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 By James Bailey If you have a question, send it to askba@baseballamerica.com. March 30, 2000 Four days to go until the real Opening Day. There are some interesting cuts burning up the transaction wires. You could field a full lineup of young players who had regular jobs last season that have now been told to report to the minors, or even flat out released. Your Triple-A all-star team might look something like this: C-Ben Davis, Las Vegas; 1B-Doug Mientkiewicz, Salt Lake; 2B-Marlon Anderson, Scranton/Wilkes-Barre; SS-Mike Caruso, Charlotte; 3B-Dave Hollins, Durham; OF-Chad Allen, Salt Lake; Todd Greene, released; Randy Winn, Durham; P-Carlos Castillo, Charlotte; Jason Johnson, Rochester. Okay, I cheated a little with Hollins. He's not young, but the team needs a little veteran leadership and I can't find any other third baseman for the club. I thought it would be fudging too much to throw Mike Lamb in there, though it did look at the beginning of the month like he had the inside track on the Rangers' job. Coincidentally, our first couple of questions deal with spring training decisions. Why do teams continue to place so much emphasis on spring training stats? It sure seems foolish to make personnel decisions on 30 at-bats or 30 innings. If Eric Gagne looked ready for the show last year, why throw that out the window because of a few bad three-inning outings? Or why keep a John Roskos on the basis of a few at-bats (many probably vs. minor leaguers) when nothing in his track record would lead one to believe he's for real?
Allen Telgenhof
I'm in complete agreement with Allen that spring training stats are not to be taken too seriously. Though they are available in several places on the Web, the only time I consulted them all spring was last week when I had to look up Roskos' numbers for this column. But I wouldn't assume that too many managers out there are reading much into them either. I was reading a story on the Florida Sun-Sentinel site in which Marlins manager John Boles was talking about one of his young players. He said that he doesn't care about the result of the at-bat, he cares about the at-bat itself. If a player collects four bloop hits in a game, in Boles' book he's 0-for-4. Meanwhile, if another player lines out hard four times, he's 4-for-4. That makes a lot of sense to me. There's an old saying about it being a long season and everything evens out, etc. But that's only true for the long season itself. For a short 50-60 at-bat season like spring training, a few breaks can really inflate a guy's batting average and a couple of mistakes can kill a pitcher's ERA. It would be foolish for a team to base their personnel decisions solely on the stat lines that come from the Grapefruit or Cactus leagues. Statistics can lie, or at least exaggerate a little. But if a pitcher is getting crushed, like Ed Yarnall or Eric Gagne this spring, that's going to set off an alarm for a manager whether he reads the stat sheet or not. Gagne looked great last fall, but if he's not getting it done now, the manager needs to consider whether he's likely to get it done in April. Maybe he's not throwing with the same mechanics or the same confidence he had last September. Maybe there's some other factor. But the bottom line is, if he doesn't look like one of the five best starters the Dodgers have at this point in time, they need to make a decision about where to send him. Also, if you're going to write off a spring training performance because of the competition (minor league pitchers, etc.), you can't put too much stock into a September performance for the same reason. You've got a lot of minor leaguers getting their feet wet in September and the veteran players on half of the teams no longer have the incentive of a pennant race to draw out their best effort. I'm not sure what John Roskos will do if given a real chance this season, but it's not really fair to say the guy has nothing in his track record to prove he's for real. What's your definition of for real? I don't think he's a legitimate .600 hitter, but the guy is a career .295 hitter in the minor leagues. That's a better track record than a lot of guys have when they get to the major leagues. That it took a phenomenal spring for him to get his foot in the door shouldn't be a knock on him. But at the same time, people need to be realistic in their expectations of what he'll do in the long season. I was shocked when I saw Chad Allen of Minnesota was sent to Triple-A. He had a pretty solid rookie season and was hitting .333 this spring. Why did they send him down and who is going to start in left field? David Chivvis Like I said, don't put too much stock into the .333 average. Allen was 14-for-42 this spring (just referenced the stats for the second time) with no home runs. Let's hypothetically take two bloop hits away and now he's a .286 hitter with no power. The stats really don't mean much. I wish I could find it now, but I remember reading a story before spring training started in which Twins manager Tom Kelly basically said it was time for some of his young players to realize how fortunate they were last season. He was really upset about his team's overall lack of effort in September, though he was at somewhat of a loss to explain it all. The upshot of the story was that Kelly was saying no one should expect to win a job this spring just because they had one all last summer. And true to his word, Kelly told three of his 1999 regulars to pack their bags for Triple-A. Along with Allen, first baseman Doug Mientkiewicz and catcher Javier Valentin were sent to Salt Lake. Allen was somewhat of a surprise last year when he made the club after having played at Double-A New Britain in 1998. In fact, he was the player we featured when we did our Opening Day Surprises last year. You might be able to get away with calling his rookie season "pretty solid," because he did keep his head above water and manage to hold onto the starting job all year. But, you're not going very far with a left fielder who hits 10 