John Manuel: Thanks to everyone for coming in to the chat, I've had plenty of e-mail on this post already so I thought a chat was the way to go. Let's dive in with Weezer as my backkup band for the day . . .

John Manuel: Swarzak is another example of a deep Twins farm system, and they have plenty of time to develop him. He's just 20, in high Class A, and has several college RHPs performing well ahead of him, highlighted by Matt Garza and Kevin Slowey, who began the year in the rotation at Ft. Myers with him. I'd rank him behind those guys, and I guess I don't see him as having made himself an elite guy yet, but he's really not far from that. He had some John Smoltz comparisons in high school, I think that is probably a little too optimistic. In two years, he probably will still be in the minors, because the Twins could have a rotation with Santana and Liriano plus some mix of Baker, Garza, Slowey and maybe Boof Bonser, plus there are others such as Kyle Waldrop and Eduardo Morlan with upside in the system (Yeah, I still like Waldrop).

John Manuel: Mike, sorry, but Quinn Stewart doesn't belong in the discussion. I didn't count 2006 draftees anyway, even though Stewart signed as a fifth-year senior and didn't even make it to the draft. As for the All-America teams, we had guys who had better years than him, in fact, we had 9-12 (counting OFs and DHs). Sorry.

John Manuel: I think he's really come on as a prospect this year, not so much his performance (he performed last year), but as Chris Kline has detailed, Gallagher's stuff is better this year. His curveball doesn't stand out so significantly from his other pitches anymore, it's better and it's not his only good pitch. He throws harder and has better control. He is in an organization that has had a horrible year, and he's been a bright light. Putting a timetable on him . . . I'd guess he'll get to the majors in his 40-man roster protection year, and that would be next year if he performs well.

John Manuel: I have my list right here, and I would have put him probably in the 13-17 range. Hard to say, I like Miller a lot as a prospect, but I also think Scott Elbert is the best lefty in the minors right now, and Elbert's pitched a full pro season, he's physical, he's much stronger than Miller (who obviously is taller) . . . tough call. I'd lean toward Miller there but I like Elbert a lot.

John Manuel: I think the quote I had says it all: Character will damage a player in all aspects . . . because eventually it will keep him off the field." That was a powerful comment for me. It would be nice if he hit for more power in Triple-A but I have never talked to a scout who doubted his power, and he's clearly an advanced hitter, even without the kind of control of the strike zone one would prefer to see. He's also an asset defensively in RF. But do I think you can build a championship team around him? I have my doubts with a player who has that kind of baggage at his age. My dealings with him have been pleasant but I hope he realizes his mistakes and can mature and deal with them.

John Manuel: Elbert, because he's a power-pitching, athletic LHP with stuff and aptitude who has shown improvement. We had the Dodgers' system No. 1 in our Prospect Handbook, though it droipped to No. 2 when the Diamondbacks signed Upton and traded for Chris Young. I don't see the D-backs giving up that No. 1 spot really easily, and the Dodgers graduated a lot of talent to the majors, so I don't see the Dodgers being No. 1 again this year.

John Manuel: Man, lots of good questions . . . Garza is better than I thought he would be. Fresno State had a lot of talent on its pitching staff in about 2004 but a lot of those guys flamed out or transferred (Jamie Arneson, Kyle Harper, I'm forgetting others) . . . Garza and Slowey should both be fine RH compliments to Santana and Liriano. If the Twins can find some RH bats to go with Mauer and Morneau . . . damn. That should be sweet in that new ballpark. The most impressive thing on Garza is he's handling LH hitters so well, giving up only one HR to them all year. If he keeps that up, he'll be the No. 3 starter behind Santana and Liriano. Very nice situation for the Twins.

John Manuel: The Royals could have moved him up two months ago; he and Alex Gordon would be among the team's best hitters right now. I just think the club will wait until 2007 on both of them because this is a lost year, and why start Butler's clock early? I am quite taken with his hitting ability, and his improvement on defense has been significant. He's not going to be a gold glover but he clearly realizes he needs to improve and has worked at it, and he's always had a plus arm. It's just his lack of speed and mobility (relative to other corner OFs) that will stand in his way.

