2007 Top 200 Draft Prospects: 161-180

2007 DraftThis is Baseball America's comprehensive review of the top prospects for this year's draft, based on discussions with high school and college coaches and professional scouts and executives. Our list is based on the overall professional potential of the players, not necessarily on where we expect them to get drafted. Capsules were written by Jim Callis, Aaron Fitt, John Manuel and Alan Matthews.

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161. Tim Smith, of
School: Arizona State. Class: Jr.
B-T: . Ht.: 6-2. Wt.: 220. Birthdate: 6/14/86.
Scouting Report: A Toronto native, Smith has been drafted twice before (21st round in 2004, 17th round in 2005) but figures to make the third time a charm. He entered his first Division I season to some acclaim after he hit .450 at Midland (Texas) Junior College last spring during a record-setting career there (he owns six significant hitting records). Smith then dominated in the Northwoods League last summer, ranking as the league's top hitting prospect. However, he had trouble cracking the lineup in a crowded Arizona State outfield. His above-average bat eventually got him at-bats, and he showed a patient approach suited for the top of the lineup. His power doesn't project to be more than average. He's an average runner who can handle center field but profiles better in left, making him more of a 'tweener along the lines of ex-big leaguer Todd Dunwoody. His arm is fringe-average, if not below.

.373 134 45 50 11 0 3 24 7

162. Andrew Lambo, 1b/of
School: Newbury Park (Calif.) HS. Class: Sr.
B-T: L-L. Ht.: 6-4. Wt.: 200. Birthdate: 8/11/88.
Scouting Report: Last summer, Lambo proved his ability to rise to the occasion last fall, when he pitched his Reds scout team to the World Wood Bat Association championship in Jupiter, Fla. Lambo was on the team for his hitting prowess, and he's a prospect for his bat, but his pitching career has been impressive as well, including nine complete games this spring. Offensively, Lambo has been one of SoCal's best hitters for several years thanks to a smooth lefthanded swing and solid-average power performance. Scouts doubt his power down the road due to a level swing path. Defensively, Lambo's athletic enough for an outfield corner and plays a solid first base. Most scouts grade his tools average across the board, with his hit tool being above-average. Talent isn't Lambo's problem; makeup is. He's at his second high school after being kicked out of the first school, and he turned off scouts with his immaturity in numerous interviews this spring. His bat still might be enough to get him picked in the first three rounds.

.458 72 32 33 8 0 10 30 12

163. Forrest Moore, lhp
School: Parkview Baptist HS, Baton Rouge, La. Class: Sr.
B-T: L-L. Ht.: 6-2. Wt.: 190. Birthdate: 5/12/89.
Scouting Report: Moore is reminiscent of Louisiana high school product Wade LeBlanc, who went on to star at Alabama and became a Padres second-round pick in 2006. They have similar builds, below-average fastballs and good curveballs. Moore throws harder than LeBlanc, 86-88 with a peak of 90 mph, and could pick up a little velocity as he fills out his 6-foot-2, 190-pound frame. He isn't as polished as LeBlanc, who has a significantly better changeup and command. There's some effort to Moore's delivery and he lands on a stiff front leg, which causes him to leave pitches up in the strike zone. Though he needs some work, there are clubs interested in Moore--but not if his reported second-round price tag is correct. If he doesn't turn pro, he'll head to Mississippi State, where his father Dana was a punter and placekicker. In college, Moore also could see action as a lefthanded-hitting first baseman, but he'll be a strictly a pitcher in pro ball.

6 3 1.38 0 0 51 14 20 105

164. Brad Mills, lhp
School: Arizona. Class: Jr.
B-T: R-L. Ht.: 6-0. Wt.: 185. Birthdate: 3/5/85.
Scouting Report: Last year, Mills got some scouts' hopes up by flashing plus fastball velocity to go with a plus changeup and potentially above-average breaking ball. Some thought he was a third- or fourth-round talent, but the former walk-on at Arizona was honest with clubs and said he didn't want to sign as a junior. Instead, the civil engineering major--who attends Arizona on an academic scholarship--returned for his senior season and has been the Wildcats' No. 2 starter. The Blue Jays drafted him in the 22nd round but he didn't seriously consider signing, and he was having another solid season. His repertoire is much as it was last year, though he has pitched more in the 87-90 mph range without touching 92 as he did last year. His breaking ball has improved, as he throws it with more power than he did before. Mills is still a semester short of graduation and likely will want to finish up, which could cost him instructional league and set his development back. He also needed a cortisone shot late in the spring to help a balky back that caused him to miss a pair of starts down the stretch, further clouding his draft status.

