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Jim Callis
September 21, 2001
Moderator: Jim Callis is Baseball America's executive editor and jack of all trades. Right now he's working on writing and editing our upcoming league Top 20 Prospects lists, which will begin to appear on the web on Monday. He says the next edition of Ask BA will be delayed until this evening while he works on that project. He'll be with us shortly, but start firing those questions in.
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Mark L. Peel from Arlington Heights, IL asks: It would appear that slotted draft bonusses are all but inevitable at this point; but I'm not too clear how that will work out. Foreign players will still sign as free agents; won't drafted players, seeing big bonusses awarded in the free market, increasingly take the J. D. Drew and Bobby Hill route, signing with indy league teams while waiting for their draft rights to expire?
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Jim Callis: The details will need to be worked out, but the union doesn't seem opposed to slotting draft bonuses a la the NBA (and theoretically diverting more money to union members, i.e. major leaguers). There also has been a lot of talk that foreign players will become part of the draft as well. In either case, for now independent league players are considered draft eligible if they haven't signed a pro contract with a major league team previously. There's no time period for their draft rights to expire as long as they keep getting drafted each year. If they weren't picked, then they'd become a nondrafted free agent. |
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Mark L. Peel from Arlington Heights, IL asks: The White Sox, with an Astro-nomical number of high ceiling pitching prospects, are reportedly interested in bringing back David Wells as a veteran anchor to their young staff if the price is right. What do you think: good plan, bad plan, or self-justification ("Mmmm! It may have looked like a lemon to you, but it was so sweet I just may have another!")?
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Jim Callis: I guess it all depends on the price. If Wells is cheap, why not. But I wouldn't give him a ton of money. So I'll say good plan if he's not expensive, though there certainly will be some self-justification involved as well. |
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Mark L. Peel from Arlington Heights, IL asks: I've heard the NFL has settled its labor dispute with the referees; hard lines have supposedly softened in the aftermath of the terrorist attacks. Do you think the odds of a baseball lockout have likewise diminished, or is that hoping for too much?
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Jim Callis: I think they've diminished. I can't see how the owners can possibly sell a lockout to the public now, and I don't think they have the stomach to try. My guess is we see a one-year extension of the status quo, then the sides will battle a year from now if they haven't reached a long-term agreement by then. |
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Sam Silvas from Claremont, Calif. asks: Now that school has started and draft picks have made their decisions about school or signing, how would you rate LSU's incoming class? Who do you think might make an immediate contribution? |
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Jim Callis: LSU and recruiting coordinator Turtle Thomas have a typically strong class. It's led by two early White Sox picks, third-round catcher Jonathan Zeringue and fourth-round outfielder Jay Mattox. Zeringue is a four-tool catcher who needs to polish his receiving skills, but he can hit. Mattox has lots of speed and is an exciting athlete. Among the freshman pitchers, Clint Bamert, a projectable righthander, might be a sleeper. |
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KG from Chicago asks: We've seen some great pitching prospect make their debuts this year in the majors (Beckett, Sabathia, Bud Smith, Oswalt, Duckworth, etc.) -- who are the great pitching prospects we'll see next year? Also do you think the Beavis have enough offense for a 2nd straight post-season run? |
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Jim Callis: I think Mark Prior could join the Cubs by midseason and contribute. Dennis Tankersley is close to joining the Padres. The Yankees still need to settle the end of their rotation, so perhaps Brandon Claussen will come up. Ty Howington made a lot of progress this year and the Reds need pitching, so he could get a look. Ryan Anderson and Jon Rauch will be back healthy again next year, though they'll have to crack loaded rotations. This year was a special year for pitching debuts, and I'll write my column about it in the upcoming issue. As for the TTL, Beavis fans will be very disappointed if they don't win their division. |
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Benji Orthen from Breyers Tower, Mass. asks: I'd like to applaud you for finally giving Ed Rogers the ink he deserves for courageously coming back from a horrendous first month and having a very respectable year for a 19 year old. |
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Jim Callis: Yeah, it sure was courageous that Ed didn't just quit on the spot. To clarify, I don't have anything against Ed Rogers. I just think it's irresponsible for anyone to compare him to Nomar Garciaparra or Derek Jeter. Hell, let's compare him to A-Rod, too. I've talked to scouts, and they like his glove and think his bat is iffy. Little-known fact: When Allan Simpson, Will Lingo and I were hashing out the 2001 Top 100 Prospects list, I rated Rogers higher than anyone. And he's got a little brother Omar (good bat, iffy glove) who's another middle-infield prospect for Orioles fans to monitor. |
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Steve from Tampa asks: What kind of sneak preview can you give us regarding a few of the top 20 prospect lists coming out soon? I'd love to know if Josh Hamilton, Toby Hall, Carl Crawford and Joe Kennedy made them from my Rays, but I'll take any info you give out! |
