Top 25 Poll

By John Manuel
May 22, 2002

Florida State coach Mike Martin only stated the obvious because he was asked. The Atlantic Coast Conference, he said, is pretty dadgum tough.

"There's no question the league is the best I've seen it in the decade I've been in it," said Martin, who guided the Seminoles from the weaker Metro Conference into the ACC for the 1992 baseball season. "We've played very well, we've played good baseball.

"And I'm excited about that because I know how really, really strong our league has shown itself to be. Maryland is much better. Duke is much better. Clemson, Wake Forest, North Carolina--when we went up to Carolina and got swept, I'm telling you, that was a beautiful, beautiful baseball team."

The ACC boasts five such teams heading into the 2002 league tournament at Florida Power Park in St. Petersburg, Fla., an event that starts today. A dozen league tournaments begin in earnest today, and some started yesterday in this the last week of the regular season.

No team, though, has finished as strong as the Seminoles, and in a league boasting five teams in the top 15 of the Baseball America Top 25. In fact, according to the computer indexes out there--Boyd Nation's pseudo-RPI or Kenneth Massey's C-Base system (http://www.masseyratings.com/rate/cbase-m.htm)--the ACC is the nation's best league this season.

That's what makes Florida State's resurgence so impressive. The Seminoles were 3-6 three weeks into league play, having lost series on the road at North Carolina (the aforementioned sweep) and Wake Forest while winning two of three at Virginia. The schedule which had worked against the 'Noles, though, was about to turn in their favor.

After winning five of six during back-to-back weekend series against Miami, Florida State played four straight weekend series at the friendly confines of Dick Howser Stadium. Martin's teams usually play very well at home, making excellent use of the ballpark's unique dimensions (320 feet to right field, topped by a chain-link screen 30 feet high).

The 'Noles also played only one Top 25 team in that stretch, sweeping Duke, Georgia Tech, Maryland and North Carolina State. Still, confidence on the club ran high, leading to its stunning sweep of Clemson this weekend in which the Seminoles outscored the Tigers 30-9.

"It happened to be our weekend," Martin said modestly. "I don't think there's any question Clemson will bounce back. I was impressed with every facet of that ballclub. Everybody has a tough weekend during the year."

Florida State hasn't since the return of freshman shortstop Stephen Drew to the lineup. Drew broke a bone in his left foot in the first week of the season, during the team's seven-game road trip in Hawaii (hence the 63-game regular-season schedule; games in Hawaii don't count against the 56-game limit).

Drew returned March 26 as the DH against Mercer, then got back to playing shortstop March 29 at Wake Forest. Since his return, the 'Noles are 25-4.

"He's certainly a big factor in our success, but what he does is, you add him to the lineup, and it makes the entire lineup better," Martin said. "He gets in the mind of the other dugout. Plus he's an outstanding defensive player (.969 fielding percentage).

"I think he'll be able to eventually break games open with the long ball and with the stolen base--that's where I want to see him develop. His brother (J.D.) is the only one to go 30-30, but Stephen could be 20 homers and 40, 50, 60 steals. I don't know about 30-30, but he can be close."

Drew already has hit .379-11-43 in just 35 games, ranks second on the 'Noles in slugging percentage (.686) and has stolen nine bases in 11 tries. The only reason he won't be Team USA's starting shortstop this summer is scheduled surgery to remove the screw still in place in his left foot.

Drew has plenty of help in the lineup, from the likes of senior third baseman Ryan Barthelemy (.372-16-84) and sophomore outfielder Tony McQuade (.383-6-40), the team's leading hitter. But Martin's teams always focus on pitching and defense, and this one is no different. Florida State starters have pitched well during the win streak, with junior lefty Matt Lynch running his record to 12-1, 3.25 while working his curveball back into what had become a fastball-changeup repertoire.

Senior Blair Varnes had what Martin called one of his best starts of his career against Clemson last weekend, and has as much big-game experience as any pitcher in college baseball. Righty Marc LaMacchia (9-1, 3.53) has settled into the No. 3 starter's role, and FSU as always has a deep bullpen.

Junior Eric Roman began the year at the back of the 'pen as the closer, but an injury and his own ineffectiveness led Martin to go with righty Daniel Hodges instead, and Hodges has become the team's most effective pitcher. He's 3-1, 2.67 with eight saves, and has pitched 54 innings over 29 appearances.

