| Q: | Chris from Milwaukee asks: Can you comment on the Brewers draft so far? I guess I don't understand Matt LaPorta going that high in the draft. |
| A: | John Manuel: LaPorta is a curious pick; I talked to the area scout and he raves about the makeup and thinks he can play LF. If he can, it's clearly a top 15 bat, so it could work. I didn't think it was a great pick but that frankly means nothing compared to Jack Zduriencik. |
| Q: | Luke from Des Moines asks: With Rick Porcello, and to a greater extent Matt Harvey, slipping in the draft, what are the chances of UNC getting one or both of them? Also, what about Jack McGeary (Stanford), and Greg Peavey, Tanner Robles, Garrett Nash (Oregon State)? Thanks, keep up the great work! |
| A: | John Manuel: The Tar Heels are in good shape; Porcello and Harvey are asking for a lot of money . . . I think both could end up at UNC and if I had to pick one with the better chance, I'd say Porcello. Nash probbaly will sign where he was picked (fourth round). Peavey and Robles are tougher calls, I have thought Peavey was going to college for a while and Robles might be headed that way now too. McGeary, well, Stanford needs him, and i hope they get him. For me it's weird to see Stanford struggle. The next Ryan Garko or Chris O'Riordan or Carlos Quentin or John Hudgins needs to step forward. Sorry but I guess I'm a Cardinal apologist. |
| Q: | Mike Marinaro from Tampa, FL asks: Did the Yankees get the steal of draft nabbing Brackman at #30? |
| A: | John Manuel: he makes sense for them as a high-risk, high-reward pick, but I wouldn't call him a steal. I mean, he has ceiling, but he topped out at 87 in his last start and was skipped by a team that needed him for two key starts. I would want to see more competitiveness out of him to be sold that he will fulfill his vast potential. If any organization can bring it out, though, it's the Yankees, because they demand competitiveness and they can coach pitchers (see Contreras, Nardi). |
| Q: | Kevin from San Diego asks: Down here in San Diego we are up in arms. This was seemingly the year to completely restock our system. Instead of mixing in some high ceiling talent (with 8 of the 1st 87) we picked a bunch of guys who are sure bets to help their teams win Northwest and Arizona league titles, but will never produce above A-ball. I mean, c'mon, Brad Chalk, Cory Luebke??!! What is wrong with these guys? It's no wonder they NEVER produce impact players. |
| A: | John Manuel: Great questions everyone, keep 'em rolling and thanks for being patient. John Manuel: Kevin I was disappointed in some ways by the Padres' low-ceiling approach, but when I looked deeper, I thought they did OK. Drew Cumberland's hitting tool is in question, for Padres fans I hope he's not another Drew Meyer (another middle infielder who couldn't hit that Grady Fuson liked). If you're going to take mostly college guys, they took some good ones--Kulbacki can really, really hit, and I love Canham and Sogard. Nick Schmidt is a typical Fuson pick, LHP with pitchability, and Grady's track record remains pretty good. They diversified more than I thought at first glance with Cumberland and Toledo, a good idea. |
| Q: | Chris from Pittsburgh asks: My offensively-challenged Pirates took pitchers in the first and second round and do not seem to have anyone in their first six picks with any real power potential. Can you offer any good news on their draft so far that will keep me from becoming an Indians fan? Please. |
| A: | John Manuel: Not a huge Daniel Moskos fan; he's good but at No. 4 overall, I just thought that was a bit of a reach, and I'm surprised the Pirates went to a pitcher. Man up and draft Wieters and sign him; that would have been a huge shot in the arm to the organization IMO. The rest of their picks so far don't do a ton for me, though I ranked Duke Welker ahead of Casey Weathers last summer in the Alaska League. I was wrong, it would appear . . . |
| Q: | Ron from Dayton, Ohio asks: Like every fan of every other team, I am going to ask a question you will hear a lot :). But what was your take on the Reds picks. In particular, Kyle Lotzkar and Todd Frazier? Also, what are your thoughts on Mesoraco. How does his potential compare to Wieters (impact in the bigs) and other recently drafted catchers in the past 5 or 10 years? He seems to have the entire package. |
| A: | John Manuel: I'm really liking the way this draft is shaping up. Mesoraco at 15 is pretty darn good; I'm a Lotzkar fan, love the projectable Canadian power righty, he's also young and has now stuff. Soto, Frazier and Cozart all were guys we were hearing could go in the second round range and they got them all. Good early returns in Cincinnati. |
| Q: | Bryan from Work asks: How much will it cost the Yanks to sign Brackman? Is this another Drew Henson type bust waiting to happen? |
| A: | John Manuel: He's not Henson; he wasn't as good at his other sport, for one, and he played college baseball and gave up hoops this spring. That said, he is like Henson in that he's much more projection than present stuff. The odds of him becoming all he can be are long. In terms of bonus, Boras wasn't going there last night on or off the record, but you can spread it out over five years and the Yankees can afford it. |
