches 100 from a lower-than-average release height and generates tons of whiffs at the top of the zone. He pairs the fastball with a mid-80s, high-spin slider that generated a 20.2% swinging strike rate in 2024. Both are plus offerings and could help him get outs in a big league bullpen, but his 14.7% career walk rate adds plenty of risk, and he’s only thrown 20.1 innings at Double-A. 

Noah Murdock, RHP, Royals

The Royals landed Murdock in the seventh round of the 2019 draft out of Virginia. After three seasons as a starter, the organization moved him into a long relief role in 2023. Entering 2024, Murdock’s role evolved once again, seeing more traditional three-to-five-out relief appearances. Over 46 outings—30 of which came in Triple-A—Murdock amassed a 3.16 ERA, 3.51 FIP, .196 opponents average against and 72 strikeouts over 62.2 innings. Murdock had 34 scoreless outings this season, including a 20-inning scoreless streak that spanned 14 outings from May 17 to June 29. Murdock mixes three pitches in a sinker, slider and cutter, all of which rate as above-average per Stuff+ metrics. Murdock’s fastball is a true sinker that sits 95-97 mph, touching 98 at peak. The pitch had a 70% groundball rate in 2024, and it allowed Murdock to limit extra base hits and damage. Murdock’s primary secondary is a low-to-mid-80s sweeper sitting 83-84 with 11 to 12 inches of sweep. His third pitch is an upper-80s cutter that sees increased usage against lefthanded hitters and generates above-average whiff rates for a cutter. Murdock does an excellent job of keeping the ball in the ballpark and primarily on the ground. He was nearly unhittable for rigthanded hitters in 2024, as they posted a .162/.297/.200 slash line (per Synergy Sports) against him. Lefthanders fared better but still only slugged .361 on the season. Murdock’s ability to drive both ground balls and whiffs during his time in the high minors makes him a logical Rule 5 pick.        

Riley Martin, RHP, Cubs

A sturdy lefthanded reliever the Cubs nabbed out of Quincy University in the sixth round in 2021, Martin signed for just $1,000 after the draft and has enjoyed a solid professional career to date. He spent all of 2024 with Triple-A Iowa, though Martin was not without his struggles. Things bottomed out in early August when he was placed on the development list. At the time of the move, Martin had a 5.40 ERA with an ungodly 17.9% walk rate. After a few weeks on the development list, Martin returned, making 10 appearances over the final month of the season and pitching to a 1.32 ERA, 1.89 FIP and a lowered walk rate of just 10%. Martin has always missed bats, evidenced by his career strikeout rate of 33.5% prior to his stint on the development list. When Martin returned, he showed not only improved command but improved bat-missing abilities, as his strikeout rate jumped to 41.7% over those final 10 appearances. The team altered Martin’s sequencing, and he started to attack more with his fastball. He curbed some of the usage of his sweeper slider and continued to lean into his plus low-to-mid-80s curveball. Martin has the sort of bat-missing lefty stuff that could play in a major league bullpen in 2025, and his late-season adjustments and subsequent performance could fuel his helium as a potential Rule 5 pick. 

Andrew Moore, RHP, Reds

There may be no single pitcher eligible for the Rule 5 Draft in 2024 with better stuff than Moore. The 25-year old righthander mixes a four-seam fastball that sits 95-96 mph and touches 100 with a mid-to-high-80s cutter, low-to-mid-80s sweeper slider and an upper-70s curveball. The four-seam fastball is a plus fastball by Stuff+ with a 121 score, meaning it was 21% better than an average fastball. Moore’s sweeper slider, curveball and cutter all grade as above-average-or-better pitches, too. Strike-throwing has long been the bugaboo for Moore, as his 16.1% walk rate in 2024 clearly shows. Moore has no experience above Double-A to date, which, in tandem with his poor command, could be a limiting factor in his getting selected in the Rule 5. Still, his level of success in the upper-minors with the ability to hit 100 mph on his fastball makes him a worthy look.    