9 4 3.70 13 0 80 76 26 79

165. Colby Shreve, rhp
School: CC of Southern Nevada. Class:
B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-4. Wt.: 200. Birthdate: 1/5/88.
Scouting Report: Shreve was a two-way player for Las Vegas' Bonanza High, highly sought after for his curveball on the mound and solid, short swing from the right side of the plate. He committed to Nevada-Las Vegas but was disappointed when he wasn't drafted at all last year, so he changed his mind and went the junior-college route. He's not under control and could be the first junior-college player picked nationally. It appears the snub motivated him, as he emerged stronger and throwing harder after working in "The Box," a wood-contained resistance-training machine built by a local Las Vegas chiropractor. Shreve has increased his velocity significantly, growing into his 6-foot-5 frame and firing some 95s along the way, sitting at 90-94 mph for several innings with his fastball. His slider showed average depth and command, and his overall feel was surprisingly good for his experience level. As the season wore on, Shreve's velocity dipped into the 89-90 mph range, and he didn't even earn a start in Southern Nevada's regional playoff loss to rival Western Nevada. A good student, Shreve will have the option of going to a Division I program if the draft doesn't work out, or he could return to Southern Nevada for his sophomore season.

5 2 2.52 16 1 54 39 27 55

166. Jeremy Hefner, rhp
School: Oral Roberts. Class: Jr.
B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-5. Wt.: 200. Birthdate: 3/11/86.
Scouting Report: Scouts were aware of Hefner in 2006, but he got lost in the shuffle at Seminole State (Okla.) Junior College. The pitching staff also included Drew Miller (who got $300,000 as a draft-and-follow from the Padres), Duke Welker (a likely third-round pick this June) and hard throwers John Maschino and Ryan Lindgren. Hefner went undrafted after the Mets had drafted him in the 46th round in 2004 and the 48th round in 2005. He made a jump forward this spring under the tutelage of Oral Roberts coach Rob Walton. Welker's fastball velocity has risen from 87-89 mph a year ago to 89-94, and his command of the pitch has improved as well. Walton has taught him an effective two-plane slider, and Hefner also uses a curveball and changeup. He also has size (6-foot-5, 200 pounds), athleticism and good arm action in his favor. Hefner moved from the bullpen to the rotation in March, and his stock has climbed as well. He should go in the first five rounds, perhaps higher if he performs well against tougher competition in the NCAA playoffs.

8 1 2.67 8 0 71 51 22 92

167. Leroy Hunt, rhp
School: Sacramento (Calif.) CC. Class: So.
B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-6. Wt.: 220. Birthdate: 11/28/87.
Scouting Report: The Reds drafted Hunt in 2005 as an outfielder out of high school and followed him to Sacramento City College. He had enormous raw power as a hitter but never seemed to get comfortable at the plate against good velocity, so Sac City moved him to the mound to take advantage of his arm strength. While he remains raw, Hunt has one of the best fastballs in the state. It has heavy sink and boring armside run, and Hunt throws it in the 90-94 mph range, touching 95 at times. His secondary stuff (slider, changeup) is almost nonexistent, but that didn't stop him from a 40-inning scoreless streak this spring, including a pair of outings against better-regarded Matt Thompson of Santa Rosa (Calif.) Junior College. Hunt needs to develop either his slider or changeup to have a second pitch, a concern because he hasn't shown much aptitude so far. He's committed to Oral Roberts, but should be an easy sign. With his intimidating size (6-foot-6, 220 pounds) and fastball, he profiles as a power reliever.