Moderator: One more quick pause . . . sorry
| Q: | Andrew from New York asks: What do you think of the three highschool bats the Red Sox have taken, if they sign how much of an impact will they make? |
| A: | John Manuel: Boston got Middlebrooks late, when we thought he could go at the back of the first round. If they sign him, that could be huge. I'm a big Ryan Dent guy, love athletes with juice like that, and then I wish I knew a bit more about Morris but he's a power-and-patience guy who fits the organization's philosophies. Dent may be the biggest deal in here, he could be a SS, 2B or even CF and athletes are always welcome there. |
| Q: | Mike from Syracuse, NY asks: Who do you think has had the best draft so far? The Rangers have accumulated a number of quality arms, IMO. |
| A: | John Manuel: I like what the Reds have done but agree the Rangers have been very solid so far. I'm a big Mike Main guy and Blake Beavan at 17 was very solid. They added arms and athletes so far, a draft they needed to go well is off to a good start. I have not been on the Toronto tip for a while, but in terms of first days, I thought they had the best one--diverse, premium positions, no real reaches, just thought it was an excellent day. |
| Q: | John from left field asks: WOW the O's got Wieter. And they say they can sign him. Is this as good as it looks to be for Birds fans? What becomes of Brandon Snyder? Think he can hit well enogh to move to first? |
| A: | John Manuel: Snyder moves to 1B or even LF; he's an athletic bat and not the catcher Wieters is. If Wieters signs, this is huge for the O's and I like taking Bascom and Arrieta where they did. Significant upside potential for the O's. |
| Q: | Jared from St. Louis asks: Pete Kozma at 18? Couldn't we have gotten him at 36? Also, based on your scouting reports seems like the Cards picked up some good arms in the supp. and 2nd round. Your thoughts? Will they get Russell signed? |
| A: | John Manuel: Au contrare . . . I like Kozma at 18 a lot, he's a HS bat who can stay at SS, and he makes sense at 18, you could make the case that he's better than Kevin Ahrens who went at 16, and I think it was a good pick. They took very interesting college arms, from Mortensen to Eager to Kopp and Todd. Eager and Todd are probably relievers, and Mortensen to me is the big key. He's got great stuff at times, sometimes three plus pitches, but he also had a 4.00 ERA for Gonzaga this year, that is hard to get past sometimes. At times I think I like him as a prospect too much, but he's a personal fave. IF they sign Russell, I'll be surprised, he's a 3rd or 4th round talent consensus with first-round demands and the chance to go back to Texas and try to get out of a regional, which the Longhorns haven't done in two years. I see him going back, just a hunch. |
| Q: | Nate from Washington DC asks: Did Logan White and the Dodgers over-draft their 1st 3 picks? It seems like Withrow, Adkins, and Watt would have all been there later on. Thanks for the great work |
| A: | John Manuel: Watt is interesting; I did our Calif. reports and couldn't find a scout who really liked him, but he is lefthanded and has hit 91 fairly regularly, if not better, so there's something there. Logan White knows pitching, but for me that is a reach. Withrow and Adkins make sense--Adkins can really pitch and there weren't many lefties left, if you wanted one you had to reach a bit. And the Dodgers did with him and Watt. Then Withrow might have gone 25 to the White Sox, his stock had risen late so no, I wouldn't say he's a reach. But I do think Watt is a bit. |
| Q: | Greg from Toronto asks: I really don’t understand the Brett Cecil pick by the Blue Jays. He seems more of a LOOGY than a closer or starter. |
| A: | John Manuel: No, you haven't read the reports right then, Greg. This guy's low 90s with a plus-plus slider at times, and he's shown some feel for changing speeds. If he doesn't start, he will move quickly as a lefty who can get RH hitters out thanks to the plus slider. He's better than a specialist. |
| Q: | Warren from Lewisburg, PA asks: Baseball America has compared Jason Heyward to Fred McGriff, Willie McCovey and Frank Thomas. In addition, it sounds like he has enough speed to play the outfield, possibly even center field. Why wouldn't a guy like that go higher than the 14th pick? He sounds like the best player in the draft to me. |
| A: | John Manuel: I also think he was the best player in the draft to Atlanta, after Price. They really liked him. HE's a tougher guy to evaluate because of his caliber of competition, but to me the athleticism, baseball desire and tools make him a perfect Atlanta pick. Of course there's a chance he becomes George Lombard, but the Braves are pretty fair at player development, not just scouting, and they have given PD something to work with here. I'm with you, getting him at 14 is a nice, nice value. |
| Q: | steve from scotia asks: jim what do you think of the mets draft i love the idea of young cheap relievers being in the mets bullpen the next few years |
