By Jim Callis
December 3, 2002

In a trade that's too close to call at this point, the Athletics and White Sox exchanged closers in a six-player swap on Tuesday. Oakland picked up Keith Foulke, minor league righthander Joe Valentine and backup catcher Mark Johnson, while Chicago added Billy Koch and two players to be named later. Baseball America has learned that one of those players is lefthander Neal Cotts, and the other prospect will be finalized after the major league Rule 5 draft on Dec. 16. The A's also received cash in the deal to equalize the projected 2003 salaries for Foulke and Koch.

Though Koch set a career high for saves in 2002 while Foulke had his worst season since becoming a closer, Koch has been a bit overrated while Foulke has been underrated. Koch throws 5-7 mph harder than Foulke, but Foulke has been more statisically dominant, averaging fewer hits, fewer walks and more strikeouts per nine innings than Koch over the course of their careers.

Who will be the better finisher in the future? Will the Athletics be able to re-sign Foulke, who becomes a free agent after 2003? Will Valentine deliver on his promise as an end-of-the-game reliever, and will Cotts become a middle-of-the-rotation starter? Is Johnson more than a backup catcher with a knack for drawing walks but doing little else offensively? And how good is the other minor leaguer the White Sox will receive? The answers to these questions ultimately will determine the winner of this trade.

Koch, a 27-year-old righthander, did everything Oakland could have asked after it acquired him from Toronto last offseason to replace free-agent defector Jason Isringhausen. The American League reliever of the year, Koch led the majors with 11 relief wins and finished second in the AL with 44 saves. He also shouldered a heavy workload, topping the AL in appearances (84) and relief innings (94), while fashioning a 3.27 ERA and 93-46 strikeout-walk ratio. Koch is all about power, relying on a four-seam fastball in the mid-90s, a sinking two-seamer and a slider. But for all his pure stuff, he never has averaged a strikeout per inning and hitters have batted .242 against him. His occasional control lapses can get him into jams, as happened in the decisive game of the AL Division Series against the Twins. In four major league seasons, Koch has gone 22-17, 3.48 with 144 saves in 167 opportunities. In 305 innings, he has 265 strikeouts. He made $2.35 million in salary and $150,000 in incentives in 2002, and he could double that amount in arbitration this offseason.

Foulke, a 30-year-old righty, proved to be the best player the White Sox received in their infamous 1997 White Flag trade with the Giants. He became one of the AL's top setup men in 1998-99, then one of the league's best closers after ascending to that role in 2000. For some reason, Chicago put him on a short leash this season after he totaled 76 saves in 2000-01. Foulke converted his first save opportunity of 2002, gave up four runs to the Mariners in blowing his second, then reeled off five in a row over a span of nine consecutive scoreless appearances. He had a bit of a tired arm in May, gave up five runs against the Yankees on May 29—and got exactly four more save opportunities the rest of the year as the White Sox turned to Damaso Marte and Antonio Osuna. Foulke didn't allow an earned run in his final 12 games and allowed just one in his last 24 appearances, finishing 2-4, 2.90 with 11 saves and a 58-13 strikeout-walk ratio in 78 innings. He doesn't throw nearly as hard as Koch, topping out around 90 mph, but he has one of the best changeups in baseball. Batters know the change is his out pitch, yet it keeps them off balance. He has a 19-24, 3.36 record in six seasons, including 100 saves in 119 chances, a .220 opponents average and 458 strikeouts in 491 innings. Foulke will make $6 million next season and become a free agent afterward.

Valentine, 22, was a 26th-round pick out of Jefferson Davis (Ala.) JC in 1999. The White Sox lost him to the Tigers in the 2001 major league Rule 5 draft, but he was so erratic in spring training that Detroit returned him for half the $50,000 purchase price. He went on to lead the minors with 36 saves, tying the Double-A Southern League record. He helped Birmingham win the league championship, going 3-1, 1.97 in 55 games while striking out 63 in 59 innings and holding opponents to a .173 average. Valentine dares hitters to beat him with a fastball that reaches 96 mph and a slider that's untouchable when it's on. His command can be inconsistent but he's not far from being ready from the majors. Most minor league closers don't become big league closers, but Valentine's stuff gives him the chance to be an exception.

Cotts, 22, was a 2001 second-round pick from Illinois State, the highest selection in school history. He spent his first full pro season at high Class A Modesto and fared well, going 12-6, 4.12 in 28 starts. He limited opponents to a .239 average and five homers in a hitter-friendly league, and struck out 178 in 138 innings. He's like Foulke in that he's not as overpowering as his numbers suggest. Cotts' out pitch is also his changeup, and his fastball rarely breaks 90 mph. He's working on improving his curveball, as a third pitch will be critical if he's to remain a starter, and he needs better control after issuing 87 walks this year.

Johnson, 27, was a 1994 first-round pick but never has hit as much the White Sox hoped. Though he has a keen batting eye and twice drew 100 walks in a minor league season, he has hit .222-16-76 in 302 major league games, including a .209-4-18 mark in 86 games this season. He doesn't show much power and makes infrequent contact. Johnson is athletic for a catcher and has a decent arm, throwing out a team-high 28 percent of basestealers in 2002. Miguel Olivo has emerged as Chicago's catcher of the future and likely its present, making Johnson expendable. He'll back up Ramon Hernandez in Oakland.

Dec. 13 update: Baseball America has learned that the other player the White Sox will receive is outfielder Daylan Holt. Holt, 24, was a third-round pick out of Texas A&M in 2000. He led NCAA Division I with 34 homers in 1999 before a junior slump cost him a chance to go in the first round. After hitting .179 at high Class A Modesto in 2001, he spent the offseason working on his conditioning and mental approach. That paid off, as he hit .286-20-88 between high Class A Visalia and Double-A Midland this year. Holt has a chance to evolve into a power-hitting right fielder, though his strike-zone judgment (125 strikeouts, 44 walks) didn't fit the Oakland prototype.

Dec. 16 update: Cotts and Holt were confirmed as the players to be named.