College World Series Preview Chat

Moderator: John Manuel will go into the chat room for a rolling start at 12:30 Eastern, prior to the press conference involving all eight College World Series coaches.

Q:	Mike from Tampa asks: John, great job this year, once again. And once again Florida State will spend the offseason suffering from a disappointing close to an otherwise great year. Please address the 'Noles draw. I felt they were really shafted by having to take-on defending champ Texas in the supers. Thanks and keep up the good work.
A:	John Manuel: Mike, thanks for the kind words. Florida State should be pretty angry with its draw, and it's really odd that it was paired with Texas considering the head of the Division I baseball committee is Charlie Carr, associate AD at FSU. Texas should have been a top eight national seed, clearly having had a better year to that point than Auburn. The key to the super-regional, as we wrote, was the battle of super sophomores was clearly won by Texas. Huston Street has been the difference make for Texas the last two years, and Stephen Drew was injured in the S-R. Florida State, in the end, missed Drew and Marc LaMacchia, whose power arm might have made a big difference in a short series. The fact the team had such a great year without its No. 1 starter is impressive.

Q:	Peter Friberg from San Diego, CA asks: How good of a SS (defensively) is Miami's Braun? Seeing him on TV, it looks like he has the frame to add a bit of bulk (much the way A-Rod has built himself up over the years - tho not to compare the 2 as players)...
A:	John Manuel: Yeah, no one should be compared to A-Rod except Nomar, Jeter and Miguel Tejada, and even they fall short. But Ryan Braun had a fantastic year and showed himself to be a big-game player in the regional and super-regional. Braun played a lot of DH early in the year and some second base as well. Right now, his defense is behind his bat, and it probably always will be. But he has been better down the stretch than Paco Figueroa, who was removed from the lineup the last month or so while Braun was moved from DH to SS.

Q:	Peter Friberg from San Diego, CA asks: What top Sophs (or red-shirt freshmen) are playing in the CWS that those of us draftniks should watch for next year?
A:	John Manuel: Lots of good sophomores here for next year, starting with Rice's pitchers. Jeff Niemann, Wade Townsend and Philip Humber should be very good drafts next year, all three are possible first-rounders, and SS Paul Janish could be because of his arm and defense, though he needs to show more offense. Texas' Huston Street may not be considered an elite prospect, but his makeup and athleticism will make him a good pro. CS Fullerton RHP Dustin Miller had a dominating start against Arizona State, has a good frame and throws strikes with average stuff and might be the Titans' best 2004 draft-eligible player. South Carolina's best is probably LHP Matt Campbell, with an upper-80s fastball and a plus curve, though he needs better fastball command. Stanford of course is loaded, but its best draft for '04 might be RHP Marc Jecmen, whose command woes in his first two seasons have him relegated deep on their bench. He has great size and velocity. OF Chris Carter has a great power bat but his position is in question after a shoulder injury last fall.

Q:	Conrad from Louisiana asks: What do you believe is the best matchup in the first round? I think if Bumstead pitches well for LSU against Fullerton, then that may be the best game.
A:	John Manuel: Miami-Texas is the history matchup, three of the last four national champions. Kind of hard to beat that. It's also the probation matchup, with both teams getting slapped on the wrist by the NCAA in the last eight months. LSU-CS Fullerton is one where the teams have a history, with Fullerton having been sent to Baton Rouge for regionals in the past. LSU definitely needs its starting pitching to do well here (as every team does, of course), as its staff is a bit more top-heavy with five pitchers earning the coaches' trust. Bumstead, who was dominant in SEC play, was good against Baylor in the super-regional, but Steven White was better.

Q:	Eitan Altman from San Francisco asks: Is this the year that Rice finally breaks through for Wayne Graham? This team is much better than the Berkman-Crosby-Ramos-Anderson squad of 1997 when I was at Rice; the 2003 Owls play amazing defense, and the depth of their pitching talent is unmatched in college baseball. The one area where the 2003 Owls trail the 1997 squad is a lack of big power hitters. Can the Owls score enough to blast through a relatively easy bracket and into the championship?
A:	John Manuel: I think that Rice's bracket isn't easy, but the other bracket is stronger. Rice has enough offense, and Enrique Cruz could be a big key for them. He can be pitched to, but he's their best power hitter right now, and if he comes up big here, I think Rice can win it all. I agree that it's their best team, and think how much better they would be if they had a healthy Steven Herce. Remarkable year for a team that hasn't had its returning ace healthy all year.

Q:	Jan Baggerman from New Orleans, Louisiana asks: Do you think that LSU is a team of destiny this year, with all the setbacks they have gone through? Do they have a legitimate chance of winning the CWS this year without any World Series experienced players on their team?
A:	John Manuel: I'm not a big believer in that kind of thing, but if you are, you can put that kind of "destiny" tag on several teams. SMS is here for the first time; Miami has been through injuries, the resignation of assistant coach Lazer Collazo, lineup changes, etc. No one else has had to go through what LSU has with Wally Pontiff, and Smoke Laval has guided the team through it beautifully. LSU has a great recruiting class coming in and really will lose just two major contributors for next year in Aaron Hill and Bo Pettit, so to me, LSU is here to win but more likely is getting experience for a title run in 2004. LSU and Miami are similar in that regard in my opinion and will enter 2004 as heavy favorites to return to Omaha with their current lineups full of freshmen and sophomores.