Andrew Baker, RHP, Phillies

A junior college pick in the 11th round of the 2021 draft, Baker had some buzz early in his professional career due to his top-of-the-scale velocity. He’s spent parts of the last three seasons with Double-A Reading and has yet to conquer the level. After a season to forget in 2023 with Reading, Baker moved down a level, spending time with High-A Jersey Shore before returning to Double-A on July 1. Baker’s command was still bad, but it improved, and his ERA estimators showed potential improvement under the hood, too. Now, as for why Baker is here: huge power on his pitch mix. Baker has two fastballs shapes, with his two-seamer serving as his primary sitting 97-98 mph and touching 101 at peak. Baker’s slider misses bats at a high rate, but his below-average command makes it easier to take that it should be. If a team believes they can fix Baker’s command with a few tweaks, he has the stuff to handle leverage innings. His bottom-of-the-scale command will likely keep teams away.

Bryce McGowan, RHP, Rockies

The Rockies nabbed McGowan in the 18th round of the 2021 draft, and he’s been a solid reliever over the last few seasons. In 2024, McGowan spent the entire season at Double-A, making 41 appearances and pitching to a 4.12 ERA, 4.42 xFIP and a 24.5% strikeout rate. McGowan mixes a four-seam fastball and slider primarily, showing a changeup very rarely. The fastball sits 94-96 mph, touching 98 at peak with 17-18 inches of induced vertical break and 11-12 inches of horizontal break from a 5-foot-8 release height. The fastball missed bats at a reasonably-high rate, but his slider is his go-to swing-and-miss pitch. The slider sits 82-83 with baby sweeper type shape, and it’s more of a chase pitch than an offering designed to miss bats in the zone. It left batters in the Eastern League baffled in 2024, as they hit just .143/.222/.286 against it, per Synergy Sports. McGowan’s 13% walk rate was far too high in 2024 and could be a reason—outside of a lack of Triple-A experience—he’s not picked in the Rule 5. 

Russell Smith, LHP, Brewers

The Brewers drafted Smith in the second round of the 2021 draft out of TCU and signed him for $1,000,000. After making 15 starts in his professional debut, Smith moved to the bullpen in 2023. Over the last two seasons, he has been a productive reliever, enjoying an excellent 2024 season by making 29 appearances for Double-A Biloxi and pitching to a 2.73 ERA over 52.2 innings. The 6-foot-7 lefthander gets huge extension to the plate, with good shape on his four-seam fastball. The rub is his fastball only sits 88-90 mph, but it had great results this season, as hitters hit .194/.289/.319 against the pitch in 2024, per Synergy Sports. Smith’s secondaries do all the heavy lifting when it comes to missing bats, as both his changeup and slider boast whiff rates above 37%. Smith doesn’t have loud stuff, but his mix works and he knows how to get outs.   

Peyton Alford, LHP, Mariners

Alford is undersized lefthander who signed after the 2021 draft as an undrafted free agent out of Virginia Tech. Alford took a big step forward with his command the last two seasons, and he mixes a four-seam fastball that sits 92-94 mph with 19-20 inches of induced vertical break from a 5-foot-6 release height. The combination of ride, release and velocity from the left side makes Alford’s fastball an above-average bat-misser. His slider and curveball both do a good job of driving swing-and-miss, with whiff rates north of 35% against each and swing rates above 47%. Overall, Alford is a lefty reliever with three swing-and-miss pitches, upper-minors experience and enough command to make the jump to the majors.   