7 3 1.87 15 1 72 50 22 76

168. Brad Meyers, rhp
School: Loyola Marymount. Class: Jr.
B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-6. Wt.: 195. Birthdate: 9/13/85.
Scouting Report: Projected as a possible sandwich pick coming out of high school in 2004, Meyers was a 14th-round pick out who eschewed pro ball to pitch at Loyola Marymount. Three years later, the scouting consensus sees him as fourth- to sixth-round talent. But with the shortage of college righthanders and his still-projectable 6-foot-6 frame, Meyers should go higher. Some rumors had him headed for the sandwich round, perhaps to Oakland. Meyers remains a projection pick, as his velocity has never jumped into the plus range. He has flashed 92-93 mph readings on his fastball from time to time but more ordinarily sits in the 88-90 mph range, at times with a good downhill plane. Meyers' best present attribute is his ability to throw strikes with the fastball, as well as his late-breaking curveball, a solid-average pitch. He also throws a slider and changeup. Meyers doesn't fare well in comparison to other SoCal college righthanders such as UCLA's Tyler Brummett, Pepperdine's Barry Enright or Cal State Fullerton's Wes Roemer in his competitiveness or mound moxie, but he has a better pro body and better stuff.

4 4 3.46 15 0 109 116 23 85

169. Cale Iorg, ss
School: Alabama. Class:
B-T: . Ht.: 6-2. Wt.: 175. Birthdate: 9/6/85.
Scouting Report: While Iorg was wrapping up his two-year Mormon mission in Lisbon, Portugal, his parents' home phone was ringing as scouts tried to gauge his interest in signing a pro baseball contract. Iorg posted a respectable .280 average with five homers and 15 stolen bases in 2005 as Alabama's everyday shortstop, but he has been abroad since then. The son of former big league infielder Garth and nephew of big league outfielder Dane, Cale had achieved assistant to the president status during his mission, a high-ranking position, but was scheduled to return to the U.S. July 14, which would give the team that drafts him a month to work him out and negotiate before the new signing deadline. Iorg hasn't played in two years, but as a freshman he showed outstanding feel for all phases of the game, a smooth swing and good actions up the middle. He wasn't going to sign for a pittance, but a team will take a chance on him later in the draft just to see what might happen this summer.


170. Evan Reed, rhp
School: Cal Poly. Class: Jr.
B-T: . Ht.: 6-4. Wt.: 225. Birthdate: 12/31/85.
Scouting Report: Reed wasn't on many follow lists in high school; his graduating class at Quincy (Calif.) High, about 80 miles northwest of Reno, Nev., had just 63 students. He had chances to earn a spot in Cal Poly's rotation but has settled in as the team's closer, and ranked second in the Big West Conference this spring in saves. More importantly, Reed has proven durable with 30 appearances. He has good size and a strong body, delivering fastballs in the 94-96 mph range, though his stuff usually has a bit better life and command when he's in the 92-94 range. Reed throws a slider and changeup but works aggressively off the fastball, keeping the ball down and in the ballpark (no home runs allowed in 40 IP). He has a chance to move through the minors quickly if he can throw more consistent strikes.

4 3 2.75 28 8 36 32 16 34

171. David Mailman, 1b
School: Providence HS, Charlotte, N.C. Class: Sr.
B-T: L-L. Ht.: 6-1. Wt.: 170. Birthdate: 10/7/88.
Scouting Report: Not unlike the sentiment regarding fellow North Carolina prep prospect Justin Jackson, Mailman's future as a professional draws a wide range of opinion. He has a smooth lefthanded swing that appears to have lots of power projection, but whether his thin frame fills out is the question stumping most scouts. His approach is quiet and balanced, as he uses the entire field and shows the beginnings of an ability to lift balls out of the park. Based in part to a lack of strength, his bat speed is fringy at present and he can be beaten with good fastballs above his hands. He's a below-average runner but a plus defender, with good footwork around the bag and confidence handling throws in the dirt. He has a solid-average arm. Mailman also has championship-caliber makeup, and fits the profile of a potential college masher if he honors his commitment to Wake Forest. It might require third-round money to get him signed this spring.

.541 61 41 33 6 1 14 33 14

172. Brandon Hicks, ss
School: Texas A&M. Class: Jr.
B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-2. Wt.: 205. Birthdate: 9/14/85.
Scouting Report: Last year, Hicks was the best junior college position player in Texas who wasn't under control to a big league club. He wanted to sign after helping San Jacinto reach the Junior College World Series, but scouts questioned his bat and he went undrafted. That won't happen again, not after he has transferred to Texas A&M and led an Aggies resurgence. His instincts allow him to play above his tools, and he's not short there. He's a 6-foot-2, 205-pound athlete who has improved at the plate while continuing to make all the plays at shortstop and use his solid speed to steal bases. A&M coaches have helped Hicks make adjustments with his swing, though he still pulls off breaking pitches. He hasn't pitched this spring, but he flashed a low-90s fastball and promising secondary stuff while at San Jacinto. There still are some scouts who aren't sold on his hitting ability, but Hicks' performance and tools could get him overdrafted (perhaps as high as the second round) in a draft short on college middle infielders.

