Prospect Hot Sheet Chat

Kyle Glaser took reader questions Aug. 11

Kyle Glaser: Hey everyone, look forward to chatting with you before I head out to see Chance Adams pitch at Durham tonight. Let’s get crackin’

Darren (Philly): It is usually a mistake to scout a stat line, but is it better to view JP Crawford's season by doing just that and moving on rather than over-analyzing the awful start or more recent month and a half or sustained success?

Kyle Glaser: It’s best to be moderate in your expectations of J.P. Crawford. You have to remember he struggled badly for a full year at Triple-A, it was the most of last season in addition to this season too. But he plays a very good defensive shortstop, gets on base and is making needed approach adjustments to be a threat at the plate, as he has been this past month. Is he a perennial all-star shortstop who is a franchise cornerstone? No. But an SS who plays good defense and gets on base, even a bottom of the order one, is valuable at the big league level.

Grant (NYC): How much of what Neuse is doing can be attributed to the hitter's haven known as the CAL?

Kyle Glaser: Not much at all. People need to realize, now that High Desert and Bakersfield (an underrated hitters park) are gone, really the only true hitters parks remaining in the Cal League are Lancaster and Visalia. Everything else is neutral or slant pitcher-friendly. Neuse did have seven games at Visalia, but he’s done his raking at home in Stockton (.390, 4 HR) and Modesto (.571, 3 HR). Modesto, especially, is impossible to go yard in, and he did it three times in three games. He’s legit.

Tushar (Poolesville, MD): Longtime Nat's fan here and long time believer in Giolito. Last year wasn't pretty and this year it feels like there's some momentum. He fell quite a bit on midseason ranks, BA's included. What kind of future do you see? Ace potential seems like less than 10% but maybe a really good #2 with strikeout upside? Or am I still dreaming too much?

Kyle Glaser: You’re still dreaming too much. He doesn’t have the command for that. You’re looking at a No. 4/5 starter or long reliever. Which still makes him a top 5 percent outcome of all minor leaguers. He’s getting better and rounding into form a bit, but there are still too many walks and pitches out of the zone that are a result of questions about his athleticism in his delivery. He can contribute, but it’s not in a frontline role.

Andrew (Los Angeles): How impressed are you with Fernando Tatis Jr's development throughout the year? He seems to be walking more and striking out less lately. I think he had a four walk game last week.

Kyle Glaser: Tatis’ adjustments are one of the untold stories of the year. Early in the year all opponents had to do was throw him three breaking balls in the dirt and he was done. In about a month, he flipped the switch, and now is tracking them well, punishing them when they hang, and letting them go when they aren’t what he wants. For an 18 year old kid to adjust as quickly as he did, that elevates his prospect stock every bit as much as his considerable tools and production.

a.j. (las vegas): a lot of the White Sox pitching porspects have reliever risk. Who do you think makes it into their rotation over the next couple of years?

Kyle Glaser: Michael Kopech and Dane Dunning. Lopez and Giolito will make starts but ultimately in the end figure to be more effective as a relievers. Cease likely ends up a closer, and Alec Hansen is anyone’s guess. By the way, with how quickly pitchers can turn a corner or collapse, at least one of these predictions is guaranteed to be wrong

Steve (California): All three players the As got for Madson and Doolittle seem to be doing well. Treinen is closing well; Luzardo is pitching well and Neuse is hitting well. Between the three, who do you think will have the biggest impact for the As? And are Neuse and Luzardo top 100 prospects at this point?

Kyle Glaser: They aren’t yet, but they have a chance to get there. Ultimately, the power hitting infielder raking in full season ball is much more likely to ever see the majors than the rookie ball lefty coming off TJ, so you have to say Neuse at this point for biggest impact, simply because of the likelihood. That said, no one should be shocked if Luzardo ends up being a dynamite lefty if he stays healthy.

CCP (Taiwan): May I say Kolby Allard is just another Paul Maholm? Thanks.