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Jim Callis: Had a quick phone call there but now I'm done. Hamilton didn't have enough plate appearances to qualify, but the other three guys all figure prominently on lists. Hall is No. 2 in the IL behind Adam Dunn; I'll make you wait on Crawford and Kennedy. |
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Ted from Delaware asks: It appeared that the Cubs top position prospects were slowed by injuries this year (Choi, Kelton, Hill). Looking ahead to the future, who do you think has the biggest upside and chance to make the biggest impact? Thanks! |
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Jim Callis: I think Hee Seop Choi has the biggest upside because of his considerable power. Bobby Hill could be their second baseman on Opening Day next year, though. David Kelton moved to the outfield, and may have a harder time cracking the lineup there than at third base. |
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Rick from Arlington, Texas asks: I know this won't be an "official" list, but who do you see as your top 10 prospects today? I would think that this shouldn't be hard as 6 of the 10 would seem to be gimmees-
Hamilton Prior Teixeria Betemit Blaylock and Beckett. Am I right? |
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Jim Callis: Yeah, all of those guys would probably make it, just thinking off the top of my head. Adam Dunn won't qualify, so he wouldn't. My other four would probably be Juan Cruz, Nick Neugebauer, Joe Maur and Sean Burroughs. Maybe Dennis Tankersley. I'm probably forgetting someone; I'm sure you guys will let me know! |
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Randy from Dallas asks: I know guys like Pena Teixeria and Blaylok are going to be very high on Texas' prospects lists, but are scouts still high on Kevin Mench? I know he had an off year, but do they factor in his wrist injury this spring? Is still considered a top prospect? |
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Jim Callis: Mench is still solid. He's all hitter and won't wow anyone with his other tools, but he can definitely hit. Wrist injuries have a habit of affecting a guy's swing and power, and scouts know that. |
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Andy from Madison asks: The Royals promoted SS Angel Berroa. What can you tell me about him...his numbers look better than I expected. |
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Jim Callis: Berroa was the key to the Johnny Damon deal for the Royals, who didn't have a pure shortstop prospect at the times. He's a good defender, who can run and sting the ball a little bit. His plate discipline is pretty atrocious and may hamper him in the majors. He could have more upside than Neifi Perez, though. |
Moderator: Jim apologizes for misspelling "Mauer." Typing too quick...
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Jason Barry from Edmond, Oklahoma asks: I have heard the Indians have a really good pitching prospect at Kinston and was Kinston Indians Pitcher of the Year in 6'7" Brian Tallet and he has a chance to be the Indians Minor League pitcher of the year. How do you see his future with the Indians -- Interested as he is from Oklahoma. |
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Jim Callis: I like Tallet. He's a tall lefty with command of three average to plus pitches. The Carolina League wasn't a terrible test for a guy who started big games at Louisiana State, including the finale of the 2000 CWS. It wouldn't surprise me if he reached Triple-A next year. |
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Andy from Madison asks: With Mike Rivera in Detroit now, what can we expect from him? Is he going to be the catcher in that organization, or is he stuck behind the others? Who could you compare him to? |
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Jim Callis: Rivera really came out of nowhere this year. Brandon Inge opened the year as Detroit's top prospect, but Rivera did far more offensively this year than Inge ever has as a pro. Rivera might be their true catcher of the future, though Inge will get first crack at the job. If all goes well, maybe Rivera could be a Javy Lopez-type catcher. |
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Andy from Madison asks: Is Brandon Claussen the next incarnation of Ted Lilly, Randy Keisler and the other young Yankee lefties that haven't turned out? If not, why? |
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Jim Callis: Claussen could be better because his stuff is better and he has developed more rapidly than Lilly and Keisler did. They're both three years older than he is. |
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Charlie F. from San Jose asks: What happened to Jason Hart this year? Was it that last year he was at Midland? Both he and Adam Piatt have followed MVP type years in Double-A with pretty poor seasons. Coincidence? |
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Jim Callis: Midland is a great hitter's park, but both guys performed well on the road in the Texas League. I think it's more coincidence than anything, though neither guy now projects as well as he did when he tore up the TL. |
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Andy from Madison asks: For some reason I really want to like Shin Soo Choo. Maybe it's the ready made chants for the fans to yell. Anyway, what can we expect from him? |
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Jim Callis: I like him too. Here's what Allan Simpson wrote when he ranked him second in the Arizona League in our upcoming issue (I'm only doing this for Choo; I'm not giving the whole issue away!):
Choo sizzled in the first half for the Mariners, hitting .358. He wound up batting only .302 overall, causing at least one manager to question his approach.
