Mauer, Prior Rekindle 1 vs. 2 Debate

by Jim Callis
September 12, 2003

CHICAGO—The Twins couldn’t be more delighted by the progress Joe Mauer has made since they drafted him No. 1 overall in 2001 and diverted him from playing quarterback at Florida State.

Baseball America’s 2003 Minor League Player of the Year is on his way to becoming Ivan Rodriguez, with A-plus makeup to boot. Next spring, Mauer likely will sit atop our annual Top 100 Prospects list and make a strong bid to unseat A.J. Pierzynski as Minnesota’s catcher.

It’s a classic case of hometown boy makes good. But while the Twins spotted him first, they didn’t decide to choose Mauer until the day of the 2001 draft.

Owner Carl Pohlad always keeps at least one eye on the bottom line, and Minnesota was wary of what the No. 1 choice would cost them. The Twins contacted Mauer, Mark Prior, Mark Teixeira and Dewon Brazelton in hopes of cutting a predraft deal. When they couldn’t, they went with the player in the first slot on their draft board.

As good as Mauer has been and should become, Prior has been better. He’s already one of the best starting pitchers in baseball and could have made the difference for Minnesota in the American League Central race this year. He also would have cost twice as much as Mauer, and Pohlad isn’t known for approving eight-figure contracts for amateurs.

Maybe Mauer will face Prior one day with the World Series on the line. At the very least, they’ll be linked in one of the classic No. 1 vs. No. 2 debates in draft history.

Chilcott Vs. Reggie

The first such quandary faced the Mets in 1966. In baseball’s first draft the previous year, the Kansas City Athletics snatched Rick Monday, the consensus top prospect out of Arizona State, leaving New York with Les Rohr. This time the Mets had the first crack at a powerful Sun Devils outfielder: Reggie Jackson.

But New York also needed a catcher. So the Mets took Steve Chilcott, like Mauer a high school quarterback highly sought after by college football programs. Injuries ruined Chilcott’s career, and he was the only No. 1 pick from the first 26 June drafts to fall short of the majors. The A’s hit the Arizona State lottery again by snagging Jackson with the second choice.

The disparity between Chilcott and Jackson was unusual, as teams usually have been fine even when guessing wrong between two candidates. In 1969, the Washington Senators had to decide between Jeff Burroughs and J.R. Richard. Both Burroughs (the 1974 AL MVP) and Richard (consecutive 300-strikeout seasons) became superstars, but neither could maintain his peak performance for long.

Most clubs figured the White Sox would make Bill Gullickson the top pick in 1977. He threw in the mid-90s, and as a bonus was a product of suburban Chicago. But maverick Sox owner Bill Veeck was interested in another local kid—”local” meaning from Veeck’s former home on Maryland’s Eastern Shore.

Veeck had scouted Harold Baines since his Little League days and loved his natural hitting ability. Baines’ willingness to accept a $40,000 bonus (50 percent less than any No. 1 choice ever received) also sealed the decision, which he justified by becoming one of the top hitters and most beloved players in franchise history. Gullickson struck out 18 in a game as a rookie in 1980, but was diagnosed with diabetes shortly afterward and never was that overpowering again.

Mariners manager Lou Piniella coveted a big league-ready arm with the first pick in 1993, and Darren Dreifort did start his pro career in the majors. But his career has been most notable for two Tommy John surgeries and a bloated $55 million contract, while Seattle never regretted opting for a high school player from Miami: Alex Rodriguez.

Three of the last five drafts have featured difficult decisions between No. 1 and No. 2, and as with Mauer vs. Prior, they need time to play themselves out. In 1999, the Devil Rays opted for Josh Hamilton over Josh Beckett. Hamilton missed all of this season while confronting off-field issues, while minor physical ailments have kept Beckett from becoming dominant.

This June, Tampa Bay deliberated even longer over Delmon Young and Rickie Weeks. They opted for the most dangerous high school hitter (Young) over the most fearsome college hitter (Weeks). Each player received a major league contract, though Weeks signed more than a month sooner than Young.

Signability Rears Its Head

Not every No. 1 decision has been resolved with the runner-up going second. “Signability” entered the baseball lexicon in 1978, when Kirk Gibson was a record-setting Michigan State wide receiver destined to become an NFL first-rounder. He played college baseball for the first time as a junior that spring, mainly to increase his bargaining power for football.

He immediately became the best prospect in the nation, with a power/speed combination that had the Braves aching to take him with the first choice. Gibson told them that he liked baseball but loved football, and they decided he was too much of a risk. Atlanta instead took Bob Horner, the NCAA’s all-time home run champ, and he immediately won the National League rookie of the year award.

Horner had a fine career, though it was diminished by injuries, weight problems and collusion. His $175,000 bonus set a new draft record—until it was exceeded by Gibson, who got $200,000 from the Tigers as the 12th choice after telling them he’d sign with his hometown team. Gibson also would eclipse Horner on the diamond, leading Detroit and Los Angeles to World Series championships.

Just as they did with Chilcott, the Mets whiffed badly in 1984. They initially targeted Mark McGwire with the No. 1 selection, but opted for Shawn Abner instead. Whoops.

New York officials said the family seemed ambivalent about signing, while McGwire’s camp said the club pressured him to do a predraft deal. Eight other teams followed their lead before the A’s stole him at 10th overall.

George Argyros’ 1981-89 reign as Mariners owner was a comedy of errors, and he almost made one of his biggest mistakes with the first pick in the 1987 draft. He saw Mike Harkey as a quick fix for a franchise still looking for its first winning season. Scouting director Roger Jongewaard, the same man who steered Seattle to Rodriguez in 1993, persuaded Argyros that a high schooler named Ken Griffey Jr. would make a better choice.

The next year, the Padres focused on Andy Benes and Gregg Olson, and Benes settled matters when he shut out powerful Arizona State 1-0 in the NCAA regional playoffs. There wasn’t much to separate them when they entered pro ball or when they left, as they had comparable careers.

The Braves faced another Gibson situation in 1990, when they and everyone else coveted the powerful right arm of Todd Van Poppel. But Van Poppel claimed to be dead set on attending Texas and possibly pitching in the 1992 Olympics. Atlanta reportedly offered him a record $900,000 deal before the draft but couldn’t get a firm commitment that he’d sign.

Playing it safe, the Braves went for Larry Jones. Better known as Chipper, he signed for $275,000 and has dwarfed Van Poppel in the big leagues. Van Poppel slid to the 14th pick and set a new draft standard with a $1.2 million major league contract, a deal that prompted rushing him to the majors and undermined his career.

Will Mauer outperform Prior? That’s a tall order, based on the early returns. But he also won’t make the Twins regret their pick—or remember Steve Chilcott.

You can contact Jim Callis by sending e-mail to jimcallis@baseballamerica.com.