2021 BA 500 Draft Rankings
The BA 500 is an attempt to capture the industry’s consensus on the talent of the 2021 draft class—not to predict where players will be selected. The list was compiled in consultation with major league scouts, front office executives, scouting directors, college coaches and other professional evaluators. Ben Badler, Alexis Brudnicki, Teddy Cahill, JJ Cooper, Kyle Glaser, Joe Healy, Bill Mitchell, Chris Trenkle and Carlos Collazo contributed to the reporting and writing. Mark Chiarelli, Josh Norris and Chris Trenkle contributed to editing.
By Carlos Collazo
Well, it’s finally here—the 2021 BA 500!
No, we’re not late, but this is the deepest into the calendar year we have ever released the BA 500, as the 2021 draft is the first to be moved into July and tied to the MLB All-Star Break.
Baseball has largely put Covid-19 behind it this spring, but the 2021 draft class has still felt the ripple effects of the pandemic. While it won’t be remembered as the Covid draft in the same way the five-round 2020 draft last year will be, there’s an argument to be made that the 2021 draft class is equally impacted by the virus—if not more so.
Scouts wondered if that would be the case a year ago, as Covid largely blew up the summer evaluation period for scouts and players alike, especially amongst the college ranks. No Collegiate National Team. No Cape Cod League. No 18U National Team. While many high school events took place in the South, players from the West Coast were more limited in their options and scouts themselves had to miss events entirely due to personnel restrictions (and in some cases layoffs) and further step into the world of video scouting by writing reports remotely.
That dynamic has led to plenty of volatility during the season as players who previously didn't have a chance to establish a track record or baseline of performance stood out, and others with some history struggled. Teams are now left to try and sort out the signal from the noise by more heavily relying on area scouts and their history and/or adjusting their models to incorporate a much smaller sample of college stats.
Those factors—on top of the exceptional depth of the 2021 class thanks to the five-round draft last year that brought back many players who would have been drafted in a typical year—have led to less consensus on the class than ever.
“This year I have no expectations because it is so wide open,” said one scouting director. “When I walk into that draft room the night of the draft I wouldn’t be surprised if it was completely all over the place in terms of where guys go. Just not a lot of consensus.”
There’s not a consensus No. 1 player in the class and instead a group of five players are generally seen as the top tier of talent. That group includes toolsy prep shortstops Jordan Lawlar and Marcelo Mayer, renowned Vanderbilt righthanders Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker and Louisville catcher Henry Davis, who was one of the best performers of the season.
After a full spring, the high school class looks more impressive than the college group. The 2021 class has a chance to be one of the best prep shortstop classes we’ve ever seen, with four potential top-10 picks at the position and a slew of intriguing depth options as well. Outside of the shortstops there is a bounty of up-the-middle position players with unusually impressive athleticism and tools.
The high school pitching group, led by righthanders Jackson Jobe and Andrew Painter, seems close to average, with several legitimate first-round talents and perhaps more lefthanded pitching depth than in an average class.
Scouting departments were worried about the college hitting class entering the year, but there was hope that throughout the spring players would step forward and make it at least average. That doesn’t appear to have been the case. Most evaluators see the college hitters as the weakest demographic of the group—with a notable absence of shortstops and corner profiles with power—and it’s a solidly below-average college hitting class overall.
The college pitching saw attrition during the season as potential top-10 players like Gunnar Hoglund and Jaden Hill suffered season-ending injuries, but the group seems solid or a tick above-average on talent—but significantly below-average in terms of innings and established track record.
Overall, the 2021 class seems weaker than teams would prefer at the very top, but with elite depth that might leave organizations more excited with their draftees on Days Two and Three than in a typical year.
We will continue to make tweaks and adjust the BA 500 as necessary as we get closer to draft day.
*BA Grades and Tool Grades — We’re excited to roll out BA Grades and tool grades for the top 200 players in the class for the first time. BA readers familiar with the Prospect Handbook should be familiar with these grades, which are based on the 20-80 scouting scale. Our attempt is to provide a deeper understanding of the class in a quantifiable manner and to also make it easier for readers to have a rough estimate of where a player might rank within a team’s Top 30 once they are drafted. Please note that all player grades and tool grades are future grades, not present grades.
