Ben Badler: Hi everyone. It's a good day to be living in Raleigh, NC for some baseball. Gerardo Parra's Mobile team is in town, Wade Davis pitches in Durham tomorrow night, but it looks like Saturday night's reserved for a trip to Greensboro to watch Madison Bumgarner pitch against Mike Stanton, Matt Dominguez and the rest of the Greensboro lineup. I can't believe the season's almost over.

Ben Badler: I've seen McDonald pitch twice this season. Going from that and talking to scouts, it's his fastball command right now that needs to be refined before he can be a successful big league pitcher. He strikes out so many batters because his curveball and his changeup are both plus pitches. He maintains his arm speed on his changeup and, when it's on, it's an outstanding pitch. His curveball isn't a hammer...more of a slower pitch with big break...but it's a good pitch when he's throwing well. The problem is that his fastball is average at best, usually sitting 88-91without much movement. He's a fly ball guy, so if he doesn't locate his fastball well and he leaves it up in the zone, the ball is going to go a long, long way. He doesn't walk a lot of guys, so it's not a matter of throwing more strikes, just of hitting his spots within the strike zone. I think he'll get that down, maybe have a bit of an adjustment period at first, but I'm very high on him. There's a chance he gets a callup this year, but I think he should be given a chance to crack the 2009 rotation in LA.

J.J. Cooper: Impossible to say exactly when, as the Rays aren't just spreading the news on that, but it seems safe to say that with the Rays in the pennant race, there's no reason a lefty with three pitches including a 95-mph fastball wouldn't be useful down the stretch. Ken Rosenthal made a good point recently about how throwing Price into the Rays bullpen would actually cut his innings this year, but that still seems to make the most sense. It's not like the Rays have a starter who is clearly deserving of replacement, and it's easier for a rookie pitcher to break into the big leagues in the bullpen.

Ben Badler: With Andy LaRoche gone now, I'd say yes.

Nathan Rode: Given that Sean Doolittle is in Double-A, while Mills is still in High A and Freeman is in Low A and young...I'll take Doolittle. He's taken the biggest steps this season and is the closest to breaking into the big leagues. I also think he could have the biggest impact, but you could also argue Freddie Freeman, but because he's a few years younger, it's a little unfair to make that kind of prediction for him.

Ben Badler: You're welcome. At best, second or third base, because he won't stick at shortstop in pro ball.

Ben Badler: It's been a very good year for Marlins hitting prospects, while on the mound Chris Volstad looked very good all year in Carolina and now is showing it in the majors. I think the Marlins have one of the top farm systems in baseball right now thanks to guys like Stanton and Morrison. Scouts love Stanton, who is going to still be 18 when the season ends but already has great size and tremendous usable power. He's very athletic too... the k zone discipline is a little concerning, but I worry about that less with prospects with great power, especially young, athletic ones like Stanton.

Ben Badler: Morrison: Love him too. Power and feel for hitting. West: Very far away, not sure he'll ever recover from his injury. Sanchez: A little old for the Southern League, always wary of guys who will make their big league debuts at 25, but he's a great fastball hitter. But he's going to have to hit a ton, so I wouldn't go projecting stardom for him, maybe a solid regular if everything clicks for him.

Ben Badler: The latter. Lou Montanez does not affect Matt Wieters. Matt Wieters is fantastic.

Ben Badler: Taylor's a legit prospect, but he has plenty to prove, especially with pitch recognition.

Ben Badler: No, not at all, he's still one of the best shortstops in the game, but he was hit by a pitch and will be out at least a week, possibly for the rest of the season. He's not ready for the majors right now (well, before the injury), but he's just 22 and doing some things well in Triple-A: scouts like his defense and he's showing some power. I think he'll start walking a little bit more with age and experience, as players in the aggregate tend to do, and his average will come up. So a moderate OBP shortstop with good power and defense is a valuable commodity.

Ben Badler: Ceiling is a No. 1 starter, but I wouldn't expect him to be a No. 1 starter. I do think he's one of the best pitching prospects in baseball... there is NO justification for the Mariners including him AND Adam Jones AND other serviceable players in that deal in the off-season. Judging from the questions we get every week, it seems like there's a lot of Orioles fans who want to see Tillman called up ASAP, but I don't think that will (or at least should) happen. His command still needs some work, so another year and maybe part of 2010 in the farm working on command would do him some good.

Matt Eddy: The real question is, which nine guys slot in behind Matt Wieters? No. 4 overall pick Brian Matusz will almost certainly slot in at No. 2 once he signs. From there, let's take a look at last year's Nos. 2-9.

Matt Eddy: Troy Patton (shoulder injury) and Radhames Liz (too much big league time) are out. Chorye Spoone also has struggled with shoulder trouble, while Pedro Beato has just struggled, putting them on the the fence. And while Bill Rowell has really struggled at the plate (.235/.306/.356 at High A), his draft pedigree (ninth overall pick, 2006) may save him — as it may Brandon Snyder, the club's first pick in 2005.

