John Manuel: Hi everybody (hi, Dr. Nick!) . . . time for a draft chat to squeeze in amidst the other calls . . . let's dig in

John Manuel: Erickson's stock has slipped somewhat this year, not just because he's starting and showing less velocity, but because he wasn't throwing as well as he has in the past even when he was closing. I think he's more in the 3-5 round range. I'm a huge David Huff fan. He has a lot of things in common with Barry Zito: both pitched for 3 schools in college. Both were coached by John Savage, noted college pitching coach who knows what he's doing; both turned down significant money when drafted out of junior college, making scouts doubt they really "wanted it"; and both have a plus secondary pitch. For Huff, it's a change, Zito obviously has the curve. Both are 87-90 mph with the fastball as amateurs. I see Huff in the first round, and in the 15-25 range.

John Manuel: He's a solid senior sign as a big guy who runs well and has some power. Gartrell probably will go in the first 10 rounds, but teammate Scott Cousins will go better, perhaps significantly better. Nice year by the Dons and coach Nino Giarratano.

John Manuel: Sounds like he won't get out of the first two rounds, though his stuff has been erratic in terms of being very good at times and just ok at others. He hasn't consistently dominated. I've always been more of a makeup than stuff guy when it comes to closers (see my debates wJim Callis re: Huston Street), and Perez's makeup reminds me more of Kyle Farnsworth than of Street or Chad Cordero.

John Manuel: Not good. Gaub is apparently healthy this year after shoulder woes, but he's just lost a lot of velocity, which is one reason he's not pitching. Might just be a case where a team that saw him really good in the past takes him hoping he rediscovers it in the summer pitching in Cape Cod or some other summer college league.

John Manuel: Joliet's Joe Benson sounds like the best of a bad lot, as he has bat speed and is expected to hit, though not remain behind the plate. Normal West High's Luke Stewart, a third baseman, is the next-best talent, though he's not likely to sign with a strong college commitment to Georgia. His father Jeff was the coach at Illinois State.

John Manuel: If he's healthy, I see Melancon moving the quickest, he has the best stuff of the trio and the best makeup, he's universaly praised by his own coaches, opposing coaches and scouts for his toughness and personality as well as his stuff. Justin Masterson at San Diego State should still go at the back of the first round thanks to his size, low-90s velocity and control, and he profiles better as a closer. Of course Tim Lincecum might be the best closer of all these guys and would move fastest of all, if he's put in the bullpen.

John Manuel: Ugh . . . not a pretty draft for catchers. Hank Conger should go in the first round because of his bat and his improved defense behind the plate, though he's not a sure thing to catch. Not sure who the No. 2 catcher on the board is; just a bad year for catchers. Chad Tracy of Pepperdine had some helium a month ago, but the home runs stopped and he's played some DH lately, leading to speculation about his arm. Florida prep catcher Max Sapp also could go good based mostly on his bat.

John Manuel: To go back a question or two, I think I left out that Mark Melancon has a ligament strain in his elbow and has missed about three weeks for Arizona, and his health clouds his draft status

John Manuel: The Mets probably are going to have to spend first-round money to keep a draft-and-follow, Pedro Beato, out of the draft. He was their 17th-rounder last year out of Brooklyn and has really come on strong for coach Dave Pano at St. Petersburg JC. He's been in the mid-90s, and one scout told our Alan Matthews that Beato would go in the first half of the first round.

Moderator: There's just more that goes into it than what kind of bonus Hochevar might get. How will the layoff affect his arm? Will he ever have the control and command he had before, which was the main reason he was a first-round talent? Those questions won't be answered until long after he signs. But if the bonus is the be-all, end-all, then yeah, I think the strategy will work, because he could re-enter a draft that lacks top-shelf talent.

John Manuel: He's at the front end of a trend of high school pitchers; there will be five-seven HS pitchers who have a chance to go in the first round this year, because it's just not a good year for college position players. I can't speak for Dana Brown, but I'll be surprised if Jeffress lasts to that spot, so Dana may not have a decision to make on Jeffress.

John Manuel: I need to take a break to take a draft call, sorry.

John Manuel: OK, I'm back . . . Cardenas isn't a great defender, so he's not likely to go in the first round. Some have mentioned a move to C, most think he's an offensive 2B.

John Manuel: First half of the first round, probably will go a bit better than David Huff, who is the most comparable pitcher in the draft, because he's younger.

John Manuel: Neither of those guys have ever had plus-plus stuff, like, say, Lincecum, or Brandon Morrow. So their margin for error was less than other pitchers, and Kennedy especially just isn't a big guy at 6-foot, 180 pounds or so. We get consistent reports that Kennedy's velo is down, though he's shown his usual 89-91 mph at times, but I've heard more like 86-88 this year. His command and changeup aren't what they were last year. His stock has fallen; he's a short RHP; and he's got Scott Boras as his, well, er, adviser. It's not a good mix. Cassel's just a back-of-the-rotation profile, a pitchability righty with three solid or fringe-average pitches. Both are first five round talents; Kennedy hasn't shown the first-round stuff and command that was forecast for him, and I frankly have no idea where he's getting drafted.

