The Hot Sheet is back. I'm going to see two
first-round picks from the 2010 draft later tonight. Let's squeeze in
some baseball talk in the meantime.
Alex (Dallas): No Royals?!?!?! But really, thoughts on Moustakas, and Lamb's struggles? Rey Navarro for Helium watch?
Does seem a little strange to kick off the
Hot Sheet without a Royal, doesn't it? Lamb's had some problem throwing
strikes early, but I think he'll be fine, as will Moustakas. My only
concern with Moustakas is that if people expect him to by in KC by the
all-star break and making an impact at the big league level, they're
going to be disappointed, because his pitch selection is still an issue
and I'd expect his transition to the next level to take some time. As
for Navarro, it's a nice start, but I need to see more before I believe
in his bat being for real.
Frankie (Pittsburgh): Did Wily Peralta get any consideration for the list? thanks Ben
A final cut. He wasn't facing the most
daunting lineups, but when he's right, he's got solid-average or better
stuff across the board. With the shape the Brewers' farm system is in
and my lack of faith in Mark Rogers becoming anything more than a
serviceable reliever at best, you could make a good case for Peralta
being the best arm in that system.
Keith (Tennessee): Mesoraco looks ready for the show. Do you see the Reds moving Ramon Hernandez to make room for him?
I think he's very, very close to being big
league ready, I'm just not sure if the Reds will bring up a rookie
catcher to supplant a veteran in the midst of what should be a
post-season run. We saw it last year with Buster Posey, who was just a
special talent, but I could see a manager being reluctant to make the
move. If he's killing it to a .900 OPS through June though, yeah, I'd
bring him up if it were up to me.
MJ (Chicago): Is Darwin Barney really good enough to win the starting second base job for the Cubs? Will he be able to hit .300 this season?
I think he's bound to come back to Earth
soon. Not a guy who's going to strike out too much so he could hit .300,
but he's not a power guy and he hits the ball on the ground a ton, so
he has to rely on a lot of those balls sneaking through the infield for
hits. More of a bottom of the order hitter, for me.
Brent (Appleton): So what's the over/under on Brett Lawrie surviving, let's say, five seasons at 3B in the majors?
I know some scouts who saw him in spring
training who thought he looked better at third base than he ever did at
second, but I'm not keen on putting too much stock into spring reports.
His athleticism and his arm aren't in question, but the hands, the
ability to read hops, the internal clock that an infielder needs to have
aren't easy to bring along. My bet is he ends up in right field very
David (Toronto): Is Michael Taylor still a decent prospect. Is there any hope for him ever have a significant role with the A's?
I still hold out hope for him, if he can play healthy. I know in in the minority with that answer, though.
David (Toronto): Long term solution at 3B in Chicago, Viceido or Morel...and who has more upside?
Morel. Nothing flashy, just a solid
all-around guy. I don't know where Viciedo's future is, but he doesn't
have the defensive skill for third base and his complete lack of pitch
recognition doesn't play too well at first base or DH either.
H. Levine (The Dancefloor): Tough break on
Oscar Taveras' hamstring, but two home runs in 12 at bats for the 18
year old in the MWL? Does that REALLY small sample size reveal anything
that the Cards may have a legit prospect there?
Very disappointing injury, although not one
I'd expect to keep him out long or hamper him much going forward.
Definitely a possibly breakout guy, not sure he has any carrying tools
but a solid guy across the board who can do a bit of everything.
JAYPERS (IL): What's your early assessment of Harper thus far?
Same as before the season started.
World-class talent that's going to come with some strikeouts early in
his career, but he's essentially playing his senior year of HS in Low-A.
There are only a handful of kids on the planet who could handle that,
and he's one of them.
MJ (Chicago): Moustakas is off to a bad start
with a terrible 1 walk to 8 k's. He seems like he is going to end up
being a low on base guy who hits for good power. Does that sound about
I don't think anyone should expect him to
be a HIGH on-base guy because he's never going to walk a lot, but the
majority of your OBP comes from hits, not walks, and Moustakas should be
OK there. He's got plus-plus power but he doesn't pack the strikeouts
along with it because he's got a great, efficient swing and can use his
bat speed and strength to drive the ball. If he can keep his average up,
he'll be fine, and the power will be where he gets a lot of his value
MJ (Chicago): No love for David Sappelt? The Reds have a crowded outfield, any chance Sappelt gets a chance and wins a job?
Not going to be a star, but I think he fits
in somewhere along that fourth OF/occasional starter role, whether it's
with Cincinnati or another team with a better fit for him to play.
Justin (Cali): Your thoughts on Jays P prospect Aaron Sanchez and his potential?
Love the upside. Has all the ingredients you can ask for in a pitcher just out of high school.
Alex (Toronto): Rank them in order....
JP Arencibia, Travis d'Arnaud, Carlos Perez.
d'Arnaud, Perez, Arencibia, but Perez has the most upside of that group.