Q:	Chuck Nobriga from Manteca, California asks: John, Do you think the NCAA will ever go back to a round-robin format for the College World Series? What would be the advantages and disadvantages to the NCAA if they did? I suspect it's really all about television.
A:	John Manuel: Chuck, I think we have to wait and see how this format works before we can start worrying about other ones. I like the current format because it's the same format as the rest of the postseason. You play in a four-team double-elimination regional, then a best-of-three series super-regional, then go through the same format in Omaha. I like the symmetry and think it's a relatively fair way to decide a champion.

Q:	Stanford Jim from Palo Alto, CA asks: Well, 5 in a row for Stanford shows the quality of the players, the coaching, and the recruiting. Too bad this year's format wasn't in place for 2000 and 2001! In 2003, I'm worried that they don't have enough. The pitching depth just isn't deep enough for a successful run in Omaha. Can we look for anything other than Rice taking 2 out of 3 from Fullerton in the Championship Series...or will the fifth time be a charm? Regardless, it'll be ANOTHER great time with great fans and great baseball -- and if we cross paths, whiskey steaks on me!
A:	John Manuel: Mmmm, first Drover mention . . . . Oh, sorry. Stanford was definitely set up better for best-of-three series in 2000 and 2001, but Miami was just better in 2001, especially with how poorly Mike Gosling pitched that day . . . that was hard to watch after how well Gosling had pitched in his first start that year, against CS Fullerton. This Stanford team will have to bash its way to a title, and it's capable. I think Stanford has the best offense in Omaha, and if the park plays offensively then Stanford has a great chance. The Cardinal has won 2 games every trip to Omaha in this current streak, and doing that again this year will be a challenge, but I think they're up to it.

Q:	Stephen from Jax, FL asks: For the 2nd year in a row South Carolina has made it to the CWS. Do you think Jacksonville native Brian Buscher can lead his team back to the championship game again?
A:	John Manuel: he certainly has been the main offensive cog for the Gamecocks all year. If S.C. goes deep again, it will be because of pitching coach Jerry Meyers' staff. They have quality lefthanded pitching led by David Marchbanks, a strong bullpen with rubber-armed Aaron Rawl and senior Chris Hernandez, and clutch hitters like Buscher. That plus their experience is a good mix and makes for a very strong bracket with LSU, CSUF and Stanford.

Q:	Peter Friberg from San Diego, CA asks: What team is the biggest surprise entry, and what team is missing that you were certain you'd see here?
A:	John Manuel: Peter's always heavy into the chats. Thanks, Peter. Clearly, Southwest Missouri State is the Cinderella team, but with its senior-laden team, I wouldn't be shocked if SMS pulled off an upset. Still, it's hard to imagine SMS and all their eye black winning the whole thing. They remind me a bit of San Jose State from 2000, which quietly went 0-2 as a third seed that made it to Omaha, but the Bears have probably made a big impact for the program's future. Keith Guttin has built a consistent program that produces big leaguers (Jason Hart, Bill Mueller) and prospects (John Rheinecker, Ryan Howard) and consistently wins in the Missouri Valley Conference, having won the regular season two of the last three years.

Q:	Aric from Portland, Oregon asks: John, really enjoy your stuff. Had a couple questions as to Arizona State. Other than winning the Pac-10 outright how tough is it going to be for the Sun Devils or any other 50-win west coast team to get in a position for a national seed next year? And, how do you project them for next year? They have a good nucleus returning in Pedroia, Larish, and Buck.
A:	John Manuel: Aric, Arizona State and Texas should have been top eight national seeds over Auburn and Miami, but the 'Canes probably earned their seed by going on the road and beating Long Beach State in the season's final weekend. Arizona State's non-conference schedule and the RPI's inadequacy when it comes to the West are the two big problems. The non-conference teams ASU scheduled just had bad years. CS Northridge, BYU, San Diego State, Oklahoma are all solid programs that had down years, and playing those guys hurt ASU's RPI. The committee should have been more informed and known that the schedule was tougher than the RPI said, but ASU's best non-conference wins were two at Long Beach State and two against Notre Dame, which didn'ty have a great RPI. Maybe I'm forgetting some others, but to me, ASU was still clearly one of the top eight teams and had a better regular season than Miami or Auburn. It's a further shame they had to play at CSUF, but there Arizona State's lack of a difference-making pitcher was exposed, much like happened to Florida State. Fullerton has four or five guys like that and good pitching beat good hitting.

