20 Breakout MLB Pitching Prospects To Watch In 2025
Image credit: Juan Valera (Photo by Nick Cammett/Diamond Images via Getty Images)
It has now become an annual tradition that I choose 20 pitching prospects prior to each season with the potential to break out. What defines a breakout can vary, but for myself, I think a few fundamentals need to be in place.
First, any player who appears on the Top 100 Prospects list during the season or following would be an obvious win. By the same token, a strong statistical performance should be valued, even if said prospect doesn’t rise to the heights of the Top 100. With this in mind, an ERA under 3.50 over 90 or more innings in my mind is a breakout. While ERA is an imperfect metric—as most are— it does capture how well a pitcher did his primary job of keeping runs off the board.
Holding myself accountable for my picks allows me to see skillsets I may have over or undervalued. This presents opportunities to improve my own prognosticator skills while providing some transparency for readers.
50 More Prospects Who Had Scouts Buzzing This Spring
Josh Norris presents part two of his annual spring training wrap-up highlighting standout prospects.
As a group, my 2023 breakout pitcher class performed okay in our 2024 review. Those 20 prospects pitched to a 4.14 ERA and 1.37 WHIP while running a 27.7% strikeout rate and 11.5% walk rate. A mediocre overall performance, though there were some bright spots. Two years removed, the group looks better with five of those pitchers emerging as big league regulars—Mason Miller, Porter Hodge, Emmet Sheehan, River Ryan and Richard Fitts—in some role or another. While noted push Luis Perales made his way onto the Top 100 list prior to his injury, marked losses Jarlin Susana, Miguel Ullola and Chris Campos look like wins 24 months later. The group as a whole performed better in 2024, as they cut their group ERA to 3.83 with an improved WHIP of 1.30 while running a 28.1% strikeout rate and 10.5% walk rate. The improvement was good to see, but as I noted in last year’s review, this group was heavy on stuff and lighter on execution and pitchability than what is ideal.
As for the 2024 collective, I’m happy to report that there was marked improvement in my picks’ performances year over year. I leaned more heavily into starter’s traits like pitchability and command, which played out in the group’s overall numbers. The combined ERA of 3.53 was more than half a run better than the 2023 group’s year-over-year performance. The performance in both WHIP (1.23) and walk rate (9.9%) also made noticeable jumps. There was a drop in strikeout rate from 27.7% in 2023 to 26.33% in 2024, but a loss of little more than one percentage point is a worthwhile tradeoff.
Among this group of 20 pitchers, I consider eight to be true breakouts: Thomas White, Jackson Ferris, Caden Dana, Brandon Sproat, Logan Evans, George Klassen, Brody Hopkins and Jaden Hamm. All either cracked the Top 100 at some point or pitched to a sub-3.50 ERA over 90 or more innings. That’s a 40% hit rate up from a year ago.
I considered another eight to be “pushes” to varying degrees, as these players were either injured (Landen Maroudis), limited in innings (David Matoma) or lacked the statistical performance or recognition that would deem them a breakout. Of this group, the Dodgers’ Patrick Copen and Payton Martin both had solid seasons and were the closest to being named breakouts.
The most noticeable change year over year is the shrinking total of misses. Even among those losses based on performance—Kyle Carr, David Sandlin, Josh Knoth and Blake Wolters—only Carr feels like a true loss. Sandlin is a buzzy name this spring and looks like he could follow the Susana path to a year-two breakout. Wolters has tremendous upside, but we’ll continue to wait for the results to match his skills. Knoth wasn’t bad, but he wasn’t good either, and he had Tommy John surgery earlier this year.
Ok, with that context in mind, let’s meet my latest class of breakout pitching prospects and dive into 20 names to watch in 2025.
