Many Factors Kept USA Out Of Athens

Complete Coverage of the Americas Olympic Qualifier

By John Manuel
November 8, 2003

Team USA finally got some publicity for its efforts in Panama during the Olympic qualifying tournament.

Of course, it was for entirely the wrong reason. News organizations such as ESPN, the New York Times and your local paper all had ignored the team of minor leaguers (and some ex-big leaguers) trying to qualify the U.S. for the 2004 Olympics. Friday night and Saturday morning, though, it got some attention. Mexico upset Team USA 2-1 in Panama, meaning the United States will not get a chance to defend its 2000 Olympic gold medal, won in Sydney, Australia.

A careful, reasoned look at the tournament pinpoints the factors of Team USA's failure to qualify. First, of course, is Mexico. Yes, the Mexican team went 0-3 in pool play, but the losses were to solid teams from Cuba, Canada and Puerto Rico.

Mexico's roster is loaded with minor leaguers, Mexican leaguers and a few with major league experience. Team USA saw three big league arms Friday afternoon in lefties Rigo Beltran and Victor Alvarez and closer Isidro Marquez.

Beltran, 34, has a 4.34 ERA in 106 innings of major league experience, and the 5-foot-11, 215-pounder had an excellent Triple-A season in 2003, going 5-4, 2.71 in 103 innings for Ottawa in the Orioles organization. He stymied Team USA for seven innings, just as he had flummoxed Team USA's college squad this summer in the Pan American Games. Team USA won that game, though, thanks to 8 2/3 heroic relief innings by Texas closer Huston Street.

Alvarez, celebrating his 27th birthday today in fine fashion, only has 10 innings of big league time, but he's pitched in Triple-A in the U.S. the last three seasons and posted a 2.70 ERA with Las Vegas in 63 innings in '03. Marquez, 38, reached the majors with the White Sox in 1993 and has pitched in Mexico since 1996. The last four seasons, he has 143 saves and a 3.00 ERA over 216 innings in the Mexican League.

Luis Garcia, who hit the game-winning homer, has ranked among the Cardinals and Red Sox' top 10 prospects in the past, and has 92 career minor league homers. Yes, he hit just .215-7-51 at Triple-A Buffalo, but he's an accomplished Double-A hitter. That's a similar track record to many of Team USA's players, like third baseman Justin Leone (Mariners).

In other words, give Mexico some credit for this victory. It deserves recognition.

Second is the lack of organization in international baseball, especially in the Western Hemisphere. There's absolutely no excuse for the Olympics being an eight-team tournament (it should be 12) and even less for having three of the eight spots occupied by European teams. It was wrong in 2000, when Canada should have been in after having the best record in the 1999 Pan American Games.

It's even worse now. Greece as the host nation gets in, and it's going to be the most American team in the Olympics, featuring Greek-Americans such as Orioles first-round pick Nick Markakis and ex-big leaguer Erik Pappas. Instead of Italy and the Netherlands both earning berths, they should have been playing for one spot at best. Instead, they will be there with players like E.J. t'Hoen and Claudio Liverziani, and the U.S. will not participate. While upsets are good for the sport, so is having the best teams possible on the field at the Olympics, and that will not happen in Athens.

The argument also could be made that the Olympic champion should not have to re-qualify. And the structure of the qualifying tournament set up by COPABE (the Spanish-language acronym for the Pan American Baseball Confederation), the sports governing body for North and South America, makes little sense for a sport like baseball. A nine-team tournament had a round-robin to eliminate one team--then advanced to a one-and-done medal round. That's logical.

When Aruba, the Bahamas, Dominican Republic and Venezuela failed to show up, the tournament could have been changed to a double-elimination, nine-team tournament. The U.S. could have been given the No. 1 seed as the defending Olympic champion, or Cuba could have earned the top seed as the World Cup champion. Either way, a double-elimination event is much more fair for baseball.

COPABE is widely considered a joke in international circles; it doesn't even have a Website. COPABE tournaments are frequently poorly run, and the Olympic qualifier in Panama is no exception. The non-existent attendance, the shuffled schedule, the last-minute withdrawals by four nations . . . the point is made. The last-minute switch of Friday's game from 8 p.m. to 3 p.m., in order to draw more fans to the host nation's game against Puerto Rico, shouldn't have been a factor, however. Both teams had to deal with it.

More of a factor was Team USA's lefthanded-heavy lineup. Perhaps the presence of J.J. Davis (Pirates) in the lineup would have made a difference, but the right fielder didn't make the team thanks to a hamstring pull he suffered in Arizona.

Obviously, Team USA didn't field a perfect roster. It had an explosive lineup and out-scored its opponents 21-2 in the tournament, but again, it was a left-leaning club, especially without Davis. Scouts in the Arizona Fall League said catcher Joe Mauer (Twins), the Minor League Player of the Year, was the best player on Team USA. They also said other players in the AFL might have been better choices for the American lineup in Panama than those chosen by manager Frank Robinson, his staff and the USA Baseball selection committee, which was headed up by Dean Taylor and Bob Watson.

Would Scott Hairston (Diamondbacks) have made a difference, or Jonny Gomes (Devil Rays) or Jason Dubois (Cubs)? The righty bat who made the team in Davis' stead, Matt Holliday (Rockies), has solid all-around tools but slugged below .400 in the Texas League this year. He wasn't a factor in Panama.

Perhaps Robinson will be faulted for his lineup for the quarterfinal game, which didn't include his best player, Mauer. Instead of having Mauer start, Robinson pinch-hit him for Ernie Young in the bottom of the ninth, with runners at first and second and no outs.

Many fans who have read sabermetric analysis of the game disdain the bunt; let's not debate that here. The vast majority of managers or coaches would bunt in that situation to get the tying and winning runs into scoring position and to stay out of a double play. But if you're going to sacrifice bunt, why use your best hitter--Mauer--to do that? Perhaps Horacio Ramirez, who had to get bunts down all year for the Atlanta Braves in the National League, could have been used.

With Mauer used, Leone didn't come through, grounding back to the mound and leaving the runners stranded with two outs. That brought Laird to the plate. Had Mauer been available, Team USA would have had its best hitter, a lefthanded one at that with international experience, up to bat facing a sidearming righty. If you lose that situation, you tip your cap.

If you lose with perhaps your worst hitter--Laird--at the plate, you leave yourself open for second guessing.

And, combined with clutch playing by Mexico and an illogical, inequitable international setup for the Olympics, it will leave Team USA at home for the Olympics in 2004.