**Rapscores — 85% of Baseball America’s Top 500 MLB prospects use Rapsodo data for player development and evaluation. In collaboration with Driveline Baseball, Rapsodo developed RapScore as a standard scale for scouting and recruiting. Utilizing the principles of the 20-80 scale and the verified data collected by Rapsodo’s technology, RapScore provides a quantifiable way to compare athletes of all ages. Players that complete a Rapsodo Certified Assessment receive a RapScore and are listed on the Rapsodo National Player Database.
- 28 –Last: 28Notes:
Ht: 6-2 | Wt: 210 | B-T: L-LBA Grade: 55 | Risk: Extreme
Commit/Drafted: North Carolina
Age At Draft: 18.6
Fastball: 55 | Slider: 60 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 55
Solometo has continued to build his stock from last summer, growing from a promising lefty with a funky delivery into one of the top prep arms in the country. He starts his delivery with a big leg kick leading into a long, deep arm swing in the back reminiscent of Madison Bumgarner's arm action. That delivery adds deception and makes for uncomfortable at-bats, but all those long, moving parts also gave several scouts hesitancy about his ability to repeat and throw strikes consistently. However, Solometo performed well last summer, stamped by an outstanding showing at the Future Stars Series at Fenway Park in September. He continued to show command of both his fastball and slider this spring, though there have been outings where his control backed up and he missed to his arm side. His fastball sits around 89-93 mph with arm-side life and he has the ability to reach back for 96 when he needs an extra gear. He consistently gets ahead of hitters, throwing strikes with his fastball to both sides of the plate. His low-80s slider is a plus pitch at times and Solometo is adept at executing it down in the zone, comfortably throwing it to the back foot of righthanded hitters or landing it to his arm side. Solometo doesn't throw his changeup much and it's hit or miss, but he has shown some feel for that pitch too. Solometo doesn't have the same fastball or athleticism as fellow New Jersey prep pitcher Chase Petty, but he's a lefty who throws more strikes with a less stressful delivery, so some scouts prefer Solometo. His combination of stuff, pitchability and track record should make him one of the first high school pitchers off the board.More Less
- 29 –Last: 29Notes:
Ht: 6-0 | Wt: 185 | B-T: R-RBA Grade: 55 | Risk: Extreme
Age At Draft: 18.3
Fastball: 70 | Slider: 60 | Changeup: 55 | Control: 45
Petty is the most famous prep pitcher in the country thanks to a fastball that has been up to 102 mph in a bullpen and 101 in a game this spring. He's one of the hardest-throwing high school pitchers ever, up there with Reds righthander Hunter Greene, who went No. 2 overall in 2017 and also touched 102 mph. In games, Petty's fastball has sat 93-96 mph at times and mid-to-upper 90s in other starts. He complements his fastball with an out pitch in his slider, which has tight spin and sharp bite at its best, though at times it has flattened out on him. It's a pitch that flashes plus and shows glimpses of a potential plus-plus pitch in the future. Petty doesn't need his changeup against high school hitters so he rarely throws it, but he has shown feel for that pitch too. Petty's raw stuff suggests considerable upside, but high school righthanders are a risky group as a whole and Petty has several red flags that give teams reservations. He's a good athlete but it's not an easy, fluid delivery, with considerable effort to his arm action and mechanics. His fastball control has also been erratic, with a tendency to yank the ball well out of the strike zone, especially to his glove side. That causes him to fall behind in too many counts and might lead to a high walk rate early in his pro career. Petty's slider misses a lot of bats, though some scouts have said his fastball doesn't lead to as many swings and misses as they would expect given his velocity. He rarely throws his changeup and it's inconsistent, but some scouts think it has above-average potential too. Petty's profile is similar to Lance McCullers from when he was in high school touching triple-digits with a good slider but also had reliever risk and pitchability questions. If Petty proves durable and can rein in his control, his upside is obvious, but his risk factors are ones that teams weigh more heavily now than they did even a few years ago.More Less