Austin Roberts, RHP, Marlins

Roberts was a 2022 Rule 5 selection during the minor league portion when the Marlins poached him from the Pirates. Over the last two seasons, Roberts got progressively better, taking a noticeable step forward in 2024. Over 50 appearances split between Double-A and Triple-A, he pitched to a 2.28 ERA, 3.02 FIP, with a 32.4% strikeout rate and a 11.1% walk rate. He held opponents to a .147 batting average while mixing four pitches, including a four-seam fastball, curveball, cutter and changeup. His fastball has only average shape but sits 94-96 mph, touching 98 at peak. He misses an average amount of bats with the pitch but shows above-average strike throwing ability with it, setting up his trio of secondaries. Roberts’ curveball and cutter grade out as plus based on Stuff+, and each pitch generated strong results in 2024. In fact, all three of Roberts’ secondaries boast swinging strikes rates of 15% or higher. His curveball is his standout pitch, generating swinging strikes at a rate of 23.5% in 2024. Roberts has upper-minors success, a trio of above-average pitches and solid command, meaning he has a chance of going from being minor league Rule 5 pick to the major league portion. 

Coleman Crow, RHP, Brewers

Crow generated some buzz during the first half of 2023 after he showed a significant increase in his induced vertical break on his four-seam fastball. Crow was placed on the injured list on May 12 of 2023, however, and he was traded to the Mets in June before having Tommy John surgery announced in August. In other words, 2023 was a busy year for Crow. The righthander missed all of 2024 recovering from surgery but returned to the Arizona Fall League. Crow’s 2023 vertical break has disappeared, and there might be a few reasons why. First, very obviously, there’s the injury and subsequent surgery. The other reason is Crow’s breakout came during the first half of the 2023 season in the Southern League. For those who may have forgotten, MLB used an experimental pre-tacked baseball in the Southern League during the first half of 2023. Crow’s added vertical break was likely heavily aided by the pre-tacked ball. Overall, Crow has experienced a drop in his four-seam, slider and curveball movement since that last time we saw him. Whether this is a result of his recovery or the product of seeing him without a pre-tacked ball, Crow’s stock looks to be down. In turn, he’s unlikely to be selected in the Rule 5. 

Brandan Bidois, RHP, Pirates

A 2019 international signee out of Australia, Bidois missed two months of the season with right rotator cuff inflammation. Bidois returned at the end of the season, making one appearance for Triple-A Indianapolis. He participated in the Arizona Fall League, making seven appearances for Scottsdale but finding very little success, as he pitched to a 8.22 ERA with a 10.6 walk per nine rate. What Bidois lacks in upper-minors experience or success, he makes up for with good stuff. He mixes four pitches in his four-seam fastball, cutter, slider and curveball. The fastball, slider and cutter all rate as above-average pitches per Stuff+ and the heater sits 94-97 mph, touching 98 with plus ride. Both his cutter and slider have above-average velocity for their movement profiles, and he shows the ability to miss bats with all three. Bidois’ command overall was solid in 2024 outside his AFL showing. He’s likely too young and inexperienced to get picked, but he’s one of the more interesting names available in the long term.  

Alex Santos II, RHP, Astros

Leading up to this offseason, Santos had amassed a 6.63 ERA across 188.2 professional innings since 2022. The 2020 first-round pick looked more like a future minor league free agent than a potential Rule 5 pick. Santos missed the final four and a half months of the season with an elbow strain, but returned to the Arizona Fall League. In AFL play, Santos pitched as well as he has during his professional career. Over six appearances, Santos struck out 26 batters to just seven walks over 17.2 innings, pitching to a 3.57 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP—a stark departure from Santos’ in-season numbers. The kicker is he did it in the AFL’s extremely-generous offensive environment. The biggest change in Santos’ repertoire between pre-injury and his successful stint in the AFL was his slider shape. In the AFL, Santos was throwing a sweeper as opposed to his previous straight slider. This change seemed to generate more whiffs and allowed his fastball, which has a nice velocity and vertical break combination, to play closer to its stuff. Is there a team willing to ignore Santos’ previous track record and take a chance on him as a reliever with two potentially above-average pitches? More than likely, no. 

