By Matt Eddy
January 28, 2013



Baseball America's Top 10 Prospects lists are based on projections of a player's long-term worth after discussions with scouting and player-development personnel. All players who haven't exceeded the major league rookie standards of 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched (without regard to service time) are eligible.

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TOP TEN PROSPECTS

1. Casey Kelly, rhp 2. Max Fried, lhp 3. Jedd Gyorko, 2b/3b 4. Austin Hedges, c 5. Rymer Liriano, of 6. Matt Wisler, rhp 7. Cory Spangenberg, 2b 8. Joe Wieland, rhp 9. Adys Portillo, rhp 10. Robbie Erlin, lhp

BEST TOOLS

Best Hitter for Average Jedd Gyorko Best Power Hitter Rymer Liriano Best Strike Zone Discipline Jaff Decker Fastest Baserunner Mallex Smith Best Athlete Brian Adams Best Fastball Adys Portillo Best Curveball Max Fried Best Slider Matt Wisler Best Changeup Keyvius Sampson Best Control Joe Wieland Best Defensive Catcher Austin Hedges Best Defensive Infielder Stephen Carmon Best Infield Arm Edinson Rincon Best Defensive OF Rico Noel Best Outfield Arm Yeison Asencio

PROJECTED 2016 LINEUP

Catcher Yasmani Grandal First Base Yonder Alonso Second Base Cory Spangenberg Third Base Chase Headley Shortstop Jace Peterson Left Field Jedd Gyorko Center Field Cameron Maybin Right Field Rymer Liriano No. 1 Starter Casey Kelly No. 2 Starter Max Fried No. 3 Starter Cory Luebke No. 4 Starter Matt Wisler No. 5 Starter Joe Wieland Closer Andrew Cashner

TOP PROSPECTS OF THE DECADE

Year Player, Pos 2012 Org 2003 Xavier Nady, of Giants 2004 Josh Barfield, 2b Orioles 2005 Josh Barfield, 2b Orioles 2006 Cesar Carrillo, rhp Tigers 2007 Cedric Hunter, of Cardinals 2008 Chase Headley, 3b Padres 2009 Kyle Blanks, 1b Padres 2010 Donavan Tate, of Padres 2011 Casey Kelly, rhp Padres 2012 Anthony Rizzo, 1b Cubs

TOP DRAFT PICKS OF THE DECADE

Year Player, Pos 2012 Org 2003 Tim Stauffer, RHP Padres 2004 Matt Bush, SS Rays 2005 Cesar Carrillo, RHP Tigers 2006 Matt Antonelli, 3B Yankees 2007 Nick Schmidt, LHP Rockies 2008 Allan Dykstra, 1B Mets 2009 Donavan Tate, OF Padres 2010 *Karsten Whitson, RHP U. of Florida 2011 Cory Spangenberg, 2B Padres 2012 Max Fried, LHP Padres *Did not sign

LARGEST BONUSES IN CLUB HISTORY

Donovan Tate, 2009 $6,250,000 Matt Bush, 2004 $3,150,000 Austin Hedges, 2011 $3,000,000 Max Fried, 2012 $3,000,000 Joe Ross, 2011 $2,750,000

PADRES LINKS

Padres Team Page Padres Top 10 Scouting Reports Last Year's Padres Top 10 Prospects 2012 Draft: Padres 2012 Draft Report Cards: San Diego Padres Complete Index of Top 10 Prospects Pre-Order the 2013 Prospect Handbook

The Padres opened the 2012 season with a $55.2 million payroll, the lowest in the game. But Josh Byrnes, in his first year as the team's general manager, had every reason to expect in-season improvement as a young roster gained experience and San Diego's abundance of upper-level pitching prospects made their way to Petco Park.

After all, the Athletics followed a similar course all the way to a division crown over in the American League.

In fact, the Padres did improve in the second half, going 47-36 in the final three months of the season. But a miserable first half condemned them to their fourth second-division finish in the last five years. Worse, their on-the-cusp pitching prospects turned out to be on-the-shelf bystanders, with the four brightest plagued by arm injuries.

Righthanders Casey Kelly and Joe Wieland and lefties Robbie Erlin and Juan Oramas had pitched Double-A San Antonio to the Texas League title in 2011. San Diego hoped that quartet, following additional seasoning in Triple-A, would provide rotation support in the second half of 2012. Instead, Wieland and Oramas had Tommy John surgery in the summer, while lesser elbow injuries sidelined Kelly for three months and Erlin for nearly that long.

Even young big league pitchers weren't immune to the injury bug. Cory Luebke had Tommy John surgery. Andrew Cashner, acquired in an offseason trade that sent young slugger Anthony Rizzo to the Cubs, missed half the season with a strained lat muscle.

Kelly recovered in time to make his big league debut on Aug. 27, throwing six scoreless innings against the Braves. He turned in only one more quality start in his next five turns, though he showed enough to rank No. 1 on this list.

Two other rookies, both acquired from the Reds in an offseason deal for Mat Latos, provided ample hope for the future. First baseman Yonder Alonso played 155 games, batted .273/.348/.393 and led all big league rookies with 39 doubles. Catcher Yasmani Grandal homered from both sides of the plate for his first two big league hits on June 30 and batted .297/.394/.469 in 60 contests.

Grandal won't be available to San Diego for the first 50 games of 2013, however, because he must sit out after a drug test turned up elevated levels of testosterone.

While Alonso, Grandal and Kelly may form the core of the next successful Padres club, Chase Headley may be suiting up for another team by then. The 2005 second-rounder drew significant trade interest after turning in a career year in 2012, swatting 31 homers and leading the National League with 115 RBIs.

For the second year in a row, San Diego invested $11 million in the draft. It dropped a combined $5 million on a pair of prep pitchers, Max Fried and Walker Weickel, one year after spending $5.75 million to sign another high school duo, righthander Joe Ross and catcher Austin Hedges.

Jaron Madison, the scouting director who ran both of those drafts, left in August to take the same job with the Cubs, following former Padres GM Jed Hoyer and vice president of scouting and player development Jason McLeod to Chicago. The Padres promoted national crosschecker Billy Gasparino to replace Madison.

Led by Hedges and Ross, low Class A Fort Wayne advanced to the Midwest League finals. But in terms of overall minor league winning percentage, only the Reds and Angels fared more poorly than the Padres (.455) last season.

Scouting reports for the Top 10 Prospects (How to subscribe)

Pre-Order the 2013 Prospect Handbook 30 scouting reports on every team