Juan Valera, RHP, Red Sox
Valera made waves last summer. He made his stateside debut just weeks before his 18th birthday and earned a promotion to Low-A Salem after dominating the Florida Complex League as one of the five youngest pitchers on the circuit. Valera across 63.1 innings in 2024 pitched to a 1.99 ERA with a 27.9% strikeout rate, 11.5% walk rate and .123 opponents batting average against. While Valera’s performance in 2024 puts him in rare company, his reputation hasn’t quite caught up as one of the top young pitching prospects in the lower minors. Valera showed strong stuff in his stateside debut in 2024, sitting 93-95 and touching 98 mph on his four-seam fastball with cut-ride-type shape. He mixed a mid-to-high-80s slider with moderate sweep, a softer sweeper with more dynamic horizontal shape and a firm low-90s changeup. This spring, Valera was sitting 96-100 on the backfields, throwing a upper-80s-to-low-90s slider and his firm low-90s changeup with heavy armside run. While Valera still has some development to go, the Red Sox showed immense faith in the righthander by assigning him to High-A Greenville out of camp. If Valera shows his same combination of stuff and pitchability that’s led to this point, he has a chance to skyrocket up rankings in 2025.
Payton Tolle, LHP, Red Sox
A former two-way star at Wichita State, Tolle later transferred to TCU and focused on pitching full-time. He performed well enough to go in the second round of the 2024 draft to the Red Sox. The 6-foot-6 lefthander generates outlier extension with his frame, sometimes hitting an insane eight-feet of extension. Tolle’s big frame didn’t translate to immediate fastball velocity as a collegiate, however, as he sat 91-92 mph in the spring of 2024. This spring, reports have had Tolle sitting 94-96 and touching 97 at peak. Even if we shave a tick off and say Tolle is more around 93-95 to start the season, it could be a major development. Tolle’s elite extension creates deception and allows his four-seam shape to be highly effective when elevated at the top of or above the strike zone. He’ll begin the season at High-A Greenville as a part of a talented staff alongside Juan Valera, Hayden Mullins and Jedixson Paez. In addition to his plus fastball, Tolle mixes an upper-80s changeup, a harder slider in the mid 80s and a sweepy curveball that’s up to the low 80s this spring. As a lefthander with pitchability, improving stuff and some freakishly outlier traits, Tolle is well-positioned to take a big step forward this season.
Kendry Rojas, LHP, Blue Jays
Signed out of Cuba in October 2020, the early years of Rojas’ career have been a slow burn. He dealt with injuries in 2021 and again in 2024 before dominating over his final nine starts with High-A Vancouver. Over that stretch, Rojas struck out 28% of batters he faced while allowing walks just 5.5% of the time. Over a 50-inning stretch, Rojas pitched to a 2.16 ERA while going six or more innings in six of his final seven starts. He then made six appearances in the Arizona Fall League, getting his season innings total up to 78.1 by the end 2024. This spring, Rojas has made a step forward from a pure stuff perspective. He’s also made steady velocity gains over the last few seasons, averaging 93.5 mph on his fastball in 2024. In the Blue Jays’ Spring Breakout game, Rojas was sitting 97 over two innings of work, mixing his slider at 86-89 and a mid-80s split-changeup. It’s a true three-pitch mix with a chance for three average to above-average pitches at peak. Rojas will begin the season on Vancouver’s injury list with a strained oblique but should return later this month.
Casey Steward, RHP, Phillies
The Phillies landed Steward in the 19th round out of DII Washburn in 2023, and he’s proven to be a savvy pick. Steward made 22 appearances (20 starts) between Low-A Clearwater and High-A Jersey Shore, pitching to a 3.42 ERA with eerily-similar results at both levels. The 6-foot-5 Steward handled 102.2 innings in his full-season debut and will return to High-A to begin 2025. During the Phillies’ Spring Breakout game, he was up to 98 mph on his fastball while mixing an upper-80s slider. The fastball lacks hop but with the velocity bump—he sat 93-94 in 2024—his fastball could play up. The slider was earning plus grades during spring training while showing feel for a changeup. Steward is a big-bodied righthander with velocity that’s trending up and improving command.
Carlos Lagrange, RHP, Yankees
The Yankees attack the international market better than any team in baseball. Each year, they compiled an interesting new crop of international players—and it’s not always a product of big bonuses, either. Standing 6-foot-7, Lagrange signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2022 for only $10,000. Lagrange impressed across both the Dominican Summer League in 2022 and in the Florida Complex League in 2023. A back injury limited him to just 21 innings in the regular season last year and a handful of appearances in the Arizona Fall League. During the Yankees’ Spring Breakout game, Lagrange was up to 101 mph, tossing four innings while allowing an earned run on two hits with no walks and two strikeouts. In addition to a fastball that can reach triple digits, Lagrange throws a low-90s cutter, a changeup and a mid-80s slider. If he can continue to harness his power, throw strikes and stay healthy, Lagrange could break out.