Paxton Schultz, RHP, Blue Jays

The Blue Jays acquired Schultz as a player to be named later in a February 2021 trade that sent Derek Fisher to the Brewers. Schultz has gradually climbed the Blue Jays’ minor league ladder, spending a full season with Triple-A Buffalo in 2024. Schultz was used primarily as a multi-inning reliever and saw some success in the role. Schultz’s pitch mix is not what you would consider great stuff by typical standards, but he has multiple pitches that grade out as above-average-or-better in Stuff+ models. Schultz is unique, as his best “stuff” pitches aren’t his best swing-and-miss offerings. His four-seam fastball sits 92-94 mph with average vertical break from a generic release height. The pitch, however, generated a whiff rate of 30.7% in 2024, which is a plus whiff rate on a four-seam fastball. Schultz does a good job of hiding the ball, and his crossfire finish from a three-quarter arm slot creates a deceptive look at release. Schultz’s secondaries consist of an upper-80s cutter, a mid-80s split-changeup and a low-80s sweeper slider. The numbers against the slider aren’t good, as hitters batted .271/.312/.414 against it, per Synergy Sports. The pitch doesn’t generate whiffs either, as evidenced by a 9.6% swinging strike rate in 2024. Schultz’s cutter is his most-used secondary, but it doesn’t induce many whiffs, and hitters hit it hard in 2024. Schultz’s success is in large part due to his fastball’s uniqueness. He could stand to throw his changeup more, as it performed better than any of his secondaries. In all likelihood, Schultz won’t get selected, but he has some interesting traits and Triple-A success. 

Eduarniel Nunez, RHP, Padres

The Padres added Nunez on Nov. 6 as a minor league free agent. Despite his recent arrival to San Diego, he could be a potential Rule 5 pick in a few weeks, as he was left off the Padres’ 40-man roster. Nunez’s numbers in 2024 were solid while splitting his time between Double-A Tennessee and Triple-A Iowa. He made 46 appearances in relief spanning 60.1 innings, pitching to a 3.28 ERA with 64 strikeouts. In Triple-A, Nunez struggled to throw strikes, walking 22% of batters he faced over 19 appearances. In all likelihood, that lack of success will be a limiting factor in whether he’s a realistic selection or not. Nunez’s stuff overall is well above-average, as he sits 97-99 mph on a fastball that touches 102, mixing in a mid-80s curveball with serious two-plane depth. He’ll show a changeup and a cutter, but neither are thrown much. If you’re buying Nunez as a Rule 5 pick, you believe the strike-throwing issues in Triple-A were a blip. You view him as a potential one-inning, fire-breathing dragon due to his ability to miss bats and drive high rates of ground balls. With upper-90s velocity and a hard downer curveball, Nunez has the makings of a big league one-two punch.

Swingman Starters

Mitch Spence last year was the rare Rule 5 starting pitcher pick who stepped straight into an MLB rotation. More often, MiLB starters slide to a bulk-innings relief/swingman role before eventually earning a spot in the rotation. The Orioles’ Tyler Wells is an example of that approach.

Lazaro Estrada, RHP, Blue Jays

Estrada re-signed with the Blue Jays after spending seven seasons in the organization. Signing out of Cuba in July 2018, Estrada’s ascent had been slower than is typical. Over his first few seasons stateside, Estrada dealt with injuries and ineffectiveness. He broke out in Low-A in 2023 as a 24-year-old, throwing 76.1 innings with a 2.83 ERA. In 2024, Estrada was assigned again to Low-A Dunedin, but after a couple of starts was promoted to High-A Vancouver. Over nine starts, Estrada struck out 32.7% of batters he faced while walking 7.4%. He was promoted to Double-A New Hampshire in early July and pitched better than his ERA of 4.47. Estrada’s pure stuff doesn’t jump off the page, but his low-90s fastball has excellent shape with plus rise and run. The offering is Estrada’s primary pitch, seeing heavy usage. He has a trio of breaking pitches: a low-to-mid-80s slider, an upper-70s curveball and a mid-to-high-80s cutter. Estrada could potentially work as a long reliever, but his lack of upper-minors experience is likely a limiting factor. 

