Reds Spend Big For 16-Year-Old Dominican

Update: More On Juan Duran

The international signing period is still four months away, but the
Reds have already made a big splash in the Dominican Republic, giving a
$2 million signing bonus to 16-year-old outfielder Juan Duran, a player
who many thought would not be eligible to sign until July 2.

“We’ve scouted him extensively,” Reds scouting director Chris
Buckley said. “We had not thought he was eligible until this coming
July 2. But we found out he was eligible, and when we did we were able
to react. (Assistant general manager) Bob Miller and (director of Latin
American scouting) Tony Arias deserve the credit on this one, because
Bob was going over guys we were preparing for this year’s signing
period, and he said, ‘You can sign this guy right now.’

“We did not know
that, but when we found that out, we were able to go get him because of
the work Tony has done. He compares favorably to this year’s high

Players who are 16 years old are eligible to sign with major league
teams during the international signing period, which lasts from July 2
to Aug. 31. Players who turn 16 years old during the international
signing period are eligible to sign with teams on their birthdays.

Duran’s birthday is Sept. 2, 1991, making him a 16-year-old who
seemed to have barely missed the cutoff point to sign during last
year’s international signing period, and it appeared he would have to
wait until the commencement of the 2008 period to
sign. However, the rules state that for an international player to be
eligible to sign, he must be 16 years old at the time of the signing
and turn 17 years old by either Sept. 1 or by the end of his first
professional season.

Players signed during the international signing period are not eligible to play that same year, so their first professional season comes the following calendar year. For example, a player signed during the 2007 international signing period would have his first professional season be the 2008 season.

The Reds realized that they could sign Duran if they assigned him to
their 2008 roster in Billings in the Rookie-level Pioneer League, where
the regular season ends on Sept. 5. Since Duran will turn 17 before the
end of the 2008 Pioneer League season, he was eligible to sign before the 2008
international signing period and was eligible to sign back on his birthday last year.

One American League international scouting director said that he had Duran in for a workout as recently as last month.

“I think it caught everybody by surprise,” he said. “Even his agents were promoting him as a July 2 guy. He really doesn’t follow the July 2 cutoff for this year. I guess we all thought that, with the Sept. 1 cutoff in mind, we all figured he was eligible this year instead of last year.”

Duran, who bats and throws righthanded and checks in at roughly 6-foot-6, 190 pounds, likely will
not play a game this year in the PL, however, where at 16 years old he
would be by far the youngest player in the league. The Reds cannot assign him to the Gulf
Coast League, since the GCL season ends on Aug. 27, so sending him to
the GCL would void his contract.

Buckley and Arias were both with the Blue Jays when the team
drafted outfielder Alex Rios as an 18-year-old with the 19th overall
pick in the 1999 draft.

“He compares favorably, only he’s bigger and stronger at this age
than Rios was,” Buckley said. “He’s more physical, and he has shown
some of the same feel for hitting that Alex displayed.

“We don’t have a second-round pick this year so we wanted to be creative and get more talent any way we can.”

The $2 million bonus that Duran received was $500,000 more than the
Red Sox gave to Dominican third baseman Michael Almanzar, who received
the highest bonus of the 2007 international signing period. In 2006,
the Giants gave Dominican first baseman Angel Villalona that year’s top
bonus at $2.1 million. It is the highest international bonus in Reds
history, and tied for the third-largest signing bonus given to any
player in club history.

Arias said that Duran was one of the Reds’ top targets for July 2 before they realized within the last week that they could sign him.

“His body and offensive ability stick out like a sore thumb,” Arias said. “In batting practice, he was just hitting them over the trees in our complex, hitting them out to center and right-center field. You can tell just tell from the way the ball jumps off his bat.

“I’ve never seen a 16-year-old with this type of ability. I talked to some people in the Dominican Republic who crossed paths with Vladimir Guerrero at that age, guys who have been scouting in the Dominican for more than 20 years, and they said they’ve never come into contact with a bat like this. He’s got 80 power potential (on the 20-80 scouting scale) and just gets tremendous loft. In my opinion, in terms of his bat and his body, he’s a better overall package than Angel Villalona. We wanted to change the perception in the baseball industry that Cincinnati is a cheap organization. We want to get back to being the Big Red Machine.”

Another AL international scouting director said his team was also interested in Duran.

“We liked him,” another AL international scouting director
said. “We saw him as a corner outfielder, big, long-limbed, real bat
potential. He’s definitely a guy a lot of people liked.”

One National League international scouting director compared Duran’s body to that of a young Juan Gonzalez.

“He might end up being in center field because he’s a plus runner.
It’s all going to come down to how big he gets and if he slows down,” the scout said. “He’s
going to put on some weight, so whether he retains that speed will tell
if he ends up at a corner.

“He’s got some bat speed, and the power will come from the bat speed, but it all comes down to how thick he grows.”

The same NL international scouting director also noted that Duran
has been bothered by an elbow problem—which Arias said might have something to do with Duran having grown six inches in the past year—and that Duran only started
throwing as far as 40 feet last month.

“He went to a tournament in Puerto Rico in the winter, and he didn’t
throw there. I saw him in February, and all he did was hit. I don’t
know what the up-to-date situation with his elbow is, but maybe they
already checked him. Was he worth that kind of money? I guess he was to
the Reds because they think he’s an impact guy, but to me, I don’t
think so.”

One AL international scouting director called him “one of those guys who don’t come around very often.”

“He’s got all the tools,” he said. “He’s a pretty good player, very advanced for his age. I think it was a good investment. He’s a good athlete, he has above-average power right now and he has a chance for 80 power (on the 20-80 scouting scale). He demonstrated every ability that you like to see in a kid. He’s a very outgoing kid, good swing. There’s no doubt about his approach, bat speed and power . . . he has all the common denominators you like to see, good balance, rhythm and a pretty good idea of what to do at the plate.

“If he has to go to a corner (outfield position), he certainly has the power to go there. But right now I’d give him every opportunity to play center field because he’s light on his feet and has a good idea how to play out there. He’s probably 6-foot-6, 195 pounds, somewhere in that area, so he could gain a whole 40 pounds with no problem. You look at this guy, and you hate to compare guys to major league players, especially at his age, but he could be a young Dave Winfield in the making.”