Matt Eddy: Look for Chris Tillman, Jake Arrieta and Nolan Reimold to fare well in the rankings, and feel free to throw Double-A arms Brad Bergesen and David Herndandez, and High A arm Brandon Erbe, into the mix. At Triple-A, Mike Costanzo has hit for power in the toughest hitting environment at the level (Norfolk) and power reliever Kam Mickolio has turned heads with his size (6-foot-9), mid-90s heat and occasionally wicked slider. And this analysis hasn't even accounted for premium '08 picks Xavier Avery and L.J. Hoes, so suffice it to say, the Orioles will do well in our organizational talent rankings.

Ben Badler: Yes, way too much. I know the Dodgers have Russell Martin at catcher in LA, so Santana "seems" expendable, but you don't know what will happen in a few years, and it's hard enough to find a good catching prospect like Santana. And given that the Dodgers replacement option at third base was Andy LaRoche, who should have been their third baseman all along once he was healthy (even when DeWitt was playing well), it was a move that I didn't understand or think was necessary.

Nathan Rode: You make a good point, but we also discuss consistency in the meeting. While you can easily argue either way for Bumgarner or Erbe based on one week's worth of numbers, we sided with the former because he's been doing it all year. Erbe has had a very up and down season. He's also repeating the level. But that's not to say he's a bust. He's still only 20 years old in High A and has a lot of potential. Erbe's stuff may have been unhittable for that game, but he's been hittable at other points during the season.

Nathan Rode: Rick Porcello is a potential four-pitch pitcher with more polish and is holding is own in a higher level. Bumgarner does have exceptional command, but is working to refine secondary pitches. In the low level minors its easy to get by with a power fastball especially if its coming from the left side. Hitters at those levels just don't see it as much.

Ben Badler: Outside of the Marlins organization, I've probably seen Coghlan more than anyone else this season, and I do think he can become a good big league second baseman. His pitch recognition and selectivity at the plate is outstanding. He rarely gets fooled, rarely swings at pitches out of the strike zone and shows the ability to hit all types of pitches. It's not plus power, but he can drive the ball, which means those walks will likely hold up at the next level. He has stolen a bunch of bases, but he's about an average runner who gets most of those swipes with good baserunning instincts. Defensively though he's average at best at second base (although he's almost surely better than Dan Uggla) and he's worse at third base, though that's probably in large part because he only plays there sparingly. But his offensive game should carry him.

Matt Eddy: Both Padres were strongly considered. LeBlanc whiffed 11 this week in throwing eight shutout innings, and he's been very good over his past three starts, but on the whole, LeBlanc hasn't been consistently good for Portland. We like to reward the prospects who play at a high level for a sustained time.

Matt Eddy: Kulbacki, one of the Cal League's top performers this season, was recognized in the team photo. His lack of playing time is the only thing that kept him out of the 13.

Ben Badler: He's worth the hype, but there's always doubt. Remember when he missed the first month of the season? But I'll take him over any other pitcher in the minors right now.

Ben Badler: Anderson

Ben Badler: This week there were more good candidates for Hot Sheet than there were spaces available. How does Gaby Sanchez hit two home runs in back-to-back games and not make it? It was just a good week, but there's plenty to like about Alderson, who I still like better than Bumgarner right now, though I'll finally get to see Bumgarner in person tomorrow. His command is so advanced right now, which is remarkable because guys with a plus fastball and the kind of action he has on his curveball usually don't have premium command. Especially coming out of high school, and especially doing it in the Cal League in 19 in his first pro season. He shouldn't take too long to reach the majors, he just needs to improve his changeup and his pitchability (not that it's lacking, just that all 19-year-olds need to improve their craft).

Ben Badler: Just because, and I don't mean to sound like a wise-crack, I think there's a less than 50 percent chance of him being a No. 1 starter. There are just so many things that can go wrong with any prospect (or any player), especially pitchers, that I wouldn't even tab David Price or Clayton Kershaw's expected value as No. 1 starter. When you weight the probabilities of all of his expected outcomes, it's nearly impossible to expect a guy to be a No. 1 starter. So it's not any slight at Tillman or any other pitcher, just managing reasonable expectations for players.

J.J. Cooper: Thanks for the kind words about the podcast, we enjoy doing them. As far as Snider, these days there's little enough difference between the caliber of competition in Double-A and Triple-A that I don't think there's much worry about him being in over his head. The reality is that he probably would face as many quality fastballs in the EL as he will in the IL, but now he'll get a graduate level course in facing pitchers with savvy. I don't think it's a big risk to get him a little acclimated to Triple-A before sending him there next year.