Kyle Glaser: Paul Maholm started for a decade in the big leagues and had a perfectly respectable career (four seasons of over 100 ERA+, a few others around league average). That’s an outcome better than 90 percent of top pitching prospects at any given time. Is Kolby Allard expected to be better than that? Yes. But if he isn’t, and is a starter in the big leagues for a decade as Maholm was, no one should consider him a bust or disappointment. That’s a career most pitching prospects will never sniff.

Jeff (Minnesota): How good can Eloy Jiminez be? Frequent all star or legitimate superstar (Bryant, Harper type)? Thanks!

Kyle Glaser: He can be a legitimate superstar, offensively at least.

Anthony (Maryland): Of course we still have to see the rest of the season play out, but pick your 5 favorite guys to vie for top overall prospect heading into next season (not including rosario or moncada who hopefully graduate) ?

Kyle Glaser: Fun one. Assuming Rosario, Moncada and Devers graduate, probably have to go Acuna, Vlad Jr., Jimenez, Torres and (surprise) Nick Senzel. College 3Bs who just hit and hit and hit from day one have a really good track record. Give me that impact bat with growing power any day.

Chris (Newport Beach, CA): Can you talk a little bit about Mitchell White? Walter Buehler & Yadira Alvarez get almost all the attention while White is somewhat overshadowed. What are his short term/long term projections? Could he peak as a #2 starter.

Kyle Glaser: Glad you brought White up. He’s been 94-97 mph with an absolute hammer of a breaking ball. I did get one No. 2 starter projection on him, a few other No. 3s. Health has been his only thing, but when he’s on, it’s something else

Andrew (Dayton): Thanks for the chat! I've been fortunate to watch both Trammell and Siri this year, which of the two do you think has the biggest upside?

Kyle Glaser: Taylor Trammell. He was one of the last cuts from our Midseason Top 100 and is making every case to be on there next time. As long as his hittability stays consistent (it was up and down month-to-month until July, where it’s been good ever since), he’ll have a chance to be special

Pete (Woodside): Do you think the Braves will consider turning Albies into a right hand hitter against righties; he seems to be struggling as a lefty?

Kyle Glaser: Not yet. You give it time. But his struggles hitting lefty compared to righty are long documented, even dating back to his A-ball days. But Albies is 20. He’ll get some instruction, see if it gets better. It’s not going to be a one-year fix, but to say a 20-year-old with his athletic gifts can’t improve wouldn’t be wise.

Keith (Farmington, CT): Thanks Kyle. Does Keibert Ruiz's performance at Low and High A at age 19 give him a shot at next spring's Top 100?

Kyle Glaser: Yes. A million times yes. The numbers are great. The scouting reports from both the Midwest League and the Cal League are glowing. He’s earned his way up there, high.

Jim (b): How do Hoskins and Kingery grade out on intangibles? Phillies could really use a few grinders that also demonstrate baseball IQ.

Kyle Glaser: Great. Got to chat with both of them at the Prospect Pad. Both smart, mature and know how to get the most of their athletic gifts on the field.

Mike W. (Herrin, IL): Besides A. Reyes and maybe J. Flaherty, are there any pitchers in the Cardinals farm system with front-of-the-rotation potential?

Kyle Glaser: No. Very, very, very few pitchers have legitimate front of the rotation potential. There are maybe 5-10, tops, and of those only 2-4 will reach it. To even have one, as the Cardinals do with Reyes, is rare and something to be happy to have.

David (St Louis, MO): Thanks for the chat. Is there anything that you can tell me that will make me not like Keibert Ruiz? Should be 19 in AA next year and already growing into power and a ++ defender? What's not to like?

Kyle Glaser: The defense is not there yet. He’s still very raw behind the plate, and his arm and throwing mechanics are not very good right now, worse than previously thought to be. BUT…he just turned 19. He has a lot of time to smooth all that out. Plus-plus defender is too generous, but can he be a .300, 20 HR catcher with above-average D? Yes, and there are very, very, very few catchers around who can do that.

Ron (Pittsburgh): Hi do you see Mitch Keller becoming part of the Pirates rotation in 2018 ? Could he start next year in AAA or more likely AA to start next year Thanks

Kyle Glaser: He’s more likely to start in AA next year. He’s only going to get 4-5 Double-A starts this year, and there is no reason to rush him.