.345 223 63 77 16 2 9 51 25

173. Patrick Johnson, rhp
School: St. Stephens HS, Conover, N.C. Class: Sr.
B-T: R-R. Ht.: 5-10. Wt.: 170. Birthdate: 8/14/88.
Scouting Report: Johnson played alongside David Mailman on the same travel team and has earned a reputation as one of the best high school pitchers in North Carolina. While Madison Bumgarner and Sam Runion have more physical bodies and louder stuff, Johnson pounds the zone with his fastball and can carve up hitters with his feel for pitching. At 5-foot-10, 170 pounds, he's undersized, but he has an efficient delivery which he repeats well. His fastball sits near 88 mph, touching 92, and he can spot it to all four quadrants of the strike zone. His tight curveball has plus bite and he throws it where he wants to. He also shows feel for a solid-average changeup. Johnson probably won't be taken in the top three rounds and was expected to honor his commitment to North Carolina, where he could be the same kind of pitcher as Robert Woodard, who set the school record for career wins this season.

7 2 1.56 11 0 58 35 18 109

174. Scott Carroll, rhp
School: Missouri State. Class: Jr.
B-T: . Ht.: 6-5. Wt.: 220. Birthdate: 9/24/84.
Scouting Report: Signability concerns have caused Carroll to slide in two previous drafts, but he should go in the first five rounds this June. He ranked as Missouri's top high school pitching prospect in 2003 (ahead of eventual 2006 first-rounders Max Scherzer and Kris Johnson), when a scholarship to play quarterback at Purdue scared teams off. Carroll didn't play much in football and wasn't allowed to play baseball in two years with the Boilermakers, so he transferred to Missouri State. He started for the Bears at quarterback in the fall of 2005 and showed a live arm as a pitcher last spring, but his demands for top-three-round money as a draft-eligible sophomore knocked him down to the Angels in the 16th round. Los Angeles wanted to follow his progress in the Cape Cod League, but he came down with biceps tendinitis and returned to Missouri State, giving up football. Carroll has shown progress in his second year back on the mound, and has added 15 pounds of muscle and now carries 220 on his 6-foot-5 frame. His fastball sits at 91-92 mph and touches 94, and he has done a better job of maintaining his velocity through games and the season as a whole. He has replaced a flat changeup with a low-80s splitter and added a low-80s slider to go with a slow curveball that he uses as a change of pace. Carroll trusts his secondary stuff and locates his pitches more now than he did a year ago. He projects more as a reliever in pro ball, a role in which he could air out his fastball and wouldn't have to rely on his breaking pitches as much.

4 3 2.80 11 0 74 85 21 66

175. Dan McDonald, rhp
School: Seton Hall. Class: Jr.
B-T: L-R. Ht.: 6-0. Wt.: 195. Birthdate: 4/17/86.
Scouting Report: McDonald entered the spring as a player that many scouts in the Mid-Atlantic had pegged as a potential riser. He'd shown above-average velocity in high school as well as last summer in the Cape Cod League, when he posted a 1.04 ERA and struck out 18 in 17 relief innings. He also has athleticism, another reason scouts were optimistic about him. While McDonald's velocity was climbing back toward 92 mph as the Pirates' season was winding down, but has pitched more in the 88-90 mph range. He'll flash an average slider at times, though he tends to get around it. McDonald has good feel for pitching and solid-average command, but with limited room for additional growth and mediocre success this spring, he probably won't be drafted until the fourth- to seventh-round range.

2 2 2.76 24 6 33 21 17 36

176. Austin Bailey, rhp
School: Prattville (Ala.) HS. Class: Sr.
B-T: B-R. Ht.: 6-0. Wt.: 190. Birthdate: 10/10/88.
Scouting Report: When Bailey hooked up with an East Cobb (Ga.) travel team as an underclassman, he proved he was capable of competing with the best high school players in the country. He's a strong, undersized athlete with good tools on both sides of the game. His arm strength is his best asset. He has an aggressive mentality and comes right after hitters with a three-pitch mix. His fastball ranges from 88-93 mph. His secondary stuff is fringy, though he'll flash a curveball with depth and tight rotation. He has rudimentary feel for his changeup. He's still mostly a thrower and lacks much feel for pitching. Because Bailey doesn't project to get much bigger or throw much harder, he's considered a third- to fourth-round talent. Judging his signability has been difficult, and if he slips past the fifth round he could elect to attend Alabama.

