Christian Roa

Organization Prospect Rankings

• 
  Ranked Cincinnati Reds #24 prospect in 2024
  BA Grade: 45/High
  
  Track Record: The good news for Roa is he was finally able to show he could stay healthy and carry a reasonably heavy workload. His 120 innings in 2023 was nearly 30 more than he’d ever thrown in a season. He has battled a sports hernia and an elbow flexor strain in the past, but he took his turn every time in 2023. He seemed to struggle with the Southern League’s sticky baseball at the start of the season, but his control didn’t improve upon moving to Triple-A..
  
  Scouting Report: Roa seemed to struggle to repeat his delivery regularly in 2023, which is concerning because his stuff isn’t good enough to have success when he’s falling behind in counts. There’s more effort than ideal, and Roa struggles to keep his arm on time with his lower half, leading to below-average control. His 56% strike rate in 2023 is far below an acceptable level. If Roa can throw more strikes, he has the varied assortment of pitches to survive as a starter. His relatively straight mid-90s fastball could be an average pitch, and his mid-80s slider is above-average but sometimes morphs into more of a cutter. He also has a fringe-average curveball. All of his pitches are usable, but his command and control will need to improve to get the most out of his mix.
  
  The Future: The Reds had 17 different pitchers make starts in 2023. That’s a worst-case scenario, but it shows the value Roa could provide as a useful, reliable Triple-A starter who is ready and waiting when one of the team’s regular starters is on the injured list. The Reds added Roa to the 40-man roster for that reason, but he needs to add polish in a return to Triple-A Louisville.
  
  Scouting Grades Fastball: 50 | Curveball: 45 | Slider: 55 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 30
• 
  Ranked Cincinnati Reds #16 prospect in 2022
  Track Record: Ideally, Roa will be a big and durable starter, but so far he hasn’t shown he can eat innings. He’s yet to throw 60 innings in any official season stretching back to his high school career. His chance to do that at Texas A&M was torpedoed by the pandemic. He then missed instructional league in 2020 because of a sports hernia. In 2021, he missed time with an elbow flexor strain that limited him to 58.2 innings.
  
  Scouting Report: Roa has the makings of four average or better pitches with average control. He’s more of a sum-of-the-parts pitcher than one who depends on any one plus offering. His four-seam 91-94 mph fastball is a solid-average offering and he’s shown he can bump it up to 96-97 when he reaches back. His low-80s changeup has developed into his best pitch, an above-average offering with solid deception and fade. It’s his best two-strike pitch, as he can get swings and misses from hitters who chase it. His low-80s slider and high-70s curveball are both average as well. His ability to throw strikes with both breaking balls and his fastball keeps hitters guessing.
  
  The Future: What Roa needs more than anything is a season when he can make 20-plus starts and get to 100 or more innings. He has the arsenal to be a No. 4 starter, but durability is a key component of filling that role.
  
• 
  Ranked Cincinnati Reds #11 prospect in 2021
  TRACK RECORD: After two years as a reliever and fill-in starter for Texas A&M, Roa moved into the Aggies' weekend rotation and had an uneven four starts before the coronavirus pandemic ended the college season, but the Reds and other teams were enthused by what they saw. Roa had sports hernia surgery that kept him from pitching at the alternate training site or instructional league.
  
  SCOUTING REPORT: Roa has four pitches that project as average or above-average, and his spin rates and movement profiles are promising. He has a clean arm action and a durable frame and above-average control. Roa will succeed in pro ball if he can throw strikes and mix his pitches to keep hitters from sitting on his average, 92-94 mph fastball. Roa can throw his above-average slider for strikes or bury it, and his above-average changeup's deception gets awkward swings and misse. His average curveball is useful as a change of pace option early in counts.
  
  THE FUTURE: Roa's varied assortment of usable pitches, frame and delivery should lead him to be a fourth or fifth starter. If he can sharpen the slider or changeup a little further he could end up being even better.

Draft Prospects

• Ranked #64 prospect in 2020 draft
  One of many rising college arms in the 2020 class, Roa impressed scouts early this spring with a strong four-pitch mix, a physical 6-foot-4, 210-pound frame, solid strike-throwing ability and a clean arm action and delivery. He has a lot of starter traits on paper, and after being unranked on our preseason Top 200 list, teams believe Roa could go off the board as high as the second round. Roa throws a fastball, slider, curveball and changeup, all of which are at least average and a few much better than that. Roa’s fastball sits in the 92-93 mph range for the most part, getting up to 95-96 at the upper end, but some scouts are concerned with how true the pitch is. Batters square it up more than teams would like, which might mean Roa needs to rely more on a quality trio of offspeed offerings. His slider is his best breaking ball, an above-average pitch he can land for strikes consistently, while some scouts believe his changeup is his best overall offering. Some scouts have put double-plus grades on the changeup, while his curveball is more solid-average at best. Roa’s 2020 numbers don’t align with the scouting feedback, as he posted a 5.85 ERA in four starts and 20 innings, with 35 strikeouts and nine walks. One concerning metric is Roa’s career hits per nine mark, which is just under 10 and speaks to the concerns about Roa’s fastball playing too flat. Traditional scouts and analytics departments might have differing thoughts on Roa’s profile, but he possesses plenty of starter traits as a solid strike thrower with a strong four-pitch mix.