| A: | John Manuel: Kunz is a great pick, he can move quickly and gets LH hitters out with his changeup and slider. I don't think they took all relievers, Vinyard and Moviel have a chance to start, but I'm not a Rustich fan, the guy doesn't throw strikes and still hasn't gotten over that finger issue that bothered him last year. He has 3 plus pitches at times, but he lacks pitchability. The rest of their slate hasn't excited me frankly. |
| Q: | Rob from Ann Arbor, MI asks: What are the odds that the Tigers sign both Rick Porcello and Casey Crosby? If they do sign both of them, how would you rate their draft so far? |
| A: | John Manuel: I think they'll get one of them; Crosby almost seems like insurance for in case Porcello doesn't sign. It's early of course, but I don't know that Porcello's going to sign. I'm hearing $10 million bonus numbers, at least $7 million, and it's easier to sell Andrew Miller at $7 million when he's pitching in Omaha than to sell an owner on a high school kid from Jersey. If they sign Porcello, the Tigers probably had the best draft, getting a No. 4 talent at 27? That would be very, very impressive. |
| Q: | Greg from Toronto asks: Keith Law has stated that Arencibia is a 3rd string catcher in the big leagues because he questions his bat. In you opinion is there any doubt in his bat? Was he a solid pick at #21? |
| A: | John Manuel: Our reports on Arencibia are better than that; people loved him last summer with Team USA. He has had back issues; that's a concern, no doubt. But people love the bat, big righthanded power, he might have been a bit of a reach at 21 but not too significant in my opinion. |
| Q: | Craig from vancouver asks: Thanks for taking my question. So when a team takes a player like McGeary right out of the gate like the Nats did this morning, is it safe to think that they had a chat with him last night and are pretty sure what it will take to sign him? |
| A: | John Manuel: Yes, that's a safe assumption that they spoke, but it's not a safe assumption that he'll sign. They should have an idea of what it takes but might hope that come August, Jack starts looking at textbooks and changes his mind. |
| Q: | jay from oakland asks: how did the bay area teams do? |
| A: | John Manuel: I like both teams' picks to an extent. The Giants stuck to what they know, and I like Alderson and Bumgarner a lot. Fairley is an intriguing choice for a team that has had little success with such players, but they have to try to develop some of their own hitters. Their supplemental guys seem like reaches, esp. Jackson Williams, not to single him out, Nick Noonan can really hit and might move quickly and I like that pick a bit better. Their second day's shaping up well, I like Daniel Turpen, Kyle Nicholson and Michael Ambort as at least solid organizational soldiers. |
| Q: | Steve from Las Vegas asks: Justin Jackson went 45th to Toronto...scouts opinions on this kid are all over the place...does Toronto think they got a bargain there, and who do you guys think he compares to if he reaches his potential? |
| A: | John Manuel: Alan Matthews loves Jackson and has staked part of his reputation on him . . . he believes in the bat and loves the glove and the dirtbag mentality of the young man. I thought he was a nice pick at 45, good guy to take a chance on, one of the best HS middle IFs in the draft. |
| Q: | Eric H. from Bonn Germany asks: Hi guys.... in looking at the Nationals draft and looking at the top four specifically - Detwiler, Smoker, Burgess, and Zimmerman - in terms of upside talent how would you rank them next to what's in the system already? How would Colton Williams and Balester compare to the three pitchers taken this year and for non-pitchers how would you compare Burgess to Marrero (both probably RF)? Thanks in advance! |
| A: | John Manuel: Liked the Nats' first day, those four guys are right there and should be instant Top 10 guys. I like Balester more than most and definitely would see him as still close to if not at the top of the org's prospect list. Burgess is a high-risk, high-reward guy but at one time he was the top HS hitter in this draft class; to get him where they got him is impressive. The talent is there; unlocking it doesn't sound like it will be easy. Nice job by the Nats; guten morgen to you in Bonn. |
| Q: | Fred from Mosquito Falls asks: Who should end up as a better catcher for their career, Mesoraco or Romine? Who will stay behind the dish longer, and who's ceiling is really higher? |
| A: | John Manuel: Mesoraco is the clear consensus here; Romine trailed d'Arnaud in California for most scouts. I say Mesoraco to all your questions. |
| Q: | Steve from Las Vegas asks: What can you tell me about the kid the White Sox picked in the First Round? I know I've read pre-draft reports and I sure don't remember him being in the 1st round projections anywhere, Was he a reach after Texas took Michael Main? |
| A: | John Manuel: I'm an Aaron Poreda fan, love power LHPs who work off the fastball. Needs slightly more control, better breaking ball, but I'm a fan and don't consider him a reach. |
| Q: | Steve from Las Vegas asks: What was the most surprising pick in the draft so far? Who jumped the highest fell the most (for non-boras reasons) |
