By Jim Callis
November 26, 2007

Baseball America's Top 10 Prospects lists are based on projections of a player's long-term worth after discussions with scouting and player-development personnel. All players who haven't exceeded the major league rookie standards of 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched (without regard to service time) are eligible. Ages are as of April 1, 2008.

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TOP TEN PROSPECTS

1. J.R. Towles, c 2. Felipe Paulino, rhp 3. Troy Patton, lhp 4. Juan Gutierrez, rhp 5. Michael Bourn, of 6. Mike Costanzo, 3b 7. Bud Norris, rhp 8. Brad James, rhp 9. Chad Reineke, rhp 10. Eli Iorg, of

BEST TOOLS

Best Hitter for Average Jonny Ash Best Power Hitter Mike Costanzo Best Strike-Zone Discipline Jonny Ash Fastest Baserunner Michael Bourn Best Athlete Devon Torrence Best Fastball Felipe Paulino Best Curveball Bud Norris Best Slider Char Reineke Best Changeup Samuel Gervacio Best Control Troy Patton Best Defensive Catcher J.R. Towles Best Defensive Infielder Tommy Manzella Best Infield Arm Mike Constanzo Best Defensive Outfielder Michael Bourn Best Outfield Arm Jordan Parraz

PROJECTED 2011 LINEUP

Catcher J.R. Towles First Base Lance Berkman Second Base Chris Burke Third Base Mike Constanzo Shortstop Adam Everett Left Field Carlos Lee Center Field Michael Bourn Right Field Hunter Pence No. 1 Starter Roy Oswalt No. 2 Starter Matt Albers No. 3 Starter Felipe Paulino No. 4 Starter Troy Patton No. 5 Starter Wandy Rodriguez Closer Chad Qualls

TOP PROSPECTS OF THE DECADE

Year Player, Position 2007 1998 Richard Hidalgo, of Out of baseball 1999 Lance Berkman, of Astros 2000 Wilfredo Rodriguez, lhp Out of baseball 2001 Roy Oswalt, rhp Astros 2002 Carlos Hernandez, lhp Out of baseball 2003 John Buck, c Royals 2004 Taylor Buchholz, rhp Rockies 2005 Chris Burke, 2b Astros 2006 Jason Hirsh, rhp Rockies 2007 Hunter Pence, of Astros

TOP DRAFT PICKS OF THE DECADE

Year Player, Position 2007 1998 Brad Lidge, rhp Astros 1999 Mike Rosamond, of Out of baseball 2000 Robert Stiehl Astros 2001 Chris Burke, ss Astros 2002 Derick Grigsby, rhp Out of baseball 2003 Jason Hirsh, rhp (2nd) Rockies 2004 Hunter Pence, of (2nd) Astros 2005 Brian Bougusevic,lhp Astros 2006 Max Sapp, c Astros 2007 *Derek Dietrich, 3b (3rd) Did not sign *Did not sign

LARGEST BONUSES IN CLUB HISTORY

Chris Burke, 2001 $2,125,000 Max Sapp, 2006 $1,400,000 Brian Bougusevic, 2005 $1,375,000 Robert Stiehl, 2000 $1,250,000 Derick Grigsby, 2002 $1,125,000

ASTROS LINKS

Astros' Team Page Astros Top 10 Scouting Reports  Last Year's Astros Top 10 Prospects 2007 Draft: Astros (Basic Database) 2007 Draft: Astros  (Advanced Database) 2007 Draft Report Cards: National League  Complete Index of Top 10 Prospects Pre-Order the 2008 Prospect Handbook

In two years, the Astros went from World Series participant to a total rebuilding job. Their 73-89 finish marked just their second losing season since 1992, but it wasn't an anomaly. Though owner Drayton McLane expects his team to contend again in 2008, Houston's rise won't be as swift as its fall.

The Astros built a consistent winner through their farm system. Few teams worked the now-defunct draft-and-follow system or the Venezuelan market as well, and they also had a knack for finding quality, low-cost college seniors. But the talent has dried up this decade, and Houston has had to invest heavily on free agents to keep winning. That approach has proved costly, not only in terms of big league salaries but also in its affect on the club's drafts.

In three of the last five drafts, the Astros have forfeited their first-round pick as free-agent compensation. McLane has become more reluctant to offer arbitration to his own free agents, so only once during that period has Houston received bonus choices of its own. He also has been increasing unwilling to buck MLB's slot recommendations. All three of these factors resulted in a disastrous draft in 2007.

By signing Carlos Lee and Woody Williams as Type A free agents, the Astros surrendered their first two draft choices. Offering arbitration to three of their own Type A free agents—Aubrey Huff, Andy Pettitte and Russ Springer—was a low-risk proposition that could have yielded three first-round picks and three supplemental first-rounders, but Houston declined to do so. The Astros couldn't try to compensate by drafting players with high price tags because McLane refused to exceed MLB's guidelines.

Houston thought it had signing parameters in place with its first two choices, third baseman Derek Dietrich (third round) and righthander Brett Eibner (fourth), as well as righty Chad Bettis (eighth). But they all asked for more than slot money and wound up opting for college over pro ball. The Astros spent just $1.584 million on the draft, $3.6 million below the average of the other 29 teams.

They also haven't been aggressive internationally, especially since former director of Venezuelan scouting and development Andres Reiner left the organization in February 2006. Reiner, a pioneer in establishing a Venezuelan pipeline, helped sign players such as Bobby Abreu, Carlos Guillen and Johan Santana, as well as the club's current top pitching prospect, Felipe Paulino. The Astros haven't brought in any comparable foreign talents in recent years.

Disappointed with his club's performance on the field and in the front office, McLane has cleaned house. He fired general manager Tim Purpura and manager Phil Garner in August. Former Phillies GM Ed Wade assumed control of the front office in September and appointed interim manager Cecil Cooper on a permanent basis. Wade also restructured the scouting department, reassigning senior director of player personnel Paul Ricciarini and coordinator of amateur scouting Tad Slowik.

Wade's new scouting director is Bobby Heck, formerly the Eastern crosschecker for the Brewers. Heck contributed to a run of productive drafts in Milwaukee, but it's doubtful the Astros farm system or major league club will rebound without a shift in philosophy.

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