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By Jim Callis
January 19, 2009

We had a slight thawing of the free-agent market last week, with Derek Lowe signing with the Braves for four years and $60 million. Lowe is a Type A free agent, but Atlanta's first-round pick is protected from compensation (for just the second time in the last 18 drafts) because it falls in the upper half of the round. The Dodgers will receive a supplemental first-rounder (currently No. 36) and the Braves' second-rounder (currently No. 50) for the loss of the Lowe.

Below is the updated draft order, and the list of 13 remaining compensation free agents.

First-Round Picks 1. Nationals 2. Mariners 3. Padres 4. Pirates 5. Orioles 6. Giants 7. Braves 8. Reds 9. Tigers 10. Nationals (for failure to sign 2008 first-rounder Aaron Crow) 11. Rockies 12. Royals 13. Athletics 14. Rangers 15. Indians 16. Diamondbacks 17. Dodgers 18. Marlins 19. Cardinals 20. Blue Jays 21. Mariners (if they fail to sign 2008 first-rounder Joshua Fields) 22. Astros 23. Twins 24. White Sox 25. Angels (from Mets for Francisco Rodriguez, A) 26. Angels (from Yankees for Mark Teixeira, A) 27. Brewers 28. Mariners (from Phillies for Raul Ibanez, A) 29. Yankees (for failure to sign 2008 first-rounder Gerrit Cole) 30. Red Sox 31. Rays 32. Cubs 33. Rockies (from Angels for Brian Fuentes, A) Supplemental First-Round Picks 34. Mariners (Ibanez) 35. Rockies (Fuentes) 36. Dodgers (Derek Lowe, A, to Braves) 37. Blue Jays (A.J. Burnett, A, to Yankees) 38. Brewers (C.C. Sabathia, A, to Yankees) 39. Angels (Teixeira) 40. Angels (Rodriguez) 41. Reds (Jeremy Affeldt, B, to Giants) 42. Rangers (Milton Bradley, B, to Cubs) Second-Round Changes 49. Pirates (for failure to sign 2008 second-rounder Tanner Scheppers) 50. Dodgers (from Braves for Lowe) 67. Brewers (from Yankees for Sabathia) Third-Round Changes 76. Yankees (for failure to sign 2008 second-rounder Scott Bittle) 98. Blue Jays (from Yankees for Burnett) Supplemental Third-Round Picks 105. Astros (for failure to sign 2008 third-rounder Chase Davidson) Remaining Compensation Free Agents Ari: Juan Cruz (A), Orlando Hudson (A), Brandon Lyon (B). Bos: Jason Varitek (A), Paul Byrd (B). CWS: Orlando Cabrera (A). KC: Mark Grudzielanek (B). LAA: Jon Garland (B). LAD: Manny Ramirez (A). Mil: Ben Sheets (A), Brian Shouse (B). Min: Dennys Reyes (B). NYM: Oliver Perez (A).

A few years down the road, would you rather have Elvis Andrus (Rangers) or Alcides Escobar (Brewers)? Is there any other shortstop that you would put in their class? Would Jose Reyes be a valid comparison for either of them?

Zach Ellenthal
Wilton, Conn.

I'd rather have Escobar, though there's not a big difference between the two. They're similar offensive players, with Escobar having more power and Andrus being a better basestealer. They're both very good defenders, with Escobar maybe rating a slight edge. Andrus is nearly two years younger than Escobar and they've both made it to Double-A at this point, so Andrus may have more room for improvement. Then again, Escobar is still very young at 22.

When I put together my personal Top 50 Prospects list for the 2009 Prospect Handbook, I listed two shortstops ahead of Escobar (No. 27) and Andrus (who didn't make my cut, and in retrospect I may regret that decision). I put the Rays' Tim Beckham at No. 11 and the White Sox' Gordon Beckham at No. 23. Tim Beckham is a shortstop in the traditional mold like Escobar and Andrus, and I think he'll be more of an offensive threat than they will, especially in the power department. Gordon Beckham has more pop than any of them, though he's more of an average defender than a plus with the glove.

I wouldn't compare Andrus or Escobar to Reyes, who debuted in the majors the day before he turned 20. He has more dynamic speed and significantly more strength. If Andrus and Escobar continue to develop, you could dream that they could become the second coming of Reyes, but that's not too realistic.

Does the Dodgers' Ivan DeJesus Jr. profile better as a shortstop or second baseman at the major league level? What could prevent him from being an everyday shortstop: his glove, arm or instincts? Also, do you see him as a potential leadoff man, if he keeps improving his hitting and plate discipline?

Dustin Nosler
Elk Grove, Calif.

I'll take Shortstops for $200, Alex . . . DeJesus profiles better as a shortstop, though Rafael Furcal has a firm hold on that job after re-signing with the Dodgers for three years and a $30 million. With Blake DeWitt, Mark Loretta and Tony Abreu available at second base, DeJesus probably faces a full season in Triple-A.

He profiles better at shortstop because he's solid enough to handle the defensive responsibilities, making him more valuable there. While he's coming off his best offensive season, having hit .324/.419/.423 and led the Double-A Southern League in on-base percentage, I'm not sure he'd give a team the extra offense it would want in a second baseman. He has a chance to hit at the top of the lineup if he continues to show that kind of bat and offensive ability, but he's not going to hit for much power or steal many bases.

When was the last time a player selected in the top half of the first round from a four-year college started at a level below high Class A? I know that Reds outfielder Drew Stubbs spent 2006 at Dayton, but I couldn't find another player since the 2003 draft who wasn't sidelined by injury who started his first full season below High A. Are any of the nine college players selected in the top half of the draft in 2008 expected to start in Low A? Is that becoming increasingly rare in an era in which college players are expected to be more advanced?

Tommy Szarka
Potsdam, N.Y.

In the 2000-07 drafts, 64 college players signed in the upper half of the first round. Kenny Baugh, Brad Lincoln, Joe Saunders and Wade Townsend all missed their first full pro seasons with injuries, while Chris Smith battled shoulder problems and pitched a few innings in Rookie ball before getting diagnosed with a torn labrum. Of the 59 healthy players, all but three opened their first full seasons in high Class A or above.

The three exceptions were back-to-back Pirates righthanders, John Van Benschoten and Bryan Bullington, along with Stubbs. Van Benschoten was more of an outfielder in college and was transitioning to a full-time pitcher. Bullington, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2002 draft, signed late and was making his pro debut in 2003. Stubbs had more questions about his bat than any of the recent high college picks.

All nine of the college players chosen in the top 15 picks in 2008—Pedro Alvarez, Brian Matusz, Buster Posey, Yonder Alonso, Gordon Beckham, Jason Castro, Justin Smoak, Jemile Weeks, Brett Wallace—should open this season at high Class A or above. Most of them probably will begin the year in Double-A.

College players drafted in the upper half of the first round almost always are advanced prospects expected to move quickly, and that's not a new development. I checked the top 15 picks in the 1968, 1978 and 1988 drafts, and 16 of the 18 collegians started their first full season in high Class A or above.

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