home runs and drives in 46 in 481 at-bats. The Twins are apparently going to take their chances with Butch Huskey in left field this year. In 95 fewer at-bats last year, Huskey hit 12 more homers than Allen and collected 31 more RBIs. For my money, he's a step up for the Twins. I've got a question here about Tigers future superstar Jeff Weaver. Recently Tigers manager Phil Garner said he would send Weaver to the Triple-A Toledo after spring training and use a four-man rotation for the first two weeks of the season given two off days. I understand how this would help the Tigers by opening up an extra roster spot. What I do not understand is that Garner said the move was to help rest Weaver's arm, which suffered through dead periods toward the end of last year. Meanwhile Garner said Weaver will get a couple of starts down at Toledo. What I do not understand is, isn't two starts in Toledo just the same as two starts in Detroit? I mean aren't innings just the same anywhere you throw them? Why does Garner feel that this will somehow rest Weaver's arm when it will be used just the same, if not more, just in a different uniform?
Thanks,
I don't think innings are the same anywhere you throw them. Especially if you're throwing them under what are basically rehab conditions. Weaver can relax in Toledo and get a little work in without the stress of trying to be perfect on every pitch. As long as he's not completely bombed, he knows he'll still get the call in mid-April when the Tigers need a fifth guy. It's also easier to keep a guy on a pitch count in the minor leagues than it is in the big leagues. If the Tigers want to contend this year, they know that every game counts. If they want to take it easy on Weaver and give him a couple of 70-pitch starts, they can do that at the Triple-A level and not worry so much about what that does for the team's chances of winning those games. I haven't seen any specific pitch limit the Tigers have targeted for Weaver, but you have to guess they're not just going to turn him loose in Toledo. You answered a question about A.J. Hinch and the big discrepancy between his minor league and major league numbers a few days ago. Could it be that a lot of catching prospects with solid offensive ability tend to struggle a bit longer when they make the big leagues than comparable prospects at other positions? Now I can't back this up from the limited resources I have, but I can name several catchers who have followed this pattern over the last decade or so: For example, Todd Hundley, Mike Lieberthal, Darren Daulton, to a lesser extent Eddie Taubensee and Brook Fordyce. Each of them struggled vs. major league pitching for several seasons before becoming an offensive force of sort. Do you run studies about things like this? Maybe it's the added responsibility for a catcher who reaches the major league level compared to other positions. I'd love to hear your thoughts on this.
André
There is a lot of anecdotal evidence out there that shows catchers do often mature later than other position players. They have a lot more to learn at their position than a left fielder or a third baseman does, and much of their effort is put into learning how to work with a pitching staff and call a game. While many catchers must marvel at Ivan Rodriguez, inside they have to hate the guy just a little. At 19, IRod was handling a big league staff and hitting well enough to earn the starting job in Texas. Getting to the big leagues as a teenager is a major accomplishment for anyone, let alone a catcher. I wouldn't go so far as to call this a "study," but let's take a quick look at the ages at which some of the other full-time catchers out there first found their offensive stroke:
Yeah, it's debatable whether some of those guys have every really found their stroke, but I tried to look at them relative to themselves. Hinch, remember is still just 25, so A's fans can take heart in knowing that he's still younger than many major league catchers were when they figured it all out. March 28, 2000 I'm not sure about you, but I get some of my best sleeping done between 5 a.m. and the time my alarm goes off at 7:30. I hit the REM sleep running and come out with all kinds of good dreams. None of them, however, involve Major League Baseball holding its season opener in Japan. Opening Day for most baseball fans is as big a deal as Christmas. But it's hard to get too excited about it this year, because you don't know which day to celebrate. Is April 3, the day that most major league teams play their first games, the real Opening Day? Or does this two-day shenanigan in Japan count? It's hard to get excited for the first pitch of the season when there have been two games on the books for nearly a week. And it's harder still to get out of bed at 5 a.m. (4 a.m. for you Cubs fans) to watch a game halfway around the world that has "EXHIBITION" stamped all over it. I'm sure MLB will tell you this series was set up in an effort to grow the game internationally. Baseball is the greatest game in the world, and efforts to expand the market should be applauded--to an extent. It's nice to reel in new fans, but I think you cross the line when you steal Opening Day from the fans that have been supporting the game all along. I could say I'm protesting by not watching the two Mets-Cubs contests, but the truth is, I'll be asleep. I'm done using the soap box now, so let's get on to a few questions. Hello BA, First of all I want to thank you guys for all the great minor league info and coverage you do. Every morning you are my shot in the arm for my baseball fix. I am a father of a minor leaguer and it helps to see his name in any of your writeups (good ones hopefully). My son's name is Scott Kirby he plays for the Brewers. Scott has had a roller coaster career to say the least. It seems he is on track for the moment. My question is, could you dig up some successful ball players that have made it to the Big Show with similar careers for comparisons to Scott's career. Thanks again for your Website and paper. Look forward to hearing from you.