John Manuel: Drew Stubbs . . . The Tigers scored with a toolsy OF with questions on the bat last year in Cam Maybin, and Stubbs playing next to him in center would make for one hellacious defensive OF.

John Manuel: Very, very poor year in Michigan. We're not hearing any players going in the first five rounds.

John Manuel: Minaker, a better defender who has hit well this year; Betances started very poorly but has come on strong and should go good enough (first three rounds) that he's not a DNF. Finally, the Giants pick . . . I have no idea what Dirt Tidrow is thinking, but it's safe to guess that in a year with lots of pitching and very few hitters, they are going to go pitcher; I also could see them go HS pitcher, such as Jordan Walden, who put up some 99 mph numbers last summer but hasn't been that good this year. Would they pop a Kyle Drabek, despite some of the makeup questions? I think that's an organization that would do it.

John Manuel: The obvious trio in Texas is on the mound--Clayton Kershaw, Kyle Drabek and then Jordan Walden. AFter that, Aaron Miller (Channelview OFLHP) and Zach Britton (LHP out of Weatherford). Britton has really come on this spring, adding several ticks to a fastball that was in the mid-to-upper 80s last summer. Miller was seen more as a pitcher, our Jim Callis reports, but has come on as a pitcher and will be drafted as such next month.

John Manuel: Really, that's like being the third tenor . . . it's just the "other guy." Matt LaPorta has had a rough spring and is a Boras advisee, but he has power and has earned some Billy Butler comparisons. Butler's done pretty well for himself; if LaPorta is Butler with more power and less average, well, he's gonna be pretty good. As I said, Tracy has slipped a bit, but he's earned Mike Piazza comps -- WITHOUT THE POWER -- as a hitter who makes great adjustments and uses the whole field despite an unorthodox swing. The more likely, more complete prospect is Matt Antonelli, the athletic infielder out of Wake Forest whom scouts project as an offensive second baseman. He's the safest bet to go third, but I don't think he's the third-best college position player available. If he is . . . wow. No offense, Matt.

John Manuel: He may be on the college side. He needs to add strength to stay at short and to be a factor offensively, but he's got aptitude, great speed, great work ethic as detailed by Will Kimmey in today's college notes. I think most scouts like guys like Stephen King better, though he might be a 3B . . . New Orleans prep infielder Ryan Adams is an offensive 2B who also could go by the second round. The paucity of players in the middle of the diamond is what truly distinguishes this as a below-average draft.

John Manuel: Strength of draft . . . every year, scouts tell us it's bad or mediocre every year. Most years, Jim Callis and I will say it's better than they think. This year, we're probably more pessimistic than they are, for whatever that is worth. In such conditions, I would shoot for the moon as a scouting director--take the guy I believe in, regardless of position or college or high school. If I believe in him, take him. If you don't, don't waste your money--sign some DFEs, or invest the money into the organization's Latin American academy. Don't waste money on players you don't believe in, but oh well, he'll sign for slot. Is that an answer?

John Manuel: Bill, while Miller is the consensus No. 1, let me break down some of the issues with him, briefly. 1. He doesn't really throw a changeup. That's usually a problem for a LHP who has to handle righties. Now, his 2-seamer is virtually a change at 83-86 mph, but that's a little firm for a change. Scouts would like to see more progress there. 2. Some scouts question whether or not Miller will have the core strength in his wiry frame to maintain his mechanics over 34 starts, without breaking down repeatedly. That has some scouts saying "reliever." I've heard enough scouts who really, really like him, and I consider him a legit No. 1 overall talent, not just in a bad draft like this one but in most drafts. He's better than the top LHP in last year's draft, Ricky Romero. Not sure he has Romero's moxie, but the stuff is better. All that said . . . if the Royals believe in him as a No. 2-3 starter at least, then they would be really foolish, in my opinion, to pass on him, even for a Pelfrey contract (major league deal, $3.5 mil bonus, $5.5 overall guarantee . . . just throwing it out there). Where are they going to find a big league pitcher that good for their bedraggled franchise at that price? They won't. So if they like Miller, they should draft him.

John Manuel: Lightning round!

John Manuel: Won't get out of the third round.

John Manuel: Not as much as Peter Gammons is hearing but yes, first three rounds, more 2-3.

John Manuel: I love Ambriz, he's a harder thrower than Casey Janssen, but like Janssen, he's a two-way guy who will have more velo and feel for pitching as he focuses on pitching. Also like his former UCLA teammate, Ambriz is a bulldog, he's pitching Fridays, he holds his velo (91 in the ninth against Cal) . . . Imagine my Tom Heinson voice saying, "I . . . love . . . Hector!" He's got a bad body and an injury history, those are the things that cloud his status . . . I'm saying 3rd to 5th.

John Manuel: Florida is strong this year, stronger than it was last year. I happen to think Arizona is OK but a lot of its talent might sign as DNFs. I love the AZ JC's this year. Bryan Casey might be my favorite player in the draft, and Yavapai--which could have seven-to-nine players drafted if they don't sign as DNF--probably is my favorite team in college baseball right now.

