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Tools vs. Performance
One of the major developments of recent years is the growing importance of sophisticated statistical analysis in baseball’s front offices. As you’ll also read, though, it’s far from a cut-and-dried question in the minds of many in the game.
In an effort to frame the discussion, we try here to judge the factors teams weigh in their baseball decisions. At one end of the spectrum are organizations that emphasize tools, the raw physical skills that scouts say are vital to success. This approach descends from many of the views of Branch Rickey, focusing on athleticism and the value of traditional scouting. In the current era it’s clear the Braves’ influence is pervasive, not only in the way other organizations copy their high-risk, high-reward approach but in the spread of former Braves executives into other front offices.
At the other end of the spectrum are those who use sabermetrics to help them in their decisions. This approach is viewed as lower risk, with lower reward often the tradeoff. Teams that give weight to statistical analysis also tend to focus more on refined baseball skills as much as tools, and their amateur drafts tend to emphasize college players over untested high schoolers. The clear leader on this side of the spectrum is Oakland, with former general manager Sandy Alderson considered the leader in bringing this approach into the mainstream.
Here we break all 30 organizations into one of five categories in the spectrum. It’s clear from our analysis that while sabermetrics is gaining acceptance in front offices, most teams still prefer a more traditional approach to player evaluation and development. It’s important to note that even when we place teams at one of the extremes, we aren’t saying they exclude the other approach from their decisions. Teams are listed alphabetically within each group.
TOOLS
These teams emphasize raw physical skills above all else
Atlanta Braves
With talented executives and scouts and plenty of money, the Braves rode this approach to a decade of success.
Florida Marlins
This group brought its tools-first approach from Montreal, but they won’t invest to keep the best players around.
Los Angeles Dodgers
GM Dan Evans has returned the Dodgers to their scouting roots, the foundation of a formerly model organization.
Tampa Bay Devil Rays
GM Chuck LaMar brought the Braves approach with him; unfortunately the Rays have little margin for error.
Kansas City Royals
See Devil Rays; a high-risk, high-reward approach isn’t a good idea for a franchise operating on a shoestring.
BLEND/TOOLS
These teams focus on raw physical skills but use statistics in their evaluations
Baltimore Orioles
It’s not clear what direction the new administration will go in, but it’s bound to work better than the old one.
Chicago Cubs
They built an enviable farm system by finding talented players who have had success, most notably Mark Prior.
Detroit Tigers
GM Dave Dombrowski is a believer in the old-school approach; he just needs more time to incorporate it.
Houston Astros
The Astros like to draft college seniors, but they develop more tools players, especially those from Venezuela.
Milwaukee Brewers
Another new administration taking over, but Doug Melvin’s track record indicates a preference for tools.
Minnesota Twins
Twins have always liked to draft and develop talent and plug it into their big league lineup, and it paid off last year.
Montreal Expos
Organization has been schizophrenic under MLB ownership, but tools still dominate from big leagues on down.
New York Mets
Mets have relied on high-ceiling players for years, with mixed results, and have occasional Ty Wiggintons thrown in.
Philadelphia Phillies
Assistant GM Mike Arbuckle sets the tone with a progressive approach that still relies on nuts-and-bolts scouting.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Pirates used to be as tools-heavy as any organization, but GM Dave Littlefield has tempered the approach a bit.
St. Louis Cardinals
GM Walt Jocketty is a rare A’s alum who does not rely heavily on statistical evaluation.
Seattle Mariners
Any organization with Pat Gillick at the helm will never neglect creative, old-fashioned scouting.
BLEND
These teams use statistics and physical skills in equal measure when evaluating players
Anaheim Angels
David Eckstein is the prototype no-tools guy who can play the game, but the Angels have plenty of talent as well.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona has developed players like Erubiel Durazo, but GM Joe Garagiola Jr. says stats can be taken too far.
Chicago White Sox
GM Kenny Williams values his scouts but uses other evaluation methods as well, including film study.
Cleveland Indians
Trades of the last year illustrate GM Mark Shapiro’s range, bringing in players from Brandon Phillips to Travis Hafner.
Colorado Rockies
Rockies have tried a little bit of everything to find a consistent formula for winning in Denver; they’re still looking.
San Francisco Giants
World Series trip brought attention to GM Brian Sabean’s knack for blending different types of players into a winner.
BLEND/PERFORMANCE
These teams use physical skills in their evaluations but rely more on statistics
Cincinnati Reds
Brandon Larson will be their Opening Day third baseman after most organizations would have given up on him.
New York Yankees
Incorporating an emphasis on on-base with their traditional scouting structure spurred their recent run of success.
San Diego Padres
If you wonder how progressive the Padres are, look at their extensive scouting of independent leagues.
PERFORMANCE
These teams emphasize statistics above all else
Boston Red Sox
They couldn’t get Billy Beane, so they got the starter kit in Theo Epstein—advised by none other than Bill James.
Oakland Athletics
The alpha and omega for sabermatricians, they use numbers and formulas they won’t even talk about publicly.
Texas Rangers
Brought in Grady Fuson, one of the key architects of the A’s current success, as heir apparent to GM John Hart.
Toronto Blue Jays
At other end of the spectrum two years ago, the Jays have been remade by GM J.P. Ricciardi, another A’s alum.
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