Draft Chat With Jim Callis
I can't promise that I won't take
draft-related phone calls during this chat, but let's see how many
questions we can bang out. And while the header on this chat says "Draft
and Prospects," my focus is on the former . . .
Let's kick this chat off early, in case my
phone starts ringing. Maybe we can even break a signing via the chat
room, if we're lucky.
Jared (Las Vegas): should the astros have went after Virant instead of overspending on ruiz?
We had Virant ranked ahead of Ruiz, but
teams love who they love and a lot of scouts really liked Ruiz' bat.
Virant is more of a projection than a finished product right now, though
I could easily see him becoming a first-rounder after three years at
Boris (London): Any idea what Jays signed Will DuPont for? Couldn't have been much given how Borucki got ocer $400K
DuPont is an athletic but raw high school
infielder from Missouri, signed in the 16th round. Wouldn't have been
more than $105k, or else the Jays would be forfeiting a first-round pick
Jason (Raleigh): Will Nats ultimately get Giolito signed in your opinion?
I'm just guessing, have no secret insight
here, but I say yes. Adam Kilgore had a report that the Nationals won't
pay draft tax by exceeding their pool, and I'm sure the team wants to
avoid that. But they can go to $3 million if they'll pay tax, and to me
that seems like a fair compromise between what he would have made if
healthy and the current risk involved with his elbow.
Brian (Alexandria, VA): Thanks for answering my most-least likely to sign question.
Quick 'yes/no' Giolito questions.
Does he sign? Do Nats pay penalty by exceeding their pool? Do Nats give up any picks by really exceeding their pool?
To follow up on the last question: Yes (signs), yes (tax), no (picks).
Bear with me . . . phone calls . . .
@Jaypers413 (IL): Jim, could you rank the remaining six first rounders from most likely to sign to least likely? Thanks.
Back now, sorry about the delay, but also
expecting another call. Most to least likely: Shaffer, Gausman, Hensley,
Giolito, Heaney, Appel.
Phone again . . .
OK, I'm back now. Sorry about that . . .
Chris (At Work): I'd love to mock the multitude
of "Will my team be signing the guy they drafted early and haven't
signed yet?" questions you're going to get, but... Will the Mets be
signing 2nd rounder Teddy Stankiewicz?
Unsure on that one. Just had a source tell
me he was willing to sign for slot ($680,400), told the Mets that before
the draft, but they haven't gotten there yet. He could wind up at
Seminole (Okla.) JC.
Warren (New London): Did any of the scouts who told you Bundy was better than
Profar apologize after the Futures Game?
Ha! You can't base anything on one inning
of work. That said, I love Profar and he'd get my vote as the best
prospect in baseball.
Jim (WV): Jim, Thanks for having this chat.
What's sticking point in the Orioles' negotiations with Gausman?
I think both sides are just playing chicken
with each other. Orioles are trying to sign him for as little as
possible, while the Gausman camp is trying to turn his
sophomore-eligible status into extra leverage. I really will be
surprised if he doesn't sign for something around his $4.2 million pick
@Jaypers413 (IL): Which player's bonus exceeded your wildest expectations, if anyone?
Rio Ruiz getting $1.85 million in the fourth round from the Astros, after he missed much of the spring.
Grant (Chicago): Is Rhett Wiseman officially a scratch?
Yes. Cubs would lose a first-round pick if
they gave him $123k, and that won't come close to luring him away from
his Vanderbilt commitment.
Chris (Los Angeles, CA): Any word on the negotiations between Oakland and Kyle Twomey?
Nothing specific, though the guess here is
that the Athletics get him and second-rounder Nolan Sanburn done. I
think a lot of teams will spend today trying to avoid paying the draft
tax, then give in tomorrow if that's what it takes to sign a guy.
Ian (PA): Does Mark Appel lose all leverage by
going back to school? And is there any reason to think that teams at
the top of the draft wouldn't follow the Astros model of take a
reasonable 1-1 talent but one under slot to spread the bonus money out
because there doesn't seem to be a clear 1-1 next season, including
Not all leverage. Fellow Boras Corp.
advisee Luke Hochevar reneged on a $2.98 million bonus in 2005, went to
independent ball rather than return for his senior year at Tennessee,
and got a $5.25 million big league contract. On the flip side, it's hard
to imagine Appel turning down a team next year and re-entering the
draft again in 2014. I think other teams will try to follow the Astros'
model. Though the great thing for the Astros is that Carlos Correa was a
legit No. 1 overall pick, not a money-saver of lesser talent. Houston
was able to discount him because he would have gone sixth or seventh if
he didn't go first. Great scenario for the Astros.