"Early on, he showed a lot of discipline at the plate," Nelson said. "But pitchers began to get him out by pounding him inside. He made a lot of adjustments in his stance as he began to press."
Managers were impressed with the all-around ability of the Korean, who starred as a pitcher at the 2000 World Junior Championship and later signed a $1.335 million bonus with Seattle. He adapted well to his new role as a full-time outfielder.
"He's a very exciting player to watch," Munoz said. "He hits for average and power, runs well and has an excellent arm. He also works very hard and adapted nicely to the change in culture."
"He plays with a lot of poise and confidence," White Sox manager Jerry Hairston said. "He'll be a big leaguer, no doubt."
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Bee Gee from SF asks: Anxiously awaiting your Top 20 list! As a preview, how do Kenny Baugh, Mario Ramos, Corwin Malone, Chris Narveson, Jimmy Gobble, and Jerome Williams fare? Do any project to be a #1 or #2 starter? Finally, how much has Austin Kearns' prospect status fallen given his injury plagued season? Thanks for your time. |
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Jim Callis: We're doing the league Top 20s, not the organization or overall lists. I did the Midwest League, and I'll say that Baugh would have ranked very high if he had enough innings to qualify. Great draft pick for the Tigers. Narveson was the best lefty in the league, though he got hurt in the Carolina League late in the year. Williams and Gobble may just be my two favorite unhyped pitching prospects in the minors. We ranked Williams No. 1 in the Giants system coming into the year, but I still don't think he gets as much notice as he deserves. |
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Jeff from Durham asks: Casey Kotchman 2001 v. Adrian Gonzalez 2000. Your assignment- Please discuss these two 1B and which might end up a better hitter. |
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Jim Callis: Great question. Gonzalez edged Justin Morneau for the top spot on my Midwest League list. But I'd take Kotchman over either, because I think he'll provide the best combination of power and average. |
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Pender Lee from Paris Lick, Texas asks: Can you give us a glimpse of the Red Sox top 10 list? Where do AA SS Freddie Sanchez, AAA slugger Juan Diaz, fireballer Seung Song and 3B Tony Blanco (the REAL Ed Rogers) fit into things and how does the Sox younger prospects compare to other teams' young players? |
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Jim Callis: The Sox system is not in good shape, and part of the reason is that they don't treat people well. If they hadn't alienated Mark Teixeira and his family, Teixeira would be their starting third baseman right now. John Manuel, like me a Red Sox fan who's pained by the current state of the club, worked up a very preliminary Top 30 the other day. (We don't begin official work on the Prospect Handbook for another month or so.) He had Blanco No. 1, followed by Song. Sanchez was No. 10 and Diaz was No. 17. He's not a toolsy prospect, but I'm intrigued by Kevin Youkilis. |
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Dave from Tucson, AZ asks: Who do you like among the playoff contenders for the remaining undecided playoff spots? |
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Jim Callis: The AL is settled and the Astros will win the NL Central. I'll take the Braves in the East, the Diamondbacks in the West and I'll take the local club and pick the Cubs for the wild card. |
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Hap Goyster from Krispy, NC asks: Will Calvin Pickering be playing in Japan next year (and are there pants ANYWHERE in Japan big enough for him)?