Grant Taylor, RHP, White Sox
Taylor has been on our radar dating back to the summer of 2022 thanks to a standout performance in the Cape Cod League heading into his draft-eligible spring. Unfortunately, Taylor was injured in the Fall of 2022 and had Tommy John surgery, missing an opportunity to be a part of LSU’s 2023 national championship team. Her returned to the mound in 2024, making five appearances between the Arizona Complex League and Low-A Kannapolis. Taylor was then sidelined with a lat injury in June and did not return until the Arizona Fall League. After a strong spring, Taylor will begin the season as a member of a ferocious Birmingham rotation and is poised to break out. He’s armed with elite stuff, arguably as good, if not better, than rotation-mates Noah Schultz and Hagen Smith. Taylor mixes five different pitches regularly, led by a four-seam fastball that sits in the high 90s and touches 101 mph at peak. His best secondary is his low-90s cutter, followed by an upper-80s slider, mid-80s curveball and a changeup. Taylor generates over seven feet of extension on average, playing up the deception on his big stuff. His primary issue has been command, so if he can manage to stay around the strike zone this season, he could rank as one of the better pitching prospects in baseball by season’s end.
Andrew Morris, RHP, Twins
The Twins landed Morris in the fourth round of the 2022 draft out of Texas Tech. After strong results over his first two full professional seasons, he is opening 2025 in Triple-A and already performed in his first start, tossing five scoreless. Morris sat 95-96 mph on his four-seam fastball with cut-ride shape, mixing a low-90s changeup, low-90s cutter and a handful of downer curveballs in the mid 70s. His stuff is up from a year ago, and he’s shown excellent walk rates throughout his professional career. Morris is undersized at 6-foot, but he has the combination of stuff and execution that could play above his size. The 23-year-old looks poised to break out in 2025 and could potentially see some starts with the Twins’ big league club.
Nestor German, RHP, Orioles
German experienced something of a breakout already in 2024, going from being an 11th round pick in 2023 to one of the most dominant pitchers in the lower minors a year later. He made 21 appearances across 73.2 innings, striking out 31.4% of batters he faced while walking just 5.9%. German will begin the season with a return to High-A Aberdeen, where he’ll look to pick up where he left off. German’s arsenal consists of a four-seam fastball, curveball, changeup, cutter and slider. His four-seam fastball sits 92-94 mph, touching 97 at peak with an outlier ride average of 19+ inches of induced vertical break on the pitch in 2024. German mixes his secondaries well, throwing his curveball, cutter, slider and changeup at nearly-equal rates. His ability to mix shapes off his high-ride heater and throw strikes consistently could lead to a rise to prominence in 2025. It’s an unusual combination of feel for spin, fastball shape and strikes.
Ryan Sloan, RHP, Mariners
Dating back to his draft spring, the feedback from scouts and those within the industry has been loud in regard to Sloan. He came out in the Mariners’ Spring Breakout game throwing absolute gas: sitting 95-96 mph and touching 97 mph. He mixed in a hard mid-80s sweeper with heavy horizontal break, as well. The Mariners have a strong track record in regards to developing pitching, especially with starters, and Sloan might be the next in line for the team’s enhancement process. Assigned to Low-A Modesto to begin 2025, he has the high-octane stuff, athleticism and projection to develop into a potential frontline starter. This season could prove to be his platform year on a national scale.
Dasan Hill, LHP, Twins
An athletic lefthander, Hill was a nice pick for the Twins with the 69th overall pick in the 2024 draft. He stands in at 6-foot-5 with a good frame, and he impressed this spring, getting up to 95 mph on his fastball while showing a slider and curveball. Plucked out of the Texas high school ranks, Hill has both projection, present stuff and some pitchability. The Twins assigned Hill to Low-A Fort Myers to begin 2025, where he could prove to be one of the most exciting pitching prospects on the circuit in the early part of the season. Hill shows two fastball shapes, two breaking ball shapes and a changeup that needs refinement. It’s the starter kit for potential top pitching prospects, making Hill a name to watch this season in the Florida State League.