Thanks
Fear not, Dad. There are several examples handy of players who have gotten off to slow starts on their pro careers and eventually reached the big leagues. For those who might not be quite so familiar with Scott as his father is, here's a little background. He was taken in the 30th round of the 1995 draft by the Brewers and signed the following May as a draft-and-follow after attending Polk (Fla.) CC. He spent his first two seasons at Rookie-level Helena, batting .262 with 11 homers and 47 RBIs in 1997 after a .200-4-21 showing the previous season. In 1998 at Class A Beloit, Scott hit .203 with eight homers in 359 at-bats. He seemed like a longshot at that point, but then everything clicked for him last year and he became a prospect in the Brewers' eyes by hitting .296 with 27 home runs at two Class A stops. That was enough to earn him the No. 9 spot on the Brewers Top 10 this past winter. I spent a little time combing through the Baseball America Super Register looking for players who reached the big leagues after first spending several years at the lower levels of the minor leagues. I'm sure this isn't an all-inclusive list, but heck, the book is 702 pages long and includes over 6,300 players. As Kirby is a corner infielder, I tried to focus on corner infielders and outfielders, and leave middle infielders and catchers out. Here's who I came up with: Cubs outfielder Roosevelt Brown, Red Sox first baseman Brian Daubach, Giants third baseman Russ Davis, Padres outfielder Al Martin and Yankees outfielder Shane Spencer. Brown, who was drafted in the 20th round in 1993, took 5 1/2 seasons to reach Double-A. While Kirby is expected to accomplish that feat this year (after four seasons), he, like Brown, showed his power for the first time in his fourth season. Daubach, a 17th-round pick in 1990, spent five seasons in Rookie-ball and Class A. In his fourth season, at Class A Capital City, he hit .280 with seven homers and 72 RBIs. It took him another six years to stick as a major leaguer, and I'm guessing Kirby is hoping he can move a little fast than that. A 29th-rounder in 1988, Davis reached Double-A in his fourth season, but hit just .218-8-58 at Albany in 1991. The next year he returned to the Eastern League and hit .285 with 22 homers. He was 22 that year, the same age Kirby was last season when he broke through. Like Daubach, Martin spent five years in Rookie-ball and Class A, meeting potential wives in cities like Sumter, S.C.; Idaho Falls; Burlington, Iowa; and Durham, N.C. An eighth-round pick in 1985, he didn't really break through as a hitter until his eighth season, when he batted .305 with 51 extra-base hits at Triple-A Buffalo. Spencer, who was drafted in the 28th round in 1990, tops the list with six full seasons below the Double-A level. In fact, he put in more than eight years in the minor leagues before getting his first big league call. He was 24 when his power came through and he hit 29 homers at Double-A Norwich in 1996. I've been reading in the newspaper that Glendon Rusch has apparently won the fifth-starter job for the New York Mets. But at the same time, the transactions report that Rusch was optioned to Norfolk. What's going on? Is this move related to the team playing in Japan, or something to do with jockeying for the final 25 man roster?
Thanks,
I too did a doubletake when I saw that Rusch had been sent to Norfolk just minutes after I read that he had won the fifth starter's job. But it's just a roster-spot game. By keeping Rusch off the roster until the Mets actually need to use him in a game, they gain an additional player for their first four games. This strategy works best at the beginning of the season, though sometimes teams will send out their No. 5 starter at the all-star break or during a stretch when they have a couple of off-days and he might be skipped anyway. That's because of the Ten-Day Rule, that says any player optioned to the minor leagues must stay there 10 days, unless they are needed sooner because another player is injured and placed on the DL. Incidentally, Rusch and I share an alma mater. He graduated from Seattle's Shorecrest High six years after I did. I met him for the first time in 1995, though, thousands of miles from Seattle, in Lynchburg, Va., at the Carolina League all-star game. I am at a loss to understand how A.J. Hinch can look like a future Hall of Famer in the minors and fall flat on his face in the majors. Do you have any insight into that in general and Hinch in particular?
