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2003 CWS Regionals Preview: Part 1
2003 CWS Regionals Preview: Part 2
By John Manuel We really get rolling on the road to Omaha with the beginning of regionals on Friday. Super-regionals follow next weekend, with the College World Series opening the week after that (June 13). Before we get that far, though, we'll give you the lowdown on how the teams stack up in each regional. Today we look at half of the regional field--the "left side" of the bracket, for lack of a better term--with the other half coming at you before games get under way Friday. Tallahassee Regional
1. Florida State (50-10, at-large; won Atlantic Coast Conference regular season) Most Valuable Player: Just when it looked like Florida State shortstop Stephen Drew was getting hot (his average was up to .344), he slumped at the ACC tournament. His .328-9-49 year with 18 errors looks ordinary in some ways, though he has 32 steals in 35 tries and a gaudy 45-20 BB-K ratio. But he's the best player on the best team in the country and is out to make up for last year's shocking super-regional loss to Notre Dame. Drew was 15-for-25 in the postseason last year, until a 0-for-4 day in the super-regional final that included a ninth-inning strikeout. The Favorite: Florida State dominated its regional last year, and it's hard to imagine the Seminoles won't do it again. There's not a hard thrower in the rotation and closer Daniel Hodges assembled his All-America resume (5-1, 0.92, 12 saves, six BB in 49 IP) with a screwball. The lineup is deep enough to have withstood the slightly torn hamstring of freshman third baseman Eddy Martinez-Esteve, who may not be ready to play in the field yet, but his bat will be needed for a deep postseason run. But Don't Forget About: Rutgers made it back to regionals without Bobby Brownlie, after missing the postseason with him last year. This year's team is much more offensive, led by senior DH Matt Wolski (.389-1-33), who was out last year with a back injury. Second baseman Graig Badger ignites the lineup with his speed (37 steals) and on-base ability (51 walks, .454 OBP). The Scarlet Knights will need to shut down the Seminoles' potent offense to do better than 2-2. Watch Out For: Jacksonville won the A-Sun tournament as a No. 6 seed, and a few weeks ago they won a series from Miami, their first time ever doing that. The series helped them finish the season with eight wins in their last 10 games. Outfielder Chad Hauseman (.403-16-36) didn't get a ton of help this year, but then the Dolphins' strength is on the mound, with a group of solid starters led by control freak Darren Truty (23 BB in 89 IP) and hard-throwing closer Bobby Bowman (four saves, 2.08 ERA), a recent revelation who was throwing in the 90s. Just Happy To Be Here: The postseason history for South Alabama, both in the distant or recent past, isn't pretty. Remember last year's 25-1 loss to Notre Dame when the Jags were the top seed at the Irish's regional? The starter for that game was Clark Girardeau (6-2, 2.30), who is again the team's ace. This is a good team, with a powerful offense (71 homers, 8.2 rpg), but it's hard to pick against that track record. Austin Regional
1. Texas (43-17; won Big 12 Conference tournament) Most Valuable Player: Huston Street isn't starting at third anymore for Texas, now that J.D. Reininger is healthy again, but when Reininger stumbles defensively coach Augie Garrido turns to his best athlete. Street has been even more dominant on the mound than he was as a freshman. As many hard-throwing closers as there are around the country, as steady as Cal State Fullerton's Chad Cordero has been and as dominant as even Houston's Ryan Wagner has been, there's no one who touches Street. The Favorite: How did Texas, the defending national champion and winner of the Big 12 tournament, not get a top eight national seed? And how is the winner of this regional paired with Florida State? The Horns at least got a relatively easy regional, with a No. 2 seed that you could argue doesn't even belong in the field of 64. If Texas' defense doesn't collapse, it shouldn't lose a game in this round. And by the way, Garrido needs just four wins to tie Cliff Gustafson's record for career wins; he's at 1,423. Sweep a regional, then win a super-regional to break Gus' record--a Hollywood storyline for a SoCal guy. But Don't Forget About: The Southland got a pair of bids and probably deserved three (Texas-Arlington has as good a case as Pepperdine, Southwest Missouri State and Florida). So Lamar has to show it's more than just a Rice-killer by getting its offense in gear. The Cardinals scored just seven runs in a pair of conference tournament losses, after scoring nine or more runs in eight of their previous 12 games. Junior left fielder Jordan Foster (.442-7-68, .502 on-base percentage) needs more help then he's been getting of late. Because of their own home park, the Cardinals should be well suited for Disch-Falk Field's spacious dimensions. Watch Out For: Arkansas was hampered by injuries this year, hampering its defense and putting too much pressure on a thin pitching staff. Give coach