| A: | John Manuel: No question Ben Revere . . . No. 135 on our draft board and No. 28 pick overall. I know the Twins love their scouts and trust him, but as Jim Callis would say, I don't love that profile, the speed guy slap hitter, and 5-foot-9, 152 pounds, hard to look at that and say "first rounder." All that said, Mike Radcliff knows more about scouting than me, you, Jim and everyone else on the planet, virtually. I'll defer. |
| Q: | Jared from Chicago asks: I was curious about the Cubs 2nd round pick Josh Donaldson, if the Cubs were going to take a catcher with that pick I would have preferred Mitch Canham but maybe I'm biased because I have seen Canham play and not Donaldson. Could you compare the two for me? Thank You |
| A: | Moderator: Similar players really, athletes who are catchers and may not stay at C. Canham's an LH hitter, Donaldson RH, but Donaldson's hit tool is probably a bit better. Wilken knows catchers, no doubt, it's a solid pick really. |
| Q: | Bruce from Ottawa, Ontario asks: Was the Phillies choice of Savery over Withrow or another pitcher a good risk? |
| A: | John Manuel: Thought it was a great pick, Savery has a chance to truly be a No. 1 guy, he does it easy, I've put Mark Mulder on him since he was a freshman and I still see it. Love that pick for the Phils. |
| Q: | BL from Bozeman asks: Does Moustakas' value as the second pick in the draft correlate directly to his ability to stay at shortstop? Is there a chance of this happening? |
| A: | John Manuel: This surprised me; no one I've talked to likes him in the middle of the diamond. It really almost doesn't matter if the bat is what they say it can be. He has the arm for RF; he could even hit enough to just go to 1B. But the Royals are really going against the grain to say SS or middle of the diamond. It doesn't mean they are wrong; it just means that's not the consensus view. |
| Q: | johnson from (dhaka, bangladesh) asks: What do you think of the Red Sox draft so far and was Hagadone an overdraft? Thanks guys love your work especially tis time of the year. |
| A: | John Manuel: Hello, Bangladesh! Hagadone wasn't an overdraft at all, and in fact, I don't see how he's so different from Daniel Moskos or Brett Cecil, except he does have less track record. But their stuff sounds quite similar for all three, good pick for Boston IMO. Boston's draft will depend on who they sign, including Middlebrooks. Jim Callis says Middlebrooks can really pitch and hit, so it's going to probably take seven figures. If the Red Sox spend, they'll have a very nice draft, and usually, they spend. |
| Q: | Chris from Mission Bay asks: Do you think the longr time betwee picks helped the teams to make better decisions? Before they only had 30 - 45 seconds between picks...shouldn't they have been able to think longer, or did they just know who they were picking based on rankings? |
| A: | John Manuel: Interesting question, but my guess is no. The time was purely for TV purposes; maybe one day if they can trade picks they'll need all that time. But I think they went off the rankings they had, not just some last-minute thoughts. |
| Q: | Jordan from Spanish Trails asks: How Long do you think it takes for David Price to reach the majors (assuming he signs sooner than later)...might we see him in september? |
| A: | John Manuel: Price could reach the majors in a month, really, if he signs immediately. The key to me is not having the downtime. He's been throwing for real since February; giving him a month or two off to sign and then re-starting him, say, in a scenario like that, that just doesn't seem like a prescription for good health. More likely you'll see him next year and like it! |
| Q: | kyle from st. louis asks: my two teams are the cardinals and the twins. from what i've heard, they both had disappointing drafts. is this true from your perspective as well? |
| A: | John Manuel: As I've said before, I thought STL acquitted itself just fine. Minnesota really went long on tools, not so high on present stuff . . . They did not take obvious guys, let's put it that way. It seems like money was a big, big factor. |
| Q: | Jim Keane from Bainbridge Island, WA asks: Having six picks in the first 51, the Giants went after guys projected to go in the top 40 or so with their first four picks, then seemed to go way off the board with their next two, picking guys well out of the top 200 at 42 and 51. Do you think they got concerned about the bonus money they would have to shell out if they used all six picks on real prospects? |
| A: | John Manuel: Again, money was a factor--the Giants took some reaches in the supplemental round who would sign for what they wanted. That said, I like their first-round guys. |
| Q: | Russ from Purple Row asks: What do you think of the Rockies' selection of Isaiah Froneberger? There has to be something not readily apparent about the guy. |
| A: | John Manuel: Well, he's got a plus curveball, and he's lefthanded--that often is a prescription for, at least, middle reliever. Kind of a safe bet, not a bad pick. |