Thanks,
Hinch is hardly the first guy to tear through the minors, only to stumble upon reaching the big leagues. There are a few factors, but I think the biggest one is it's simply tougher to excel in the majors because you're playing against the best players in the world. Major league pitchers can exploit a hitter's weaknesses far more consistently than minor league hurlers can. Ballpark factors shouldn't be overlooked as well, and Hinch played his minor league ball in the California and Pacific Coast leagues, two notorious hitters' circuits. And I've never seen this mentioned in regards to Hinch, but "stage fright," for lack of a better term, could come into play with some players. There's a zillion times more pressure to succeed in the major league spotlight. Hinch is an interesting case, because his numbers are so markedly different from the minors to the majors. He's a .333 career hitter in the minor leagues, with 35 doubles and 26 homers in 519 at-bats. In the majors he's a .225 hitter with 14 doubles and 16 homers in 542 at-bats. I suspect the real A.J. Hinch lies somewhere in between, likely closer to what he's done in the major leagues. Despite all of Hinch's heroics with the bat as a minor leaguer, many people still viewed him as a defensive guy first prior to his big league debut. That's an amazing label given what he had done offensively in 1997 and the fact that he didn't have the arm strength then normally associated with a frontline catcher. Here's a flashback to the 1998 A's Top 10 list, on which Hinch ranked No. 4: "Hinch hit for average and power last year, but people hardly talk about his bat. He has a knack for catching: He can call a game, work with pitchers and maintain a quiet target behind the plate. At 23, he has shown leadership skill." Maybe not the writeup you'd expect for a guy who just hit .328 with 24 homers and 97 RBIs in his pro debut. But scouts weren't fooled into thinking he was going to be a big-time hitter, let alone a Hall of Famer. And it looks like they were right. Of course, he's still only 25 years old, so maybe we shouldn't give up on the guy just yet. March 23, 2000 Since Tuesday I got some further information on Omar Beltre's situation. You might recall we had a question about him then. Beltre's signing bonus from the Rangers was $650,000, which is just about smack dab in the middle of the $400,000 and $1 million range that Evan Grant gave me. But there's more to the story. Beltre and his agent Don Nomura had apparently come to a verbal agreement with the Reds on a deal for around $300,000 last fall, but the Reds were hoping to delay the signing and count it against this year's budget. Unfortunately for them, in the meantime Beltre picked up a few mph on his fastball, putting him in the 93-95 mph range. Nomura opened the bidding back up and eventually got twice as much money from the Rangers. In another development on another Tuesday question, the second player to be named in the Hideki Irabu deal was sent to the Yankees. The Expos sent righthander Christian Parker to New York to complete the deal that had earlier cost them righthander Jake Westbrook and lefthander Ted Lilly. Parker, 24, spent most of last season at Double-A Harrisburg, going 8-5, 3.65 with 45 strikeouts in 89 innings. He's not regarded as as much of a prospect as Westbrook or Lilly. A couple of readers wrote in saying they thought the Expos had given up too much. I didn't want to weigh in on that until I saw who the last player was. It hurts a little to give up young pitching of the caliber of Westbrook and Lilly, but I don't think this was a horrible deal for the Expos. It can only help Irabu to get as far away from the Yankees as possible, and Montreal fits that bill. He showed flashes of brilliance in his two-plus seasons in Yankee Stadium, and maybe he can put things together out of the spotlight. If Ed Yarnall keeps struggling for the Yankees, they might begin wishing they had Irabu back. At least they knew what they were getting, and he did post a winning record over the past two seasons (20-16). That's more than most clubs can say for their No. 5 starter. What's the story with John Roskos? He's tearing the cover off the ball this spring (yes, I know it's only spring), and his numbers with Calgary last year were really solid. I know he's 25, and he can play a few positions, but what's his background, and does he have a spot with the Pads, or will they move him?