• December, 2021 Scouting Report
  Track Record: Ideally, Roa will be a big and durable starter, but so far he hasn’t shown he can eat innings. He’s yet to throw 60 innings in any official season stretching back to his high school career. His chance to do that at Texas A&M was torpedoed by the pandemic. He then missed instructional league in 2020 because of a sports hernia. In 2021, he missed time with an elbow flexor strain that limited him to 58.2 innings.
  
  Scouting Report: Roa has the makings of four average or better pitches with average control. He’s more of a sum-of-the-parts pitcher than one who depends on any one plus offering. His four-seam 91-94 mph fastball is a solid-average offering and he’s shown he can bump it up to 96-97 when he reaches back. His low-80s changeup has developed into his best pitch, an above-average offering with solid deception and fade. It’s his best two-strike pitch, as he can get swings and misses from hitters who chase it. His low-80s slider and high-70s curveball are both average as well. His ability to throw strikes with both breaking balls and his fastball keeps hitters guessing.
  
  The Future: What Roa needs more than anything is a season when he can make 20-plus starts and get to 100 or more innings. He has the arsenal to be a No. 4 starter, but durability is a key component of filling that role.
  
• July, 2021 Scouting Report
  TRACK RECORD: After two years as a reliever and fill-in starter for Texas A&M, Roa moved into the Aggies' weekend rotation and had an uneven four starts before the coronavirus pandemic ended the college season, but the Reds and other teams were enthused by what they saw. Roa had sports hernia surgery that kept him from pitching at the alternate training site or instructional league.
  
  SCOUTING REPORT: Roa has four pitches that project as average or above-average, and his spin rates and movement profiles are promising. He has a clean arm action and a durable frame and above-average control. Roa will succeed in pro ball if he can throw strikes and mix his pitches to keep hitters from sitting on his average, 92-94 mph fastball. Roa can throw his above-average slider for strikes or bury it, and his above-average changeup's deception gets awkward swings and misse. His average curveball is useful as a change of pace option early in counts.
  
  THE FUTURE: Roa's varied assortment of usable pitches, frame and delivery should lead him to be a fourth or fifth starter. If he can sharpen the slider or changeup a little further he could end up being even better.
• March, 2021 Scouting Report
  TRACK RECORD: After two years as a reliever and fill-in starter for Texas A&M, Roa moved into the Aggies' weekend rotation and had an uneven four starts before the coronavirus pandemic ended the college season, but the Reds and other teams were enthused by what they saw. Roa had sports hernia surgery that kept him from pitching at the alternate training site or instructional league.
  
  SCOUTING REPORT: Roa has four pitches that project as average or above-average, and his spin rates and movement profiles are promising. He has a clean arm action and a durable frame and above-average control. Roa will succeed in pro ball if he can throw strikes and mix his pitches to keep hitters from sitting on his average, 92-94 mph fastball. Roa can throw his above-average slider for strikes or bury it, and his above-average changeup's deception gets awkward swings and misse. His average curveball is useful as a change of pace option early in counts.
  
  THE FUTURE: Roa's varied assortment of usable pitches, frame and delivery should lead him to be a fourth or fifth starter. If he can sharpen the slider or changeup a little further he could end up being even better.
• December, 2020 Scouting Report
  TRACK RECORD: After two years as a reliever and fill-in starter for Texas A&M, Roa moved into the Aggies' weekend rotation and had an uneven four starts before the coronavirus pandemic ended the college season, but the Reds and other teams were enthused by what they saw. Roa had sports hernia surgery that kept him from pitching at the alternate training site or instructional league.
  
  SCOUTING REPORT: Roa has four pitches that project as average or above-average, and his spin rates and movement profiles are promising. He has a clean arm action and a durable frame and above-average control. Roa will succeed in pro ball if he can throw strikes and mix his pitches to keep hitters from sitting on his average, 92-94 mph fastball. Roa can throw his above-average slider for strikes or bury it, and his above-average changeup's deception gets awkward swings and misse. His average curveball is useful as a change of pace option early in counts.
  
  THE FUTURE: Roa's varied assortment of usable pitches, frame and delivery should lead him to be a fourth or fifth starter. If he can sharpen the slider or changeup a little further he could end up being even better.