Projecting Power

Prospect Pulse By John Manuel
July 19, 2004

Joe Mauer had all the accolades coming through the minor leagues, capped by earning the 2003 Minor League Player of the Year award.

The only thing he didn't do, it seemed, was hit for power. He hit nine home runs in 1,030 minor league at-bats, including five in 2003 between high Class A Fort Myers and Double-A New Britain.

Not to worry, Twins officials said; they still considered him capable of hitting 35-40 home runs and expected him to add loft to his swing as he matured.

So far, Mauer has proved the Twins right. Even though a knee injury has limited his playing time in Minnesota, the 21-year-old rookie catcher had hit a career-high six homers already in just 107 at-bats, and his .570 slugging percentage dwarfed his minor league .423 career slugging.

The reason, a consensus of scouts insist, is that hitting for power in the major leagues has more to do with the hit tool than with the raw power tool. Clubs continue to hand out large signing bonuses to amateurs who show off 450-foot bombs in batting practice, even as they realize that making consistent, hard contact is a greater indicator of future power hitting.

"Power comes from good swings," a scout with an American League organization said. "It's knowing what pitch you can drive and which one you can't, which comes from experience.

"Raw power is easier to sell. You can watch how far a home run travels; it's trackable. It's measurable. Everything else we do as scouts with regard to position players is projection. That's why pitching gets over-drafted; because everything can be measured on a radar gun."

Once players become professionals, power can be measured with home runs. One of the minors' best power prospects might be Cubs first baseman Brian Dopirak, who is part of a logjam of players the organization has at the position.

Dopirak, 20, was heavily scouted as an amateur and was the 56th overall pick in the 2002 draft out of Dunedin, Fla., High. Even then, he had a reputation as a free-swinger with 50-home run potential. He's shown to be that kind of player this year at low Class A Lansing, where he was hitting .309-26-74. His average has fallen a bit with a 2-for-19 slump that followed a 27-game hitting streak. During the streak, the longest in the minors this season, he hit .393-7-27.

"He's got a short swing for a big guy," Cubs farm director Oneri Fleita said. "He really has some power, but he's cutting down his strikeouts and starting to get his walks. He's getting pitched around, and he's learning to be patient about it."

Dopirak's 32-76 walk-strikeout ratio is a sign of progress; in 92 previous games as a professional, he had a 32-103 ratio. He will have to continue his progression to stay ahead of a deluge of Cubs players at the position, which includes his now-injured Lansing teammate, Kevin Collins. The 23-year-old separated his shoulder during a collision with the outfield fence; he had to move to left field to make room for Dopirak and to get his power bat (.298-21-54 in 255 at-bats) in the lineup.

The emerging prospect in the group is high Class A Daytona's Brandon Sing, 23, whose improved patience has led directly to greater power production. Sing, at 6-foot-5, 210 pounds, has excellent size and leverage in his swing, and he's spent parts of the last two seasons at Daytona, so he needs to prove he can get it done at a higher level.

But his progress at Daytona still has Fleita excited. He was hitting .272-27-78 (establishing a new Daytona home run record) with a 69-77 walk-strikeout ratio. Coming into 2004, Sing's career high in home runs was 18 for Daytona in 2002.

"He really worked hard on his body in the offseason," Fleita said. "He had mono, and it really nailed him last year, which is why he's back at Daytona. He had a good offseason, getting his strength back, and he has done all that we have asked. He's improved in many areas."

Less Likely Candidates

Still, scouts aren't sure if home runs are the best way to determine power, and those who study statistics aren't sure they are, either. The better indicators are walk-strikeout ratio--which lets on whether or not a player knows which pitches he can drive--and slugging percentage, which takes not only home runs but doubles into account. Essentially, slugging percentage indicates how often a hitter has the good swings the AL scout was talking about.

Take Miguel Cabrera, who already has hit 20 homers this season, just two shy of his career high for a year (22 combined last year between the Marlins and Double-A Carolina). In 2001, at age 18 in the Midwest League, Cabrera hit just nine homers, but he added 43 doubles for a .421 slugging percentage. When he controlled the strike zone more at Carolina--a 31-49 BB-K ratio in 266 at-bats--his power surged, to 29 doubles, 10 homers and a .609 slugging percentage. In his second big league season, his walks are up (25 last year in 314 at-bats, 38 in 340 at-bats this year), and so is his power (.535 slugging, 20 HR, .468 slugging, 12 HR last year).

That doesn't mean, however, that all players with good swings will develop home run power down the road. The classic case here is Padres third baseman Sean Burroughs, who was likened to George Brett as he rose through the minor leagues. Burroughs' minor league combination of a high average (.324), great plate discipline (193 walks, 177 strikeouts) and extra-base power (106 doubles in 390 games) were supposed to augur a future full of major league home runs.

It just hasn't happened. Burroughs barely slugged better than .400 in his first full big league season last year (.402), and Petco Park's spacious dimensions have affected him even more. He's slugging just .339 this season with 15 extra-base hits (one home run) in 339 at-bats, and Padres officials concede they no longer expect him to hit for home run power in the major leagues.