Thanks,
Roskos is indeed hot this spring. He's batting .636 in 22 at-bats with five doubles and four home runs. Still, he hasn't won himself a spot on the 25-man roster yet, according to the San Diego Union-Tribune. The Padres are pretty tight on roster spots and Roskos could feel the squeeze. There must be something about the Southwest that brings out the best in Roskos. According to the Marlins 1999 media guide, he hit .600 over his last two years in high school in Albuquerque. He's shown an impressive bat at-times in his minor league career as well. Last year at Triple-A Calgary he hit .320-24-90 and led the Pacific Coast League with 44 doubles and 68 extra-base hits (tied with Salt Lake's David Ortiz). That was enough to earn him honors as the Marlins' organization player of the year. But after seven years in the Florida system, Roskos opted for free agency this winter. He signed with the Padres last November. Roskos is versatile enough to be a valuable utility player for the Padres. Drafted as a catcher, he played four different positions last year. He spent 85 games in the outfield, 31 at first base, seven at catcher and two at third. Given that and his spring it seems like the Padres should try to find a spot for him on the Opening Day roster. But he's not the first guy to tear it up in spring training and history is rich with guys who couldn't keep it up once the games counted. With Milwaukee struggling to keep their rotation healthy what are the chances that Ben Sheets will be called up this year? BerlerD@aol.com I certainly wouldn't bet against Sheets reaching the big leagues this season. Last year Ryan Rupe (Devil Rays), Jeff Weaver (Tigers) and Kip Wells (White Sox) all made their major league debuts the year after they were drafted. Sheets and A's lefthander Barry Zito seem like good bets to do so this year. Sheets finished last season at Class A Stockton and I'd guess he'll start this year at Double-A Huntsville. If he's on a roll after a couple of months, it's not out of the question that he could work his way into the Brewers rotation. Incidentally, the Brewers had some good news this week on the pitching front when it was determined that Jamey Wright would not need surgery to repair damage to his right rotator cuff and labrum. The Brewers think now that he'll be able to strengthen the shoulder through exercises and could return to action in as little as six weeks. I am trying to find out what happened to Chad McConnell. He played for Creighton and was on the 1992 Olympic team. He got drafted in the first round (1993?) by the Phillies, I believe, and I haven't heard anything since.
Thanks,
McConnell was the Phillies' first-round pick in 1992 and began his pro career in 1993. He played four seasons in the Phillies organization, spending his last 2 1/2 years at Double-A Reading. He sat out the 1997 season following back surgery and that pretty much ended his pro career. March 21, 2000 I'd like to thank all the Red Sox fans who took time out of their busy schedules to write us with their concerns about our major and minor league talent rankings. I don't really have the space or inclination here to go through everything again, so I won't. But I would just like to say that we don't have anything against the Red Sox and we are not part of any global conspiracy to denigrate Boston and its fans. The most passionate fan of any team in our office would be John Manuel, who has been a diehard Red Sox fan since he was a small child. John, in fact, is so devout a Sox fan that he served time in detention in high school for body-checking a friend who had the audacity to make fun of Bill Buckner following a certain game that all Red Sox fans remember. It's always possible that our ranking of the Red Sox won't prove accurate in time. If so, it will be simply because we were wrong, not because of our hidden agenda. Now onto new business . . . The Rangers have recently signed a prospect out of the Dominican Republic named Omar Beltre for what has been called a "significant" bonus. Do you have any information about this signing and how Beltre could affect the team?
Thanks,
I asked our Rangers correspondent, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News, about the Beltre signing. He said the 17-year-old righthander got somewhere in between the $400,000 righthander Leiby Guzman signed for last March and $1 million. That gives you a little bit of a range, but the bottom line is that's a fairly significant signing bonus for a Dominican player, even in the shadows of Wilin Aybar's $1.4 million deal with the Dodgers, etc. Also significant, Grant says, is that the Rangers plan to start Beltre out in the Rookie-level Gulf Coast League this summer, skipping him over the Dominican Summer League. Grant also reports that Jorge Diaz, who finally made it to camp last week, is working out with Triple-A Oklahoma and will remain in minor league camp. So his visa snafu cost him whatever slim chance he had at making the Opening Day roster. Veteran Luis Alicea has the second-base job for now, but his grasp is not firm, with Frank Catalanotto nipping at his heels. I am a senior at Wittenberg University and upon graduation this May I will begin working for the Mahoning Valley Scrappers in the NY-Penn League. I am trying to find out complete information on seat licenses. What are they exactly and what are they designed to do? If you have any information on this topic available, I would be most appreciative. Also, I am writing a paper in my Economics of Sports class concerning the relationship between a team's success on the diamond and their continued success at the ticket office. Do you have any information related to this issue. Anything you have would be helpful.
