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By Jim Callis
November 21, 2011

In the Oct. 25 Ask BA, I discussed the flaws in the free-agent compensation process. I suggested some remedies, such as reducing compensation for relievers (who are overvalued by the statistical rating system MLB uses) and eliminating it all together for Type B free agents (those who rank in the 21-40 percent group at their position).

From what we're hearing, both of those changes may be part of the new collective bargaining agreement, the details of which should be revealed tomorrow. Once we learn exactly what we're dealing with, I'll update the list of potential compensation free agents. Be sure to check out BaseballAmerica.com, as we'll break down exactly how the CBA changes will affect the draft and player development.

We have less than a month before we send the 2012 Prospect Handbook to the printer, so Ask BA is going into its annual winter hibernation. I'll do one more Ask BA between now and Christmas, most likely on the Monday after the Winter Meetings conclude, which would be Dec. 12. Please keep the questions coming.

First-round picks sometimes pass on signing and choose a different route. Most of these players re-enter the draft and sign down the road. What has been the success rate of unsigned first-round picks, and is it any better or worse than the rate for those who sign?

Michael Dominguez
Whitby, Ont.

There have been 48 players who didn't sign after getting selected in the first round of the June draft. Here's the complete list:

Year	Player, Pos.	Pick, Team	Signed
1965	Eddie Leon, ss	No. 9, Twins	2nd round, Indians, 1967 (June sec.)
1965	Mike Adamson, rhp	No. 18, Phillies	No. 1, Orioles, 1967 (June sec.)
1966	John Curtis, lhp	No. 12, Indians	No. 10, Red Sox, 1968 (June sec.)
1966	Rick Konik, 1b	No. 14, Tigers	never signed pro contract
1968	Pete Broberg, rhp	No. 2, Athletics	No. 1, Senators, 1971 (June sec.)
1969	Alan Bannister, ss	No. 5, Angels	No. 1, Phillies, 1973 (January)
1969	John Simmons, ss/rhp	No. 23, Royals	never signed pro contract
1970	Randy Scarbery, rhp	No. 7, Astros	No. 23, Athletics, 1973
1970	Jimmy Hacker, 3b	No. 16, Red Sox	5th round, Braves, 1974
1970	George Ambrow, ss	No. 23, Mets	never signed pro contract
1971	Danny Goodwin, c	No. 1, White Sox	No. 1, Angels, 1975
1971	Condredge Holloway, ss	No. 4, Expos	never signed pro contract
1971	Mike Miley, ss	No. 24, Reds	No. 10, Angels, 1974
1972	Dick Ruthven, rhp	No. 8, Twins	No. 1, Phillies, 1973 (January sec.)
1974	Jerry Johnson, c	No. 22, Athletics	No. 11, Cardinals, 1975 (January sec.)
1976	Bill Bordley, lhp	No. 4, Brewers	free agent, Giants, 1979
1976	Jamie Allen, 3b/rhp	No. 10, Twins	2nd round, Mariners, 1979
1976	Mike Sullivan, rhp	No. 24, Athletics	No. 22, Reds, 1979
1979	Juan Bustabad, ss	No. 5, Athletics	No. 1, Red Sox, 1980 (January sec.)
1979	Steve Buechele, ss	No. 9, White Sox	5th round, Rangers, 1982
1979	Rick Luecken, rhp	No. 18, Giants	27th round, Mariners, 1983
1979	Mike Stenhouse, of	No. 26, Athletics	No. 4, Expos, 1980 (January sec.)
1983	Tim Belcher, rhp	No. 1, Twins	No. 1, Yankees, 1984 (January sec.)
1986	Greg McMurtry, of	No. 14, Red Sox	never signed pro contract
1987	Brad DuVall, rhp	No. 15, Orioles	No. 23, Cardinals, 1988
1988	Alex Fernandez, rhp	No. 24, Brewers	No. 4, White Sox, 1990
1989	Charles Johnson, c	No. 10, Expos	No. 28, Marlins, 1992
1989	Calvin Murray, of	No. 11, Indians	No. 7, Giants, 1992
1989	Scott Burrell, of	No. 26, Mariners	5th round, Blue Jays, 1990
1991	Kenny Henderson, rhp	No. 5, Brewers	5th round, Padres, 1995
1991	John Burke, rhp	No. 6, Astros	No. 27, Rockies, 1992
1993	Jason Varitek, c	No. 21, Twins	No. 14, Mariners, 1994
1995	Chad Hutchinson, rhp	No. 26, Braves	2nd round, Cardinals, 1998
1997	J.D. Drew, of	No. 2, Phillies	No. 5, Cardinals, 1998
1997	Tyrell Godwin, of	No. 24, Yankees	3rd round, Blue Jays, 2001
2000	Matt Harrington, rhp	No. 7, Rockies	free agent, Cubs, 2006
2001	Jeremy Sowers, lhp	No. 20, Reds	No. 6, Indians, 2004
2001	Alan Horne, rhp	No. 27, Indians	11th round, Yankees, 2005
2002	John Mayberry Jr., of	No. 28, Mariners	No. 19, Rangers, 2005
2004	Wade Townsend, rhp	No. 8, Orioles	No. 8, Devil Rays, 2005
2008	Aaron Crow, rhp	No. 9, Nationals	No. 12, Royals, 2009
2008	Gerrit Cole, rhp	No. 28, Yankees	No. 1, Pirates, 2011
2009	Matt Purke, lhp	No. 14, Rangers	3rd round, Nationals, 2011
2009	LeVon Washington, of	No. 30, Rays	2nd round, Indians, 2010
2010	Barret Loux, rhp	No. 6, Diamondbacks	free agent, Rangers, 2010
2010	Karsten Whitson, rhp	No. 9, Padres	eligible again in 2013
2010	Dylan Covey, rhp	No. 14, Brewers	eligible again in 2013
2011	Tyler Beede, rhp	No. 21, Blue Jays	eligible again in 2014

The general rule of thumb is that one-third of first-rounders become successful big leaguers, one-third make it to the majors but aren't significant players and one-third fall short. The unsigned first-rounders haven't lived up to that standard.