Gage Jump, RHP, Athletics
After a highly successful high school career in one of the most competitive baseball leagues in the country, Jump pitched at both UCLA and LSU before the Athletics drafted him in the supplemental second round in 2024. This spring, Jump has flashed good stuff, sitting in the mid 90s from a low release height due to his excellent extension. Jump’s fastball generates an outlier amount of ride for his release, and it generates a flatter plane that makes the pitch difficult to barrel. Jump backs up his fastball with a trio of secondaries in a low-to-mid-80s changeup, mid-80s slider with moderate sweep and an upper-70s curveball with heavy two-plane depth. He found success in his one season in the SEC, pitching to a 3.47 ERA and 3.30 FIP with a 29.8% strikeout rate and a 6.8% walk rate across 83 innings. Jump will begin 2025 with High-A Lansing where he’ll make his professional debut.
Braylon Doughty, RHP, Guardians
Cleveland made a strategic decision in 2024 to spread money around the draft board and target a strong trio of prep pitchers in Joey Oakie, Chase Mobley and Doughty. The latter received the highest bonus of the three as the supplemental first-round pick and has earned some encouraging praise from scouts early. The Guardians backed this up with an assignment to Low-A Lynchburg to begin 2025. While Doughty is not a stuff monster with an upper-90s fastball, he has a feel for a variety of shapes, an ability to spin the baseball at an elite rate and advanced pitchability. These characteristics could make him one of the breakout stars of the Carolina League early this season.
Jackson Nezuh, RHP, Astros
After two years as a highly-touted recruit who underdelivered at Florida State, Nezuh transferred to Louisiana-Lafayette for his third season and dropped to the Astros in the 14th round in 2023. In Nezuh’s professional debut, he performed well across two levels of A-Ball, tossing 120.1 innings with a 3.89 ERA and 3.46 FIP. He showed bat-missing ability ion 2024, striking out 30.1% of batters he faced while displaying solid command with a 9.6% walk rate. While Nezuh lacks standout velocity—he sits 92-93 mph, touching 96 at peak—he does ride the four-seam as well as anyone in the minors with an average induced vertical break last season of 19-20 inches. He generated a 30.1% whiff rate against the fastball in 2024, and with another couple of ticks, the four-seam could be plus pitch. While none of Nezuh’s secondaries are plus, his low-80s splitter flashes above-average and misses bats at a high rate. The splitter has good vertical and velocity separation from his fastball, hinting that it could play as he climbs to higher levels. Nezuh shows three different breaking ball shapes in a low-80s slider, a mid-80s cutter and a mid-70s curveball, but none of them stand out as whiff-inducing weapons. Nezuh will get his first taste of the upper minors in 2025 starting the season with Double-A Corpus Christi.
Bryce Mayer, RHP, Astros
Each and every draft cycle, the Astros seem to pluck a talented future star from an obscure school or a later round. This year, that pitcher will be Mayer, a 2024 16th-round selection. Mayer spent one season at Missouri, pitching primarily out of the bullpen after two seasons at St. Charles (Mo.) JC. He made his professional debut after the draft, making three appearances for Low-A Fayetteville and striking out 10 over 6.1 innings while touching 96 mph. Mayer mixes a four-seam fastball featuring good shape, ride and armside run, with a low-80s curveball, low-80s slider, cutter and changeup. The buzz this spring around Mayer could be loud, as he’ll begin his 2025 with Low-A Fayetteville.
Karson Milbrandt, RHP, Marlins
It’s taken a couple of seasons for Milbrandt to get his sea legs underneath him as a professional, but he showed improvements in 2024 and is once again flashing another gear in 2025. He will begin the 2025 season on the injured list with High-A Beloit, but upon his return, he could be one of the more exciting names to pass through the Midwest League this season. In the Marlins’ Spring Breakout tilt, Milbrandt sat 97 mph on his fastball, averaging 17-18 inches of IVB with nine inches of horizontal break. Plus fastball metrics are one of the reasons he was able to generate multiple whiffs against the pitch in his short outing. He rounds out his mix with an upper-80s cutter, mid-80s slider and a low-80s curveball. It’s a power pitcher mix, and Milbrandt looks like he’s starting to figure out the execution side of pitching. If he can return healthy this season, he could be a riser this summer.
