Jim Callis Chat: April 20
Devon (Baltimore): 2 questions if i could Jim.
Who's first to the show- Hosmer or Moustakas- and which one makes the greatest impact short and long term?
Which minor league pitcher has the best chance of making a midseason (or earlier) arrival and have early success in the bigs?
Love your work.
The Royals question is basically a coin
flip. Hosmer might be a little more pure a hitter than Moustakas, who
might have a little more raw power. Moustakas offers more positional
value but isn't a lock to stay at third base for the long term. Hosmer
is off to a much better start, but he doesn't have to be protected on
the 40-man roster this offseason and Moose does. So I think we'll see
Moose first. Hosmer might have a slightly easier transition to the
majors. As for the pitchers, I could see Julio Teheran accelerating his
timetable and really helping the Braves. They don't have any rotation
holes, so you might have to wait until the second half for him.
Dan (RI): Paul Goldschmidt is having a monster start. Where does he rank now among 1st base prospects?
He's in the discussion, probably in the Top
10, but he's not an elite guy, like a Hosmer. Goldschmidt's cause would
be helped if he batted lefthanded, but he does have good power.
Josh (Boston): I've heard conflicting reports
on Nick Delmonico's ability to stick behind the plate? In your opinion,
can he do it? And if he can't, what kind of player is he going forward?
Those conflicting reports come because he
hasn't done it a lot and is still a work in progress. Put it this way:
He has a chance, which would make him extremely valuable, and if he
can't, he still offers enough offense and athleticism to become a
productive major leaguer.
Eric (Polson, MT): Thanks for chatting Jim! Whats your take on Mariners pitching prospect Erasmo Ramirez and potential timetable for MLB?
He has good command of average stuff. I see
his ceiling as a No. 4 starter, but he could move quickly because he
throws strikes so easily.
Frank (Dallas, TX): Assuming Dr. Andrews doesn't find anything seriously wrong with Purke, what happens to his stock?
It's still up in the air. Some scouts
already didn't love his delivery or his freshman-year workload, and even
if it's just, say, tendinitis, that won't ease those concerns. Where he
goes in the draft depends on how well he bounces back between now and
the end of the season, and what his price tag is.
Grant (NYC): Thoughts on the early struggles of Montgomery's starting rotation?
Too early to read too much into it. Matt
Moore started very slowly last year before leading the minors in
strikeouts for the second straight season. He and Chris Archer are on
the short list of the game's best pitching prospects. Nick Barnese, Joe
Cruz and Shane Dyer have good arms too and should improve. On the bright
side, the staff as a whole is averaging a strikeout per innings, so the
stuff is still there.
Richard (Simpsonville, KY): How has Sonny Gray looked so far this year? If he were to stay in school until next year, would he be in the mix for 1/1?
He's looked like the same ol' Sonny Gray
scouts love. Devastating fastball/curveball combination, tenacious
competitor, command could use a little improvement. He'd be in the mix
for 1/1 next year, especially with that combination of stuff and zero
leverage as a college senior, but I wouldn't count on him returning to
Ed (San Diego): How good of a choice would Bauer be at #10 for the Padres?
Bauer would be a good choice at No. 10 for
the Padres, but I don't think he's going to get there. He might go
closer to No. 3 than No. 10. Some teams may worry about his unorthodox
mechanics and approach, but there are plenty who love him. He has very
good stuff, he commands it, he competes and he's going to get to the
DrewBoke (IL): What's the scouting report on Austin Kirk? He looks like he has great stuff with poor inconsistency.
I haven't talked to anyone about him this
year, but in the past he's had a high-80s fastball with a promising
curveball. If he can command that curve, he'll be tough in the Midwest
Randy (Boston): I was wondering if I could get
your thoughts on Matt Lipka and if he is likely to stick at SS. Could
you compare him to other SS prospects in the minors? Thanks Jim.
