Sometimes Last Isn't So Bad
No. 30 prospects on previous Prospect Handbook lists have turned out OK
CHICAGO—We're nothing, if not obsessive, at Baseball America, especially when it comes to ranking prospects.
Going 30 phenoms deep for every team in the annual Prospect Handbook theoretically would give us more than ample opportunity to discuss everyone worth discussing. You would still be surprised at how much we can agonize over who gets that final spot.
A player who sneaks in at No. 30 usually fits into at least one of three categories: He's very toolsy but not very skilled; he's a one-time top prospect on his way down but he still engenders a glimmer of hope; or he has a story we're dying to tell. Sometimes he qualifies on all three counts, as Matt Bush did with the Padres in the 2008 Handbook.
Three players have checked in at No. 30 on two different occasions. Stephen Andrade, whose stats were prettier than his stuff, did so for the Angels in 2004 and the Padres in 2006.
Jeff Allison, who had the best arm in the 2003 draft but also a drug addiction, was No. 30 on our 2005 and 2006 Marlins lists. Anthony Varvaro, who had Tommy John surgery just before the Mariners drafted him in 2005, was their No. 30 prospect in 2006 and 2008.
None of them has reached the majors. Neither did the most spectacular No. 30 story ever, Toe Nash (Devil Rays, 2001). Peter Gammons compared him to Babe Ruth shortly after Tampa Bay signed Nash out of Louisiana's Sugar Cane League, but his legal problems proved more formidable than his two-way talent.
However, a surprising number of No. 30 prospects have done quite well for themselves.
Sanchez, Hamilton Stick Out
The best thus far is Freddy Sanchez (Red Sox, 2001), the National League batting champion in 2006 and an all-star the past two seasons for the Pirates. Sanchez was an obscure 11th-round pick in 2000 who won team MVP honors at short-season Lowell in his debut, and he almost didn't crack the first edition of the Handbook.
We guess at each team's future lineup as part of our prospect coverage, and when Boston traded away Donnie Sadler that offseason, it had no obvious second-base candidate. When I settled on Sanchez by default, former BA assistant editor James Bailey insisted that any projected starter had to make the Top 30.
The most heartwarming No. 30 success story is Josh Hamilton (Reds, 2007). The No. 1 overall pick in the 1999 draft, he had been derailed by drug problems and injuries before Cincinnati took a low-risk flier on him in the 2006 Rule 5 draft. Hamilton overcame his personal demons to hit .292 with 19 homers last season before the Reds traded him to the Rangers.
Mike Jacobs (Mets, 2005) was coming off a season ruined by a torn labrum and a cyst in his shoulder, and while the injuries ended his chances of catching, he has recovered to smack 48 big league homers for the Mets and Marlins during the past three seasons. Buried in New York, Marcus Thames (Yankees, 2001) has hit 61 homers in four years as a platoon player with the Tigers.
As for pitchers, Mike Gonzalez (Pirates, 2002) was scuffling as a starter and coming off arthroscopic shoulder surgery, but he became a big league closer before having Tommy John surgery with the Braves last June. Brian Wilson (Giants, 2004), whose No. 30 ranking was directly tied to having the same surgery shortly before San Francisco drafted him, will open spring training as the club's closer. Casey Janssen (Blue Jays, 2005), a college senior sign who had just become a full-time pitcher, finished fourth in the American League with 24 holds last year.
Prospects On The Rise
More former No. 30 prospects should continue to make good coming years. Three of the best talents currently in the minors once sat at the bottom of our organization lists.
Center fielder Jordan Schafer (Braves, 2006) hit just .203 in his pro debut and stood out more for his defense. Now he's an all-around player coming off a .312 season in Class A and looks no more than a year away from becoming Andruw Jones' long-term replacement in Atlanta.
Righthander Daniel Cortes (Royals, 2007) was considered the second-best prospect (behind Tyler Lumsden) in the Mike MacDougal trade with the White Sox. A year later, his fastball has jumped to 93-96 mph and he has shown improvement with his curveball, control and command.
Center fielder Desmond Jennings (Devil Rays, 2007) had starred as much as a junior college wide receiver as he had in baseball. Last season, he batted .315 with 45 steals in 99 games while beating out Schafer as the top prospect and best defensive outfielder in the South Atlantic League.
Others to watch include: outfielder Delwyn Young (Dodgers, 2003), one of the better pure hitters in the minors; righthander Felipe Paulino (Astros, 2004), who can reach 100 mph, is Houston's best pitching prospect; and John Jaso (Devil Rays, 2005), a sleeper who could be Tampa Bay's catcher of the future.
So when you're reading the Prospect Handbook, realize that as much care (and perhaps more) went into choosing the No. 30 prospects as the No. 1s. And you'll see a few of those No. 30s in the majors down the road.