| Q: | Allan from Madison ,Wi asks: - I understand the Best Player Available theory but why would the Brewers not take a picther instead of another young hitter which they seem to have several of right now |
| A: | John Manuel: They love LaPorta's bat, and it's hard to argue that point. If he can play LF that pick will work. If you understand the "best player" theory then you really wouldn't ask the question that way, would you? |
| Q: | Mike from MIll Valley, CA asks: What ceiling do you see for Bumgarner and Alderson? And does Alderson project more as a reliever or closer? |
| A: | John Manuel: Dick Tidrow sees both as starters and said Alderson's arm works well enough for him to remain a starter. The scouts i talked to in Arizona disagree but Tidrow's track record with pitchers is very good. |
| Q: | Alex from New Jersey asks: How do you guys think the TV draft went over? Any chance they move it to the weekend next year, and air more than they did this year? |
| A: | John Manuel: Glad it was on TV, overdue, think the first 5-10 rounds could be on in a hard-core fan's view, but it's hard to find a channel that would do t hat. When MLB's channel launches in '09, I bet the whole darn thing is on TV. Next year we'll insist that Jim get some sleep before he go on the show . . . |
| Q: | Norville Barnes from Muncie, IN asks: As of toinght this draft will be in the rearview mirror...is there anyone other than Pedro Alvarez who may go #1 next year? Who might go #1 in 2009? |
| A: | John Manuel: Norville, I'd say this sweet baby is going all the way to the top of next year's draft. Alvarez' biggest competition appears to come from the likes of Justin Smoak, 1b, South Carolina; Tyson Ross, rhp, California; and Jacob Thompson, rhp, Virginia, at least on the college side. I haven't spoken to Alan about the prep class but I know Aaron Hicks, who has gotten some Darryl Strawberry comps, is the top guy in Calif. and in the mix for the top 5 picks. |
| Q: | Phil Gurnee from Los Angeles asks: The draft looks pedestrian unless we sign Blair. What are the odds that we sigh him? Any word on where KC plans to try Moustakas at? |
| A: | John Manuel: The Royals are saying SS but I'm still trying to get a scout to talk to me about that; too much other stuff to do! I agree on the Dodgers, Kyle Blair could make the class a lot more interesting. My understanding is he's signable. |
| Q: | Terry from Concord, CA asks: I bet you guys are tired. The Giants don't have a catching prospect in their system. Is Jackson Williams legitimate? I see they just took another catcher in the 6th Round. Any thoughts there? Thanks for all the great draft coverage. This is the best time of the year. |
| A: | John Manuel: Hey, I got some sleep, and Jim slept really well last night . . . for the first time in two days. It's all in fun, I was so excited yesterday, it's been 10 years of drafts but I was surprised how into it I was. It's been cool and I appreciate your kind words. As for the Giants, Jim says Williams was a consensus 6-7 round talent, just missed being in our top 200 and is a bit of a reach, but his catch-and-throw skills are significant. |
| Q: | Max from NYC asks: What happened to Vandy's Dominic de la Osa? I thought he was at the worst a 3rd-rounder coming in. How did his stock plummet like this? |
| A: | John Manuel: Good question, I love him, 20-20 year, we're through 10 rounds on our database and I don't see him having been picked, so the signability must have changed late in the going. Even without Price and Weathers, Vandy will challenge for Omaha again next year, it's a talented team and pitching staff coming back, that could be a big factor in DLO's decision-making process. |
| Q: | Ron from Rockford,Il asks: You guys had Jake Smolinski rated @ 160 and he went 70th to the Nats.Ahead of the top 3 college shortstops. Any word on what went on to create this sudden rise? |
| A: | John Manuel: The Nats liked him; this is all personal preference and how teams see a player. We've said that for years and said it strongly in relation to this class. So it's not a sudden rise so much as a team that liked him better than the consensus, which is what we try to report and reflect. |
| Q: | Chris Dittoe from Bloomington, IN asks: What is Matt Dominguez's comparable? Is he a poor mans Scott Rolen? |
| A: | John Manuel: Rolen's 6-4, 240. He's been compared a lot more to Ryan Zimmerman than Rolen, plus he's a very good defender and probably doesn't have Rolen's 30 HRs potential. He's a very good player, a winner for his whole career and polished. I think he got overshadowed a bit this spring by Moustakas' amazing year, which is interesting because Dominguez overshadowed Moustakas for three years previously. |
Moderator: OK, that's going to have to be it everyone. Thanks for coming out . . . Jim Callis is going to come back later for a SEPARATE CHAT, currently scheduled for 3:30 p.m. Meanwhile check the database for picks being updated, we'll be back blogging soon and check out our podcast, where Will Lingo and I broke down the first day. Plus, Jim Callis is analyzing every team's first-day selections, they will be inserted into the organization reports, which are still being updated now. So much to read, so little time . . . later.