It's funny, I thought Lipka was
underappreciated leading up to the 2010 draft and then he went in the
sandwich round. He definitely has the athleticism for shortstop, and his
arm is strong enough. Watching him as an amateur, scouts questioned his
hands more than anything, but he has been fine so far. Based on what
we've seen to this point, he has a solid chance. He always can fall back
on being a center fielder.
Dave (Pueblo): If the draft were tomorrow, KC's pick at #5 - Bundy, Starling or one of the college pitchers?
I think Starling makes a ton of sense for
them there. He has the most upside in this draft and would be a
tremendous addition to that Moustakas/Hosmer/Myers offensive nucleus.
Matt Clark (Philadelphia, PA): Where do you think Miguel Sano will end up (position) and when will we see him in the majors?
Third base or an outfield corner, depending
on how big he gets. He won't be 18 until May, so we probably won't see
him in Minnesota until 2014 at the earliest.
Joel (Joplin, MO): Jim Thanks for the chat.
Every year you guys publish a list of the top 10 rounds and the
agents/advisors that represent them. I haven't been able to find that
from last year. Did you guys do it last year?
With the NCAA on its witch hunt regarding
its ridiculous no-agent rule, we declined to publish that list last
year. It's bad enough that the NCAA is punishing kids like Logan Ehlers
and Albert Minnis for nonsensical reasons. We're certainly not going to
help the NCAA out.
Jon (DC): I'm sure you'll get a few questions
about him, but Cameron Selik? Ever see him in college or at Vermont?
Any updated reports on him? Thanks.
He touched the mid-90s while at Kansas but
was inconsistent—which obviously hasn't been the case during his great
start so far this year.
Tom (So Cal): Tustin, CA HS senior Travis
Harrison is having very strong spring on top of historically impressive
showcase events. Could you comment on his current draft stock? Do you
see him going in the first round? (Did not see him on the BA top 50
list) As always, thank you for the chat. Keep up the good work!
He didn't make our midseason Top 50 but he
was in the discussion. He has some of the best raw power in this draft,
and a team that thinks he can handle third base may be tempted to take
him in the second half of the first round.
Camden (Cali): What caused B.J Upton to move from SS to CF? He obviously has the agility and speed, was it the arm? Thanks Jim.
He was just too erratic. He had enough arm
strength, but he wasn't consistent making throws and lacked the feel
needed to play the position. The raw physical tools were definitely
Tyler (New Hampshire): Offensively, what's the
difference between Miguel Sano and what Angel Villalona was? The
scouting reports are nearly identical in that regard. Does Sano project
to be a huge strikeout guy?
Sano isn't Mike Trout, but he's a
significantly better athlete than Villalona was. Villalona was
essentially a DH in a NL organization, while Sano has a chance to play
3B or at least the outfield. Sano did fan 60 times in 61 games last
year, but he also was 17 years old.
KS (Chicago): When Matt Sczcur signed his
contract with the Cubs in January you said if he were available in this
draft he would be a first round pick. Now that we have seen the amount
of depth in this draft do you still hold this opinion? Thanks
This draft is loaded. But my point was is
Szczur played as well this spring as he did last summer in his pro debut
(translate his 347/414/465 line to college and what do you get?), he
would have been a first-round pick with his combination of outstanding
athleticism and performance. That kind of season and those kind of tools
would put him in Mikie Mahtook territory somewhere in the middle of the
Greg (Boston): Hey Jim...thanks for chatting. I
guess it all depends on what Dr. James "Oh No" Andrews says, but if
there's no structural damage to his shoulder, does Purke become 2011's
He could. I could see Purke proving himself in summer ball and earning a big payday in August if he's healthy.
Tyler (Harrodsburg, KY): Jim, thanks for the
chat, as I look forward to reading this every week. As deep as the draft
is this year, do you think it's possible that the top 2 picks will not
be named Rendon nor Cole? I see that Springer has dropped on the latest
top college prospect list, but I would have to think if a guy like him
were to finish the season on a high note, Rendon and Cole could be
Anything's possible with the draft, because
signability can really confuse matters and there's so much talent
available in 2011. That said, I still will be surprised if the top two
picks aren't Rendon/Cole or Cole/Rendon.