Dave Van Horn his due: His club went 13-13 against teams that made the regional field. The Razorbacks were better than anyone expected in the tournament last year, winning the regional at Wichita State and pushing Clemson to the limit in a super-regional. But in Van Horn's first year, you get the feeling he's glad the team made the postseason, to help with recruiting as he reshapes the program. Expect bigger and better things from the 'Backs in the future. Just Happy To Be Here: Bucknell won just 15 games a year ago but turned it around this year to make a third regional appearance in eight years. The Bison haven't won in their previous two trips, and junior righthander Kevin Miller (8-1, 3.18) will have to give a Herculean effort for it to happen this time. Wilson, N.C., Regional
1. North Carolina State (42-16, at-large; ACC) Most Valuable Player: In a regional without a star, N.C. State senior Chad Orvella may be the most important player. The Wolfpack knew he would provide steady defense at shortstop, and his .971 fielding percentage and seven errors tell you he's done that. His offense (team-best .464 on-base percentage) has been a boon for a team that can struggle to score runs, and he adds an extra dimension on the mound. A couple of bad outings give him an 8.31 ERA, but his 18-3 K-BB ratio in 18 innings tells you he can contribute. In a regional, he may have to. The Favorite: Virginia Commonwealth is our first favorite that isn't a No. 1 seed, based on a good draw and 21 victories in their last 22 games, making them the tournament's hottest team. Maybe they weren't the best team in town all year (Richmond won three of four in the season series), but they have a much easier regional than the Spiders. The spacious dimensions at Wilson's Fleming Stadium play to VCU's strengths: pitching (nation's best ERA) and hustle. The Rams can manufacture runs, and the pitching staff has talent from start (righthander Justin Orenduff is 8-3, 2.43 with 113 K's in 89 IP) to finish (co-closers Cla Meredith and Brian Marshall are a combined 11-4, 1.87 with 19 saves). But Don't Forget About: It's good to see North Carolina State rewarded with its first regional host spot. Coach Elliot Avent had not taken the team to regionals since 1999, leading to rumors about his job security. Then the wrecking ball belatedly razed Doak Field, forcing the Wolfpack on the road most of the season. Avent took a team of overachievers and forged an opportunistic offense that always seems to come up with the clutch hit. N.C. State has power (.463 slugging, 69 homers), but it may not play at Fleming, leaving it up to pitchers Mike Rogers (11-3, 2.83) and Vern Sterry (11-0, 3.02). If they have enough left in the tank, or if lefty Nate Cretarolo can repeat his shutout effort from last weekend's ACC tournament, the Pack can overcome the Rams. Watch Out For: Western Carolina's average regional effort is 1-2 (9-18 overall in nine previous trips), and that looks about right for this team. First baseman Alan Beck (.338-18-71, 45 BB) powers a solid offense, and the pitchers throw strikes. Righty Ryan Basner (8-2, 2.95, just 27 BB in 119 IP) might steal a game, but VCU and NCSU should prove too much. Just Happy To Be Here: Le Moyne has an ace in lefthander Brian Mattoon (9-3, 2.98) and got its first NCAA bid since 1989, but it's hard to see the Dolphins getting a win with three other legit teams. Coral Gables, Fla., Regional
1. Miami (39-14, at-large; independent) Most Valuable Player: Ryan Braun doesn't lead Miami's prolific basestealing efforts (113 thefts in 150 chances), but he's the Hurricanes' best offensive player and has been all year. The last Miami freshman to have a year like his (.358-14-66) was Pat Burrell. Braun has slumped a bit down the stretch, but facing Long Beach State and adding shortstop duties (a DH much of the year, he took over for struggling Paco Figueroa down the stretch) will do that. The Favorite: Miami is to be commended for going to Long Beach State and winning a series, as well as sweeping Georgia Tech this year. This team has talent, though it is young. Otherwise, what did the Hurricanes do to merit a top eight national seed? Go 2-3 against Jacksonville and Florida? Sweep Pace and Savannah State? To make good on the seed, the 'Canes will need Brandon Carmodese to repeat his fine effort at Long Beach to give junior ace J.D. Cockroft support in the rotation. It's an odd-numbered year, and the last two times that happened, Miami won championships (2001, 1999). But Don't Forget About: Florida Atlantic has it tough coming off a disappointing A-Sun tournament, going to Miami and drawing the fired-up Gators and ace Justin Hoyman in the first game. The Owls have the best pitching in this regional by far, they catch the ball better than the other teams, and they won a regional on the road at Alabama last season. Don't be surprised if it happens again. Watch Out For: Bethune-Cookman, just because another team is more worthy of being happy to be here. We'd be remiss if we didn't mention Wildcats righthander Mumbo Rivera, their top pitcher with a fastball in the 87-91 mph range. Just Happy To Be Here: The ninth-place team in a conference, no matter how strong the conference is, should not make regionals. It doesn't matter that Florida was just a half-game out of sixth, or that Ben Harrison was sick for their series at Vanderbilt, or that they had to break in seven new starters from last year's fine club. They finished ninth. The SEC is a great league, but it was down this year and did not deserve eight bids. Of course, now watch the Gators rally behind sophomore righthander Justin Hoyman and win a game or two . . . or not. Houston Regional