Thank You,
Seat licenses have come into vogue as a way to help finance new stadium projects. A seat license buys a fan the right to buy season tickets. It's not really a deposit on the tickets, because it doesn't go toward the cost of the tickets. It's a brilliant scheme on the part of team owners, and also a way for fans to help finance stadiums without using public money. You might wonder why a fan would pay $1,000 or whatever, just for the right to pay more money to buy season tickets. But why do alumni donate money to their college athletics departments? It's a way for some fans to support something they truly enjoy. As for attendance, we've concluded over the years that winning and attendance are largely unrelated in minor league baseball. There may be some correlation at the higher levels, but at the lower levels winning doesn't really draw fans to the park. And minor league playoff games are poor draws as a rule. Let's take a look at last year's league champions and where they finished in the attendance race in their league.
*Wilmington and Myrtle Beach were declared co-champions of the Carolina League after Hurricane Floyd forced the cancellation of the final series. I guess if you want your team to win the league championship, you'd do well in most cases to keep people away from your home games. Maybe teams concentrate better in a quiet ballpark. Actually, the truth is, minor league fans don't go to games because they care if the team wins or loses. They go for the promotions, because it's a reasonably priced family outing and it's fun. They also go to show their support for the team and the players. Like in the major leagues, a new stadium is just about a guarantee that a minor league team will draw. But unlike big league fans, minor league patrons don't seem to worry about the results. The Expos just included Ted Lilly in the Irabu trade, as one of the two players to be named later. You guys had him rated 6th on the Expos prospect list. But he did get bombed in the major leagues late last season. How do you see him fitting into the Yanks pitching prospects? Is he a starter or reliever? Also, who do you think will be the other player when the deal is completed? A third pitcher? On another matter,could you explain slugging percentage? How is the stat figured mathematically, and what does it really mean? Thanks, I love your magazine and Website. Jim Lilly would probably fit in somewhere in the 11-15 range on the Yankees list. He throws an excellent curveball, which was the best in the Expos system. He did get bombed in his big league time last year, but he was battling bone chips in his elbow, for which he had surgery after the season. So his 0-1, 7.61 numbers don't necessarily tell the whole story. Lilly was regarded by the Expos as a starter long-term, though there might not be much opportunity in the starting ranks with the Yankees, unless lefthander Ed Yarnall fails as the No. 5 starter. They don't seem likely to include two rookies in the rotation at the same time. The third player in the deal is believed to be a pitcher. The rumor I've seen was righthander Mike Johnson, a hard thrower who has struggled in his big league opportunities. The two teams have until June 22 to complete the trade, so a 1999 draftee could be included. Slugging percentage is simply total bases divided by at-bats. It basically puts power numbers into an average form so it's a better tool to compare power hitters than simply raw numbers for home runs, etc. I would like to know about Allen Dina, a minor league player in the Mets organization. He had incredible numbers last year at St. Lucie in the Fla. State league--in 85 games, .344-12-47 and 34 steals--unbelievable for a half season in a pitcher's league. He is not rated one of the top 10 prospects in the league, however. In fact, he's not even listed anywhere in the top 15 prospects of the Mets organization. I did note that when he was promoted to Binghamton (AA) he did nothing: .229-0-15 and 9 steals. Is he considered at all a viable prospect? And can you explain how he had such a great season at A ball--and no recognition? Michael Stern Dina is an interesting player. He's 26 but has been playing pro ball for just two seasons. He signed in 1998 as a nondrafted fifth-year senior out of St. Leo College in Florida. And he crushed Florida State League pitching in the first half of the season last year. Dina was able to sign his first pro contract at 24, because the Mets figured his circumstances were unusual enough for them to overlook his age. They signed him to a $500 bonus, which is about the smallest bonus you're going to find these days. The odds are long on him becoming an impact player in the big leagues, but if he reaches New York his story will be a fun one, even if he's just there for a cup of coffee. Does a year spend on the DL (i.e. Wood) count as a full season for arbitration and free-agency purposes?
Thanks,
Yes, time on the DL counts as service time. The only exception is that it doesn't count against Rookie of the Year eligibility. So when Chipper Jones spent the 1994 season on the disabled list, he got credit for a year of service time, but was still a rookie in 1995. What exactly is a simulated game? You hear about pitchers on rehab participating in simulated games but I've never got an explanation.
Thanks.