"It's just not in his swing," one said during the all-star weekend in Houston. "He's a gap-to-gap guy, and that's all he's going to be."

Looking for current examples of players whose power could emerge down the road? Try these three:

• Gaby Martinez, Devil Rays. Drafted in the 27th round in 2001 out of Puerto Rico, Martinez was using a smooth lefthanded swing and good athletic ability to hit .310-2-40 at high Class A Bakersfield. Martinez, who turned 21 in May, has started games at first base, third base and all three outfield positions, and has hit 31 doubles.

He's expected to turn some of those doubles into homers just by maturing physically, growing stronger as his 6-foot-2, 160-pound frame fills out. Plate discipline also will determine whether or not Martinez' power fulfills its potential; his 18-68 walk-strikeout ratio could stand improvement.

• Ron Davenport, Blue Jays. It's his third season in the Florida State League, but Davenport has always had the sweet swing to produce power, and he's finally putting his experience to use during a healthy season. Davenport entered the season with 15 home runs in four seasons (1,212 at-bats) and already had 12 this season at Dunedin, along with 28 doubles. He was hitting .279-12-69 overall. His .512 slugging percentage ranks fourth in the league and dwarfs his career .396 number. Further, Davenport has 31 walks, one shy of his career high for a season.

"The ball sounds different off his bat; it sounds really solid," Dunedin manager Omar Malave said. "I'm really glad that I have him on my team, because no matter how hard the pitcher is throwing, he can hit it. I had heard he was just a dead-pull guy, but he goes the other way and has used the whole field all year."

Malave also said Davenport had an average arm and was athletic enough for right field, though he's also taken well to spot duty at first base.

• Nate Schierholtz, Giants. While this is a more obvious pick because of the home runs he hit in the South Atlantic League, Schierholtz remains somewhat of an unknown commodity. A surprise third-round pick last year of the Giants, Schierholtz may have emerged as the organization's top prospect. He hit .298-15-54 at low Class A Hagerstown, and his 22 doubles helped give him a .583 slugging percentage before his promotion to high Class A San Jose. In the California League, Schierholtz had yet to homer but had improved his walk-strikeout ratio (19-52 at Hagerstown, 8-19 at San Jose). He was hitting .264-0-13 with a .409 slugging percentage for San Jose.

"He's a gap-to-gap guy right now," said one scout who saw Schierholtz in the South Atlantic League, "but he's got a good swing. It's not eye-popping power right now, but it could be."

STRONG BEATS

• Speaking of the Sally League, the same scout was impressed by an emerging power arm on Class A Lakewood's staff. Righthander Scott Mathieson is just 5-6, 4.38, but the Canadian has shown improvement on his fastball velocity, reaching 96 mph several times in a recent start and sitting in the 91-94 range. "He's just coming into that kind of velocity, and he doesn't have control of it yet," the scout said. "But he showed a decent changeup, and he'd throw one good slider and five bad ones."

• The Indians signed lefthander Tony Sipp out of Clemson and have assigned him to short-season Mahoning Valley. Sipp, a 45th-round pick, received a $130,000 signing bonus, more in line with a sixth-round bonus, after improving pitching well in the Cape Cod League. Sipp, a two-way player at Clemson, pitched 18 innings in the Cape, giving up two earned runs while walking six and striking out 21. Sipp was outstanding in his pro debut July 13, striking out six over three scorless innings, allowing just one hit.

• Righthander Justin Germano had an 80-pitch complete-game shutout for Triple-A Portland, facing two batters over the minimum against Las Vegas. Joey Thurston had both hits for the 51s as Germano struck out seven without a walk. Germano had a simple explanation for his outing. "I've been a mental case out there thinking too much, which led to pitching bad games, he said after lowering his ERA from 5.66 to 4.76. "With the all-star break, having those few days to go home and relax and not think about baseball helped clear my mind and just go out there and throw. That's how I've thrown in the past, starting off the season, but was just thinking too much the last few."

• Brewers lefthander Manny Parra had one of his best starts since returning from shoulder weakness that caused him to miss the season's first month. Parra pitched eight shutout innings in a 3-1 win at Bakersfield, as the Mavericks rallied for three runs in the ninth off Blaze reliever Chad Orvella. Parra's outing improved him to 5-2, 3.48. "We're pretty pleased with what he's doing in that league," Brewers assistant farm director Scott Martens said. "He made a few minor adjustments in his delivery after he had a bad start, and he was very sharp in the start you're talking about. His stuff is right back to where it was last year." Parra throws a 90-93 mph fastball (though he can take something off it to sink or cut the pitch), a good curveball and solid changeup.

• Orioles lefthander Adam Loewen went on the disabled list in late May and has been brought back slowly since returning in June. He's worked as many as five innings only once since then and is just 2-3, 4.27 overall. He attributes his injury problem to a long bus trip, according to an interview he gave to the Washington Post: "Really, I believe it was due to a nine-hour bus ride," the 6-foot-6, 230-pound Canadian said. "I had a lot of trouble getting to sleep and by the time I did, I was in a strange position. You know, I can not fit into buses to save my life, so I never really get much sleep on them. It's a form of torture."