| Q: | jackie mac from dallas, texas asks: Do you see guys like blake beavan and michael main making the big leagues as starters or are they merely power relievers? |
| A: | Jim Callis: Hi, everyone. I'm out of my draft coma and piggybacking on the back end of this chat . . . I think the Rangers are thrilled to get both those guys, and they both project as starters. There is some effort or lack of orthodoxy in those deliveries, but right now, they're starters. Two of the very best arms in the whole draft. |
| Q: | bruce from bronx asks: Did the Yankees draft any sleepers? |
| A: | Jim Callis: In terms of good value with talent vs. draft slot, the guys who jump out at me are Texas third baseman Brad Suttle (fourth round), Louisiana high school shortstop Carmen Angelini (10th round) and Kent State righty Chris Carpenter (18th round). We'll see how signable they are, but Suttle and Carpenter were potential sandwich-round talents. |
| Q: | Nick from Princeton, NJ asks: Hi, What do you tink of the Phillies 1st pick Savery and their 2nd round pick, i think 83 overall, Mattair? Some pilly phans are thinking they were just going cheap staying away from Porcello. Savery does seem to have huge upside though injured. |
| A: | Jim Callis: Not cheap at all. Rice lefty Joe Savery would have been a top five or 10 pick instead of No. 19 if teams were fully convinced of his health, and he finished strong. Washington high school infielder Travis Mattair drew some sandwich-round interest and was a very nice pick. |
| Q: | Ray from Yuma AZ asks: I know the Padres had a lot of picks due think they did good. I think they passed up a lot better players |
| A: | Jim Callis: I do think they went with the polished college players a bit much over some guys with more ceiling. It's not a bad draft, though. You can harp on the fact that first choice Nick Schmidt doesn't have plus stuff, but it's solid stuff, he's lefthanded and he competes. |
| Q: | JAYPERS from IL asks: Biggest shocker of the draft - LaPorta? Is he indeed being groomed for LF? If so, how is his lack of speed going to come into play? And finally, any hint of doubt in your mind that he may not sign? (They say 3rd time's the charm.) |
| A: | Jim Callis: That did surprise me, didn't see it coming at all. The biggest shocker in the first round was Ben Revere to the Twins, but LaPorta came in second. I love the bat, but I'm not buying that he can do anything else but play first base. Milwaukee is thinking left field because it has Prince Fielder . . . we'll see. He'll definitely sign, he's a senior. |
| Q: | Terry from Concord, CA asks: You had Charlie Culberson as the 18th best prospect in Georgia, yet the Giants grabbed the SS2B, with the 51st overall pick. Is that a reach? |
| A: | Jim Callis: We had word that one was coming a couple of days before the draft. Probably the best way to put it is we had him a little low on on our list (a couple of other teams liked him pretty good) and the Giants had him a little high on theirs. But with extra picks, clubs often look to save some money somewhere. |
| Q: | Jason from Chicago asks: Why did the Cubs take Josh Vitters over Matt Weiters? It seems that Weiters would fit nicely in an area of need for the Cubs as opposed to third base. |
| A: | Jim Callis: Slotting. The Cubs weren't going above the MLB recommendation, and Wieters wasn't going to sign for the No. 3 slot (roughly $2.75 million). I'm not saying the Cubs wouldn't have taken Vitters anyway, but Vitters vs. Wieters didn't come up because they weren't taking Wieters. |
| Q: | todd from arkansas asks: Why do you suspect the Cardinals took a high school ss with their first round pick, instead of a polished college pitcher who would be able to fill a need sooner than the kid they picked? I realize they picked up some pitcher later in day one, but their first pick still makes me wonder. |
| A: | Jim Callis: I didn't get a chance to say this on the ESPN show, but I liked the Pete Kozma pick at No. 18. He was the best shortstop in the draft for me, the only guy who was going to stay at short and would hit. That's a good value pick in a draft that was very thin on middle infielders. Kudos to the Cardinals--everyone expected them to go college heavy (including me) and that's a good pick. |
| Q: | Chris from St. Louis asks: Is there any way you can make me feel better about the Cardinals draft? |
| A: | Jim Callis: I hope I just did with the last question. |
| Q: | Steve from Kansas City asks: Hi John, Jim! Do you believe Moustakas can play short at the Major League level? And any thoughts on the other first day picks made by the Royals? |
| A: | Jim Callis: I don't but I think he had the best bat in the draft and will hit enough to play anywhere. I'll say he'll be an all-star corner outfielder. |
| Q: | Chuck from Boston asks: What is the deal with the Red Sox draft this year? I felt like they would try to snag some of the tough signs with rounds 7-10 but it looks like they're going after guys that have limited ceilings at this point... |
| A: | Jim Callis: They grabbed Texas high school third basemanrighthander Will Middlebrooks, who I like a lot, in the fifth round. Just took Florida high school catcher Yasmani Grandal (28th round) and Missouri prep righty Nick Tepesch (29th round)--two sandwich-round talents. Colorado high school outfielder Matt Presley (25th round) is another good talent who slid. Virginia high school righty Justin Grimm (13th round) is another. Boston took plenty of guys who slid and could spend a lot again this summer. |
| Q: | David from Houston asks: How or why did Jake Arrieta fall so far after being a #1 or #2 rounder on about everything I read? Did signing with Boros hurt him? |
| A: | Jim Callis: That didn't help, but he was really inconsistent against so-so competition in the Mountain West Conference. That dropped him into the sandwich-second area, I bet he wanted more money than that, so he slid. |