A simulated game is basically a structured practice, where a pitcher will throw to hitters, simulating a real game experience. Pitchers will generally throw simulation games as one of the steps of their rehab, before they go on a minor league rehab assignment and throw in an actual game. March 16, 2000 Welcome to the new, twice-a-week Ask BA. It looks and feels much like the old, three-times-a-week version, but just a little less frequently. As many of you have mentioned in your e-mails, this column has helped us all get through the offseason. But now it's time to gear up for the new season, and there are a lot of things we want to work on here. For starters, we're completely overhauling our minor league team pages--in the hopes of actually giving people a reason to visit them this year. (They were kind of, um, sparse last year.) We're also excited about bringing back features from last season like the Howe Daily Highlights, PSX major league reports, Today's Matchup, etc. We're really excited about Year II of Baseball America Online, but there are only so many hours in the day and at this point in time, Ask BA is going to take a tiny squeeze. We've got a couple of good questions for you today, though, thanks to the minor league talent rankings. BA, Why is it that as the Red Sox organization gets better on the field it's ranking in BA stays down at absurd middle to low levels? Take a look at your rankings the last couple of years and see how far off they've been. Now this year 14th? 21st minor league? What team have I been watching in the playoffs? Whose prospects are contributing, delivering top quality players in trades and climbing steadily through the minors? Why is it that the Sox expanded presence in international signings is taken as a strength everywhere else but as a weakness by BA? Oh well. I'll enjoy seeing you proved wrong again this summer. Frank Let's make sure we all understand what the rankings are actually ranking. We ranked the Red Sox No. 7 in major league talent. If they play to the capabilities of their talent, that puts them in the playoffs. And in the last few years under Jimy Williams, they've always played better than their talent. The only way they'll prove us wrong this summer is by underperforming and not making the playoffs. Where the Sox ranked low was in the minor league talent rankings. They were slotted in at No. 21 due to a lack of depth in positional prospects, specifically up-the-middle players. Their organizational depth was not helped last year when they failed to sign their fourth-through ninth-round picks. The Asian pitchers they've added have certainly helped deepen their system, but they're not as deep as most organizations overall. As for our rankings the last couple of years, it's only fair if you're using a barometer of major league success to go by our major league talent rankings. In 1998 we ranked the Sox 13th. They finished with the fifth best record in the major leagues. Last year we ranked them 12th and they finished with the ninth best record. So they did perform better than their talent ranking would have projected. But, does talent always equal wins? Not necessarily. Ask the Dodgers about the 1999 season. They had a lot of talent, but they didn't play very well as a team. Conversely, a team can play better than its talent. I don't mean this as a knock, because it's quite an accomplishment to maximize the talent that you have. If you look at the Red Sox of 1999, there were two players on their roster that stood out as top of the league talents. What Jimy Williams did with the rest of that roster is amazing. He gets excellent results every season. But he does it with a lineup that man for man doesn't stack up talentwise with some of the other teams in the majors. Come on, guys. I understand the Yankees are America's darlings but the Marlins do beat them out in this category (minor league talent). Florida gave the Yankees Ed Yarnall to complete the trade of Mike Lowell because he really did not have the long-term potential as the other arms in the systems. But once he got to the Yanks he the second coming of Tom Glavine. Plus I do believe what made that trade was not Yarnall but Class A pitcher Todd Noel. Hey, don't get me wrong I think the Yanks have an outstanding farm system but Florida has what everybody wants you said in the article that is quality power pitcher not just one or two probable five or six. I understand the media and the press don't want to give the Marlins any credit seeing they are a laughing stock of baseball but give credit where credit is due.
Thank you,
Let the record show that we did rank the Marlins No. 2 in minor league talent, which I would say gives them some credit. We also included eight Marlins on our Top 100 Prospects list, the most of any organization. We have never been shy about giving the Marlins credit during their rebuilding. In fact, at times we may have given them too much credit. The Marlins have assembled an impressive array of talent. Dave Dombrowski has managed to acquire legitimate prospects in nearly every deal he's pulled off, even when it looked like he had little leverage to work with. But the one concern with the Marlins system is that many of their prospects failed to step forward and turn their physical tools into baseball results last year. As David Rawnsley says in the talent rankings, "the organization's emphasis on pure tools has resulted in a lack of plate-management skills for both hitters and pitchers." Just wondering what your take is on Milwaukee prospect Cristian Guerrero. Could he be for the Brewers what Vlad has become for the Expos?