He's given up 60 hits, evidence he's far from dominating, but Hodges has walked just nine and gives hitters a different look with his out pitch, a screwball. He did the same last summer in the Alaska League, giving up one earned run in 31 innings for the Anchorage Glacier Pilots.

"You wonder whether or not he could close with a gimmick pitch, but he has done it," Martin said. "(Padres closer) Trevor Hoffman throws a ton of changeups and he's getting it done. Eric Roman is healthy and ready to go now, but we'll stick with Hodges as the go-to guy."

The formula's working so far, to the tune of 17 straight wins.

Even with its hot streak and the fact the tournament is being played in Florida, it's hard to consider Florid a State the favorite this week in the ACC. Fifth-ranked Wake Forest has won three of the last four tournaments, including last year's. The tournament also has probably the best first-round matchup of any tournament in the country with No. 6 Clemson playing No. 10 Georgia Tech in the 4-5 game.

One huge matchup that has to be mentioned: Miami vs. New York Tech. Yes, the Bears have the best record among independents at 27-22, and one win at Miami (27-26) would clinch the best record as well as probably knock the defending national champion Hurricanes out of regional bid.

Miami is lobbying hard. The 'Canes sent out a release Tuesday trumpeting their No. 19 rank in the pseudo-RPIs. (How, exactly, did Miami move up six spots after winning two of three at home against decent-but-hardly-world-beating Jacksonville?) The 'Canes owe that ranking almost solely to scheduling Florida State twice, Georgia Tech and North Carolina, because the ACC leads the RPI as the nation's strongest conference, by a comfortable margin.

Frankly, that bit of lobbying comes off as weak. If Miami gets a regional bid, it will put up a fight. But if the 'Canes get a regional bid, it will be more because of what other teams didn't earn rather than what Miami earned.

Time for a lightning-round look at this week's tournaments:

• The America-East holds its four-team tournament on the campus of league regular-season champion Maine, which held off Vermont by two games as the Catamounts stumbled late. Northeastern and Stony Brook, each 11-11 in the league, are the third and fourth seeds.

• The ACC play-in game was Tuesday night, with Duke ousting Maryland 10-9. The Blue Devils get to play Florida State in the opener; the Seminoles scored at least 15 runs in each game of the three-game set those teams played May 5-7. The other first-round matchups has Wake Forest playing N.C. State in a rematch of last year's title game and North Carolina playing Virginia.

• Central Florida won the Atlantic Sun regular season by a game over slumping Florida Atlantic, which finished the year on a 6-8 slide. The top six teams qualified for the event in DeLand, Fla., on third-seeded Stetson's campus. Hatters sophomore catcher Chris Westervelt was named league player of the year on Tuesday. Troy State surged past Jacksonville as the fourth seed, with the Dolphins fifth and Samford sixth.

The big question is how many bids will the Atlantic Sun get. The guess here is three, despite what the RPI says (25 for Stetson, 47 for UCF and 48 for FAU). Somebody's got to get in.

• It's George Washington at No. 19 Richmond in a best-of-three set for the Atlantic-10's automatic bid. Power leagues around the country are rooting for the Spiders, who would get an at-large bid if they lost this series. GW's RPI checks in at 71.

• The four-team Big East tournament in Bridgewater, N.J., has Notre Dame playing Rutgers in the opening-round matchup. Questions continue to surround Bobby Brownlie's right arm; the Rutgers ace struck out none two weeks ago in a loss to the Irish, then got hit hard last weekend at St. John's.

Virginia Tech opens with Boston College in the 2-3 game. No one really seems to think the Big East will get two teams unless Notre Dame fails to win the tournament, and as current Arizona State coach Pat Murphy can tell you, some Irish teams with 40-plus wins have been left out of the tournament field before. Well, that was in a 48-team bracket, but it's happened.

• The Big South got two bids last year; Coastal Carolina ranks 31st in RPI. So if the Chanticleers (your regular-season Big South champs) fail to win the eight-team tournament at Rock Hill, S.C., history could repeat itself. Second-place Elon has a 39 RPI, and the Phoenix won a series at Miami and beat Wake Forest, so stranger things have happened.

• The Big Ten, though, looks like a one-team league. Minnesota won the regular season by a half-game and has a 79 RPI. Second-place Ohio State is way down at 107, and no one's talking about third-place Michigan State. Junior outfielder Bobby Malek and friends lead the Big 10 in RPI at 75. At 36-17, 16-12 Big Ten, perhaps the Spartans could sneak in if the committee's feeling generous this weekend.