| Q: | Richard Edwards from Easley, South Carolina asks: Josh Smoker, Nick Noonan and Jake Smolinski all signed LOI's with Clemson. Will any of them ever set foot on the campus? |
| A: | Jim Callis: They wouldn't have gone as high as they did if they weren't going to sign. Draft day was not a good day for Clemson. |
| Q: | Brett from Cleveland asks: How do you feel about the Indians passing on guys like Blake Beavan and Rick Porcello for a 1B like Baeu Mills? |
| A: | Jim Callis: Porcello wasn't a factor because of the Josh Beckett-plus-inflation price tag. I thought they'd go Beavan, but they had talked about liking Mills. Best college bat in the draft, never a bad pick at No. 13. |
| Q: | Phonab from SF asks: how about compare Jason Heyward to Cameron Maybin just drafted? |
| A: | Jim Callis: At the same point in their careers, Maybin was a better athlete but Heyward was a better hitter. Neither was a slouch in either department. Kind of surprised an athlete who can hit like Heyward lasted 14 picks. |
| Q: | Jason from East Coast asks: Why did the Nationals draft McGeary at 6? Do they have any shot at signing a guy with a committment to Stanford and a 2 million dollar bonus requirement? Seems like a waste of their 6th pick like Sean Black last year in the 2nd round. |
| A: | Jim Callis: Maybe you don't sign him. But his upside versus the upside of a typical sixth-rounder, there's no comparison. That's why you take the gamble. |
| Q: | Pat from New York asks: With Kyle Russell and Bradley Suttle lasting to the 4th round, do you see either of them signing (with the Cardinals or Yankees - repectively) or will they play one more year at Texas? |
| A: | Jim Callis: I've heard they both want $1 million each. They're both draft-eligible sophomores, so they won't lose leverage if they go into the 2008 draft. MLB is clamping down on paying above slot. So there's a chance they'll rejoin the Longhorns. That said, both the Cardinals and Yankees can afford the price tag, especially the Yankees. |
| Q: | cjb from madison, wi asks: Do you think it is a strategy for player A who doesn't not want to go to a bad team to 1) hire Boras and 2) let it be known you want huge $? S. Drew, J. Weaver, A. Miller and now Porcello land in great spots. |
| A: | Jim Callis: Yep. The slotting system is very easy to manipulate. |
| Q: | Adam from Louisiana asks: Chad Jones.....pro's or LSU? |
| A: | Jim Callis: He's the 13th-round pick of the Astros and a top football recruit. The Astros didn't have a first- or second-rounder, and their draft would be helped if owner Drayton McLane gave them the cash to sign him. It might be close to $1 million though, and I'm not sure McLane will do that. |
| Q: | Mike from Ogden, Utah asks: Looking back, any idea where Scherzer would have gone? |
| A: | Jim Callis: Middle of the first round. The Diamondbacks misread the market and really overpaid. No way Scott Boras wanted Scherzer to re-enter the draft. He'll be 23 in July, couldn't afford to hold out again and would have had to take slot money wherever he went. I say a $2.5 million straight bonus would have gotten the deal done for Arizona, maybe less. I've heard the D'back considered a $4.3 million contract with another $1.5 million in easily reachable incentives was a victory because it was less than Mike Pelfrey's guarantee. What a laugh. |
| Q: | ray from vegas asks: opinion on A's draft. good value picks because BA ranked most of them higher than they went? doolittle, brown, horton, desme..asolid group |
| A: | Jim Callis: I really like the draft. Running out of steam a bit, so I'll copy my Quick Take that we posted with the draft org report on our site: UC Riverside righthander Justin Simmons (first round) doesn't light up radar guns, but he can really pitch. He just might be the best righty college starter in this draft. It's not a good year for college position players, but the A's got four of the best in Virginia first basemanlefty Sean Doolittle (supplemental first round), Oklahoma State outfielder Corey Brown (supplemental first round), Cal Poly outfielder Grant Desme (second round) and North Carolina shortstop Josh Horton (second round). Texas Christian righty Sam Demel will be in the Oakland bullpen quickly and was a steal in third round. Polished Wichita State righty Travis Banwart was another good value in the fourth round. Jim Callis: By the way, all the Quick Takes are up for the whole AL and the NL East. The others will be up shortly after this chat is finished. |
| Q: | Mike from Mill Valley, CA asks: The draft blog on this site was critical of the Giant's second and third pick the the 1a round--were the picks that bad? Where did you have Jackson Williams and Charles Culberson ranked? |
| A: | Jim Callis: I answered a Culberson question a little while ago. Williams was one of the best catch-and-throw guys in the Midwest, but scouts questions the bat. I think the Giants overdrafted him to save some money because they had so many picks. San Francisco picked three legit first-rounders and probably had to dial back afterward. |
| Q: | Greg from Toronto asks: In comparison to other years, was the Boras factor the same, less, or more? |
| A: | Jim Callis: Boras really didn't affect too many guys. Moustakas, Wieters and LaPorta all went in the top seven picks. Brackman went 30th, but he's hurt. The two guys it really affected were Porcello and Harvey, and a lot of clubs think they're all but unsignable at almost any price because they want to attend college. |
| Q: | The Philly Phanatic's lost brother from Lost asks: My Phillys took a broken lefty!? Was this a smart move or a huge gamble. Also love Mattair with our 3rd pick will the cathcer we took d'Arnaud hit enough to make it to the majors? |
| A: | Jim Callis: A couple of years ago the Phillies took another lefty with medical issues, a high schooler no less . . . and Cole Hamels has worked out pretty well. Not sure on D'Arnaud's bat. Some of the scouts I talked to didn't like it a lot, but they loved his defense. |