Q:	Adam Hunt from Mt. Pleasant, MI asks: As a native son of Texas (I was born there) I have always been a fan of the Longhorns. I was wondering who is the key player that can most help Huston Street, J.P Howell and Augie Garrido repeat as National Champions?
A:	John Manuel: Adam, I think Texas will need two players to really come forward, one in the lineup and a starter. The best bets there are juniors LF Eric Sultemeier and LHP Justin Simmons. Sultemeier bats cleanup at times and is a big RH bat, which the team needs with J.D. Reininger having a sophomore slump and Jeff Ontiveros gone to pro ball. Sultemeier has tools and can be very good as he was in the super-regional. Simmons hasn't been as good as he was last year, but he won here twice and will have to be good again if the 'Horns are going to repeat. It wouldn't surprise me if they did, but I favor Rice in that bracket.

Q:	none given from nowhere asks: do you expect sean colvin of sms to get boed by the nebraska fans for flipping over the on deck cirle with the red 'n' on it in the nebraska regional?
A:	John Manuel: I didn't know about that, but you're talking about Brooks Colvin, not the folk singer. I would guess the Omaha fans will be gracious, but the Nebraska fans (and they don't necessarily overlap) will not be. Omaha has great fans, though, and will cheer any underdog like SMS, especially one from the Missouri Valley Conference, where Creighton also plays.

Q:	Jeff Shald from Thorndale, Texas asks: What types of CWS history matter and what types don't? Clearly players who've been to Omaha should gain some advantage. But how far back does that effect go? How much difference does Texas' 30 trips make? Or LSU's 5 titles? I lean towards thinking that success in the last three years is all that really matters and the rest helps in recruiting but not on the field? What are your thoughts?
A:	John Manuel: Jeff, I happen to agree with you completely. I think it helps a lot if the players have been here, but the program's overall success means more to fans (and perhaps media) than to players. I think Texas' 2000 trip to the CWS helped a lot more last year than the previous 28 trips or other four titles, you know? No one in the program had anything to do with the rest of that history, but a lot of them had been there in 2000. I think experience will help the most with Miami, where Jim Morris has been here so often and can impart that to his young team; Rice, which has something to prove after last year's 0-2 showing; and South Carolina, which has relied on experience a lot this year to stretch the talent on a solid, but not spectacular, club.

Q:	Peter Friberg from San Diego asks: What has to happed for Miami to have a chance at another title?
A:	John Manuel: Their freshman talent has blossomed, and pitching coach J.D. Arteaga has coaxed some excellent outings out of a staff with pretty fringy stuff. Miami had 11 players drafted when it won it all in 2001; this year it had one, Jim Burt, in the 35th round. It's clearly not as talented as it was then or as experienced, but it's a dangerous team with J.D. Cockroft and Brandon Camardese giving the team quality innings, especially Cockroft, and Shawn Valdes-Fauli pitching very well out of the bullpen. Plus, now the 'Canes have George Huguet back. Miami has a swagger as well and plays with such confidence, and that's a big factor.

Q:	Charlie from Los Angeles asks: John, I can't help but look at the 8 teams in Omaha and how they got there and think how unfairy LBSU was treated. Do you agree?
A:	John Manuel: LBSU lost series head-to-head with Arizona State and Miami, so it may not have gotten a top eight seed over those two. It was more deserving than Auburn, but not more than Texas and ASU, which I think were treated even more harshly than the Dirtbags. Someone had to go to Stanford for a super-regional, you know? The Cardinal beat LBSU's two best guys straight up.

Q:	Willie Nelson from Austin, Texas asks: Was the ACC overrated this year? ---they had several big name players who just did not play well in Cape Cod last summer...yet they all put up huge numbers during the school year. ACC regular season champion and #1 Florida State's two top homerun guys in 2003, Richie (.235, 0 HR, 51 ABs) and McQuade (.204, 0 HR, 98 ABs) are two examples. It seems the ACC hasn't done very well against the rest of the country's elite when they match up with the neutral umpires of Regional play. (and they haven't won a College World Series championship since the fifties) Your thoughts, could it be coaching, or just hype?
A:	John Manuel: The ACC is over-rated, and we're one of the ones guilty of over-rating the league. There's just no other way to say it. The ACC's failure to get it done in Omaha is one thing, but going 0-6 in super-regional games is another. I don't think it's umpires. The perception in the league is that with some exceptions--very notably N.C. State this year, and to a lesser extent North Carolina--the league has a lot of soft players compared to the Big 12, Pac-10 and especially the SEC. Clemson has toughness but has had bad luck in Omaha and with getting its highly-drafted recruits on campus of late. Florida State seems cursed, and don't even get me started on Georgia Tech, which has been our preseason No. 1 twice the last three years and hasn't won a regional game either time. The ACC has more pro prospects than the SEC probably, and that's always going to get Baseball America's attention, but the ACC is a lot of hype when it comes to the postseason, and not a lot of results. The lack of a title since 1955 speaks for itself.

Moderator: John needs to head on over to the coach's press conferences (reportedly to be broadcast on ESPNews). He'll be back on Monday to chat again about the weekend games and we are efforting to get our fans a player chat -- so as always, keep checking BaseballAmerica.com for complete coverage of the College World Series.