James (Dallas): Thoughts on Martin Perez. Should we expect awesomeness with consistency? What could he be with that combination
The early returns were great with reports
of him getting into the mid-90s with his fastball, which wasn't always
the case last year. He's not a large-frame guy, but if he can hold that
kind of stuff over the course of the season (and I think he can, at
least eventually), that's a frontline No. 1 or No. 2 starter.
Ben (Leland Grove): Was Swagerty one of your final cuts? What does he best project as - SP or RP?
Absolutely a final cut, very impressive
start between all the strikeouts and groundballs he's gotten early on. I
know a lot of the scouting community thinks he's a reliever, but at
this stage I think you have to let him start until he shows he has to be
moved to a relief role.
Matt (Whippleville, NY): With Jenrry Mejia off
to a solid start and the Mets' pitching abysmal, do you think the Mets
FO will stick to their guns and keep Mejia in AAA all year, or do you
think they'll promote him?
Given the unlikely chance the Mets contend
for the playoffs this year, I think they leave Mejia in Triple-A as long
as possible. Guy has a tremendous, tremendous fastball, but he needs to
be throwing more than 100 innings in a season and have the freedom to
work on his offspeed stuff and command of a fastball that darts all over
the place, and the best place for him to do that is in Buffalo.
Chris B. (Delta, BC): Who are the two first-rounders you're gonna see tonight?
Manny Machado and Christian Yelich, assuming they're both in the lineup.
Elliot (Youngstown OH): How do you like Lonnie Chisenhall's debut in Columbus ? Lots of xb hits.
Yup, the guy can flat-out hit. And I think
he's going to surprise people with those extra-base hits now that his
shoulder is healthy. It's not Moustakas-type power, but I'm counting on
20-25 home runs this year.
Joseph (Bozeman, MT): Is the prospect hot sheet
graded on the curve? If so, was there any consideration for Gorkys
Hernandez. An .810 OPS for him pretty much translates to about a 1.800
OPS for a Jerry Sands or Jesus Montero, doesn't it?
It's a balance of performance, age,
position, prospecty-ness, but I'll say there are scouts who've seen
Hernandez this year who say he's made strides with his swing. It's Gold
Glove defense, but cutting down on the length of his swing has been a
problem for him back to his Tigers and Braves days. I want to see him
keep this up for more than a week, but there's definitely a chance he's
in store for a real breakout.
John (Houston, TX): Rank these Catching Prospects - Montero, Mesoraco, Rosario,
I like that order, though with the oft-repeated caveat that Montero isn't any lock to stick behind the plate.
eastin (Louisiana): Is Goldschmidt for real?
He's killed the ball throughout his minor league career and had a very
nice(though small sample size) spring training this year.
I saw him his first series at Carolina when
he was on that tear, and there's some thing to like, but he's still
going to have to shake the "mistake hitter" tag from scouts. He sets up
wide, stays back well and he can drive the ball to all fields. No
questions about the power. He struggled some though when pitchers
elevated stuff up on him and they got him to chase some offspeed stuff
out of the zone, so I think he's still going to have to prove he can
make more contact against advanced pitchers.
Mike (Wilmington): How good could this
Wilmington staff be? Arguelles, Melville and Odorizzi all looked sharp
in their last outing. Will Arguelles regain his velocity?
It's a good one, although Odorizzi might be
advanced enough that I wouldn't be surprised if he's in Double-A by
midseason. Arguelles is a huge question mark. Shoulder injuries tend to
zap velocity and he's not going to be getting too many guys out going
forward with the velo he's showing now, but I think we have to wait
until later this summer to see how he's throwing given that he, you
know, hasn't pitched in what seems like forever.
Tom (Des Peres, MO): What will Jerry Sands need
to accomplish to get more respect from the prospect community? Big
numbers last year, were discounted as he was old for high A. Now he
gets dinged for hitting in Albq. Seems one of the better prospects with
a direct path to the big leagues with LAD problems in LF and Loney's
Well, he did make the Hot Sheet, right?
There's a lot of Jerry Sands fans in the office, not necessarily as a
superstar in the making, but definitely a guy who could be a solid to
above-average regular. Lord knows the Dodgers could use him with the
lineup they're putting out there right now.
Phil (Boston): Long term success - Cole or Kyle Drabek?
Drabek. The cutter he's learned is
absolutely filthy. He's going to walk his share of guys this year, but
once he learns how to command his two-seamer and his cutter, that's at
least No. 2 starter potential.
Phred (Lex, KY): Yorman Rodriguez has 2 HR so far...Too soon to call him the next Carlos Beltran?
Beltran was a much more advanced player at
the same age, and I've never heard a scout compare Yorman to Beltran.
Yorman has a lot of tools but he's a lot more raw at the plate. There's a
lot of scouts skeptical about his bat, so I'd like to see him hit for a
full season before getting too excited there.