1. Rice (48-10; won Western Athletic Conference) Most Valuable Player: It's hard to pick one of Rice's pitchers, but righthander Jeff Niemann has survived high pitch counts and rose above the stiff competition of teammates Wade Townsend and Philip Humber. He's tied for the national lead with 14 wins (with Southeast Missouri State's Tim Alvarez, a sidearming lefthander who ended his 14-3 season with a no-hitter during the Ohio Valley Conference tournament), and his ERA is 1.68. He uses all of his 6-foot-9 frame and throws one of college baseball's heaviest sinkers. The Favorite: The big question for Rice coach Wayne Graham entering the regional was which pitcher to use when. He scheduled Humber to start the opener with Niemann going Saturday. Townsend is slated to start the third game, but it would surprise no one if he came out of the bullpen if the Owls are in a tight spot in game one or two. Rice has won a regional three of the last four years thanks to its pitching, and there's enough offense to support the arms in this field, too. But Don't Forget About: Call it a hunch, but it seems like Wichita State is playing its best right now. The Shockers have had a trying season, with coach Gene Stephenson missing time with prostate surgery while also battling injuries (broken leg, knee ligament damage) from a skiing accident in January. He has righted his team, which was embarrassed in a home series by Creighton a month ago, behind an old Shockers standby--pitching. Freshman righty Mike Pelphrey (9-2, 2.49) has done it all year, but junior lefty David Sanders (7-4, 5.84) finally has shown more of his 2002 Cape Cod League form of late, making the Shox dangerous. Watch Out For: Mississippi has made the most of a year that hasn't worked out as hoped. Alan Horne missed most of the year with an elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery. Fellow sophomore Seth Smith, a freshman All-American last year, hasn't lived up to last year's numbers. The team relies heavily on the pitching of righthander T.J. Beam (8-1, 2.84) and SEC freshman of the year Stephen Head (3-1, 1.48 in addition to his .335-6-42 offense), but lacks the offense to win more than two games in the regional. Just Happy To Be Here: Teams that have faced McNeese State rave about the Cowboys' pitching. Junior righthander Rusty Begnaud, who has an above-average curveball, is the best pitcher on the club, but it's hard to believe McNeese won't start in an 0-1 hole after facing the host Owls. College Station, Texas, Regional
1. Texas A&M (43-17, at-large; Big 12) Most Valuable Player: This is another regional with dominant closers--Alabama's Brian Reed is plenty good--but Texas A&M's Scott Beerer also brings his bat. Second on the team in homers (10) and RBIs (53), first in appearances (25) and saves (12), Beerer is the biggest reason the Aggies are back in regional play for the first time since 1999. The Favorite: Texas A&M. Consider the junior-college infusion of talent a success for the Aggies, who have relied heavily on their outfield of Beerer, Cory Patton (.340-13-57) and Justin Ruggiano (.329-8-46). But four-year players are pretty crucial for this club, especially on the mound. Lefthanders Zach Dixon and Kyle Parcus have pitched well of late, with Parcus shining in the Big 12 tourney against Texas. And in the field, junior second baseman Erik Schindewolf (.352, .459 OBP) has given the team a legitimate leadoff hitter in front of the boppers. But Don't Forget About: Rice coach Wayne Graham said it in April: No one is going to want to see Houston's power arms like Ryan Wagner, Brad Sullivan and Garrett Mock, not to mention lefty Danny Zell, in a regional. The Cougars just don't hit enough to win three games away from home, unless junior third baseman Hyung Cho (.356-13-58) gets more help. Watch Out For: Oral Roberts made it to a regional final last year and has plenty of regional experience, what with six straight Mid-Con titles. They went 6-7 against teams in this year's regionals, with wins against Miami and Southwest Missouri State. Righthander/DH Dennis Bigley (.280-9-48, 10-2, 2.69) and freshman lefty Taylor McIntyre (7-2, 2.27) could make things interesting, but the Eagles are still behind Houston and the Aggies on the mound. Just Happy To Be Here: Alabama probably would have gotten a bid without its sweep of the SEC tournament, considering how well the SEC was treated by the committee, but this was a team on its heels. The Tide had lost nine of 10 before Birmingham. The team relies on four pitchers: lefties Taylor Tankersley and Brent Carter, righty Seth Johnson and closer Brian Reed (though Reed was better last year). Usually that would be enough, but not in this field. The guess here is the Tide is spent after its SEC run. Lincoln, Neb., Regional
