National League Preview

By Jim Callis
March 22, 2007

This should be the year that the Phillies finally get to the playoffs, the Brewers' youngster turn into winners and the Dodgers take another step forward.

1	PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES

QUICK TAKE: After near misses the last four years, the Phillies break through the playoff barrier and advance all the way to the World Series.

IN THE SPOTLIGHT: RHP Brett Myers. With Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley and Co., the offense is in capable hands. To play in October, Philadelphia needs Myers to pitch like the frontline starter he can become. Same goes for Cole Hamels.

2	NEW YORK METS

QUICK TAKE: It’s hard not to like the lineup, and equally hard not to worry about the pitching. But the Mets should be able to slug their way to the wild card.

IN THE SPOTLIGHT: RHP Mike Pelfrey. With Pedro Martinez out for at least half the season, New York is building its rotation around a pair of 41-year-olds (Tom Glavine, Orlando Hernandez) and a bunch of question marks (John Maine, Oliver Perez, Chan Ho Park). The Mets gave Pelfrey a $5.25 million big league deal as a 2005 first-round pick because he could make a quick impact, and they need that impact now.

3	ATLANTA BRAVES

QUICK TAKE: The Braves’ streak of 14 straight playoff berths ended in 2006. While Atlanta won’t finish with a losing record again, it won’t make it back to the postseason.

IN THE SPOTLIGHT: 1B Scott Thorman. Atlanta shored up its bullpen by trading Adam LaRoche to the Pirates for Mike Gonzalez in January. LaRoche hit 32 homers last year, and the Braves think they can get similar production from Thorman.

4	FLORIDA MARLINS

QUICK TAKE: While the Marlins have an admirable collection of young talent, they won’t play over their heads and contend again in 2007.

IN THE SPOTLIGHT: OF Jeremy Hermida. He was supposed to be Florida’s best rookie in 2006, but he wound up hitting .251 with five homers. Now that he has recovered from hip and ankle injuries, he should break out a year behind schedule.

5	WASHINGTON NATIONALS

QUICK TAKE: The Nationals have a brighter future now that they have real ownership. But their current pitching rotation is the worst in recent memory.

IN THE SPOTLIGHT: RHP John Patterson. Washington’s No. 1 starter, he made just eight starts last year because of a nerve problem in his forearm. He won one game, just three less than the rest of the Nationals’ projected rotation.

1	MILWAUKEE BREWERS

QUICK TAKE: No, this isn’t a typo. The Brewers will post their first winning season since 1992 and win their first division title since 1982.

IN THE SPOTLIGHT: RHP Ben Sheets. Milwaukee has amassed some rotation depth, so Sheets doesn’t have to carry as much of a burden as he has in the past. But he needs to stay fully healthy if the Brewers are going to contend. The last time he made it through a complete season was in 2004—when he ranked among the NL leaders in ERA (2.70) and strikeouts (264 in 238 innings).

2	ST. LOUIS CARDINALS

QUICK TAKE: The Cardinals will win more than 83 games this year, but they won’t capture the NL Central, let alone the World Series, this time around.

IN THE SPOTLIGHT: RHP Anthony Reyes. St. Louis has a lot of rotation question marks behind Chris Carpenter. It needs the World Series version of Reyes (eight strong innings in a Game One victory) to step forward, rather than the regular-season version (5-8, 5.06). Reyes has the stuff to be a big winner if he can avoid the injury problems that have dogged him in the past.

3	CINCINNATI REDS

QUICK TAKE: After having their best season since 2000 in the first year of Bob Castellini’s ownership, the Reds now hope to make a run at their first postseason appearance since 1995.

IN THE SPOTLIGHT: RHP Bronson Arroyo. Though he was signed through 2008, Cincinnati gave him a two-year, $25 million extension this offseason. But was his 2006 performance (14-11, 3.29, 184 strikeouts in 241 innings) truly a step forward or just a career year?

4	HOUSTON ASTROS

QUICK TAKE: The Astros nearly pulled off their third straight miraculous comeback with a late rush last September, only to finish a game short. The offense was the main culprit, so Houston went out and spent $100 million on Carlos Lee.

IN THE SPOTLIGHT: RHP Roger Clemens, as always. At 42, he led the majors with a 1.87 ERA and helped Houston reach its first World Series. At 43, he took the first two months off but was his usual dominant self afterward. He’d give the Astros a huge boost—if he decides to return at 44, and if he decides to spurn the Red Sox and Yankees.

5	CHICAGO CUBS

QUICK TAKE: The Cubs moved backward in the NL Central for the third straight year, so they have a new team president (John McDonough), new manager (Lou Piniella) and $298 million of new free agents. Yet they still have questions about their ability to get on base, their defense and their pitching depth.

IN THE SPOTLIGHT: GM Jim Hendry. If his spending spree doesn’t produce results, he may not get another chance to end his club’s 98-year (and counting) championship drought.

6	PITTSBURGH PIRATES

QUICK TAKE: Another year, another losing season. That would make 15 in a row, one shy of the record held by the 1933-48 Phillies.

IN THE SPOTLIGHT: GM Dave Littlefield. In his five full seasons running the Pirates, they’ve finished an average of 24 games back in the NL Central race. Even worse, neither the big league club nor the farm system has shown much improvement since he has taken over.

1	LOS ANGELES DODGERS

QUICK TAKE: The Dodgers integrated lots of young talent while making the playoffs a year ago. Look for them to do more of the same in 2007.

IN THE SPOTLIGHT:IN THE SPOTLIGHT: C Russell Martin. He received only one rookie of the year vote in 2006, but don’t be shocked if he receives stronger support for the MVP award this season. He’s a standout offensive and defensively, and he’s already a team leader at age 24.

2	ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS

QUICK TAKE: The Diamondbacks also integrated lots of young talent last year, and will continue to do more of the same. They’ll finish a lot closer to the Dodgers than 12 games back this season, however.

IN THE SPOTLIGHT: LHP Randy Johnson. Can he be more than the surly underachiever he was last year with the Yankees? If he’s closer to the pitcher who won four straight Cy Young Awards in Arizona, defending Cy Young winner Brandon Webb and Johnson will be the NL’s most dynamic pitching duo.

3	SAN DIEGO PADRES

QUICK TAKE: The Padres’ current streak of three straight winning seasons is the best in franchise history. They may stretch that to four, and a third consecutive division title is still a possibility.

IN THE SPOTLIGHT: 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff. If he’s really as good as his minor league stats (.332/.395/.556 in four seasons), San Diego has filled its third-base void. If he’s not, the Padres will regret giving up Josh Barfield to get him.

4	SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS

QUICK TAKE: After admitting it was time to alter their plan of surrounding Barry Bonds with older players, the Giants re-signed Bonds . . . and surrounded him with older players.

IN THE SPOTLIGHT: The easy choice would be OF Barry Bonds, for obvious reasons. But another Barry, LHP Zito, just signed for seven years and $126 million despite all statistical evidence suggesting that he has leveled off in the last three years.

5	COLORADO ROCKIES

QUICK TAKE: The Rockies can rival the Dodgers and Diamondbacks in terms of impact youngsters in their organization. They’re just not as ready to win in the majors.

IN THE SPOTLIGHT: 1B Todd Helton. There’s no doubt that he’s the greatest player in Colorado history, but he’s also in decline as a 33-year-old who turned in career lows in hitting (.302) and homers (15) in 2006. He has five years and $90.1 million remaining on his albatross of a contract, and if the Rockies can find a way to trade him, they should.