Poveda blew out his elbow in February and had Tommy John surgery during spring training, sidelining him for the entire 2010 season. The Marlins had good scouting reports from the past on Poveda, and figured they were buying low when they got him and relief prospect Evan Reed from the Rangers in a July trade for Jorge Cantu. Prior to his injury, Poveda threw an 88-92 mph fastball, mixing a two-seamer into his repertoire to give him a little more movement. His best pitch is an above-average changeup that he's comfortable throwing to both lefties and righties. He also uses an average downer curveball. Despite striking out better than a hitter per inning in Class A ball in 2007-08, he never has been an overpowering pitcher. His game is throwing strikes and letting his defense work. Poveda impressed the Marlins with his rehab effort following the trade. He was progressing a little ahead of schedule, though he likely won't be ready for the beginning of the 2011 season. He'll return to Double-A when he's back to full strength and projects as a command-oriented No. 4 or 5 starter.
Poveda has climbed steadily through the system since signing in 2004. He missed time with a shoulder injury in 2008 and with a hand injury last year, but he held his own as a 21-year-old in Double-A. Poveda isn't a glamorous prospect, but he has a quality three-pitch repertoire, good command, a clean delivery and a strong, durable frame. His fastball sits at 88-92 mph and touches 93. He pitches with a good downward angle and has integrated a solid two-seamer with a bit more movement into his arsenal. His best pitch has long been his changeup, an above-average offering that he throws in any count against lefties or righties. He has also developed an average downer curveball. Poveda doesn't overpower hitters, but he throws strikes and gives his defense a chance. The Rangers would like to see him do a better job pitching out of trouble in the middle innings. He'll advance to Triple-A in 2010 and could earn some spot starts in the big leagues. He profiles as a back-of-the-rotation starter.
Poveda opened 2008 in high Class A with an eye toward a midseason promotion, but after just three starts, he went down with a shoulder injury that sidelined him until mid-June. He spent his downtime strengthening his shoulder, and when he returned his fastball velocity gradually increased from 88-91 mph to 91-94. He pitched very well in instructional league and made three appearances in the Venezuelan League before the Rangers protected him on their 40-man roster in November. Poveda complements his fastball with an above-average changeup that he can throw in any count against lefties or righties. His curveball has improved every year and is now a solid-average pitch. Sometimes his fastball flattens out and he leaves it up on the strike zone, and he occasionally falls too much in love with his changeup. Poveda is a strike-thrower with a good work ethic. He's still maturing mentally and needs to get a little tougher and learn to trust his ability. He'll advance to Double-A in 2009 and could be a solid back-of-the-rotation starter in Texas in the next couple of years.
After holding his own in the Midwest League as an 18-year-old in his 2006 U.S. debut, Poveda returned to the MWL and mastered it in '07 before earning a late promotion. Though he's still officially listed at 200 pounds, the Rangers say Poveda is finally starting to fill out his angular frame and is now closer to a more durable 215 pounds. That build evokes fellow Venezuelan Freddy Garcia and Yankees righty Carl Pavano, and like those former No. 3 starters, Poveda is a strike-thrower with a good work ethic and solid mound presence. His solidaverage fastball sits at 89-92 mph and occasionally touches 93, and he might have a touch more projection left. His straight changeup is a plus offering that can sometimes be plus-plus, and he throws it in any count to righties as well as lefties. He has developed his downer curveball into an average offering that he can sometimes get hitters to chase in the dirt. He still needs to continue refining the pitch and learn how to attack advanced hitters, but he figures to continue his rapid climb through the system in 2008, starting back at high Class A Bakersfield. He could reach Double-A by midseason and could be a mid-rotation starter in the big leagues by 2010.
The Rangers believe Poveda's peripheral numbers in his first full professional season in the United States paint a more accurate picture of his performance than his ugly win-loss record. He spent the entire season as an 18-year-old in low Class A and posted a 133-37 K-BB ratio, a reflection of his advanced feel for pitching. He even held his own in an emergency spot start at Double-A Frisco in July, allowing just one earned run in five innings, though he walked five. Tall and rangy with a loose arm and easy delivery, Poveda remains a projection guy, but his savvy and businesslike mound presence are positive indicators for his future. He has begun to fill out his frame and increased his fastball velocity from the mid-80s to the low 90s, typically sitting at 88-92 mph. He easily could add more velocity as he gets stronger. His best pitch is a plus changeup that is effective against both lefthanders and righthanders, and he does a good job mixing locations and keeping hitters off balance. His slurvy breaking ball lags behind his changeup and needs to be tightened up. Poveda figures to start 2007 in high Class A and he could become a mid-rotation big league starter.
Poveda signed as a 16-year-old out of Venezuela for $75,000 in July 2004 and went to instructional league that fall, where he showed impressive poise for his age. His 2005 debut in the Rookie-level Arizona League was even more encouraging. His ERA ballooned to 5.61 because of two bad outings and belied his sterling 56-12 K-BB ratio. Big leaguer Gerald Laird caught Poveda during one rehab stint and was amazed at how advanced his command and feel for pitching were for such a young pitcher. Poveda's best pitch is his fastball, which jumped from 86-88 mph early in the summer to the 90-92 range by the fall. He also has a three-quarters breaking ball and a changeup, though both pitches have a ways to go. Poveda has a big, projectable body and already has put on 25 pounds since signing. His legs are very strong, but he's still quite lean from the waist up and needs more upper-body strength. Poveda should skip a level and pitch in low Class A this year.
Minor League Top Prospects
Poveda pitched in the MWL last year as an 18-year-old, going 4-13, 4.88 for a bad Clinton team that went 45-94. Still one of the league's youngest pitchers in 2007, he helped lead the LumberKings into the playoffs and showed three quality pitches. Poveda's best offering is a nasty changeup, and his curveball is solid. Not only will he throw his secondary pitches in any count, but he also can get them over for strikes. He sets them both up with an average fastball that sits at 88-92 mph. While he's still young, Poveda is already physical at 6-foot-4 and 200 pounds and one scout compared him to Freddy Garcia. He doesn't have exceptional arm speed, so he may not add much more velocity, but he's very advanced for his age.
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