Ben Badler: If it all works out, I think he could be a solid regular, tough to project stardom for. I'd put Nick Weglarz ahead of Hodges, and I might put Adam Miller up there too. I know Miller's been a frustrating prospect and there's certainly some prospect fatigue setting in with him after being No. 1 in the Indians system for so long, but I still think that there's plenty of ceiling left there.

Ben Badler: It's certainly an important factor, although performance is always used as an estimate of true talent at any level, and in the low minors the scouting reports take on a tremendous level of importance. Obviously Moustakas is playing in a difficult offensive environment, but other factors, like Heyward playing his first full season in his home state of Georgia while Moustakas goes from California to the midwest, are also factors. But in the end it's all about estimating the present level of talent and the expected future level of talent for a player, so it's best to take a holistic approach of evaluation that combines the reports we get from scouts and field staff with what what we can glean from players' performance records.

Ben Badler: Well Elbert is coming off labrum surgery, so I'm almost never going to put my money in that pot, even though I think he was a fantastic prospect before his injury. They could try him as a starter, but it's looking like the bullpen is more in his future right now.

Ben Badler: Because it would be awesome to see a player hit .400 in the Midwest League. He also did get a late start to the season, and teams do sometimes like to leave a guy in his first full season in the same place all year.

Matt Eddy: Niemann's on the 40-man and has pitched well at Triple-A, so he'll warrant a September callup. Davis is a tougher case, as he's made just four Triple-A starts, putting him on pace for just seven or eight. The Rays being conservative with their pitchers, and with the big league staff in good shape, a callup may not be in Davis' future this season.

Ben Badler: McCutchen is still No. 1 for me, but you could Vote For Pedro and I probably wouldn't put up much of a fight. LaRoche is No. 3 (don't know how many big league at-bats he has right now to still be prospect eligible), then probably Jose Tabata looks like he's right behind them. There's some depth after that... middle infielders Brian Friday and Shelby Ford have their virtues, Neil Walker is struggling but still hitting for power, and they got some bulk from the Yankees as well. I'm cautious with Scheppers, but he probably fits in there as well. They're getting better, and they definitely improved their club at the trading deadline, but the farm system still has a few years to go to keep bringing along quality homegrown talent.

Matt Eddy: In making his Eastern League best tools calls, John Manuel was hearing the same things that you've described: Murphy is a grinder who will wait for his pitch, and he knows what do to when he gets it. In Wednesday's game, for example, he took a 1-0 pitch to allow Jose Reyes to steal second base, and then hit the next pitch to the right side of the infield. The ball found a hole and Reyes scored, but even if it didn't, a 4-3 would have moved Reyes to third.

Matt Eddy: Defensively, Murphy probably fits best in left field, where he's currently stationed. A fringe-average defender at third, he'll have a lot of work in front of him to become even playable at second base.

Matt Eddy: And after the Mets traded for Santana, John revised his Mets Top 10 to include Murphy and 17-year-old sensation Wilmer Flores. In short, don't be shy about feeling bullish about Dan Murphy.

Ben Badler: Well he also has a good handle of the strike zone, plays very good defense, he puts the ball in play and he should have moderate power. And he's just 21 in Triple-A and hitting .279-372-.399. So if you think he can hit around .260-.330-.420 in the big leagues, which I think is a reasonable expectation, then he's already an average NL center fielder. And if he's an above-average defender, then he's also an above-average player. My estimation is that he turns into a high OBP player, so that's plenty of value right there.

Ben Badler: Lambo

Ben Badler: The size is similar, and I have talked to scouts who did think Montero will stick behind the plate. But Wieters, in addition to being a fantastic hitter (and the No. 1 prospect in baseball, in my opinion), also has superlative defensive skills. Wieters has a cannon arm and controls the running game as well as any catcher in the minors. Montero... not so much this year. Some will have concerns about Wieters' size behind the plate, but his defensive skills are so good that it doesn't matter that much. And he's a Boras Corp. client, so it's highly probable that he'll test free agency rather than cut a long-term deal... he should be fine behind the plate for at least the six years that he's under the Orioles control

Ben Badler: Well first that's not quite fair to Jose Reyes, who if he keeps up his current pace will have slugged around .490 in two different seasons by age 25. Andrus has been successful on 76 percent of his attempts, which is pretty good for a 19-year-old in Double-A. He already has the speed, so it's just a matter of refining his baserunning. He certainly does have the ability to add runs with his baserunning; the way to do that is to get on base in the first place, which I think he will do in the big leagues.

Ben Badler: Andrus

Ben Badler: No way.

Ben Badler: He's in China right now playing for Team Canada in the Olympics this month, so he's literally a few thousand miles away from the big leagues. I like Saunders but I think there's going to be some growing pains upon his initial introduction to the majors. The tools are there... runs well, good bat speed, good size, etc. ... the approach isn't perfect, but with his other skills and his youth, I think he'll be fine.

Ben Badler: Gotta head to the field. Thanks as always for choosing to spend your Friday afternoons with Baseball America. Enjoy the weekend!