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Jim Callis: Japan does seem like a logical destination, doesn't it? I think the answer on the pants is no. Maybe he could play in one of those sumo thongs. |
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Peter Griffen from Quohog asks: The difference between the 2001 phillies and the 1999 Phillies offense is Doug Glanville. When he had his best year in 1999 the team scored a lot of runs, the last two years he has not been on base that much. What do you think the Phillies will do to get a high OBP player at the top of the order? Is the minor leagues going to help, or will that be what they try to get in the Scott Rolen trade upcoming this winter? |
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Jim Callis: I don't know if the Phillies will address this problem, because they've turned their leadoff spot to Jimmy Rollins, who's having a nice rookie year but isn't and never has been a great OBP guy. Marlon Byrd could be their center fielder, but he's not a Jamal Strong-type of OBP guy either. I agree they'll probably trade Scott Rolen, and I think they'll miss him. |
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Chetanna Onyekwelu from Baltimore, Maryland asks: Imagine this is 1990 and you have the 1st draft pick who would you select? Josh Beckett or Todd Van Poppel. Who will be better long term Dennis Tankersley or Jake Peavy and finally if you could select any guy in the minors right now for an expansion team who would you select? {No Josh Beckett} Thanks!!! |
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Jim Callis: Well Beckett would be 10, and that would be asking for a lot of projection, so I'd take Van Poppel. They were pretty even as high school seniors and received similar hype. I'd take Peavy over Tankersley because he's two years younger and has had similar success. I still reserve the right to change my mind on that when I do the Padres Top 30! Any guy in the minors? I'd probably take Mark Prior. If he doesn't count because he hasn't made his pro debut yet (which also rules out Mark Teixeira), then give me Sean Burroughs. Or maybe Hank Blalock. |
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Chad from Cincinnati asks: Where do you rank Denny Stark in a pitching rich Seattle minor league system. Please compare him with Wooten, Anderson, Piniero, Tomko, and Meche. Thanks |
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Jim Callis: Assuming the hurt guys regain complete health, I'd probably rank them Anderson, Pineiro, Meche, Stark, Tomko, Wooten. I like Brett Tomko and think he'll make a nice starter for someone if he escapes pitching-rich Seattle. Stark is throwing harder than ever this year, so I may be selling him a little short. |
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Mike Marinaro from Tampa, FL asks: As ³Baseball Americans,² we havenıt read much about Jung Bong this season. Impressively, he finished 3rd in wins, 4th in strikeouts, 4th in ERA, and 3rd in innings, in the Carolina League. Whatıs your opinion of Bongıs chances as an eventual No. 1 starter, and how does he compare to Adam Wainrwright, who I think is sensational? Thank you, and have a great weekend!
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Jim Callis: We had a big Jung Bong article early in the year. Just don't ask me which issue it's in. I like Wainwright more, but Bong is a solid guy. I wouldn't see him as a No. 1 guy though, maybe more of a No. 3. |
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Allen Speir from Victorville, CA asks: Hi Jim. I'm wondering how the Mariners' top ten prospects is going to look this year. What I mean is that with Ryan Anderson still pretty clearly a top prospect, but coming off an injury season, is he still #1? Or will someone like Rafael Soriano or Chris Snelling rise to the top? Someone else? Thank You. |
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Jim Callis: The Mariners system is loaded, so while I'm not worried about Anderson coming back from injury, I wouldn't call him a clear No. 1. Guys like Denny Stark and Ramon Vazquez in Triple-A, injured Antonio Perez and Jeff Heaverlo in Double-A, and Clint Nageotte, Chris Snelling, Rafael Soriano and Jamal Strong in Class A all will be in the mix near the top of that list. |
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Rob Gamble from San Francisco asks: What do you make of Juan Cruz's first four big-league starts? He certainly has done a superb job in his short time in Chicago, but is his inclusion in next year's staff out of Spring Training (at the expense of, say, Julian Tavarez) a sure thing? Finally, are his first four starts an indication of him being a truly special pitcher, or is it, for the lack of a better term, beginner's luck? Thanks! |
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Jim Callis: Well, I may be the biggest Juan Cruz backer who doesn't work for the Cubs. Aside from his stats, his stuff has looked electric in those four starts. He has command of three pretty nice pitches. I wouldn't say he's a sure thing for next year, but I like his chances a lot more than Tavarez. I figure Jon Leiber, Kerry Wood, Kevin Tapani and Jason Bere will be back next year, so there may be only one slot open. |
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Shane from Texas asks: Any chance Bobby Hill can win the starting job out of spring training? I simply don't care to see Eric Young resigned. |
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Jim Callis: The Cubs would be well served by saving money on Young and spending it elsewhere. I think Hill has a great chance to win that job. |
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Dan from Bloomington, IN asks: Go ahead, give it to me straight. How do you like the Mets' chances? |