1. Nebraska (44-16, at-large; won Big 12 regular season) Most Valuable Player: According to one opposing coach, few players improved this season as much as Nebraska's Matt Hopper, a fifth-year player who didn't even get drafted after a disappointing, injury-riddled 2002 season. The big slugger's home runs dwindled from 21 to 12 to nine over his first three seasons before he shortened his swing and delivered a .374-18-59 season. He led the Big 12 in homers and slugging percentage (.682) while drawing 47 walks, leading to a .496 on-base percentage. The Favorite: If Nebraska couldn't get a top eight national seed, at least it got a reasonably easy regional. Only Eastern Michigan can join the Huskers in saying they've been to Omaha, and that was back in 1975-76. Nebraska has two excellent starters in lefthander Aaron Marsden and righthander Quinton Robertson, But Don't Forget About: Coastal Carolina would have been really dangerous as a No. 3 seed. Now, SMS and Nebraska probably realize this is a good team. The Big South was down this year and the Chanticleers didn't win the regular season, but they played a great non-league schedule and won two of three at Pepperdine. The Chants are 9-3 against teams in the field, and have the pitching, led by senior lefty Justin Sturge (10-2, 3.04) and Canadian righty Steven Carter (11-3, 4.02), to win a regional. Don't forget their performance at Georgia's regional in 2001, when only Jeff Keppinger's third homer of the day kept Coastal from a super-regional berth. Watch Out For: Southwest Missouri State has become a different program since moving into Price Cutter Park in Springfield. Old Meador Park was a homer zone (spawning sluggers from Steve Hacker to Jason Hart to Matt Cepicky to Ryan Howard), but now the Bears' forte is pitching. Righthanders Chad Mulholland, Shaun Marcum, Brad Ziegler and Bob Zimmermann give the Bears the arms for a deep regional run, though they're probably a bat or two short to win it. Just Happy To Be Here: It wouldn't be a shock if Eastern Michigan throws a scare into Nebraska, especially if the Huskers hold back their top two starters in the opener. EMU can mash (.306 average, 54 homers), but players like junior outfielder Ryan Goleski (team-best 14 homers) need more help from their pitchers (5.61 ERA, opponents average of .308). Auburn, Ala., Regional
1. Auburn (40-19, at-large; SEC) Most Valuable Player: If you're a fan of sabermetrics, take a look at Auburn's run differential. The Tigers have given up 288 runs and scored 370. Crank those numbers and you get a team that should have about a .560 winning percentage; instead Auburn sits at 40-19, .678. Credit the Tigers' ability to win close games to the bullpen, anchored by slight righthander Stephen Register. The Favorite: This regional should never have been assembled, what with three of the teams nicknamed "Tigers." Isn't the Division I baseball committee paying attention to what matters? Auburn has been the pick here as the SEC's best team all year, and the committee likes the Tigers too because Auburn is the No. 4 national seed. It's hard to argue that Auburn had a better year than Texas or Nebraska, but this is a complete club. It can score every way, it defends well enough, and if the starters give six innings, the Tigers can pitch with anybody. Perhaps sophomore lefthander Arnold Hughey, fresh off a complete-game win against South Carolina in the SEC tournament, can lead the way. But Don't Forget About: This is not a typical Clemson team, at least not like those of recent vintage. There are few stars, either on the mound or at the plate. Senior first baseman Michael Johnson (63 walks) never sees a good pitch in an important situation, and the best pitchers--righty Stephen Jackson and lefty Tyler Lumsden--have been inconsistent, with Lumsden slumping down the stretch. But Clemson always plays hard, and what Jeff Baker once called the "white shoes aura" of the program is usually good for at least two regional wins. Watch Out For: The big question is when Princeton will use junior righthander Thomas Pauly, who was the decisive factor in the Tigers' Ivy championship series with Harvard. Usually a reliever, Pauly (6-1, 1.25, six saves) beat the Crimson as a starter in the deciding game, and his mid-90s fastball and power slider helped him average 13.8 strikeouts per nine innings during the year. He and sophomores Ryan Quillian and Ross Ohlendorf give the Tigers enough arms to pull an upset or two. Just Happy To Be Here: Ohio State has a solid team, and with a better RPI the Buckeyes might have been a regional host. Instead, they come to Auburn without ace lefthander Scott Lewis (9-1, 1.61), who will have Tommy John surgery. They do have slugging utilityman Chris Snavely, who after a frigid start was hitting .344-15-51 with a robust .496 on-base percentage. OSU has about the same run differential as Auburn, but the SEC is a bit more stout than the Big 10. |
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