| Q: | Mike from NYC asks: Jim, what would you consider a successful draft? One where you net two starters and a bench player for your team? Three starters? One starter and 2 bench players? Thoughts. |
| A: | Jim Callis: You always want more, but if you got two starters and a reseve out of every draft, you'd be drafting better than most teams. I don't worry about total number of guys reaching the majors--quality players is what matters. |
| Q: | Matt Maggard from Texas asks: Why is is that Kyle Russell was chosen in the 4th round after leading the nation in home runs this year? He has a great arm from the outfield and is an above average fielder. |
| A: | Jim Callis: Lot of scouts don't believe in his swing despite the production. He also was bad at the Area Code Games in high school and in the Cape Cod League last summer, two places where a lot of high-ranking scouts and directors saw him. Also, the $1 million price tag was a factor. If he would sign for slot money, I bet he would have gone somewhere in the sandwich round. |
| Q: | Emmett from Fayetteville, GA asks: Can you explain the Braves' alarming trend away from drafting high-risk athletes and towards low-ceiling college players? |
| A: | Jim Callis: Don't see this at all. Why draft a high-risk athlete when you can take an athlete who can really hit, like Jason Heyward? That was a great pick at No. 14, great pick. The first college player taken was Georgia closer Joshua Fields, who has a huge ceiling. The next three college guys are Texas A&M's Brandon Hicks (multitooled shortstop), Mercer's Cory Gearrin (sidearmer who'll move quickly) and Oregon's David Dixon . . . Dixon is as high-risk athlete as you can get, as the Ducks don't have a baseball team and he's a quarterback! I'm rambling now, there's more guys I can mention, but this draft is loaded with upside. Loaded! Another bangup job by Roy Clark and the Braves. |
| Q: | Jean Paul from Illinois asks: I very much liked what I read about Keowen in your Top 200 list, and I see Boston got him in the 9th. Would you call him a steal, and more importantly, will he sign? He's one big dude, and if I were Epstein, I should think he's definitely worth chasing after. |
| A: | Jim Callis: I think he's signable, because he's already 21 after not playing for two years at LSU (including one redshirt year) before going to LSU-Eunice JC. He's a tremendous athlete, a great gamble (he's raw) to take in the ninth round. I bet the Red Sox sign him. |
| Q: | Bill from New York asks: Why does slotting prevent some picks and not others? The Cubs went over slot last year for Jeff S., but won't for Wieters? The Orioles clearly will go over slot for Wieters and the Yanks likely for Brackman. Do you really believe teams place much value on slotting or is that just an excuse for actually not wanting to pay the market value for a player? |
| A: | Jim Callis: MLB has put a full-court press on teams to stick with slotting this year, and many fell into line this year, at least in the early rounds, the Cubs among them. It's a big issue. We'll see what happens this summer if a couple of teams start signing a lot of their unsignable guys. |
| Q: | Bill from New York asks: Red Sox take Tepesch in the 26th round. Certainly he is better than that and fell for signability issues. In general, are signability concerns based on statements of agents and the players or just a general perception of the player, their options and where they should be drafted based on talent alone? Or a combination of all of the above? |
| A: | Jim Callis: Teams ask players and agents exactly what the player wants. There's not a ton of guesswork in what a guy's asking price is. It's up to the area scout to figure out how serious the player will be about sticking to the price. |
| Q: | Steve from Washington DC asks: Hey Jim, great work yesterday. But I've gotta know, did you finally get some sleep? |
| A: | Jim Callis: Came home after ESPN, collapsed, slept from 7 p.m. to 7 a.m. If you have four kids, sleeping 12 hours is an accomplishment. I have a face made for radio, but I don't usually look as haggard as I did yesterday! |
| Q: | Armin from Austria asks: The Yankees drafted Carpenter (18. Rd) and Peavey (24. Rd). Any thoughts? |
| A: | Jim Callis: The Yankees can afford to sign anyone they want. Those are two guys they can sink some money to bolster their draft if they can't land Andrew Brackman . . . but they can sign Brackman and those guys if they want. |
| Q: | Chris from Syracuse, NY asks: I know that it was expected for more teams to drop out before round 50 this year because of the lack of draft and follows, but I don't understand how the Toronto Blue Jays can give up on 20 picks the way they did. Do you know any reasons why they stopped picking that quickly? |
| A: | Jim Callis: I guess they ran out of guys they wanted to sign. Personally, I'd always take 50 players. Even if I can't sign all of them, even if I can't follow all of them all summer, why not take 50? |
| Q: | Ryan from Houston asks: What exactly happens to teams that sign guys for over slot value? Do they get punished or something by MLB? |
| A: | Jim Callis: You can't be directly punished if you go through the mandated process. If you want to sign a guy over slot, you have to tell MLB. You have to explain why it's a good move. Then MLB, much like David Spade in those phone commericals, says "NO!" Then you say you want to do it anyway, and MLB tries to lean on your owner. Now, if you're a small-revenue owner and you're hoping Bud Selig will give you an All-Star game or some discretionary funds, you might fall in line. Otherwise, MLB can't really do much to you. |
Moderator: Jim is going to finish up his Quick Takes that we'll run with our draft org reports--the NL should be complete in the next hour. Thanks for all the questions, and we'll keep providing the best draft coverage in the business!