John Manuel: Good question Ben; for me, some of it is physical. Upton has more present strength, and Maybin looks like a big leaguer right now physically. I've used this line before but minus the 6-foot-8 part, Maybin looks like LeBron James to me, just so broad-shouldered and physical at such a young age. I just think Bruce isn't as physical as those guys right now (even though he's no shrimp himself), and that's why he's considered a bit behind them. But there's no reason he can't overtake them, and the higher up the ladder prospects the go, the more performance matters. He has significant tools and significant talent, obviously. If he translates his tools into performance more at higher levels, then he'll be rated ahead of them. Right now he is, but he's also a Texan who came into pro ball with a lot more polish than, say Maybin. He SHOULD be outperforming Maybin. I don't know what Upton's excuse is for not performing, but everyone still says the supreme talent is in there, and it shows itself from time to time.

John Manuel: Let's let some of those guys play first, but Jesus Montero seems like the obvious choice, because of the power. But let's let these guys play.

John Manuel: Bowden. Definitely not Rozier . . . I didn't understand that signing when it happened, and I don't know. Maybe he's the next Zach Miner, another Boras client who got more than $1 million and eventually has been a success after a very fringy minor league career.

John Manuel: Garza has been a surprise; I liked him but would not have guessed this. Jason Hirsh is another; I didn't think he was elite before, I'd say he is now (not a No. 1 but a really impressive starting pitching prospect). Jose Tabata has proved he's for real, that's been impressive. Fernando Martinez was on his way to doing so before his injuries and now Deolis Guerra is doing some of the same. Chuck Lofgren has been a surprise; Adam Lind is another, two guys who have really improved their prospect rankings that I didn't include on my lists.

John Manuel: I've talked Elbert but I wanted to add in something on Mitch Hilligoss . . . I had a scout tell me Hilligoss is one of the best college hitters he's ever seen. The scout didn't know where Hilligoss profiled defensively, and that was a problem, but he really, really liked Hilligoss' bat, and that's the consensus. I think he was a nice pick, part of a very intriguing Yankees draft.

John Manuel: Not really. I like Frank Diaz and all, and Kory Casto is fine, but no. This is a farm system that has had a bad year and it actually hurts them to give up Darryl Thompson in that Reds trade, because their pitching depth in the minors . . . yikes. It's just not good. They've had some guys go backwards this year.

John Manuel: Sounds like BJ will be up in a matter of days or weeks; reports on him at 3B have been very good. I'm not so sure on Delmon, even with the current hole in RF in Tampa. I would guess Delmon will be a September callup. Marte seems like a case of let him get more confidence in Triple-A, which he seems to gain by the day, and then see what can be gotten for Aaron Boone to free up space for him in a lost year in Cleveland.

John Manuel: Huber has never been in the same discussion, not for me. He's a righthanded-hitting 1B; that's a tough profile, and he's never been a 30-HR guy for me. At first base, that's what it takes to be a star. I think eventually he can be a league-average hitter, maybe a tick above.

John Manuel: Thank you Fred. Matt Kemp, as I believe I've written before in chats, is a guy we blew it on in that we ranked him high, but never as high as Logan White told us we should. Not like Logan was that specific, but he's ALWAYS been extremely high on Kemp. He liked Kemp as much as any player he got in the '03 draft, one that also netted the Dodgers Chad Billingsley, Chuck Tiffany, Xavier Paul and Travis Denker among others. We didn't listen hard enough and looked too much at the numbers--the K-BB ratio and the home-road splits last year at Vero Beach. I would probably put Kemp at No. 7, ahead of Butler, right there after Milledge.

John Manuel: Here's how I feel about him: in the On the Radar section (which wasn't all-inclusive but I tried to be comprehensive), he was the only low Class A RHP included. I do think he will earn consideration as an elite prosspect when the year is all said and done, I'd just like to see him make it through a full year first.

John Manuel: He was in the On The Radar section because for me, he has broken through. I would want to talk to scouts more specifically about catchers, but he has to be in the mix to be (drumroll please) Best Catcher in the Minors. Saltalamacchia and Kottaras are also in that mix, whcih apparently is limited to those of Mediterranean descent.

John Manuel: 1. Milledge. 2. F. Martinez. 3. Guerra. 4. Humber. 5. Niese. I might need to move Humber up there. We have had very positive reports on him in the FSL since his return from TJ, 90-94, plus curve at times, plus change at times.

John Manuel: It's certainly possible. For me, I would not yet, not with his stuff. The Jays have toyed with him enough. Give him a full year as a starter again to work on his control. He was doing well as a starter until (a) he got hurt and (b) he became a reliever. Bouncing Brandon League between roles really did wonders for him as a prospect; I hope the Jays don't make the same mistake on McGowan.