Roger (Greenville, SC): I was surprised to see Max Fried skipped over AAA and moved to the pen at the same time. If it's a win-now move, well this season is a lost cause. If it's a development / see what you have move, why the rush? Yes, he's on the 40-man, but it's not like he's out of options next spring. How should I view this move?

Kyle Glaser: You should view it purely as a “bring him, let’s see what he can do”. Nothing more, nothing less. He has the FB-CB combo to be effective in relief. If you’re the Braves, and you have other better pitching prospects you expect to fill the rotation long term, why not give it a shot?

Kaz Miller (Seychelles): Shouldn't someone replace Daz Cameron on this list? It has already been decided he is a bust after a whopping 500 PA in the minors.

Kyle Glaser: Man, some people really have a hard time letting things go. Guy has a good week, he gets on the list. He had a good week, he got on the list.

Robert (New York): Can you rate the following arms: Triston McKenzie, Ryan Borucki, and Michael Kopech. Any have the potential to be a 1 or 2 starter?

Kyle Glaser: Kopech, McKenzie, Borucki. Kopech has No. 1 potential, McKenzie there is a chance at a No. 2

Satchel (Las Vegas): Kyle, what up man, Where does Willie Calhoun play in Texas, when is he up, and is a full season .280-25-80 a good estimate of production? Thanks

Kyle Glaser: Hey there. He’ll get a shot to play left field, some of the reports we had about him out of OKC was that he was playable there. And I wouldn’t put 30-35 home runs past Calhoun playing his home games in Arlington. There is some real, real power in there.

Tatum (Clearwater): Kyle Rate Brett Honeywell v Chance Adams. Where do each fit in an MLB rotation, Honeywell #2 potential, Adams #3 potential?

Kyle Glaser: Honeywell is really, really good. Yes there is No. 2 potential with him. Adams generally gets No. 3-4 put on him, a clear few ticks behind Honeywell. I’m seeing Adams for myself for the first time tonight. Looking forward to it

Dave (Williamsburg): Is Ronald Acuna the best prospect in the minors?

Kyle Glaser: He’s one of them.

Billy (Regina): How worried are you with Leody Taveras's recent struggles at the plate?

Kyle Glaser: Not tremendously. You see the ability in there, he’s just really young and really raw. Give him some time.

Tatum (Clearwater, Fla): What is the latest on Jose De Leon in Tampa. Is he healthy and what is the outlook for him, Starting or pen. Has is star dimmed due to injuries.

Kyle Glaser: He’s healthy, he’s been pitching in HiA the last week or so. I’ll say this: The Jose DeLeon I saw in Durham was not the same Jose DeLeon I saw in Rancho Cucamonga a few years ago or with the Dodgers last year. The constant injuries haven’t helped. Right now, you have to consider him no more than a wild card

Bob (Texas): If you were the Rays and the Braves ask for Archer who would you ask for: Allard, Wentz, Soroka, Gohara or Wright?

Kyle Glaser: I wouldn’t get your hopes up. The Rays are in playoff contention, they’re gearing up for another run to stay there, and Archer is signed at a reasonable cost for four more years after this. He’s not going anywhere.

Sergio Q (Tijuana, Mexico): Reports from Avila's 17 K day, had him at around 94-95 mph. How have his off speed pitches progressed, what is your opinion of him and his current hot streak?

Kyle Glaser: You’re high on the velo. It was sit 92, touch 94. His curveball has always been an out pitch, and he is showing feel for his slider and change. Most evaluators thing he has a big league shot, but as a 5th starter/swingman type because of size/durability concerns

Satchel (Las Vegas): Kyle Will Joe Jimenez ever get it together....the Det closer job appeared to be waiting on him, but his repeatedly struggles are an issue. Does he still fit into Detroit's plans?

Kyle Glaser: He does figure into Detroit’s plans, but remember command was always a big issue for him and was part of the reason he didn’t project as a closer for most. You’ll remember our Josh Norris took some heat for leaving Jimenez off the Tigers top 10 before the season, and this was why (and Josh has been proven correct). Jimenez’s command struggles are a real issue. Still, power arms like that end up getting a chance to hang around in bullpens for awhile. He can get there.