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Jim Callis: It would be a great story and great for New York, but there's not enough time. |
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Sol from a mobile phone in Long Island asks: Any word on Josh Karp, the last top 10 pick yet to sign? |
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Jim Callis: Classes still haven't started at UCLA, but all has been quiet on the Karp front. I'm sure he'll sign, because top 10 picks almost always do. |
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Dan Urda from Langhorne, PA asks: At the end of the season, there is speculation that both scott rolen and ivan rodriguez will be traded by their respective teams. what would you think about a trade of rolen and lets say mike liberthal for pudge and hank blalock. Rolen and Pudge will both be big money guys and mike liberthal would be a good replacement for Pudge, while blalock would take rolens place in philly. The phils have a young pitching staff and despite his pitchers era as of late, i think a veteran catcher would not only provide an offensive spark, he would also handle the staff very well. Blalock is the risk, but if he is as good as everyone says he is, then he should be as good as or better than rolen. |
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Jim Callis: I can't see the Rangers doing that. If they did, Rolen would block off third base and their would be no place for Mark Teixeria to play (assuming Carlos Pena takes over at first base). Interesting thought, though. I'm sure the Phillies would jump on that in a second. |
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Ryan McTague from North Andover asks: Wilson Betemit really soared through the braves system this year making it to the majors although he did not play, do you think he fits in with the Braves plans next season considering Chipper did play a little outfield this season? If he does where would Betemit play, thirdbase or shortstop? |
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Jim Callis: The Braves aren't afraid to promote guys quickly, so that could happen. It would be interesting to see who they liked better at shortstop, Furcal or Betemit. Betemit has more power, so maybe he'd wind up at third base with Chipper Jones in left field. |
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I.M. Insane from The Ether asks: How far down the prospect list do you think Dernell Stenson will drop? His season seemed to be a total bust even though it was yet another year at AAA. Who would you put as the new Red Sox number 1 prospect? |
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Jim Callis: I've defended Stenson and thought the Red Sox underrated him the last two years, but he really stagnated in his third Triple-A season. I'd pick either Tony Blanco or Seung Song as their No. 1 guy. If I were working for another organization, I'd see if I could steal Stenson and maybe straighten him out. |
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Rich Stahl from Frederick, Md asks: Could you compare my long-term prospects to those of Adam Johnson and Rich Rundles?
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Jim Callis: If you really are Rich Stahl, I like Johnson better but I'll give you the nod over Rundles. Rundles throws mainly in the mid-80s and hasn't pitched above low Class A, so I want to see how his stuff holds up at higher levels. Rich, you need to stay healthy though. |
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John from St. Louis asks: Jim-
While I love these conversations and have great respect for you, I must say that I find it VERY annoying that you and others answer 3-4 Ed Rogers questions each chat (even if they are in jest). I am sure that there are many people with sincere questions that are not included in the chat because Ed Rogers comes up so often. Is it possible to have a moratorium on Ed Rogers questions for a while? |
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Jim Callis: Agreed. I actually haven't answered an Ed Rogers question before today in ages, but because he has cropped up in so many chats I just wanted to clarify my stance. |
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Dan Urda from Langhorne, PA asks: Is mike floyd any good or was drafting and signing him just a way to make sure gavin would sign. Does he have any potential himself. |
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Jim Callis: More of the latter, though he would have been South Carolina's hitter had he returned. |
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Eric from Los Angeles asks: Would you rank the GCL Dodgers' Victor Diaz among the top 10 prospects in the league? Could he be something special? |
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Jim Callis: Allan Simpson ranked him seventh. Diaz is compared to Carlos Baerga (the good version) but needs a position. |
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Jake from San Antonio asks: What do you think of the performance of Juan Cruz considering how inconsistent he was at West Tenn? |
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Jim Callis: I think he's fully healthy now and we're seeing the real deal. |
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Ben Delbanco from New York, NY asks: Hey Jim, good to see you chatting. Baseball is a really great way to temporarily keep the mind off of more pressing matters. In any case, can you give us an update on the multitude of injuries in the Yankees system. It seems like just about the whole Staten Island team went down. Also, what's the take on Drew Henson after his less than successful year at AAA?