No. 30 prospects on previous Prospect Handbook lists have turned out OK
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PrintCHICAGO—We're nothing, if not obsessive, at Baseball America, especially when it comes to ranking prospects.
Going 30 phenoms deep for every team in the annual Prospect Handbook theoretically would give us more than ample opportunity to discuss everyone worth discussing. You would still be surprised at how much we can agonize over who gets that final spot.
A player who sneaks in at No. 30 usually fits into at least one of three categories: He's very toolsy but not very skilled; he's a one-time top prospect on his way down but he still engenders a glimmer of hope; or he has a story we're dying to tell. Sometimes he qualifies on all three counts, as Matt Bush did with the Padres in the 2008 Handbook.Three players have checked in at No. 30 on two different occasions. Stephen Andrade, whose stats were prettier than his stuff, did so for the Angels in 2004 and the Padres in 2006.
Jeff Allison, who had the best arm in the 2003 draft but also a drug addiction, was No. 30 on our 2005 and 2006 Marlins lists. Anthony Varvaro, who had Tommy John surgery just before the Mariners drafted him in 2005, was their No. 30 prospect in 2006 and 2008.
None of them has reached the majors. Neither did the most spectacular No. 30 story ever, Toe Nash (Devil Rays, 2001). Peter Gammons compared him to Babe Ruth shortly after Tampa Bay signed Nash out of Louisiana's Sugar Cane League, but his legal problems proved more formidable than his two-way talent.
However, a surprising number of No. 30 prospects have done quite well for themselves.
Sanchez, Hamilton Stick Out
The best thus far is Freddy Sanchez (Red Sox, 2001), the National League batting champion in 2006 and an all-star the past two seasons for the Pirates. Sanchez was an obscure 11th-round pick in 2000 who won team MVP honors at short-season Lowell in his debut, and he almost didn't crack the first edition of the Handbook.
We guess at each team's future lineup as part of our prospect coverage, and when Boston traded away Donnie Sadler that offseason, it had no obvious second-base candidate. When I settled on Sanchez by default, former BA assistant editor James Bailey insisted that any projected starter had to make the Top 30.
The most heartwarming No. 30 success story is Josh Hamilton (Reds, 2007). The No. 1 overall pick in the 1999 draft, he had been derailed by drug problems and injuries before Cincinnati took a low-risk flier on him in the 2006 Rule 5 draft. Hamilton overcame his personal demons to hit .292 with 19 homers last season before the Reds traded him to the Rangers.
Mike Jacobs (Mets, 2005) was coming off a season ruined by a torn labrum and a cyst in his shoulder, and while the injuries ended his chances of catching, he has recovered to smack 48 big league homers for the Mets and Marlins during the past three seasons. Buried in New York, Marcus Thames (Yankees, 2001) has hit 61 homers in four years as a platoon player with the Tigers.
As for pitchers, Mike Gonzalez (Pirates, 2002) was scuffling as a starter and coming off arthroscopic shoulder surgery, but he became a big league closer before having Tommy John surgery with the Braves last June. Brian Wilson (Giants, 2004), whose No. 30 ranking was directly tied to having the same surgery shortly before San Francisco drafted him, will open spring training as the club's closer. Casey Janssen (Blue Jays, 2005), a college senior sign who had just become a full-time pitcher, finished fourth in the American League with 24 holds last year.
Prospects On The Rise
More former No. 30 prospects should continue to make good coming years. Three of the best talents currently in the minors once sat at the bottom of our organization lists.
Center fielder Jordan Schafer (Braves, 2006) hit just .203 in his pro debut and stood out more for his defense. Now he's an all-around player coming off a .312 season in Class A and looks no more than a year away from becoming Andruw Jones' long-term replacement in Atlanta.
Righthander Daniel Cortes (Royals, 2007) was considered the second-best prospect (behind Tyler Lumsden) in the Mike MacDougal trade with the White Sox. A year later, his fastball has jumped to 93-96 mph and he has shown improvement with his curveball, control and command.
Center fielder Desmond Jennings (Devil Rays, 2007) had starred as much as a junior college wide receiver as he had in baseball. Last season, he batted .315 with 45 steals in 99 games while beating out Schafer as the top prospect and best defensive outfielder in the South Atlantic League.
Others to watch include: outfielder Delwyn Young (Dodgers, 2003), one of the better pure hitters in the minors; righthander Felipe Paulino (Astros, 2004), who can reach 100 mph, is Houston's best pitching prospect; and John Jaso (Devil Rays, 2005), a sleeper who could be Tampa Bay's catcher of the future.
So when you're reading the Prospect Handbook, realize that as much care (and perhaps more) went into choosing the No. 30 prospects as the No. 1s. And you'll see a few of those No. 30s in the majors down the road.
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