By J.J. Cooper
November 18, 2009


Baseball America's Top 10 Prospects lists are based on projections of a player's long-term worth after discussions with scouting and player-development personnel. All players who haven't exceeded the major league rookie standards of 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched (without regard to service time) are eligible. Ages are as of April 1, 2009.

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TOP TEN PROSPECTS

1. Todd Frazier, of/2b/3b 2. Yonder Alonso, 1b 3. Mike Leake, rhp 4. Chris Heisey, of 5. Juan Francisco, 3b 6. Yorman Rodriguez, of 7. Travis Wood, lhp 8. Matt Maloney, lhp 9. Brad Boxberger, rhp 10. Zack Cozart, ss

BEST TOOLS

Best Hitter for Average Yonder Alonso Best Power Hitter Juan Francisco Best Strike-Zone Discipline Yonder Alonso Fastest Baserunner Theodis Bowe Best Athlete Yorman Rodriguez Best Fastball Brad Boxberger Best Curveball Mike Leake Best Slider Mark Serrano Best Changeup Travis Wood Best Control Matt Maloney Best Defensive Catcher Chris McMurray Best Defensive Infielder Miguel Rojas Best Infield Arm Juan Francisco Best Defensive Outfielder David Sappelt Best Outfield Arm Yorman Rodriguez

PROJECTED 2013 LINEUP

Catcher Ryan Hannigan First Base Yonder Alonso Second Base Brandon Phillips Third Base Todd Frazier Shortstop Zack Cozart Left Field Joey Votto Center Field Drew Stubbs Right Field Jay Bruce No. 1 Starter Johnny Cueto No. 2 Starter Homer Bailey No. 3 Starter Mike Leake No. 4 Starter Aaron Harang No. 5 Starter Bronson Arroyo Closer Brad Boxberger

TOP PROSPECTS OF THE DECADE

Year Player, Position 2009 2000 Gookie Dawkins, ss Marlins 2001 Austin Kearns, of Nationals 2002 Austin Kearns, of Nationals 2003 Chris Gruler, rhp Out of baseball 2004 Ryan Wagner, rhp Nationals 2005 Homer Bailey, rhp Reds 2006 Homer Bailey, rhp Reds 2007 Homer Bailey, rhp Reds 2008 Jay Bruce, of Reds 2009 Yonder Alonso, 1b Reds

TOP DRAFT PICKS OF THE DECADE

Year Player, Position 2009 2000 David Espinosa, ss Mariners 2001 *Jeremy Sowers, lhp Indians 2002 Chris Gruler, rhp Out of baseball 2003 Ryan Wagner, rhp Nationals 2004 Homer Bailey, rhp Reds 2005 Jay Bruce, of Reds 2006 Drew Stubbs, of Reds 2007 Devin Mesoraco, c Reds 2008 Yonder Alonso, 1b Reds 2009 Mike Leake, rhp Reds

LARGEST BONUSES IN CLUB HISTORY

Chris Gruler, 2002 $2,500,000 Yorman Rodriguez, 2008 $2,500,000 Homer Bailey, 2004 $2,300,000 Mike Leake, 2009 $2,270,000 Drew Stubbs, 2006 $2,000,000 Juan Duran, 2008 $2,000,000 Yonder Alonso, 2008 $2,000,000

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The Reds have been in rebuilding mode for a decade, even if they didn't always realize it.

Cincinnati hasn't finished with a winning record since 2000, though it's hard to pinpoint a time at which the club truly cashed in and planned for tomorrow. A fallow farm system in the first half of the decade made it almost impossible to build from within. Even now that the system has started to produce players, the Reds have continued to teeter in the no-man's land between being competitive and building for the future.

It was much the same story in 2009. On July 4, the Reds sat a game above .500 and two games out of first place in the National League Central. For a moment, it appeared the Reds would be a part of a pennant race for the first time since Barry Larkin was their shortstop.

But it was just a mirage. Edinson Volquez went down in early July with an elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery. Jay Bruce broke his wrist in the middle of the month, and Chris Dickerson was lost soon afterward with back spasms. The team quickly fell apart, going 8-19 in July to drop to 10 games out of first place.

Owner Bob Castellini wants to see a winner sooner than later, so instead of being sellers at the trade deadline, Cincinnati decided to buy. The Reds traded their top pitching prospect (Zach Stewart) and their best relief pitching prospect (Josh Roenicke) to upgrade from 26-year-old Edwin Encarnacion to 34-year-old Scott Rolen at third base. The move was intended to bring a veteran bat and leadership, but it required a steep price in prospects to bring in Rolen and get the Blue Jays to pay the remainder of his 2009 salary.

Predictably, the trade did nothing to turn around Cincinnati's season. The Reds finished 13 games behind the Cardinals, something they could have done without Rolen.

But more importantly, the addition of the veteran third baseman strained the team's already tight budget. Cincinnati has $59.25 million committed to seven players (including Rolen's $11 million) for 2010—even though the team was expected to cut up to $5 million from its $71 million payroll.

That means that there is little choice but to look to the farm system to fill several glaring holes.

While they weren't rebuilding, the Reds did try out 17 rookies in 2009 thanks to injuries and necessity. Veterans Ramon Hernandez and Willy Tavares were expensive busts, so Ryan Hanigan and Drew Stubbs had displaced them by season's end. Paul Janish and Adam Rosales got most of the playing time on the left side of the infield, with less success. Despite that, Janish headed into the offseason as the favorite to be the team's 2010 shortstop because of his steady glove.

The most important development was the apparent breakthrough of Homer Bailey, who ranked No. 1 on this list in 2005-07 but had trouble making the jump to the majors. He went 4-1, 2.08 over his final seven big league starts to secure a spot in the Reds' 2010 rotation.

With Bruce, Stubbs and Joey Votto forming the core of the lineup, and Bailey and Johnny Cueto headlining the pitching staff, Cincinnati has a good nucleus to build around. But with an owner and a fan base itching to move past a decade of losing and a surplus of prospects at already-occupied positions, the Reds seemed poised to dispense their prospects in trades to make a push in 2010 rather than build a long-term foundation from within.

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