By Ben Badler
November 19, 2009


Baseball America's Top 10 Prospects lists are based on projections of a player's long-term worth after discussions with scouting and player-development personnel. All players who haven't exceeded the major league rookie standards of 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched (without regard to service time) are eligible. Ages are as of April 1, 2009.

Scouting reports for the Top 10 Prospects  (How to subscribe)
Astros Chat  Ben Badler	Pre-Order the 2010 Prospect Handbook 30 scouting reports on every team

TOP TEN PROSPECTS

1. Jason Castro, c 2. Jiovanni Mier, ss 3. Jordan Lyles, rhp 4. Sammy Gervacio, rhp 5. Chia-Jen Lo, rhp 6. Ross Seaton, rhp 7. Tanner Bushue, rhp 8. Jay Austin, of 9. Jon Gaston, of 10. T.J. Steele, of

BEST TOOLS

Best Hitter for Average Jason Castro Best Power Hitter Jon Gaston Best Strike-Zone Discipline J.B. Shuck Fastest Baserunner Jay Austin Best Athlete Jay Austin Best Fastball Arcenio Leon Best Curveball Ashton Mowdy Best Slider Sammy Gervacio Best Changeup Jordan Lyles Best Control Fernando Abad Best Defensive Catcher Jason Castro Best Defensive Infielder Jiovanni Mier Best Infield Arm Jiovanni Mier Best Defensive Outfielder T.J. Steele Best Outfield Arm Yordanny Ramirez

PROJECTED 2013 LINEUP

Catcher Jason Castro First Base Lance Berkman Second Base Tommy Manzella Third Base Chris Johnson Shortstop Jiovanni Mier Left Field Carlos Lee Center Field Michael Bourn Right Field Hunter Pence No. 1 Starter Roy Oswalt No. 2 Starter Wandy Rodriguez No. 3 Starter Jordan Lyles No. 4 Starter Bud Norris No. 5 Starter Ross Seaton Closer Sammy Gervacio

TOP PROSPECTS OF THE DECADE

Year Player, Position 2009 2000 Wilfredo Rordiguez, lhp Out of baseball 2001 Roy Oswalt, rhp Astros 2002 Carlos Hernandez, lhp Rays 2003 John Buck, c Royals 2004 Taylor Buchholz, rhp Rockies 2005 Chris Burke, 2b Braves 2006 Jason Hirsh, rhp Yankees 2007 Hunter Pence, of Astros 2008 J.R. Towles, c Astros 2009 Jason Castro, c Astros

TOP DRAFT PICKS OF THE DECADE

Year Player, Position 2009 2000 Robert Stiehl, rhp Out of baseball 2001 Chris Burke, ss Braves 2002 Derick Grigsby, rhp Out of baseball 2003 Jason Hirsh, rhp (2nd round) Yankees 2004 Hunter Pence, of (2nd round) Astros 2005 Brian Bogusevic, lhp Astros 2006 Max Sapp, c Astros 2007 *Derek Dietrich, 3b (3rd round) Georgia Tech 2008 Jason Castro, c Astros 2009 Jiovanni Mier, ss Astros

LARGEST BONUSES IN CLUB HISTORY

Chris Burke, 2001 $2,125,000 Jason Castro, 2008 $2,070,000 Max Sapp, 2006 $1,400,000 Brian Bogusevic, 2005 $1,375,000 Jiovanni Mier, 2009 $1,358,000

ASTROS LINKS

Astros' Team Page Astros Top 10 Scouting Reports  Last Year's Astros Top 10 Prospects 2009 Draft: Astros (Basic Database) 2009 Draft: Astros  (Advanced Database) 2009 Draft Report Cards: Houston Astros  Complete Index of Top 10 Prospects Pre-Order the 2009 Prospect Handbook

Want to build a farm system overnight? One glance at Baseball America's organization talent rankings suggests a proven template.

The Rangers went from 28th entering 2007 to fourth in 2008 to first in 2009, getting a boost from the prospects they received by trading Mark Teixeira, not to mention Eric Gagne and Kenny Lofton. The Athletics spent three years near the bottom of the rankings before zooming from No. 27 in 2008 to No. 3 in 2009, thanks largely to the talent they received in deals for Joe Blanton, Rich Harden, Dan Haren and Nick Swisher.

At the July 31 trading deadline, the Astros had a .500 record and ranked sixth in the National League wild-card race. Despite having the oldest roster in baseball and a run differential that suggested the team was due for regression, Houston stood pat rather than seizing an opportunity to trade big leaguers and rebuild a farm system that ranked dead last entering 2009.

The Astros tanked afterward, finishing 74-88 to drop to 17 games under .500 since they played in the 2005 World Series. Despite the eighth-highest Opening Day payroll ($103 million), Houston ranked 27th in baseball in scoring and 23rd in runs allowed.

Focusing on the big league club and neglecting their farm system, the Astros haven't acquired a significant prospect via trade in years. Instead, their strategy has been to sign veteran free agents (costing them draft picks as compensation) and to deal prospects for veterans. That philosophy proved painful last season when Ben Zobrist emerged as one of the game's better players, three years after Houston sent him to the Rays in a deal for Aubrey Huff. Zobrist wasn't highly regarded at the time but has proven a costly loss.

After years of poor drafts that culminated with fifth-rounder Collin DeLome being their highest signed pick in 2007, the Astros restructured their scouting department. Bobby Heck's first draft as scouting director in 2008 has yielded two promising prospects, catcher Jason Castro and righthander Jordan Lyles. Neither was a consensus choice at their draft slots, but Houston has seen rewards from going against the industry grain.

Castro has the potential to be the franchise's most successful first-round choice since Brad Lidge in 1998. Houston's only other first-rounder to reach the big leagues since then was Chris Burke, the 10th overall pick in 2001, and he never developed as hoped.

Houston's 2009 first-rounder, shortstop Jiovanni Mier, also has exceeded expectations thus far. After Castro, Mier and Lyles, the talent and depth in the system drops off precipitously. Houston's domestic affiliates posted the worst combined winning percentage (.420) in baseball last season, and no U.S. affiliate has produced so much as a winning record since 2007. The farm system isn't likely to provide much help in 2010 with the big league club needing to fill holes throughout its lineup and rotation.

Where do the Astros go from here? Heck was a regional crosschecker for the Brewers when they built through the draft and jumped from No. 30 to No. 1 in BA's talent rankings from 2001 to 2004. Houston will have a prime opportunity to add to its system with the eighth overall pick in the 2010 draft, its highest selection since taking Phil Nevin No. 1 overall in 1992.

Dealing their big leaguers for youngsters could accelerate an Astros turnaround as well. But under owner Drayton McLane, the team has shied away from committing to rebuilding.

Scouting reports for the Top 10 Prospects  (How to subscribe)

Pre-Order the 2010 Prospect Handbook 30 scouting reports on every team