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By Jim Callis
June 9, 2008

Since 2003, I've conducted a hypothetical 10-round draft to see how well my supposed expertise would hold up. This year's crop will be posted in an online column later this week, but as a sneak preview I'll reveal that I spent the 18th overall pick on Eastern Kentucky lefthander Christian Friedrich.

Friedrich pitched his high school ball five minutes from where I live, but I didn't take him to appease the fans on the north side of Chicago. I came away with the third-best college starter in the draft at No. 18, and that doesn't happen too often.

For posterity's sake, below are all my choices from 2003-07. I signed all but three: Myron Leslie in 2003, Luke Hochevar in 2005 and Colby Shreve in 2007. I just realized that I cheated myself out of a sandwich pick in 2006 for failing to sign Hochevar in the previous first round. Looking at my notes, I cost myself Brett Anderson—not good.

2007 Hypothetical Draft (Picking 11th Each Round)
Round	Player, Pos, School	Real Life Draft
1st	Jason Heyward, of, HS/Georgia	Atl, 1st
Supp. 1st	Justin Jackson, ss, HS/North Carolina	Tor, supp. 1st
2nd	Nevin Griffith, rhp, HS/Florida	CWS, 2nd
3rd	Sam Demel, rhp, Texas Christian	Oak, 3rd
4th	T.J. McFarland, lhp, HS/Illinois	Cle, 4th
5th	Will Middlebrooks, 3b/rhp, HS/Texas	Bos, 5th
6th	Matt Angle, of, Ohio State	Bal, 7th
7th	Tim Smith, of, Arizona State	Tex, 7th
8th	Colby Shreve, rhp, CC of Southern Nevada	Atl, 8th
9th	Kade Koewen, of, Louisiana State-Eunice JC	Bos, 9th
10th	Dan Rohlfing, c, HS/Missouri	Min, 14th
Note: Supplemental first-rounder was 41st overall choice.

2006 Hypothetical Draft (Picking 19th Each Round)
Round	Player, Pos, School	Real Life Draft
1st	Brett Sinkbeil, rhp, Missouri State	Fla, 1st
2nd	Wes Hodges, 3b, Georgia Tech	Cle, 2nd
3rd	Matt Sulentic, of, HS/Texas	Oak, 3rd
4th	Ryan Morris, lhp, HS/North Carolina	Cle, 4th
5th	Chris Archer, rhp, HS/North Carolina	Cle, 5th
6th	Zach Daeges, of, Creighton	Bos, 6th
7th	Luke Gorsett, of, Nebraska	StL, 7th
8th	Kent Gerst, of, HS/Missouri	CWS, 8th
9th	Kyle Gibson, rhp, HS/Indiana	Phi, 36th
10th	Justin Woodall, lhp/of, HS/Mississippi	NYM, 19th

2005 Hypothetical Draft (Picking 17th Each Round)
Round	Player, Pos, School	Real Life Draft
1st	Luke Hochevar, rhp, Tennessee	LA, supp. 1st
Supp. 1st	Michael Bowden, rhp, HS/Illinois	Bos, supp. 1st
2nd	Bryan Morris, rhp, HS/Tennessee	TB, 3rd
3rd	Jordan Schafer, of, HS/Florida	Atl, 3rd
4th	Seth Johnston, ss, Texas	SD, 5th
5th	Aaron Cunningham, of, Everett (Wash.) CC	CWS, 6th
6th	Jeremy Slayden, of, Georgia Tech	Phi, 8th
7th	Paul Phillips, rhp, Oakland	Tor, 9th
8th	Daniel McCutchen, rhp, Oklahoma	StL, 12th
9th	Mark Wagner, c, UC Irvine	Bos, 9th
10th	Mike Bell, 3b, Grayson County (Texas) CC	Mil, 15th
Note: Supplemental first-rounder was 35th overall choice.

