Late-Blooming Chacin Worth The Wait

Prospect Pulse By John Manuel
August 23, 2004

Usually, a player in his fifth year of Double-A doesn't register as a prospect.

Now that Blue Jays lefthander Gustavo Chacin finally has graduated to Triple-A Syracuse, perhaps it's time to rethink his prospect status.

Chacin makes his first Triple-A start tonight at home against Rochester, having earned his promotion with a 34-innings scoreless streak at Double-A New Hampshire. Chacin hasn't given up a run since July 25, he won his last six starts and last 11 decisions dating back to June 5, and he was 15-2, 2.96 for the season.

But does that performance make him a prospect? Lots of pitchers post gaudy win-loss numbers in the minors without ever making a ripple in the major leagues. And Chacin doesn't blow hitters away, with just 103 strikeouts and 46 walks in 136 2/3 innings. Additionally, Chacin has given up 15 home runs on the year.

Working in Chacin's favor, though, are his age and his stinginess against righthanded hitters, thanks to improved stuff and consistency. Chacin turns 24 in December, and he first reached Double-A at age 19 with two starts for Tennessee in 2000. So while he seems like a Double-A lifer, Chacin isn't past his prime.

Besides his scoreless streak, his most impressive numbers come in the hits department. Chacin has allowed 108 on the year and just 75 in 106 1/3 innings against righthanded hitters. They've hit just .195 against him, though when they do connect, it's with power (.349 slugging).

Chacin always has been a fastball-changeup lefthander with a fringy curveball at best. The curve remains a below-average pitch for him, indicated by the success lefthanded hitters (.270, .484 slugging) have against him. However, he's added a cut fastball this season that has helped him turn the corner in his career.

"The cut fastball is the pitch of this decade," said a scout with an American League club. "If you scout the majors, a lot of guys are throwing that pitch a lot. Watch Al Leiter--it's all cutters. That's how (Expos righthander) T.J. Tucker stays in the majors--he throws nothing but cutters. It's a very trendy pitch."

And Chacin needed to buck his own trend. He had dropped out of being a regular starter the last two years and was being used more in relief. Additionally, he'd given up more hits (591) than he had innings pitched (563) coming into the year, with a .270 opponents average. The cutter has made him a different pitcher, one who profiles as a third or fourth starter in the big leagues, according to the scout.

"He's throwing the cutter in the 84-87 (mph) range--pretty firm--and he's changing speeds on it and getting some tilt on it," New Hampshire pitching coach Rick Adair said. "Really, that's the difference with him in his stuff. He's commanding his fastball and changeup better, and he's come up with a cutter that's a putaway pitch. He struggled early against lefthanded hitters, but he's starting to learn to attack them with the cutter, really get some tilt on it and do some damage.

"The curve is still a fringe pitch for him, but it's a fourth pitch now, not a third pitch. And he's matured. He's still intense but he's more even-keeled."

The additional maturity has helped Chacin off the field; his grasp of English has improved, and he's become more integrated with the rest of the clubhouse. Chacin has matured physically as well--he's probably 10-15 pounds heavier than his listed 190 pounds and is 6 feet tall--and the velocity on his two-seam fastball has improved. It's an average pitch in terms of velocity in the 87-92 mph range, sitting at 89-90, according to Adair. That in turn has made his changeup that much more effective.

"He's had a super year in Double-A, and where he'd been inconsistent in the past, he's putting it all together now," Blue Jays farm director Dick Scott said. "He's shown a good feel for the cutter, and he's been locating his pitches better. He's also learning how to get outs when he doesn't have his A-game."

During his 34-innings scoreless streak, Chacin brought his A-game. And that finally got him out of Double-A.

No Longer "Not A Prospect"

The Blue Jays have another player emerging after several years of underwhelming returns. The organization invested $240,000 in 2000--then-scouting director Tim Wilken's last draft--in fourth-round pick Raul Tablado, keeping the Miami native from Southridge High from joining the Miami Hurricanes program.

Tablado has done some growing since then--the 22-year-old has added 30 pounds since signing and now stands a strong 6-foot-2, 205 pounds. And with the added strength and the experience of 1,355 pro at-bats coming into the year, Tablado has emerged as one of the minors' most surprising hitters.

Tablado had hit 25 homers in his pro career and had .229/.304/.350 numbers. In 2004, despite missing a month in the first half with a pulled quadriceps muscle, Tablado has a .620 slugging percentage that leads the Florida State League, and he's hitting .320-21-74 overall with a .366 on-base percentage.