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Jim Callis: I don't have the time to get into all the injuries here (that's Josh Boyd's specialty), but I still like Drew Henson. It was his first full year. I think he'll make great strides in 2002 and be the Yankees' third baseman in 2003. |
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Tribefan from Burlington, NC asks: The Indians had 2 players make league top ten lists last year (CC Sabathia and Corey Smith). Do you think this year the Indians will have more or less? How does their overall minor league condition this year compare to the end of last year? |
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Jim Callis: They should have more and they're a lot better off. |
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joe from philly asks: what is the future for eric valent? he has nothing left to prove in the minors but yet it doesn't seem like he's going to get much of a chance with the phillies either. |
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Jim Callis: I think the Phillies are looking at a long-term outfield of Bobby Abreu, Pat Burrell and Marlon Byrd. Valent can't play center, and he won't supplant Abreu or Burrell on the corners. |
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Sean from Grand Rapids, MI asks: Juan Gonzalez put up some huge numbers for the Tiger's Rookie ball and Short-season teams. What do scouts have to say about him? |
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Jim Callis: Solid tools, very versatile. |
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Shane from Austin asks: Where will Nic Jackson end up next season, and does he rank in the Cubs top 10? |
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Jim Callis: He'll probably start in Double-A and my quick reaction is that he fits in the 10-20 range. |
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Tom Servo from St. Paul, MN asks: Of the Twins top hitting prospects (Joe Mauer, Michael Cuddyer, Michael Restovich, and Justin Morneau) who do you think has the brightest future in the Major Leagues? |
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Jim Callis: I'll pick Mauer, but Morneau and Cuddyer are close. Restovich ain't bad, either. |
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Dexter Stew from Kreme City, VA asks: If you had to pick one, who would it be -- Ken Harvey or Justin Morneau? |
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Jim Callis: Morneau. |
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Oleg from Chicago asks: I like the idea of hitting green rookies second in the order. I saw the Reds do it with Adam Dunn against the Cubs. I think the Cubs would be well-served to do that woith Corey Patterson. My theory is that if you have a lead-off hitter getting on base, with Sammy hitting behind him, he would see a lot of fastballs, and maybe learn to lay off the breaking ball out of the zone. Any thoughts? |
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Jim Callis: I like your way of thinking. Not a bad idea at all. |
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Groundskeeper Willy from Springfield asks: Does Xavier Nady have what it takes to play second base in the majors? To some the idea seems ludicrous, but when you look at some of the stiff bodied "unnatural" types who man the position, it could be an excellent way to get a masher in the middle infield.
Up Scotland! |
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Jim Callis: Got to love "The Simpsons." I think the Padres will explore this as soon as Nady is completely healthy. He can certainly hit but they don't really need another corner infielder. |
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John from Eau Claire, WI asks: What is your evaluation of Dean Taylor's job of stocking the brewer farm system in his two years there? This seems to be very important since the major league aspect has a ways to go and they will get another high draft spot again next year (7th or 8th). |
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Jim Callis: They're better than they were, but they still have a long ways to go to have a deep system. |
Moderator: OK, that's all folks.
Thanks for your time Jim, and thanks to all of you for logging on to baseballamerica.com. Check back next Friday -- same BA time, same BA site.
Also, log on all next week and some of the week after for our league Top 20 prospects lists.
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