Logan Workman, RHP, Rays

Quality innings in the upper-minors have become the standard for Rule 5 picks over the last 25 years, and Workman is coming off a season in which he racked up 146 innings. Workman spent a majority of his season with Double-A Montgomery but made five starts for Triple-A Durham at the end of the season. Workman’s pitch mix features four pitches with above-average Stuff+ grades: a four-seam fastball, slider, cutter and changeup. While quality stuff is important, the ability to command good stuff separates big leaguers from prospects, and Workman boasts above-average in-zone and strike rates on all four of his pitches. Workman can handle a starter’s workload, has above-average stuff and command. This gives him a shot to thrive in a variety of roles for a potential Rule 5 suitor.  

Zach Messinger, RHP, Yankees

A 2021 13th round pick out of Virginia, Messinger put together an excellent full season with Double-A Somerset in 2024. Over 25 starts, Messinger pitched to a 3.06 ERA, 3.54 FIP and 1.11 FIP. He doesn’t have huge strikeout numbers, but he does have an above-average slider that generates swinging strikes, chases, and strikes at high rates. It’s a mid-80s true slider with higher spin rates, but most of all, it’s a pitch Messinger shows advanced feel for. His fastball is below-average, sitting 91-93 mph with pedestrian shape, while his changeup shows potential but lacks feel at present. Messenger projects best as a depth starter, but you could gamble on the slider and fastball velocity playing up in short stints out of the pen. A Yankees pitcher has to go every year or it’s not really a Rule 5 draft, as the last time it didn’t happen was 2014.

Alex Pham, RHP, Orioles

Pham ranked as the Orioles’ No. 27 prospect heading into 2024, and he produced a solid full season at Double-A, making 27 starts and throwing 119 innings. Pham gets outlier induced vertical break on his fastball but sat just 91-93 mph as a starter. He’s been up to 96 and could potentially see a further velocity bump out of the pen. He mixes three breaking ball shapes in a mid-to-high-80s cutter, an upper-70s curveball and a low-80s sweeper slider. He also has a solid changeup in the mid-80s with splitter-type of action. Pham has a good chunk of successful upper-minors experience with average command and the ability to generate swings and misses. 

Ben Peoples, RHP, Rays

Peoples’ cut-ride four-seam fastball might be one of the most interesting pitches any Rule 5 eligible pitcher throws. It sits 93-95 mph with 17-18 inches of induced vertical break on average with heavy cut and a near-zero horizontal movement number (a defining characteristic of cut-fastballs). Peoples is extremely fastball-heavy despite getting whiffs against both his slider and changeup. He’s been a starter up to this point but is injury-prone, missing half the 2024 season. Peoples has the sort of stuff that could play up in the bullpen and the control to make it work. He will be 24 next season and only has 55.1 innings over Double-A, however, so it might still be a little early for a team to take a chance on him. Still, he has interesting stuff, performance and an above-average fastball.   

Alex Cornwell, LHP, Cardinals

A 2021 15th-round pick out of USC, Cornwell is a first-time-eligible lefty with an extreme groundball profile. In 2024, he made 15 starts with Double-A Springfield. He had a few stints in Triple-A this season but was moved back and forth between Springfield and Memphis. Overall on the season, Cornwell’s numbers are mediocre, posting a 4.91 ERA, 1.53 WHIP and 22.8% strikeout rate. Despite middling production, Cornwell is interesting for a few reasons: he generates ground balls at an elite rate, throws lots of strikes and his ERA estimators are good. Cornwell’s stuff is fringy, but he mixes a variety of shapes in a cut four-seam fastball, a cutter, a curveball and changeup. While there’s a lot to dismiss between his stuff and performance, the 3.69 xFIP, 58.2% groundball rate and 12.12% swinging strike rate is a good combination of traits.