Charles (Des Moines, IA): What are the ceilings for Tyler Mahle and Jack Flaherty? Do either contribute this year to their respective teams. I see them as good if not great #2 - #3 starters.

Kyle Glaser: You’re high on both. Flaherty is more of a 3, Mahle a 4. Again, having quality mid-rotation and back-end starters are huge. Very few teams have them. That is not a bad outcome for either.

Izzy (Virginia): Looking at BA top 10 prospects I noticed that all but Brendan Rodgers were international free agents- correct? This seems extraordinary to me should we read into this? Has this been a trend over the years? Thx

Kyle Glaser: Nick Senzel was a draft guy, but yes, eight of the 10 are international guys. And there has always been a tremendous amount of talent in Latin America. Go back to 1997, for example, and you’ve got Vladimir Guerrero, Andruw Jones, Ruben Rivera, Miguel Tejada in the top 10 with Jose Cruz and Bartolo Colon just missing. Eight of 10 is higher than usual, yes, but there has always been talent abroad and it’s continually getting recognized

Jose (Louisville): Does Tyler Mahle have a 3rd offering good enough to keep him in a major league rotation?

Kyle Glaser: Not yet, but that’s what development is for. His changeup and slider both need work.

Matt (Va): The White Sox seem like they move prospects slower than some?Do you think Eloy and Zack Collins spend the rest of the season in Winston-Salem?

Kyle Glaser: The White Sox only began moving prospects slower this year as part of a concerted effort to do so. And at this point, barring an injury at higher levels, it is reasonable to expect Jimenez and Collins to stay put.

Dan (MD): Is Brandon Marsh a potential top guy? I know pioneer league is hard to judge but man that is a noisy stat sheet.

Kyle Glaser: Glad you brought him up. Yes, Marsh has all the tools and the early production you want to see from potential top guys down the road. Only thing with him is injuries. Has to stay healthy, which he hasn’t. But there is a lot, a lot to like there

Adam (Las Vegas): Cal Quantrill's first season back from TJ has now reached the 100 innings mark. Hi-A and AA are two difficult levels to pitch at, and he's been solid if not spectacular. Has a larger body of work affected your opinion on him as a prospect at all?

Kyle Glaser: No really. We had a him as a potential No. 2/3 starter coming into the season, and he has solidified that projection with his strong performance this season. He is what we thought he’d be, and that was a really good starting pitcher

AJ (Providence): Here's a prospect cold sheet question: How much are you concerned about development time lost to injury? I'm thinking of guys like Juan Soto and Carter Kieboom.

Kyle Glaser: When it’s one injury, or one every couple of years, it’s not that concerning. It’s sports. Guys get hurt. But when it’s constant injuries, one or two every year, then it becomes concerning.

Brad (NJ): First Can we please stop posting people asking why player X isn't on the hotsheet, it is always the same answer, there were 20 better options. Second, have a bet about Francisco Mejia, will he bat over .300 with 20HR or more and 8 SB or more in any of the next 3 years starting 2018.

Kyle Glaser: Haha glad you caught that. I’ve deliberately not been answering those questions. And regarding Mejia, I don’t think you’ll see 8 SBs in the big leagues. SBs go down, not up, as guys rise higher and higher, and he’s a 4-6 SB guy right now. But .300 with 20 HRs, while lofty, I’m not going to put past him. Guy is such a gifted hitter, I think he could get to it by his third full year in the majors after assimilates and gets comfortable catching at the ML level, which will be his focus whenever he gets the call

Mike (Texas): Hi Kyle, thank so very much for your time. Austin Hays has been raking quite well, I sense that this is somewhat of a surprise and that his power has developed qicker than expected. How do you project him in the big leagues - do you see him as a middle of the order bat? He would benefit with a few more walks - Thanks!

Kyle Glaser: Power grows as guys move up, and for a guy to have 27 HRs in his first full season, plus will get the benefit of playing in Camden Yards…at this point I think you kind of have to give him the benefit of the doubt as far as being a potential middle of the order guy, although most evaluators we speak with have him as more of a No. 5-6 hitter than a 3 or 4.