Bill (Bozeman): Anything about the Omaha experience strike you this summer in year two of TDA?
Still love Omaha as much as ever, and TD
Ameritrade is a great place to watch a game. That said, I miss
Rosenblatt and it seems impossible to hit the ball out of TDA from gap
laxtonto (Texas): How much of a surprise is
Gallo been with the AZL Rangers? I know it is a small sample size but
the kid is getting on base WAY more than people expected. The power is
there, but the OBP skills are a surprise.
AZL stats mean next to nothing, especially just 17 games' worth of AB. But it's heartening to see 8 HR and 20 BB in 17 games.
Alex (Miami, FL): Very saddened and angry to read about your Heaney report this morning. Why did Miami do this??! Argh!
I think the Marlins play it as tough as
anyone in negotiations, trying to save every dollar possible, then
expect bygones to be bygones once the player signs. But if that approach
costs you a first-round pick, that's a problem. How do you go nuts on
free agents in the offseason and open a new ballpark, then screw up your
Bill (Bozeman): Can I spill over into college baseball and ask if Ray Tanner's move into the AD's office surprised you?
Yes, though I don't follow college baseball
as closely as Aaron Fitt or John Manuel. Then again, not that there was
much more for Ray to accomplish as a coach, and Chad Holbrook would
have been at or near the top of head-coaching candidates in college
baseball. Don't get me started on how I tried to get my alma mater
(Georgia) to hire Tanner in 1996 . . .
Jared (Texas): Do the Astros get a discount on Preston Tucker, and will 450-500k be enough to pull Hinojosa away from Texas?
I'm not sure why Tucker hasn't signed yet,
but remember as a college senior with no eligibility left, the deadline
doesn't apply for him. No chance to sign Hinojosa. Not sure even Rio
Ruiz money ($1.85 million) would have gotten Hinojosa done.
Jeff (South Carolina): Whats the latest on Appel signing?
Nothing new. Pirates still can pay him
$3,837,575 without giving up a first-round pick, and that number could
change based on what they do with their fourth- and eight-rounders. I
don't believe Pittsburgh will forfeit a pick. The $3.8 million is less
than what Appel anticipated, but I'd take it rather than re-enter the
2013 draft. There have been several reports that he won't. We'll see.
Steve (Wilmington): It looks like the Phils are
going to let 2nd Rounder Alec Rash get away...yet they had already
created just under 200k in pool savings. Do they get anybody else
signed by the deadline?
I think they'll sign a few later-rounders. Agree that Rash won't happen.
buzz (Atlanta): Will Brandon Thomas and Buck Farmer be playing at Tech next year?
Farmer, yes. I'm not sure what's going on with Thomas, a fourth-round pick of the Pirates. That one is a mystery to me.
ttnorm (CT): Who gets the tax $$$?
It gets redistributed among all the teams that didn't exceed their bonus pools.
Colin (Cochrane): Assuming Appel doesn't sign, where would he rank next year?
Can he really expect to sign for more next year? P.S. I have you 1.1 on my board. Great work as always.
He'd be the favorite to go No. 1 overall
next year right now, but he'd have less leverage. If he went 1-1, he'd
get more than the $3.8 million than the Pirates can pay him without
giving up a first-round pick. ... Thanks for the kind words, but I still
want full pick value.
Brian (Chicago): Heaney is more likely to sign than Appel? Does that mean your 54% feel that Appel will sign has decreased?
Yes, I still think it makes sense for the
Marlins and Heaney to bridge their gap. And that's a smaller gap than
between what the Pirates can pay Appel without losing a first-rounder
and what Appel could have gotten had he gone 1-1.
Ike (Detroit): Nick Castellanos starting in RF
for Erie this evening. With Caberer-Fielder-Victor Martinez all signed
through 2014, is this the right move to get Nick's bat into the lineup?
When Castellanos is ready, Cabrera needs to stop masquerading as a third baseman.
Ittox (Puerto Rico): Long term, Francisco Lindor or Javier Baez?
Edge to Lindor because I have no doubts that he's a shortstop.
Brandon (Fayetteville, AR): Why would Stankiwecz go to JC over Arkansas where he signed?
To be eligible for the 2013 draft.
Itto (Puerto Rico): Will BA release a top 50 Midseason prospect list including this year draft and the international signings?
No, but I'll address where the top guys would have fit into the Top 50 in Monday's Ask BA column.
Colby (Arkansas): D'Vone McClure, Razorback or Indian after tomorrow?
Indian. I believe he'll sign.
Sorry for the rough start to the chat with
all of the interruptions, but I hope I sated your draft thirst, at least
temporarily. Will be fun to see how it plays out tomorrow.