Mike Vasil, RHP, Mets

Once a highly-recruited prep righthander out of Massachusetts, Vasil spent a majority of the last two seasons in Triple-A, including all of 2024. This season, Vasil moved to a two-seam fastball as his primary fastball grip, moving away from the four-seam he used heavily in 2023. This resulted in the best groundball rate of Vasil’s career. Despite this evolution, Vasil’s results were poor. Over 27 starts and a pair of relief appearances, Vasil pitched to a 6.04 ERA and 5.11 xFIP, as opponents hit .287 against him. Despite the poor numbers, teams might find a few things attractive about Vasil’s profile. First, he mixes six different pitches in a two-seamer, four-seamer, cutter, slider, curveball and changeup. Second, his stuff is above-average and might play up in a relief role. Third, Vasil has a deep arsenal, as he threw those six different pitches 250 or more times in 2024. A team might view shortening his arsenal to three to four core pitches in certain situations as low-hanging fruit. Finally, Vasil has shown durability, throwing 120 or more innings in each of the last two seasons, which gives him the ability to handle a variety of roles. Vasil struggles against lefties, but he did show the ability to get outs against them with his curveball this season. A greater emphasis on the pitch could lead to improved splits in 2025 and beyond. 

Dominic Hamel, RHP, Mets

Drafted out of Dallas Baptist in the third round of 2021, Hamel had good results leading up to his Triple-A debut in 2024. Over 27 starts for Syracuse, Hamel pitched to an ugly 6.79 ERA with a 5.77 xFIP, 1.75 WHIP and a 13.2% walk rate. Hamel struggled with the ABS zone, but it didn’t get much better in the second half. In fact it got worse, as Hamel posted a 6.97 ERA after Triple-A went to a full challenge system. So why is Hamel here? Simply, he has four viable pitches in his fastball, slider, cutter and his changeup. All four of those pitches grade as above-average-or-better on Stuff+, and perhaps moving Hamel to the bullpen is attractive for a team. If Hamel could sit closer to his 90th percentile velocity from this season as a starter, which was 94.5 mph, his fastball with plus vertical break could certainly play above his Triple-A numbers. While Hamel’s numbers in 2024 were atrocious, there are some elements that could make him a desirable Rule 5 pick.  

Bailey Dees, RHP, Yankees

The Yankees signed Dees for just $50,000 out of Penn State in the 18th round of the 2021 draft. After two seasons as a reliever, Dees made the jump to the starting rotation in 2024 with Double-A Somerset. In 2024, Dees made 26 starts totaling 137.2 innings and pitching to a 4.25 ERA and 3.82 xFIP. Dees mixes a trio of pitches in a four-seam fastball, slider and changeup. The changeup is Dees best pitch, as it plays well off his fastball with good vertical and velocity separation. The fastball is a below-average pitch, as Dees sits just 91-92 mph, touching 95 at max with fairly pedestrian movement. His crossfire finish and command of his fastball allows it to survive above its raw traits. Dees’ slider is thrown more than the changeup and is used heavily against righthanded hitters. The performance against the pitch was solid, but its primary function is as a cement mixer that drives ground balls, not as a swing-and-miss offering. Dees has no Triple-A experience, and his lack of a quality fastball might be a limiting factor in whether or not a team would select Dees. He has shown the ability to provide quality innings and has a potential above-average pitch in his changeup.  

Brett Kerry, RHP, Angels

Are you a team that won’t be competitive in 2025? Are you looking for a low-cost starter that can eat innings at the back of your rotation? Yes! Then can I interest you in Brett Kerry? He won’t wow you with strikeouts, big stuff or gaudy production, but he has made 45 starts over the last two seasons, amassing 285.2 innings. In 2024, Kerry made 22 starts, pitching 150.2 innings. Kerry did get demoted from and promoted back to Triple-A late in the season, but it is the Angels, who tend to hoard all of their talent at Double-A, so there’s no way to know if moving Kerry to Double-A was actually a promotion. All jokes aside, Kerry can eat innings, and perhaps his PCL performance wasn’t quite as bad as it looked, as Salt Lake City and the rest of the league have parks that tend to play very small. None of Kerry’s pitches rate as average or better, but he shows feel for his secondary combo of slider, changeup and cutter.  