Adam (Las Vegas): Scrolling through Delvin Perez's stat line and I was taken aback. Then I saw it was happening in the rookie league and I fell over. This does not bode well for him, does it?

Kyle Glaser: No, it does not. There is a strong suspicion among evaluators his previous success was PED fueled. It has not been pretty, at all.

Chip (Cobb County): Is William Contreras the best Braves catching prospect?

Kyle Glaser: I’m glad you brought Contreras up. This kid is really, really good. As in, you could walk in knowing nothing and he catches your eye, both at the plate and behind the plate. Considering the defensive limitations of Brett Cumberland and Alex Jackson, I’m inclined to say yes

John (Chicago): With Dom Smith getting promoted today, I wanted to get your thoughts on another Mets 1B: He's not hot-sheet worthy, but Pete Alonso has put up .337/.418/.646 slash line over the second half in the Florida state league (which I think is a tough league for power.

Kyle Glaser: Dude can rake. The power is absolutely real. Underestimate him at your own risk.

Ryan (Abingdon, MD): Braden Bishop has played well since getting promoted to Double-A. He is hitting but not for any power whatsoever. Will this keep him from being a regular in Seattle? They've played Guillermo Heredia full-time for stretches this year.

Kyle Glaser: Bishop has a chance to be a regular even without power because his defense is so good. If he hits .290 with 20 doubles, 20 stolen bases and Gold Glove defense in center field, he’ll be just fine even if there are only 3-4 HRs

Jake (Denver, CO): McMahon just got the call. Reactions?

Kyle Glaser: Really athletic, makes a ton of contact, going to have a chance to elevate his numbers in Coors Field. He’s legitimately a good hitter who adjusts well and will give you solid defense at multiple positions. Lot to like with McMahon

Rick (LA): Speaking of hot, Chris Taylor another bomb last night. 922 OPS. Is he now a big league regular? Nice trade pickup..

Kyle Glaser: Well, he’s playing every day for the best team in baseball, that’s kind of the definition of a big league regular. But yes, Chris Taylor has been absolutely lights out this year. Props to the Dodgers scouting staff, don’t think anyone ever saw this coming from him

AA (Midwest): Brendan Rodgers- what's your view on him? Seems to be getting little focus lately.

Kyle Glaser: He has a chance to be a perennial All-Star shortstop. Everything about him as a hitter – his hand-eye, his instincts, ability to use the whole field, pitch recognition — it’s all top notch, and his plus arm, sure hands, and advanced instincts will keep him at short despite some of the lack of quick-twitch, a la Corey Seager defensively. He’s one of the top 10 prospects in baseball for a reason.

bryan (atlanta): Ok, Kyle, you teased us with your comment on 5-10 pitchers with ace like potential. I think we know the AA and above list fairly well. Want to list 2-3 of them from high-A and below, if there are a few down there?

Kyle Glaser: Forrest Whitley, Michel Baez, Hunter Greene. All have a shot, all have a long way to go with plenty of potential pratfalls ahead. But it’s in there for all of them.

Jim (Newport): How long does it take for you to be comfortable putting a prediction on a player. I.e. Michel Baez? How many starts do you need to see to "accurately" gauge a players ceiling, floor, and grade tools?

Kyle Glaser: It’s an interesting question. Generally for me I’d like to see at least 3-4 starts for a pitcher…seeing how they hold up start 1 to start 2 to start 4, what stuff they have one one day vs. another when something just isn’t working. I think after that point you can get a general feel for a guys strengths and weaknesses at that moment in time and where the potential pratfalls lie with reasonable expectations. You can get a rough sense on a guy after one start, but to get the fuller picture I think it’s important to see how everything varies or holds up over a 3-4 start window. That’s just me though.

Jerry (Syracuse): What happened to Forrest wall?

Kyle Glaser: He dislocated his shoulder diving for a ball at the start of the year and is out for the season. Tough break for the kid

Kyle Glaser: Alright everyone, I have to get out to go cover Chance Adams at Durham tonight. Thanks for chatting with me, and have a great weekend