Prospect Pulse: Breakout Players

By John Manuel
September 8, 2005

Here are five players who weren’t among their organization’s Top 10 prospects entering the year but have a chance to be after breaking through in 2005:

Josh Burrus, of, Braves: Perhaps a breakout list is the wrong place for a first-round pick, which Burrus was in 2001. But after struggling so much early in his career—he spent parts of three seasons in Rookie ball—Burrus has begun to put skills together with the tools that prompted the Braves to draft the premium athlete so highly in the first place.

Already using his fast feet with aplomb—he stole 36 bases this season in 47 tries—Burrus finally has begun to trust his fast hands at the plate. He started waiting back on breaking balls and letting them go by this season, rather than futilely waving at them as he had in the past. The result wasn’t a windfall of walks, but his 52 bases on balls were a career high.

His greater patience helped Burrus’ power come through—he slugged .462 for high Class A Myrtle Beach, a noted pitchers’ paradise, and finished with 28 doubles and 16 home runs through three stops. He concluded the season in Triple-A Richmond after Double-A Mississippi had its final eight games wiped out by Hurricane Katrina.

Burrus, 21, will be a difficult decision for the Braves with their 40-man roster in the offseason but figures to be protected after his breakthrough.

Chris Carter, 1b/of, Diamondbacks: If Arizona were an American League franchise, Carter might already be in the major leagues.

He also didn’t figure to be on a list of breakthrough players, because four years ago, Carter was the top-rated hitter in the high school class of 2001, a lefthanded bat with the most power in the prep class. Carter, however, had a firm commitment to Stanford and wasn’t drafted.

His college career never went as he hoped. While the Cardinal went to Omaha in two of his three seasons, Carter never made a impact there after injuring his right shoulder as a freshman. He played through the torn labrum, was limited to DH as a freshman and missed the first half of his sophomore season recovering from surgery. Carter hit just .280 with 24 career homers in 343 at-bats for the Cardinal, and rarely played the field.

The Diamondbacks were able to wait until the 17th round to draft him, and he proved an easy sign. Since then, Carter has joined recent Cardinal alums such as Ryan Garko (Indians) and Carlos Quentin (Diamondbacks) in raking his way through the minor leagues.

Carter, who has played first base and left field when not a DH this season, still isn’t a great fielder, as he’s stiff and is a below-average thrower. One American League scout quipped, “I’m not sure he owns a glove other than a batting glove.”

But Carter’s bat will play. His powerful lefthanded swing held up well after a promotion from hitter’s haven The Hanger at high Class A Lancaster. He had disappointing home-road splits in the Cal League—.388 with 14 homers at home, .226 with seven homers on the road. But with Double-A Tennessee, Carter was steady in both situations, hitting .310 away, .286 at home while splitting his 10 homers evenly.

Overall, Carter hit .296-31-115 in 540 at-bats with 30 doubles and an excellent 65-77 walk-strikeout ratio. He also hung in against lefthanders (.295 average), though 27 of his homers came against righthanders.

Matt Kemp, of, Dodgers: Scouting director Logan White loved Kemp’s raw athleticism when he was drafted in the sixth round in 2003. At the time, Kemp was more advanced as a basketball player.

The Oklahoma native is starting to get the handle on this baseball thing, though. He batted .288-17-66 last season at low Class A Columbus and got his feet wet with 11 games in the high Class A Florida State League. Returning to the FSL in 2005, he set a Vero Beach franchise record with 27 homers while batting .306, stealing 23 bases in 29 tries and spending the majority of the season playing center field.

Kemp remains raw. He only marginally improved his walk-strikeout ratio (28-112 last season, 25-92 in 2005), and players have to have above-average hand-eye coordination (read: Jeff Francoeur) to overcome that kind of reckless abandon at the plate at higher levels.

The 6-foot-4, 210-pounder also feasted at home (.361-22-58 home, .246-5-32 road), but scouts believe his plus tools will play in any stadium. FSL managers agree on Kemp, who played the entire season at age 20.

“He’s a five-tool player,” Brevard County skipper John Tamargo said. “He can throw, run, steal a base, hit for average, hit for power, he’s a good center fielder. He’s got it all.”

Tony Sipp, lhp, Indians: A Prospect Pulse note last year criticized the Tribe for giving Sipp, a 45th-round pick out of Clemson, a six-figure bonus off his modest performance in the Cape Cod League.