John Manuel: Brignac should have been in the "just missed the cut." He's one of the top 3-5 prospects in the California League, check out Daily Dish today to see what Brignac has to say about his glove. Dude can hit. McGee is a little further away for me, actually, a lot further away, but he's also discussed in a scout's view today. Longoria probably ranks ahead of Niemann just because Niemann hasn't shown he can stay healthy, but as always I am a huge fan of Jeff Niemann.

John Manuel: Gallagher and Veal are signs of life, as is Jonathan Mota, a slick-fielding SS, and Jake Fox has had a nice year, though he's finding Double-A a difficult adjustment. Just not a great farm system right now, and a system that is having consistent problems in player development in terms of taking the raw talent, keeping it healthy and getting the most out of it.

John Manuel: I think he's going to have to go to the OF because the Sox like Joe Crede (which is perfectly reasonable). Everything we get on him is that he's good enough with the glove at third base but not as good as Crede.

John Manuel: Good question; maybe he could help them stretch out Verlander's innings in Detroit. Right now they clearly don't need him, but I think he's ready. He'll be up in September at the latest.

John Manuel: Had to figure this was coming . . . Interesting year for the system. Two completely breakthrough players. They both were in the top 20, not just the top 25. Then Eric Duncan flops at Triple-A but recovers nicely at Double-A, and he's just 21. Melky Cabrera obviously took a big step forward too. Austin Jackson's had a nice year, same for J. Brent Cox, and Tyler Clippard is recovering nicely from a poor start. Duncan probably is still a Top 100 prospect, and Austin Jackson might be. It's been a decent year for the system, but the struggles of guys like CJ Henry, Vechionacci, E. Nunez and Tim Battle still make me think it's a middle of the pack organization.

John Manuel: Tie goes to the LHP; yes, I do like Veal a bit better but I would welcome more evidence in the debate.

John Manuel: On to the lightning round . . .

John Manuel: Not too soon, maybe 2008? And more than 20.

John Manuel: At the top. The '07 draft class looks a lot better than '06, as for No. 1, Michael Main (rhp) and Justin Jackson (ss) are the top two prep talents, with Vanderbilt LHP David Price the top college prospect.

John Manuel: Votto would; he got much love from scouts at the Futures Game. Stubbs would not, he needs to hit consistently with wood to earn consideration.

John Manuel: Not hearing great things about either one; I've kind of always thought Holliman's size would force him into a relief role, where I think he can be quite good.

John Manuel: Hard to know what to think of him; big stuff, never on par with Cain and Felix for me, he's never consistently dominated like those two did in the minors. Big stuff, inconsistent mechanics have led to injuries. He was "On the Radar" and is a top 50 guy for me.

John Manuel: I could see him up this year, though I think the Reds will wait until next year.

John Manuel: Another good Q. Hard to think either one will be as dominant as Liriano and Verlander have been; those guys are real and spectacular. I'd put them closer to Billingsley and Cain, a little more raw (especially Bailey). Hughes has polish and stuff but I don't see him as being as electric as any of the others. he could be the most productive of the group but I don't think of him as electric. Elbert, as I have said, also belongs in this discussion for me.

John Manuel: Yes, the scouts I've talked to recently say 3B, and he should be ready in '07 if he's not already.

John Manuel: Tulo. Not hearing good things on Ian Stewart right now, which is a shame.

John Manuel: I have guarded optimism that he could be. He could even have more value because he's a lefthanded hitter.

John Manuel: Hmmmm . . . .275-.330-.470 seems about right. It might even be too optimistic. I like Corey Hart too.

John Manuel: According to the scouts I have talked to, he has a better hit tool (perhaps by two grades, because Tulo's swing can get long), and similar power. He's a better runner. Defensively Tulo is better but Drew is solid average. So for me he is, but you could order the top nine players (all hitters) differently and defend it. I don't see a ton of difference between them all. That order was difficult for me.

John Manuel: I still like Clement but it's hard to deny Jones with how he's handled the transition to CF. He's got mad tools, controlling the K zone to maximize his hit tool will be the key. He gets a lot of flattering comparisons (I've read Vernon Wells lately and I've read Eric Davis). In my head he's Mike Cameron without the gold glove defense. Mike Cameron's career numbers are .249-.340-.442. Maybe that's why I don't think of him as an elite prospect, perhaps I should.

