2023 NCAA Tournament Charlottesville Super Regional Preview

Schedule

Friday, 12 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
Saturday, 12 p.m. (ESPN2)
Sunday, TBD (If necessary)

Virginia

Coach: Brian O’Connor

Postseason history: Eighth super regional (first since 2021). Seeking sixth trip to Omaha and first since 2021.

Postseason route: No. 1 seed in Charlottesville Regional. Went 3-0, defeating East Carolina in regional final.

Scouting report (anonymous coach breaks down the Cavaliers)

“They’re just complete. There’s a lot of ways they can beat you and not a lot of ways you can beat them. They always have the rock-steady approach from O’Connor. On the mound, they limit the big innings, at the plate, guys know their roles and they’ve got super stars. They’ve got power, speed, on-base, slugging. They feel good about beating a lot of people.

“You have to pick your poison. Are we going at (Jake) Gelof and away from (Kyle) Teel or away from Gelof and at Teel. You can’t sit there and go after both or go we’re going to pitch around both because of (Ethan) O’Donnell and (Casey) Saucke and (Ethan) Anderson. I think those are the two, though. Duke kind of limited both of them in the games they won. If O’Donnell, Saucke, Anderson and O’Ferrall have to beat you and those other two can’t do it, you feel good about holding them under seven runs.

“If you go look at Kyle Teel—those arms are good, they’re high floor guys—but what Teel does by snatching strikes helps them a lot. If they hit a spot, he’s bringing them back in the zone better than anyone in the country and I think the metrics bear that out. They can pitch and they can command but he does an unreal job of stealing strikes. That’s the game behind the game with those arms.

“Griff O’Ferrall, I think is the best shortstop in the country. I know there are top-end pro guys so I’m not going to sit here and try to win an argument with that but he’s the best in our conference by far. His first steps, arm, everything is so clean. He’s kind of their quarterback. He has that presence on their defense.

“Playing at home is an advantage, but Duke’s been there. They’ve seen how the ball flies, the big batter’s eye, they faced those arms in that ballpark. I don’t see homefield advantage as a huge deal this weekend but if one of those superstars hits a jack or they turn a double play they know to get things rolling with the crowd.”

Projected Lineup

C: Kyle Teel
1B: Ethan Anderson
2B: Henry Godbout
3B: Jake Gelof
SS: Griff O’Ferrall
LF: Colin Tuft
CF: Ethan O’Donnell
RF: Casey Saucke
DH: Anthony Stephan

SP: Nick Parker
SP: Connelly Early
SP: Brian Edgington
RP: Jake Berry
RP: Jay Woolfolk

Duke

Coach: Chris Pollard

Postseason history: Third super regional (first since 2019). Seeking fourth trip to Omaha and first since 1961.

Postseason route: No. 2 seed in Conway Regional. Went 3-1, defeating Coastal Carolina in regional final.

Scout report (anonymous coach breaks down the Blue Devils)

“Piecing the puzzle together on the mound is the key. If they get the lead and they can go with the leverage guy, that’s when you get in trouble. Both of those teams have the freshmen arms. It’ll be a battle of the freshmen arms. At the back end of the bullpen, it’s a push. But you can have one of these teams blow someone up in the middle innings. The Virginia starters are going for more length, so Duke’s hitters will have more cracks at them. At any given moment Virginia can hit for a three spot, so that’s the key there—avoiding giving up a big inning.

“Duke can run, they can get a hit by pitch, they can hit a jack, they’re pretty balanced offensively.

“(Shortstop Alex) Mooney is the catalyst. If Mooney goes, watch out. He can steal a couple bags, he really stirred the drink for them. If Mooney goes, then they’ve got a big chance.

“They’re old and experienced. Everything you can say about Duke and that’s Virginia, too. They’re not far behind Virginia in any area. One thing they may be ahead on is innings 4-7. Can Duke get a lead or if they’re behind can they keep it close in those middle innings?

“They have a lot of options but they don’t do matchups much. They look for who’s better one time through the order. They’ll go to (Charlie) Beilenson if it’s tied or if they’re ahead or down one. If they’re down two or three, they’ll go (Owen) Proksch or (Aidan) Weaver. If Virginia can get a lead and put pressure to throw Beilenson 2.2 innings in game 1, then he’ll only throw one more time. Virginia has (Jay) Woolfolk and (Jake) Berry, they can cover the high-leverage innings very easily.

“Defensively, they’re similar to Virginia. They’ve got a high floor. They’re not going to make mistakes and run into big innings. You have to earn your runs against them. They’re old, they know what they’re doing. Mooney’s not going to hurt you, (second baseman Jay) Beshears is going to make some above-average plays.

“They’re about pitching, defense and old hitters. It’s like, keep us in the game and just give us a chance.”

Projected Lineup

C: Alex Stone
1B: Luke Storm
2B: Jay Beshears
3B: Andrew Fischer
SS: Alex Mooney
LF: Tyler Albright
CF: Giovanni DiGiacomo
RF: Damon Lux
DH: MJ Metz

SP: Alex Gow
SP: Andrew Healy
SP: Jason White
RP: Charlie Beilenson
RP: James Tallon