What’s the statute of limitations on apologies? Consider this one to Cleveland scouting director John Mirabelli, whose department knew what it was doing in landing the power-armed Sipp.

He was dominant in his pro debut last year, striking out six in three hitless innings, and had 74 strikeouts overall in 44 innings. While Sipp is still gaining a feel for pitching—a defensive back in high school, he was also a two-way player in junior college and at Clemson—he has big-time stuff. His fastball sits in the low-90s thanks to his quick arm, and he’s athletic enough to repeat his delivery consistently. Sipp has also improved his slider and made strides with his developing changeup.

Sipp moved to the bullpen later in the year at high Class A Kinston to keep his workload under control and thrived in the role, posting a 1.65 ERA and striking out 33 over 27 relief innings. He was 2-2, 2.66 in 47 innings for Kinston with 59 strikeouts and 23 walks. Prior to his promotion, Sipp went 4-1, 2.22 with a 71-19 strikeout-walk ratio in 69 innings at low Class A Lake County.

His overall 2.40 ERA ranked ninth in the minor leagues, while his 10.06 strikeouts per nine innings ranked 12th among pitchers with at least 15 starts.

“He’s come along very quickly,” Indians farm director John Farrell said. “He could possibly move to the next two levels next season, so that tells you what we think of him.”

Jordan Tata, rhp, Tigers: High Class A Lakeland had the FSL’s best team thanks mostly to its pitching. The 85-48 Tigers posted a 3.37 ERA, second in the league, and had several pitchers to thank for that, chief among them minor league ERA leader Justin Verlander (1.67 in 86 innings at Lakeland).

But don’t dismiss Tata, 23, whom the organization once projected as a reliever. A 16th-round pick as a senior out of Sam Houston State in 2003, Tata’s stuff has improved since he got to the Tigers. He immediately impressed them after signing by consistently throwing 93 mph with his fastball, and he uses his 6-foot-6 frame to stay tall in his delivery and keep his fastball on a good downward plane to the plate.

In other words, Tata throws a heavy ball, helping him post some heady numbers—13-2, 2.79 in 155 innings at Lakeland with 134 strikeouts and just 41 walks. When he leaves his pitches up, Tata can be hurt by the home run, giving up 12. His curveball and changeup, however, have developed nicely—he held lefthanded hitters to a .247 average and .359 slugging percentage. He has what it takes to develop into an innings-eating middle-of-the-rotation starter, or at least settle in as a power sinkerballer out of the bullpen.

QUICK HITS

• On the topic of home-road splits, high Class A High Desert usually produces some unusual ones. Its high altitude and gusting winds make Mavericks Stadium a wonderful place for hitters, and Royals 2003 first-round pick Chris Lubanski took advantage of it. Lubanski batted .359 with 19 homers at home and slugged .695 in 262 at-bats. On the road, the 20-year-old hit just .245 with nine homers and slugged .416. Overall, he hit .301-28-116 with 38 doubles, overcoming a 43-for-201 (.214) start to the season to finish tied for second in the minors in RBIs and to rank fourth in extra-base hits (72) and total bases (294).

• Angels righthander Nick Adenhart would look good in North Carolina’s power-arm rotation with top 2006 draft prospects Andrew Miller and Daniel Bard, but the former Maryland high school star instead signed with the Angels as a 14th-round pick after having elbow surgery last spring. Recovered from the Tommy John procedure, Adenhart finished his first pro season with a flourish, striking out 17 and walking just two over his final two starts without giving up an earned run. Adenhart pitched six innings to get a victory for Rookie-level Ogden in the Pioneer League in his final regular season start after a promotion from the Rookie-level Arizona League. Overall, he fanned 59 while walking 24 in 50 innings, and was throwing free and easy with a 90-94 mph fastball.

• Plenty of prospects were on the rosters for the 16 teams in the 36th World Cup in the Netherlands. Taiwan’s middle infield was Yung-Chi Chen (Mariners) and Chin-Lung Hu (Dodgers). Righthander Shane Lindsay (Rockies) was pitching for Australia, and first baseman Joey Votto (Reds) had four home runs in Canada’s first three games. Lefty Alexander Smit (Twins) was among the minor leaguers playing for the host Dutch.

Contributing: J.J. Cooper, Kevin Goldstein, Allan Simpson.