2004 Hypothetical Draft (Picking 21st Each Round)
Round	Player, Pos, School	Real Life Draft
1st	Jon Zeringue, of, Louisiana State	Ari, 2nd
2nd	Erik Cordier, rhp, HS/Wisconsin	KC, 2nd
3rd	Andrew Dobies, lhp, Virginia	Bos, 3rd
4th	Mike Butia, of, James Madison	Cle, 5th
5th	Brad McCann, 3b, Clemson	Fla, 6th
6th	Jason Quarles, rhp, Southern	Pit, 7th
7th	Grant Plumley, ss, Oral Roberts	NYY, 9th
8th	Richard Mercado, c, Arizona	Ari, 12th
9th	Jeff Gogal, lhp, Montclair State (N.J.)	Fla, 12th
10th	Micah Owings, rhp, Georgia Tech	ChC, 19th

2003 Hypothetical Draft (Picking 31st Each Round)
Round	Player, Pos, School	Real Life Draft
1st	Ryan Sweeney, of, HS/Iowa	CWS, 2nd
2nd	Tony Richie, c, Florida State	ChC, 4th
3rd	Cliff Davis, rhp, HS/Mississippi	Hou, 6th
4th	Justin James, rhp, Missouri	Tor, 5th
5th	Clark Girardeau, rhp, South Alabama	SD, 7th
6th	Andy D'Alessio, 1b, HS/Florida	Cin, 10th
7th	Matt Maniscalco, ss, Mississippi State	TB, 8th
8th	Chris Durbin, of, Baylor	Bos, 10th
9th	Michael Brown, of, William & Mary	Det, 13th
10th	Myron Leslie, ss, South Florida	Phi, 11th

Which players selected in the 2008 immediately take over as their organization's No. 1 prospect? It looks like lefthander David Price beats shortstop Tim Beckham with the Rays, but what about third baseman Pedro Alvarez with the Pirates? First baseman Eric Hosmer over shortstop Mike Moustakas with the Royals? Catcher Buster Posey over first baseman Angel Villalona with the Giants?

Greg Shelley
San Francisco

I love this question. Let's start by tackling the five organizations where there's the most debate, considering only players who haven't exceeded MLB's rookie limits for playing time and who are still in the minors.

The Rays are the first team ever to make the No. 1 overall selection in consecutive drafts. In 2007, Price was an easy pick, while this year Beckham stood out the most in a more crowded field. It's difficult to argue with either choice, but Price has proven himself against better competition and has a better chance of becoming a star, so this year's No. 1 pick is not his organization's top prospect.

The Orioles are another tough call. They just landed the best pitcher in the 2008 draft, Brian Matusz, but he's not quite as good as last year's first-rounder, catcher Matt Wieters. And while we're on the subject of switch-hitting sluggers who played at Stratford High (Goose Creek, S.C.), I'll give the edge to just-drafted first baseman Justin Smoak over first baseman Chris Davis in the Rangers system.

The Royals grabbed the most devastating high school hitter in each of the last two drafts, Moustakas in 2007 and Hosmer this June. The value of their ultimate defensive positions will narrow, and given Moustakas' struggles in low Class A this year (though he does have eight homers in the pitcher-friendly Midwest League), I'd rank Hosmer ahead of him.

With the Twins, it's easy to love the tools of No. 14 overall pick Aaron Hicks, who has a huge ceiling as both an outfielder and a righthander. But outfielder Ben Revere is off to a sizzling start in low Class A, and I'll bet on his bat and speed.

Including Hosmer and Smoak, eigth of the recent first-round picks will ascend to the top of their organization's prospect lists once they sign pro contracts. Alvarez' devastating offensive potential puts him ahead of outfielder Andrew McCutchen with the Pirates. Lefthander Madison Bumgarner has surpassed Villalona in the Giants system, but Posey's all-around excellence as a catcher gives him more value than either.

The seventh through 10th picks in the 2008 draft all will become their club's No. 1 prospect. The pure hitting of first baseman Yonder Alonso (Reds) pushes him past outfielder Drew Stubbs and shortstop Todd Frazier. The White Sox entered the season with the No. 30-ranked system in the game, so power-hitting shortstop Gordon Beckham easily jumps to the head of the class over lefthander Aaron Poreda.

