BA predictions
	NCAA field

By John Manuel
May 27, 2002

So much for geography playing a major factor in the NCAA's regional selection process. So much for major changes in the regional field. So much for any savvy in determining which teams get in.

The Division I baseball committee's decision regarding regional selection can be summed up easily: The Ratings Percentage Index and geography matters. Nothing else matters.

Finish first in your league's regular season? That's not as impressive as finishing seventh but playing a decent non-conference schedule. If you happen to play in Florida versus Oklahoma or Minnesota, where playing home games in February or March is nearly impossible, that's just to your advantage.

No matter what committee chairman Wally Groff or other members might say Monday or over the next couple of weeks--and you know that if the top eight national seeds get to Omaha, this committee will pat itself on the back for the great job it did--the 2002 regional field has major, major flaws that could have been easily avoided.

"(The emphasis on geography) makes it harder, definitely," said Groff, the athletic director at Texas A&M. "When you are reviewing the brackets, it doesn't make a lot of sense, the weight of some compared to others. It's a less flexible situation than we've had in the past."

As a result, the committee made flawed decisions using wrong logic. Teams make the field that shouldn't have--the prime suspects being Elon (34-21) and South Florida (33-27) as well as Arkansas (31-26). That happens every year, and certainly other teams that didn't get in such as Minnesota (32-26), Northwestern State (43-17) San Diego State (43-23), Rutgers (35-22) and Oklahoma State (37-21) have serious problems.

The teams that made it got in solely on RPI strength. South Florida finished seventh in Conference USA, certainly a strong league but not one in which the seventh-place team should be rewarded. With a 37 RPI or not, South Florida has to be shocked to receive a bid.

Elon ranked 45th thanks in part to winning a series at Miami (which wasn't special this year; the Hurricanes lost five home series) and with a win over Wake Forest. But scheduling those teams shouldn't be the end-all, be-all. Elon finished second in the Big South, a solid league but not one deserving of two bids this year.

Arkansas, along with Southeastern Conference cohorts Auburn and Georgia, are classic cases of teams getting in just because of the RPI of their league. All three had losing records in the league. Just because it's the SEC--and it is the nation's deepest league--doesn't mean it should automatically get six or seven bids.

Georgia lost eight of its last 10 games and is just 30-27 against a strong schedule, but not one that required much travel. The Bulldogs did go 4-5 against ACC elites Clemson, Georgia Tech, North Carolina and Wake Forest. Auburn hangs its hat mostly on three-game sweeps of North Carolina and Virginia Commonwealth, as well as a pair of wins against South Alabama.

Arkansas has less to stand on. Series wins against Auburn and Mississippi (which didn't even make the SEC tourney field) are its best. The Razorbacks had three non-Division I wins, making them just 27-26 against D-I opponents. It also went 1-2 against Georgia, McNeese State and Mississippi State. This is an RPI pick and looks also like a quota pick to assure the SEC of seven bids, its usual fill.

San Diego State and Minnesota don't look too good when you look at the RPI--the Aztecs rank 87th, the Golden Gophers 84th. But over the test of the season, both came out as the best in their respective leagues not on a computer or in a formula, but on the field.

Which is more deserving, the Big Ten champion or the seventh-place team in C-USA? The Mountain West regular-season champion (by a four-game margin) or the second-place team (by three games) in the Big South? Neither is a powerhouse league. Same with Northwestern State, winner of the Southland Conference for the eighth time in 12 years but again not chosen, which seems to be an annual rite of summer.

Worse, San Diego State lost twice Saturday at Brigham Young in the MWC tournament, losing a chance at an automatic bid. But for the season, SDSU was 7-2 against the Cougars--clearly, the Aztecs over the course of the season were the better team. On one day, they weren't. That shouldn't cost them a regional bid, especially not to teams that finished seventh in their leagues.

The most egregious part of the selection process, though, was with regard to seedings. These were most affected by the changes in regional process, with an increased attempt to keep teams on bus trips instead of flying.

Seeding was based relative to each regional, rather than relative to the entire country. That's how Cal State Fullerton gets a No. 4 seed, but Navy gets a No. 3 seed. In fact, Navy (22-23, Patriot League champion) as a three seed is the biggest miscarriage on the board. George Washington, with a 59 RPI versus Navy's 173, is the No. 4 seed at the same Wake Forest regional.

"Two conference teams can't play in the first round, so George Washington had to be the four seed (to avoid playing Richmond)," Groff said.

With all apologies, Mr. Groff, the Colonials should have been asked to get on a plane from Washington, D.C., or to take the extra 77 miles above the 400-mile limit and go to Columbia, S.C., switching places with Virginia Commonwealth.

Worse, two regionals stand out for their toughness. Stanford has four Top 25 clubs--the Cardinal, Long Beach State, San Jose State and Cal State Fullerton, the best No. 4 seed ever. The Columbia, S.C., regional also looks incredibly tough, with North Carolina, James Madison and Virginia Commonwealth sent to Columbia while the Wake Forest regional gets Navy as a third seed.

All in all, just blaming these mistakes on geography isn't justification for making the tournament field a sham. Critics of college baseball have new ammunition to take aim at the sport. What the committee seems to forget is, some of those critics are athletic directors with budget axes, and this tournament field gives them more and more reasons to take that ax to baseball.