Excluding the last seven players on the above list because they've barely begun their pro careers or have yet to re-enter the draft, 26 of the 41 unsigned first-rounders have reached the majors. But only five have been all-stars (Crow, Drew, Johnson, Ruthven, Varitek), which matches the number who never signed a pro contract (Ambrow, Holloway, Konik, McMurtry, Simmons). There have been nearly as many unsigned first-rounders who played professionally in other sports: Burrell in the NBA, Holloway in the Canadian Football League and Hutchinson and McMurtry in the NFL.

Sixteen of the players became June first-rounders again, including Cole, the No. 1 overall pick in 2011. Nine more went in the first round of different phases of the draft, as MLB held multiple drafts annually until consolidating into one draft in 1987. All five of the all-stars were redrafted in the first round, including Ruthven, the top choice in the secondary phase of the 1973 January draft.

On your Twitter feed, you mentioned that you had done some research for a column that showed the Cardinals led all clubs with 24 big leaguers from the 2005-07 drafts. Can we please see the team-by-team totals?

Nate White
Kansas City, Mo.

So far, 375 players have reached the big leagues after signing out of the 2005-07 drafts. That works out to an average of 12.5 team, with totals ranging from the Cardinals (24) on the high end to the Astros (four on the low end). Here's how many major leaguers each club signed, along with their most productive player to date:

Team	No.	Most Productive Big Leaguer
Cardinals	24	Colby Rasmus (No. 28, 2005)
Padres	22	Chase Headley (2nd round, 2005)
Marlins	21	Mike Stanton (2nd round, 2007)
Tigers	18	Matt Joyce (12th round, 2005)
Diamondbacks	17	Justin Upton (No. 1, 2005)
Reds	17	Jay Bruce (No. 12, 2005)
Yankees	17	Brett Gardner (3rd round, 2005)
Giants	14	Tim Lincecum (No. 10, 2006)
Rangers	14	Tommy Hunter (supp. 1st round, 2007)
Red Sox	14	Jacoby Ellsbury (No. 23, 2005)
Brewers	13	Ryan Braun (No. 5, 2005)
Mets	13	Mike Pelfrey (No. 9, 2005)
Twins	13	Matt Garza (No. 25, 2005)
Angels	12	Peter Bourjos (10th round, 2005)
Athletics	12	Trevor Cahill (2nd round, 2006)
Orioles	12	Matt Wieters (No. 5, 2007)
Blue Jays	11	Ricky Romero (No. 6, 2005)
Braves	11	Yunel Escobar (2nd round, 2005)
Mariners	11	Doug Fister (7th round, 2006)
Phillies	11	Josh Outman (10th round, 2005)
Indians	10	Josh Tomlin (19th round, 2006)
Nationals	10	Ryan Zimmerman (No. 4, 2005)
White Sox	10	Clayton Richard (8th round, 2005)
Pirates	9	Andrew McCutchen (No. 11, 2005)
Cubs	8	Darwin Barney (4th round, 2007)
Royals	8	Alex Gordon (No. 2, 2005)
Rays	7	Evan Longoria (No. 3, 2006)
Dodgers	6	Clayton Kershaw (No. 6, 2006)
Rockies	6	Troy Tulowitzki (No. 7, 2005)
Astros	4	Bud Norris (6th round, 2006)

Of course, quantity is not the same as quality. The Rays rank just 27th with seven big leaguers, but they might have the best 2005-07 draft crop when all is said and done, thanks to Longoria, David Price and Matt Moore. The Dodgers and Rockies are tied for next to last with sixth, but there would be more than a few teams that would offer up their entire 2005-07 drafts for Kershaw or Tulowitzki.

In your column on the best picks from each draft , your referred to Roy Oswalt being a "draft-and-follow" What is that? Does it still exist?

Jorge Paez
Austin

The draft-and-follow process referred to players who were drafted but chose to attend junior college rather than turn pro. Teams still controlled the rights to those players the following spring, and were able to sign them between the end of their juco season and one week before the next draft.

The rule existed from 1987, when baseball eliminated the January draft and went to one draft, through 2006. It was eliminated when MLB negotiated an Aug. 15 signing deadline in the subsequent collective bargaining agreement.

The process allowed teams to selected raw players and watch them develop for another year before having to place a value on them. The Astros took Oswalt in the 23rd round after his freshman year at Holmes (Miss.) CC in 1996, then signed him for $475,000 the following spring. If they hadn't, he might have been a first-round pick in the 1997 draft.

Other draft-and-follow success stories include Mark Buehrle, Travis Hafner, Mat Latos, Andy Pettitte, Jorge Posada and Jordan Walden.

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