Chris B. (Delta, BC): If you're the Pirates, who do you take 1-1?
I'm minor league prospects and
international only (only 11 more weeks until July 2), so I'd pick
whoever Jim Callis and co. say is the best player, which right now is
Rob (Chicago): How good is Jean Segura? Is he one of the best middle infielders in the minors?
Absolutely. Great tools on both sides of the ball with all-star potential.
Paul (Atlanta, GA): I was very impressed with Jacob Petricka's debut for Kannapolis. What's the rundown on him?
Great debut but I wouldn't read too much into it. With his fastball he should be dominating Low-A.
Al (NYC): Is Sands a better player right now than any of the 1B/LF options currently in LA?
It's close, but I would rather keep him in
Triple-A to get the extra developmental opportunities before bringing
him up later in the year.
Mikey (Chicagoland): Whats the difference between Zack Stewart & Drabek?
Drabek is younger and does almost
everything better: four-seamer, even two-seamer, cutter, I'd take his
curveball over Stewart's slider, and his changeup has more upside too.
David (Toronto): How far away is Wil Myers from contributing to the Royals lineup?
I'd bet on mid-2012.
Jesse (Cleveland): Will Drew Pomeranz be a top 20 prospect by the end of the year?
I certainly think he has that potential.
Ryan (Dallas): With Clint Robinson's hot start and Kila's slow start, could Robinson possibly be the first Omaha prospect called up to KC?
If they panic, maybe, but I'd be more inclined to give Kila a full season of at-bats.
Cory (Minnesota): Did Joe Benson get any consideration, looks like he is off to a nice start this year? What do see for his projection?
Got some consideration as a late cut. I'm a
believer in the tools and what he can bring to the table with his
defense and his power, with just enough contact to make it work.
Something along the lines of Mike Cameron, in a perfect world.
Daniel (Mcallen, tx): Hi, thanks for the chat.
What about Dee Gordon? he had a very good week, and with furcal injured
how long do we have to wait until he reachs Majors? Thanks,
Obviously a good prospect, just don't think
he's ready yet on either side of the ball and needs to get a lot
stronger. You can't have a guy, even at shortstop, slugging under .350,
which is what I fear he'd do if he were called up tomorrow.
Josh (Albany): Matt Harvey is a horse. He has
good bloodlines to be a good closer. Do you think he gets converted to
reliever/closer? Does he have a chance to make the show this year?
I think the days of the Mets pushing their
best starting pitching prospects like Jenrry Mejia to the bullpen are
over, so no, I think Harvey is a starter and has the potential to be a
front-end guy in their rotation. He won't be there next year, but I
don't think 2012 is out of the question.
Lorne (Toronto): Biggest suprise (Good and Bad) you've noticed this season, even though its still very early.
Starting with the bad, it would have to be
Wimmers. Hopefully he can put things together, because everything we've
heard from his first start was that he was all over the place, with more
pitches going to the backstop than landing for strikes. Josh Vitters'
start has been a pleasant surprise, and he's done it against some good
arms. Joe Savery who we hit on in Blast From The Past this week,
certainly wasn't a guy anyone here was expecting to be leading the
minors in hitting right now. On the mound, I think Trevor Rosenthal with
the Cardinals is opening some eyes with his fastball in Low-A and
Keyvius Sampson is starting to show why the Padres liked him so much a
couple years ago as well.
Joseph (Boston): Speaking of international prospects, any juicy rumors you've heard? What are the big names?
We'll start our July 2 reports for
subscribers next month. Love all the demand we're getting for
international amateur prospect reports, but these kids are still 16 and
sometimes 15, so we try to be careful with how we do things there to
make sure we're being responsible.
Brett (Altoona): What do you think of Tony Sanchez's slow start? Is he just not as good of a hitter as we thought?
He's played seven games. There's nothing to be alarmed about.
Tim (Colorado): At all worried about Tyler Matzek's start, particularly after an underwhelming pro-debut last season?
I'm not worried about his stuff, but I yes, I'm absolutely worried about his command.
Joel (KCK): Rough start for Castellanos. There
seemed to be some pretty high expectations for him coming into this
season. How do his tools grade out on the 20-80 scale? What's his
offensive ceiling? Thanks for the chats!
Wouldn't worry too much about a high school
kid from Florida in his first year in the Midwest League. Still see him
as one of the best bats from last year's draft with potential for a
high OBP and 20-25 homers a year
Casey (Hawaii): Who would you rather have: Hosmer or Chiz? Hosmer sounds like the better prospect but Chiz is a 3B.
Hosmer. He can't play third base, but other
than speed, every tool (even arm) grades out better for Hosmer, and his
pitch recognition and plate discipline are more advanced too. He's
going to be a monster.
Always fun talking baseball with you guys.
We'll be back here again next week, but there'll be another Callis Chat
on Wednesday and we'll get rolling with our prospect updates next week.
Have a safe weekend everyone!