John Manuel: Yes. At some time, he has to produce power to be an average corner OF. He's slugging .419 at Charlotte; that's not enough for me.

John Manuel: Not really; he doesn't throw nearly as hard as Kazmir, though he has good stuff. I like Kazmir better. Lester definitely is a top 25 kind of guy, though. If i had included Ps in the major leagues but still rookie eligible (i.e., excluding verlander, Liriano, cain, Papelbon), Lester would probably rank first or second after Billingsley. He's very impressive.

John Manuel: That clicking sound can't be good; he looks like a reliever to me, and he'd have to be Papelbon-esque to get in as a reliever for me.

John Manuel: Good question. LaRoche's shoulder injury was a major concern for me. Braun has sick bat speed and is in his first pro season and already in Double-A despite some injuries. The scouts I've talked to consider him a batter power prospect and a better athlete. I will say LaRoche should have been in my "just missing the cut" list, that was an oversight, perhaps prompted by LaRoche's injury.

John Manuel: It does. Is there a question in there? Guerra's last start was his best, he's had a very good year for his age and probably is a Top 100 caliber guy.

John Manuel: Absolutely. Great strides made thanks to guys picked in the last three drafts. They have legit guys from Double-A on down and have had very few flameouts this year (Szymanski, Valiquette and Dickerson stick out as disappointments). Encouraging signs. Still progress to be made but lots of progress.

John Manuel: He was in the big leagues (still is) so not eligible.

John Manuel: Asked and answered counselor. "Character will damage a player in all aspects because eventually, in one way or another, it will keep him off the field." Delmon Young's makeup (character, Bondsian personality, however you want to put it) will keep him from fulfilling his potential, because I don't think he has Bonds' talent. I consider Stephen Drew a much safer bet to reach his ceiling, which is .300-.380-.500 as a lefthanded hitting SS.

John Manuel: Simply put, more power.

John Manuel: I guess Marte, since I ranked him 19th and didn't put LaRoche in the 25.

John Manuel: They were on the worksheet to borrow a phrase from my college days. I'd have to do more research but on the top of my head, yes, Lofgren and Drennen are in the discussion at LHP and CF, not for the top but for the top 5-10.

John Manuel: Butler, because the bat makes the biggest impression, and he has a polished power bat.

John Manuel: I wrote a Yovani Gallardo feature in the previous issue that addressed most of that, but I'll throw in that he wasn't at his best in the Futures Game (I hope), and his mechanics surprised me. I still think Mark Rogers has more upside but Gallardo is a safer bet to be a solid big leaguer.

John Manuel: No; depth is a significant problem.

John Manuel: I'd rank them Danks, Volquez, Diamond. Danks might be the only starter of the trio, the other two might be better suited as relievers, since they don't throw enough strikes or throw consistent strikes with their breaking balls.

John Manuel: His command is legit, but Wes Roemer at CS Fullerton might be a better comp than Maddux. When Maddux was 22, he went 18-8, 3.18 in the big leagues. Slowey's very good, but I don't see HOF coming from him. He's very impressive though and like Maddux (and Roemer) he's not imposing physically.

John Manuel: Not sure why they haven't called him up yet frankly, it seems like he should get a ride on the closer-go-round.

John Manuel: Upton has all five tools, Gonzalez isn't a plus runner, might be a slightly better hitter right now, Upton's tools just get scouts so excited, moreso than Gonzalez's do.

John Manuel: Wow, a patient fan. Three-four years is very reasonable, he's been solid this year for a HS catcher in full-season ball. He's in a 1-for-30 slump as the grind seems to be getting to him.

John Manuel: Not a huge fan, he's athletic and has power but doesn't control the K zone (8-71 BB-K ratio). I thought he was an overdraft last year.

John Manuel: Manny smiles a lot. It doesn't seem like that's a good tool for Delmon, the smile, happy-go-funky tool. The Albert Belle comps are ringing more true than a Manny comp. Belle was certainly productive though.

John Manuel: Last but not least . . . I'd go with Anibal Sanchez, with Sean West, Chris Volstad and Aaron Thompson in the mix as well. Lots of pitching, not a lot of hitting in that organization right now, but it's good to have numbers on the mound.

John Manuel: Thanks for all the questions, more than 200 still sitting there after 2 hours. We appreciate the interest, talk to you again soon.