• The Big 12 is one of the most intriguing leagues. Of the eight teams that made the league tournament, only sixth-seed Kansas State (28-23, 13-13) has not been ranked this year. Top-seed Texas looks strong, and second-seeded Nebraska has bounced back and has Shane Komine available, though he's clearly not ready to go nine innings after missing nearly 40 days.

Texas Tech is the league's hottest team, the third seed on the 15-game winning streak. The Huskers' first-round matchup with seventh-seeded Baylor should be a doozy. The Bears are just 34-22, 13-13, but their non-league schedule helps them to an RPI of 24. Oklahoma, which won two-of-three in an intense Bedlam Series last weekend, has a 29 RPI and at 33-23, 15-12, probably has earned a bid.

So it looks like four teams are definitely in, with the possibility of five or even a league-high six bids. Fifth-seed Oklahoma State, also 13-13 but 37-19 overall, is down at 42, with eight-seed Texas A&M at 52. That's bubble territory. K-State checks in at 70, which probably means it has to win the whole shebang.

• No tournament in the Big West, where Long Beach State and No. 17 Cal State Fullerton play for second place and a possible regional host site. It makes sense for at least two regionals to be located in the West, and one almost certainly will go to Stanford.

The other could go to Southern California, the Long Beach/Fullerton series winner (CSUF swept earlier this year in a non-league set) or possibly San Diego State, if the Aztecs win the Mountain West tournament. It's hard to imagine three California regionals, but there could be seven or eight regional teams from the state. Would that be just right for two regionals, or justification for a third, possibly at Arizona State?

• The Colonial tournament started Tuesday with Virginia Commonwealth beating UNC Wilmington and Delaware beating George Mason. William & Mary (77 RPI) won the Colonial division while James Madison won the American division. The Dukes (21) have a safe enough RPI, it would seem to not have to win the tournament.

UNC Wilmington (41), Delaware (45) and the rest of the league is on much shakier ground with regard to at-large bids.

• Conference USA looks poised to pick up some regional slack. Top-seeded Houston won its opening-round game 5-0 against Saint Louis and faces fourth-seeded Southern Mississippi, which got swept over the weekend by Tulane but beat the Green Wave on Tuesday.

Tournament host East Carolina (the event is being played in Kinston, N.C.) is the sixth seed and plays Texas Christian in the first round, with two-seed Louisville matched with South Florida. C-USA seems capable of placing as few as three and as many as five teams into regionals, depending on how the tournament goes and how other leagues shake out.

For example, what's East Carolina's position with a 38 RPI and late fade to go with a 16-13-1, sixth-place conference finish? Does TCU have a prayer at 29-27 overall (43 RPI) but 19-11 in the league? The loss to Southern Miss may doom Tulane (55 RPI).

• The Horizon tournament features a Wednesday play-in game between Detroit and Wright State. Illinois-Chicago, led by junior outfielder Curtis Granderson, won the regular season by winning three of four at UW Milwaukee.

• Four teams head to Fishkill, N.Y., for the MAAC tourney. Marist won the regular season at 37-12, 22-5 overall, and plays Rider while second-seeded Le Moyne plays Siena. Can Marist (65 RPI) get an at-large bid if it doesn't win the tournament? Perhaps, especially if past tournament performance is taken into account. Marist won a game at Stanford's regional last year and lost by a run to the host Cardinal.

• The six-team MAC tourney has Bowling Green as the host thanks to its .720 winning percentage; the Falcons open with Miami (Ohio), where lefthander Chris Leonard is out with Tommy John surgery. Kent State and Ball State meet in the 3-4 matchup, with Eastern Michigan and Central Michigan the 2-5.

• Oral Roberts (43-17, 16-2) is the prohibitive favorite to repeat as Mid-Continent Conference champs. It's always tough to know just how good the Golden Eagles are; few teams will play coach Sonny Galloway's club, which opens with Valparaiso. Southern Utah, the second seed, is 5-28 outside the Mid-Con and plays third-seeded Oakland.

• Wichita State once again plays host to the Missouri Valley tournament. Last year, the league got one bid. Three-seed Southwest Missouri State (46 RPI) and No. 2 seed Creigton (50) hope that wasn't a precedent-setter.