Jackson Baumeister, RHP, Rays
The old adage around baseball is to always be wary of trading with the Rays. While I think the Orioles would make the Zach Eflin trade again, Baumeister could prove to be yet another savvy pickup by Tampa Bay. Baumeister has shown improved velocity this spring, as he was up to 97 mph, sitting 93-95 on his four-seam fastball during the Rays’ Spring Breakout game. He has excellent shape on his four-seam fastball, which generates an above-average combination of ride and armside run. Baumeister mixes three secondaries in a mid-to-high-70s downer curveball, a mid-80s changeup and a low-80s slider with moderate sweep. He tossed 99.2 innings during a professional debut spent entirely at the High-A level, pitching to a 2.53 ERA and 3.06 FIP with a 32.7% strikeout rate. Baumeister will begin 2025 with Double-A Montgomery, where he could enter the Top 100 Prospects conversation shortly.
Connor Prielipp, LHP, Twins
At the beginning of his sophomore season at Alabama, Prielipp had a chance to go in the top of the first round. However, things don’t always go to plan, as the lefthander had Tommy John surgery and did not return to the mound until 2023 spring training. Prielipp dealt with another elbow flare up early in 2023 which led to internal brace procedure in July of that year. He returned last summer to High-A, but the Twins were cautious with him, limiting his innings. To start 2025, Prielipp is assigned to Double-A Wichita and is coming off a spring in which he showed great stuff. He sat 96-97 mph and touched 99, showing off his elite feel for spin while boasting two breaking balls that could wind up plus in a slider and cutter. Prielipp also shows feel for the changeup with at least average command. In 2025, Prielipp will look to prove he’s fully healthy for the first time since 2021.
Jonah Tong, RHP, Mets
Tong first showed up on our radar as a pop-up prospect early in 2024. After dominating Low-A, he earned promotion to High-A Brooklyn where he spent a majority of his season. He ended 2024 with Double-A Binghamton and will return to the level to begin 2025. Tong generates plus vertical ride on a four-seam fastball that sat 92-93 mph in 2024. This spring, his velocity was up slightly, and he’s generated a fair amount of buzz. Tong mixes the four-seamer with a mid-70s curveball, a mid-80s slider and a low-to-mid-80s changeup. Tong handled 113 innings in 2024 and looks capable of handling bulk frames once again in 2025. In his age-22 season, Tong could push to the brink of the majors by season end with an outside shot at debuting.
Braxton Ashcraft, RHP, Pirates
Entering his age-25 season in 2025, it’s been a slow burn for the 2018 second-rounder. Injuries derailed large swaths of Ashcraft’s early professional career, as his 2024 inning total of 73 is his highest in any single season. Ashcraft has a spot on the 40=man and Triple-A time in parts of two seasons. He wasn’t sharp in his debut with Indianapolis in 2025, but he showed excellent stuff. Ashcraft can both ride and sink his fastball, showing a four-seamer with above-average ride and a sinker with true sink and heavier armside run. His primary secondary is a nasty cut-slider in the low 90s with classic cutter shape, and he also blends in a low-80s curveball and an improved changeup showing better vertical separation off his fastball. If Ashcraft can stay healthy, he could be the next starter promoted to a young and talented Pirates rotation.
Ty Floyd, RHP, Reds
Not too long ago, Floyd was part of a two-headed monster atop the LSU rotation with Paul Skenes. After winning a national championship with the Tigers in 2023, Floyd was drafted by the Reds in the supplemental first round. However, he never debuted after dealing with a sore elbow in spring training and later missing all of 2024 due to shoulder surgery. This spring, Floyd was active late in camp and looks likely to make his debut at some point in the first half of 2025. Prior to the injury, Floyd mixed a mid-90s four-seam fastball with plus ride and cut, a changeup with heavy fade, a low-80s slider with around 9-10 inches of sweep and an upper-70s curveball. If Floyd can return to his pre-injury self, he has a chance to be one of the biggest risers this summer.