The Nationals have added several talented pitchers in the last two years, none better than Aaron Crow, who leapfrogs the rest of Washington's arms as well as first baseman Chris Marrero. And while catcher Jason Castro was a surprise choice at No. 10, he's still the cream of a depleted Astros system, where righthander Bud Norris is as good as it gets.

We all know the Mets have one of the thinnest farm systems in the game. If you had to redo their Top 10 Prospects list after the draft, how would it look? I'd imagine first-rounders Ike Davis and Reese Havens would easily rank near the top.

Dan Troy
Davis, Calif.

The Mets' conservatism in the draft and their willingness to include prospects in trades for veterans has depleted their farm system. Coming into the season, we rated their minor league talent the 28th-best in the game, ahead of only the Astros and White Sox.

Armed with two extra picks as compensation for the loss of free agent Tom Glavine, New York was in position to add some talent via the 2008 draft. Assuming they sign all of their top choices, I see four of their recent draftees cracking a midseason Top 10 list:

1. Fernando Martinez, of
Still young and talented, but his lack of production may mean he's overhyped.
2. Ike Davis, 1b
Hulking lefthanded slugger can handle the outfield and pitch, too.
3. Reese Havens, ss
More likely a third baseman or possibly a catcher, stands out with approach and pop.
4. Jon Niese, lhp
Quietly having success in Double-A at age 21, he owns three solid pitches.
5. Dan Murphy, 3b
Having a breakout year with a .325 average and eight homers in Double-A.
6. Mike Carp, 1b
Back on track in Double-A after slumping in 2007, he's hitting .351 with nine homers.
7. Eddie Kunz, rhp
New York's top 2007 pick has held his own in Double-A in his first full season.
8. Brad Holt, rhp
2008 supplemental first-rounder can touch 96 mph, needs a reliable second pitch.
9. Javier Rodriguez, of
2008 second-rounder is a lean athlete with speed and projectable power.
10. Nick Evans, 1b
Another Double-A masher (.295, nine homers), he destroys lefthanded pitching.

Is there a more underrated coach than Jeff Waggoner at Marshall? He took a moribund program with no home field to the Conference USA championship game, went 30-30-1 and along the way beat NCAA tournament teams Tulane three times, Southern Miss three times and North Carolina State once.

Tim Stephens
Proctorville, Ohio

I turned this question straight over to our college guru, Aaron Fitt. Here's his response:

What Waggoner did in his second season in Huntington is nothing short of incredible. Actually, it's what he did away from Huntington.

Even after 102 seasons, Marshall still does not have an on-campus baseball facility or even a ballpark in town. The Thundering Herd essentially played 61 road games this year, splitting non-conference home contests between West Virginia Tech's Epling Field and high school fields in Kenova, W.Va., and Louisa, Ky. Conference USA home games were played at Appalachian Power Park in Charleston, an hour away from Huntington, so the Herd stayed in hotels for home games and had virtually no home-field advantage.

Despite all that, Waggoner guided Marshall to its first 30-win season ever and its second .500 season in the last 15 years. The Herd very nearly forced its way into regionals, reaching the finals of the C-USA tournament before falling 3-2 to Houston when the Cougars scored the go-ahead run in the eighth inning.

Waggoner is a hot name on college baseball's coaching hot stove. He truly believes he can get quality players to come to Marshall, and he has expressed affection for the school and administration. He says he's not thinking of going anywhere. However, Marshall must step up and deliver a home ballpark to have any shot at keeping such an up-and-coming talent in town for long. Right now, that looks like a longshot, because the school claims to be short on funds.

The other hot name on college coaching wish lists is New Orleans' Tom Walter. The Privateers have reached regionals in consecutive years for the first time in nearly two decades despite unimaginable adversity resulting from Hurricane Katrina. The local Times-Picayune ran a terrific story about Walter that outlines all the obstacles New Orleans has had to overcome and what the future might hold for the coach and the program. It's well worth a read.

 

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