RJ (Ft. Lauderdale): What happens if Hak Ju Lee needs a promotion (mid to late in the year) with Tim Beckham as the SS in AA.
The Rays would either promote Beckham if he
merits it, or move him to another position. I can't see Beckham as a
big league shortstop, so it's not like that would harm his development.
Nick (SF): What's your feeling about how the
Giants handled Belt? A bit of a yo-yo? And perhaps most importantly,
what is the track record for top prospects who come up in April, don't
light it up and then go back down for more seasoning?
Nothing wrong with it. He knew the deal,
that injuries created an opportunity and he might be headed back to
Triple-A. You could look at his experience as a positive as he got
acclimated somewhat to the majors without having to produce in the heat
of a pennant race. Don't know what the track record would show, but I
can't imagine there are any noticeable effects.
Jason (Los Angeles): Can you rank these guys in terms of their careers as a pro?
T.Jungmann, S.Gray, T.Bauer, J.Bradley
I can, though my answer might change if you
ask me again in five minutes. Separating the college pitchers after
Cole in this draft is tough. I'll go Bradley, Bauer, Gray, Jungmann.
Can't believe I just put Jungmann fourth.
chuck (baton rouge): Any word on bryce brentz's start? Has he perhaps fixed some of his swing flaws, or just sss? Thanks.
Small sample size, yes, but he improved at
the end of his pro debut and continued to make positive adjustments. The
most encouraging sign is that his strikeout rate is way down, though
again, it's just 12 games.
Kristian (Burlington, Canada): Any scenario
where you see Jacob Turner and/or Mike Trout up in the majors this year?
Both are young but seem to be too talented to keep down long.
I wouldn't count on it but they're both so
talented that it's possible. I'm with you—they're both so gifted that I
could see them tearing up Double-A and forcing the issue.
Johnny (Irvine, CA): Any chance that Lindor drop to #21 for Jays?
No chance unless he has a crazy price tag
that scares off teams. He's the only sure-thing shortstop in this draft,
and I can't see him getting past the first 10 picks.
Ryan (Owasso): Jordan Lyles struggled at AAA to
end the year last year & is off to a rough start this year. Did
the Astros bump him from AA a little prematurely?
It looks like it. I don't think they're
doing irreversible harm, but I never understood the rush. He was 19 when
they promoted him to Triple-A last year, and the Astros aren't going to
contend any time in the near future. Sending him to Double-A in 2010
was aggressive enough.
Chris (KC): I've been warming up more to the
possibility that the Royals might take Starling, as you discussed
earlier. And he's already said that he would be thrilled if it was the
hometown team. But he scares the heck out of me because he seems like a
raw guy with tons of tools that aren't skills - like his best position
is "athlete." Am I wrong with that assessment?
That's a little harsh. By nature, most high
school guys aren't finished products and haven't been tested against
much quality competition. But Starling wasn't exposed on the showcase
circuit like, say, an Anthony Hewitt was. Is Starling going to need some
polish? Yes, but not an inordinate amount.
Jarreus (Capehart): For your money who do you take...Mike Montgomery or Shelby Miller...How does their stuff compare? Thanks
Miller. I think his pure stuff is better, though Montgomery does have the advantage of being lefthanded.
John (California): Grant Green has come out
struggling with the bat, but it seems like he has worker on the things
people have pointed out from last year. With only 1 error and a much
better eye, what is your take on Green? Shortstop or no?
He's still an offensive-minded second baseman in my eyes. He just doesn't have the defensive tools of a big league shortstop.
I'm getting back to the draft phones now,
and I'll see you again next Wednesday. Until then, feel free to hit me
with questions: those needing long responses at
firstname.lastname@example.org and shorter ones via Twitter (@jimcallisBA).