8 2 0.97 11 0 65 37 14 85

177. Brian Friday, ss
School: Rice. Class: Jr.
B-T: . Ht.: 5-11. Wt.: 180. Birthdate: 12/16/85.
Scouting Report: Friday went from hitting .256 with one homer as a freshman to a team-high .353 with nine home runs as a sophomore, helping lead Rice to a third-place finish at the 2006 College World Series. He hasn't hit with the same authority this spring, though he's doing a better job of controlling the strike zone. That will be key if he's going to be a leadoff or No. 2 hitter in pro ball, as will adding strength to his 5-foot-11, 180-pound frame. His plus speed, baserunning instincts and bunting ability are suited for the top of the order. Friday covers a lot of ground at shortstop and enhances his strong arm with a quick exchange. His lone defensive flaw is that he tends to sit back on grounders. He's not as physically imposing as Texas A&M's Brandon Hicks, but some area scouts believe in Friday's bat more than Hicks'.

.340 203 45 69 21 1 2 23 12

178. Justin Grimm, rhp
School: Virginia HS, Bristol, Va. Class: Sr.
B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-3. Wt.: 175. Birthdate: 8/6/88.
Scouting Report: Rural Southern Virginia produced the season's first pop-up player when the little-known Grimm came out of the gate showing low-90s velocity. He missed his junior season and skipped the travel ball and showcase tour because of an arm injury. He broke his arm when he fell down in a parking lot, and a pin that was inserted near his elbow to stabilize the bone was removed last fall. Grimm's feel for pitching and mechanics remain extremely raw, but he has a lightning-quick arm and will flash two plus pitches. His fastball sits between 91-93 mph. His breaking ball has improved, showing sharp break and more of a true curveball action as opposed to the slurvy pitch he showed early in the season. He has the prototypical power pitcher's delivery, with a stiff front leg and a tendency to fly open with his lead shoulder, leading to below-average command. Grimm originally committed to Walters State (Tenn.) Junior College, but opted to commit to Georgia after he had some success this spring. He was considered signable in the top five- to seven-rounds, and could go as early as the third.

6 0 0.69 6 0 34 12 10 68

179. Daniel Elorriaga-Matra, c
School: Douglas HS, Parkland, Fla. Class: Sr.
B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-1. Wt.: 180. Birthdate: 12/28/88.
Scouting Report: Elorriaga-Matra entered his senior season ranked just a notch below Yasmani Grandal and Danny Rams among Florida's prep catching prospects. He's athletic and limber, shows plus arm strength from behind the plate and occasionally drives the ball well from the right side of the plate. While he has all the tools to become a plus defender, his receiving technique needs work and his low arm slot becomes a problem when his throws tail badly to the first-base side of second base. At the plate, he's spread out in his set-up and has a two-piece swing that's mechanical and makes it tough to make consistent hard contact. He shows solid-average power when he squares up balls. Based primarily on his defensive upside, Elorriaga-Matra should be drafted in the top five rounds.

.418 79 31 33 6 0 9 38 12

180. Drew Storen, rhp
School: Brownsburg (Ind.) HS. Class: Sr.
B-T: B-R. Ht.: 6-1. Wt.: 170. Birthdate: 8/1/87.
Scouting Report: One of the most polished high school pitchers in the draft, Storen also is one of the oldest, as he'll turn 20 in August. He can't match the upper-90s velocity of fellow Indiana high school pitcher Jarrod Parker, a certain first-rounder, but on his good days Storen will show livelier stuff. He gets good sink on an 87-91 mph fastball and owns a true slider. He also has a solid changeup and shows a feel for changing speeds and locating his pitches. He's not big at 6-foot-1, but he could add a considerable amount of strength because he carries just 170 pounds. Storen's delivery features a lot of twisting, which one scout likened to Luis Tiant's. Some scouts don't like his mechanics, but they give him deception and don't prevent him from throwing strikes. The son of XM radio baseball broadcaster Mark Patrick, Storen is expected to be a tough sign because he has committed to Stanford.

5 1 0.71 7 0 40 12 4 62

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