Backup Infielders

Tanner Murrary, 2B/3B, Rays

Murray has largely spent the past two years at Double-A Montgomery because of the Rays’ surplus of middle infielders. He hit .290/.328/.424 in 2024 while playing second base, third base and shortstop. He’s a solid defender at second and third and playable at short in a pinch. Murray doesn’t have a massive ceiling, but a team looking for an inexpensive utility infielder may take a look.

Ronny Simon, 2B/3B, Marlins

The Marlins signed Simon as a MiLB free agent after the season. He’s coming off of a year in which he hit .283/.356/.429 at Triple-A Durham. Simon is an excellent hitter with solid plate discipline, bat-to-ball skills and enough pop to make pitchers pay for mistakes. If he had a solid glove, he’d be a slam-dunk selection. Unfortunately for Simon, his hands and actions are well-below-average at second and third base, and he’s below-average in left field, too. A team willing to pick spots to get him on the field could be getting a solid, MLB-ready bat.

Ivan Johnson, 2B, Reds

Johnson isn’t really playable at shortstop, but he does have the ability to fill in as an outfielder in addition to playing second base. He’s coming off a .256/.355/.465 season at Triple-A Louisville, and he’s always been considered a solid hitter. The upside at the plate probably isn’t enough to get him picked, but he is worth a look.

Catching Help

It’s hard to stick as a true catcher. The last catchers to meet Rule 5 roster requirements were Luis Torrens and Stuart Turner in 2017. But that doesn’t mean teams won’t look to see if there is an exception to that rule.

Omar Alfonzo, C, Pirates

Alfonzo isn’t ready for a big league job, but his progress in 2024 might be enough to at least make a team consider stashing him. He doesn’t turn 22 years old until August and is coming off a year where he hit .252/.357/.403 with 13 homers while reaching High-A Greensboro. The lefthanded-hitting catcher has above-average power potential and improved his 106.4 mph 90th percentile exit velocity by nearly 4 mph compared to 2023. He’s also a solid thrower. His receiving is a work-in-progress and he still hit the ball on the ground almost 49% of the time, but he received strong internal and external reviews following the season and figures to rank squarely in the Pirates Top 30.

Stephen Scott, C, Tigers

Scott has worked hard to prove he can catch. He still plays some first base and left field, but he caught 47 games in 2024 and 62 games in 2023. He’s an adequate framer, and he has an above-average arm. His bat is what makes him interesting, as he hit .283/.350/.472 at Triple-A Toledo in 2024. He could fit for a team looking for a bat-first backup catcher.

Injured Sleepers

Cole Waites, RHP, Giants

Waites saw limited big league time in 2022 and 2023, totaling just eight innings. He struggled in 2023 when he seemed to have a clear path to a role in the Giants’ pen, and Waites was optioned to Sacramento, where he continued to struggle. He blew out in early July and had Tommy John surgery later that summer. He re-signed as a minor league free agent last offseason after he was non-tendered and spent the season recovering from his surgical procedure. Reports as of early November note Waites is fully recovered and ready to go for spring training. That’s not to say Waites is out of the woods just yet, however. This is the righthander’s second Tommy John surgery, and there’s no data backing the quality of his recovery in games as of yet. The last time we saw Waites, he was throwing a plus fastball sitting 94-96 mph with 17-18 inches of induced vertical break from a 5-foot-5 release. The pitch has an excellent plane due to the release and riding life, making it a soul-crusher at the top of the zone. Waites’ primary secondary is a low-to-mid-80s traditional slider that showed good in-zone whiff tendencies. A two-pitch reliever with power, it’s just a matter of if Waites’ command is up to par to face major league hitters night in and night out.