"I saw him last year and buried him--he was an NP for me," said a scout with a National League organization, who turned Tabaldo in as an NP as in Not a Prospect. "This year, he's a guy, though he's not a shortstop. Inside fastballs used to give him problems, but he's staying back on balls and just hammering mistakes."

That's been especially true in August, as Tablado has hit .390 and slugged .814 in the month; 15 of his 23 hits have gone for extra bases. Tablado said a key reason for his breakout season has been greater plate discipline, even though his walk-strikeout rate (23-78) remains below what the Blue Jays would like to see.

"I think the difference with me this year as opposed to the previous years is my confidence," Tablado said. "I believe my swing is really consistent and I don't even worry about my mechanics. All I do is go up to the plate and try to swing at strikes.

"Also, definitely being stronger and having more experience and confidence has helped me become a better hitter."

Finding a position will help complete the package. Tablado has played mostly shortstop this season, and of course he prefers to stay at the glamour position. However, scouts who have seen him think his tools play better at third base, though Tablado also could move to second and be an offensive player at the position.

"I think it's just a matter of him growing up and getting more at-bats," Scott said. "He's getting that look in his eye, that confidence. He's had a tremendous year."

Both Chacin and Tablado are holdovers from the previous Blue Jays regime, and as a Venezuelan and high school draftee, it's unlikely either would have been signed by the organization under its current leadership. When J.P. Ricciardi became the general manager, he took the organization 180 degrees from its Pat Gillick roots, emphasizing performance-based scouting and trying to minimize risk. High school players are considered too risky an investment for the most part, and Latin American players require too much development time.

Perhaps Chacin and Tablado will change that.

STRONG BEATS

• The Mets have moved two of their top remaining prospects, outfielder Lastings Milledge and righthander Matt Lindstrom, back to low Class A Capital City to help the Bombers make a playoff push. It's business as usual for the Mets, who demote players more than any organization in an attempt to win in the minor league playoffs--especially at short-season Brooklyn.

Milledge hit .235/.319/.432 in 81 at-bats in a brief callup with high Class A St. Lucie, and his nine walks in 22 games matched his total in 52 games with the Bombers, where he has hit .322/.373/.593 with 12 homers and 44 RBIs.

"He has tremendous bat speed and is a real good athlete," said an area scout with an AL club. "(The Mets) depleted their system and traded a lot of their top guys--I mean, I thought Kazmir had big league stuff last year--so Milledge is probably their top guy."

• Lefthander Tom Gorzelanny, profiled recently in Daily Dish, is settling in at high Class A Lynchburg after a rough start. He's won his last three starts and has given up just four runs in 18 innings over that span, striking out 18 and walking just three. "He topped out at 94 mph for me," said one AL scout, "and he's got a solid mound presence. His breaking ball was a power slurve; it's a future plus pitch. He also showed a solid feel and command for his changeup. He was one of the best pitchers I've seen all year."

• Recently sent back down to the minors from Oakland, righthander Jairo Garcia nevertheless impressed a scout who saw him in the big leagues, earning a comparison to Eric Gagne for his over-the-top delivery and varied repertoire.

"He was really impressive," the scout said. "He looked like (Octavio) Dotel physically, but his delivery is more over the top and it's a little bit of a long delivery, so in a funny way, his stuff reminded me of Gagne. He's fastball-curveball-changeup like Gagne; it's not quite Gagne, of course, but it makes you appreciate how good and how special Gagne is.

"He was 93-94 consistently, and he gets on top of his curveball. His change is a good change, but it's not Gagne. I found myself putting a lot of 5's and 6's (on a 2-to-8 scale) for him."

• As if he hadn't proved it already, righthander Steven Shell is showing signs that he's had enough of the California League. Shell, who started in the league's all-star game last year, has won his last three starts, giving up just five runs (four earned) in 21 innings over that span with 27 strikeouts and just two walks. Shell, who has added a split-finger fastball recently to go with his 90-94 mph fastball and curveball, leads the Cal League with 174 strikeouts (his next-closest competitor is Inland Empire's Bobby Livingston, with 132).

• Thanks to the miracle of the Internet and the ingenuity of a BA reader, we can report that while Taiwan failed to reach the medal round, righthander Chin-Hui Tsao appears to have shown he was healthy in Athens. Pitching in relief for Taiwan, Tsao touched 99 mph on the radar gun in use by Japanese TV when he struck out Japan's top hitter, Norihiro Nakamura, during the two teams' matchup in the round robin.