• San Diego State is the top seed at Brigham Young's Miller Field, site of the MWC tourney. Not even the Aztecs' 40-21 mark should be good enough for an at-large bid, not with an 83 RPI. If they win the tournament, though, they would make for an attractive host as a new bidder, and having drawn close to 2,000 fans for home games the last month. That's pretty good for a big league city.

• Six teams troop to Paducah, Ky., for the Ohio Valley tournament. Again, a one-bid league, with Southeast Missouri State (32-17, 16-5) the top seed.

• No tournament in the Pac-10, but Southern California's one-game lead in the league is on the line instead. The Trojans visit UCLA, which it humiliated early in the year with a 26-4 win. USC has a one-game lead plus owns the tiebreak on Washington (28-24-1, 13-8). The Huskies play host to Arizona, and who knows' the Huskies regional fate. It's hard to imagine the committee passing on the Pac-10's No. 2 team, even if its RPI is 87.

Stanford can win the league with a sweep of visiting Washington State and one USC loss, as the Cardinal won the season series. Fourth-place Arizona State has Oregon State at home this weekend; at 32-19, 12-9, the Sun Devils should be in now, but a series win would clinch it. No way the committee can pass on a 14-10 Pac-10 team . . . right? However, ASU and Washington both got passed with 12-12 league records in 1999.

• OK, the SEC is next, and I don't see how the SEC can get eight bids again, as it did in record-setting fashion last year. In fact, this looks like a six-bid league.

South Carolina, Alabama, LSU and Florida are slam-dunks, and three or four will be regional hosts, with two or three in the top eight national seeds. No other team, though, can be sure it is a regional team.

Auburn and Georgia are 15-15, usually good enough for the SEC thanks to the league's RPI (Auburn is at 26, Georgia at 16 somehow). But Georgia is also just 30-25 overall and stumbling down the stretch; Auburn hangs its hat on an early season sweep of North Carolina and that league record, plus a 34-22 overall mark.

We'll give you Auburn, but if the Bulldogs go 0-2, it's hard to make the argument for them. They're 2-8 in their last 10, and besides the 4-5 mark against ACC elites like North Carolina, Clemson, Wake Forest and Georgia Tech, Georgia doesn't have a strong case. It won two series against SEC tournament teams, winning two of three from Alabama and Arkansas.

Mississippi State (33-22-1, 14-15) and Arkansas (30-24, 13-14) probably have to win at least two games in the event, as 1-2 finishes would put both two games below .500. Yes, I know the SEC is very good, but asking a team to go .500 in the conference isn't asking too much, is it? Arkansas has the RPI edge, 36 vs. 44.

• The Southern Conference looks like a one-bid league heading to its eight-team event at Charleston, S.C. Guess the SoCon's top RPI team? It's fourth-seed UNC Greensboro at 97, followed by top-seed the Citadel at 98. Not a recipe for an at-large bid.

• The Southland has received two bids before, and top-seed Northwestern State (40-15, 17-10) has a shot with a 62 RPI, but the Demons shouldn't take any chances. Sixth-seed Southwest Texas surprisingly has the best RPI in the league at 34-22, 14-13.

• The Sun Belt event should also be one to watch. The top two seeds, host South Alabama and Louisiana-Lafayette, are in and will be very tough regional foes wherever they go. Western Kentucky, the third seed, had a weak non-league schedule leading to a 61 RPI. Florida International closed strong at 39-16, 13-11, behind slugging first baseman Brad Eldred (27 homers).

FIU also has a regional title under its belt from last season and a 28 RPI, but let's examine it. Like Miami, FIU doesn’t go on the road if it doesn't have to, and ACC teams don't get the same buzz from playing FIU as they do playing Miami, so it doesn't happen.

FIU played its first 26 games in Dade County (Miami area), and has played three-game series with Wagner and St. Francis (N.Y.), balancing out some of those games with Miami and FAU. However, the Golden Panthers are hot, having won eight of 10 since losing two of three at South Alabama. A strong tournament finish probably will earn a third Sun Belt bid for the Golden Panthers, probably leap-frogging Western Kentucky.

• The WAC regular season winds up with top-ranked Rice at Louisiana Tech, while No. 22 San Jose State plays host to Nevada. And the Bob Bennett era figures to come to a close at Fresno State as the 29-27 Bulldogs play host to Hawaii.

• The West Coast playoff has San Diego at Pepperdine. No offense, but we were rooting for Gonzaga vs. Portland.