John Manuel: Sounds like fourth-to-sixth, solid in a lot of phases but not knocking anyone's socks off.

John Manuel: Tiffy, always love your passion for the Jints . . . I'd do what I advised before, trust my gut and give Dirt Tidrow the money to sign the guy he wants. Their best prospects have not been their first-rounders anyway (Sanders, J. Sanchez, Frandsen, etc.), so I'd also ask him not to blow the whole budget in the first round to save for later rounds and draft-and-follows if he needs it. If Drabek's there, I'd take him if I were the Giants.

John Manuel: No, they have makeup questions too . . . I can't get more specific, unfortunately, but there are off-field questions on both players that scouts have known about for a while. Everyone hoped they would mature some this spring, but they're still waiting is what we are hearing.

John Manuel: great question. I think pitching in the AMerican Association is the equivalent of being exiled to the Dagoba system . . . so maybe you've seen him lately. Anyway, Hochevar is just as good if not better than any college RHP in this draft. I'd take Miller over him, but after that, he's got better size, clean mechanics and fastball command when he's at his best. So Hochever would be a factor anywhere. The Rockies considered him at 7 last year but passed when Tulo was available. I think it's hard to over-state, though, the makeup questions that come up about Hochevar about last September's agent escapades. Scouts question why he didn't take better control of the situation. I think it's a very fair concern.

John Manuel: Davis is the better prospect, solid defender at SS, but Turner can really play. I'm a huge Red Turner fan. Davis might go first five rounds; Turner should be a single-digit draft, first 9 rounds, despite the fact he has below-average tools. He can just play.

John Manuel: Sounds like this Tommy John alumnus is picking up helium, throwing in the low 90s and should go in the first 10 rounds.

John Manuel: Guys with helium, in the BA parlance? I'll throw out some . . . Pedro Beato is definitely one, the St. Pete JC rhp; I'll say Scott Cousins at San Francisco; Jeremy Jeffress is picking up steam; Long Beach State's Drew Carpenter has been so steady all year, he's going to go good; Arizona LHP Brad Mills should go in the first five rounds; and the guy with lots of helium in California, Trevor Cahill, rhp out of San Diego, best prep in the city. He had a bad outing the other day but pitched despite strep throat. He's a Dartmouth commitment; if he gets to the Ivy League, he could put up Lincecum numbers.

John Manuel: You might get better guys later anyway, like Steven Wright at Hawaii, who has a plus slider, solid other stuff and might get more velo with a move to the bullpen (he touched 95 in that role in the past). Who's to say where Dallas Buck goes, but he'd be pretty nice in the second round if his velocity drop takes him that far down.

John Manuel: It will be significant again . . . Max Scherzer, Ian Kennedy, Matt LaPorta . . . just to name three. Jason Donald and Colin Curtis will be affected, as neither has been stupdendous this spring and neither profiles as a regular . . . All those guys have had some warts; none is a "special player" in the Boras parlance. Hochevar obviously is the biggest wild card.

John Manuel: I think he does actually, he has the pitches for it. Frankly, i don't care how different his delivery is . . . he throws ALL THE TIME and is never hurt, never sore, long-tosses pole to pole the day after throwing 140 pitches. He's a physical freak, in a good way. Why not let him try to start before you turn him into Scot Shields? The greatest players almost always do it a little differently, don't they? Bonds isn't textbook; Jeter isn't textbook (just trying to irritate some people there . . .) Big Papi and Manny Ramirez are far from conventional. Just throwing it out there. . . i don't see why you would limit a guy with that kind of stuff.

John Manuel: He could go higher, but he's not going to get significantly more than the $1.4 million he was offered last year. The Rays just goofed on the delivery of the bonus, Morris was ready to sign, it just got flubbed. It sounds like his stuff is still plus, still a little unconventional (throws across his body) but good, firm stuff.

John Manuel: The Royals aren't going to mess with a Boras client who hasn't been healthy. Scherzer still might be the best pitcher in this draft, but it has to be the right mix: a team that will deal with Boras, that has money, and that has seen him good.

John Manuel: Will Kimmey's interview with Lincecum in today's college preview hits this better than I could. Lincecum explains how he became better, but don't forget, this guy was Pac-10 pitcher of the year as a freshman; he didn't come out of nowhere. And he blew the doors off the Cape Cod League last summer. He's been good--very good--before. Subscribers should go read our scouting report on him from 2003 in high school, when he was 5-foot-9, 137 pounds, and didn't throw quite as hard, but the report sounds familiar.

John Manuel: OK, that's gonna wrap it up. Thanks for the questions; we'll be back next Friday. BA's draft coverage proper--the draft preview issue--also starts getting posted next week. Then my left ear goes into rehab from all the phone calls, and Jim Callis and I reintroduce ourselves to our respective families (Alan Matthews meanwhile just keeps cranking it out . . . ). Enjoy it all and thanks for the time.