Thanks,
Cristian was ranked conservatively at No. 10 on the Brewers Top 10 list due to his inexperience, but he has the ability to climb that list quickly if he performs. He's at the same level as his cousin Vladimir was at the same age. Back in 1995, Vladimir stamped himself as a top prospect in the low Class A South Atlantic League, hitting .333 with 47 extra-base hits. Cristian will head to the Midwest League this season, where he will play for Beloit. If he hits Class A pitching like he did Pioneer League pitching last year, he could quickly establish himself as the gem of the Brewers organization. I don't want to go too heavy on the Vladimir comparisons right now, because that's not really fair to Cristian. He's a talented young player, while Vladimir is one of the best talents in the big leagues today. It's going to be difficult for any prospect to live up to expectations like that. But Cristian is definitely a player to keep an eye on, especially if you're a Brewers fan. The Guerrero family is an interesting case study in that they have shown no loyalty to any one organization when it comes to signing that first contract. Wilton was the first to sign, in October 1991, with the Dodgers. Vladimir signed in March 1993 with the Expos. Cristian signed with the Brewers in August 1997. And Vladimir and Wilton's younger brother Julio signed with the Red Sox in January 1998. Imagine if one scout had been able to lock up the four of them for one organization. March 13, 2000 Since I wrote Friday's column, one of our topics has become a little more newsworthy than I had imagined it would. Jorge "The Spider" Diaz has been denied an entry visa to come to the United States. I had been under the impression that he was already in camp, which was obviously incorrect. I did not, as one reader suggested, get him confused with Edwin Diaz. I simply had thought I'd already heard he was in camp. He wasn't. Diaz' agent, Joe Kehoskie, is hopeful the visa problem will be straightened out shortly, but for the moment Diaz is stuck in the Dominican Republic. If you're interested in reading more on Diaz' plight, we've got a story just for you. His trouble is par for the course this spring for the Rangers. They've had minor injuries keep both John Wetteland and Mike Venafro out of exhibition play and Sunday Rusty Greer came up lame. He's been bothered with a sore ankle this spring, but it got worse yesterday and he's going to have it examined this week. There could be bone chips that will need to be removed before he can play comfortably again. If that's the case, the Rangers will have a completely different Opening Day outfield than they had last year: Chad Curtis, Ruben Mateo and Gabe Kapler vs. Greer, Tom Goodwin and Juan Gonzalez. The race in the AL West could be wide open this year. Speaking of the AL West, speculation has the Diamondbacks moving there before long. Here's a question on the topic of realignment. So it appears that the Devil Rays are looking forward to coming to the National League, as are their fans. It also appears that the Diamondbacks are opposed to going to the AL, as are their fans. It is just me or does it seem like the bulk of the baseball fans (and teams) prefer the No DH rule? Are there any more rumblings that baseball will try again to adopt NL rules in both leagues? Is all of baseball being held hostage by the players association for just 14 DH jobs?
Thanks for your help,
There's more to the Diamondbacks resistance than the DH. Their big issue is that they feel like the division rivals they have in the NL West are more appealing than the teams they would face off against in the AL West. It appears their pleas will fall on deaf ears, however, and their long tradition in the NL will end after three short seasons. There does seem to be a lot of players and managers out there who despise the DH. I hope they can win over everyone else and purge the game of the DH "experiment." Theoretically, the union likes the DH rule because it provides 14 high-paying jobs for 14 formidable offensive stars. But the truth is, the number of star players who DH full-time or nearly full-time is substantially fewer than 14. Here's the list of every player to DH more than 80 games last year: Harold Baines, Jose Canseco, Marty Cordova, Chili Davis, John Jaha, Edgar Martinez, Rafael Palmeiro and Frank Thomas. Palmeiro, as you all know, won the Gold Glove at first base, despite his limited time in the field. So he shouldn't really be considered with this group. That leaves Baines, Canseco, Cordova, Davis, Jaha, Martinez and Thomas as the seven guys the union is fighting so hard to keep in baseball. Davis retired, so make that six. Cordova was invited to spring training as a nonroster player by the Red Sox this year. He is not the high-priced superstar the DH rule is supposed to be providing a job for. So reduce your pool to five. If they had to play defense, all but Baines could. Not that Martinez would be an asset at first base, but he could do the job. Remember, in the old days, fading superstars were put out to pasture at first base. So is the union fighting to keep Harold Baines in baseball? I'm trying to find numbers on how many extra tickets the Orioles will sell this year because Baines is on their roster, but those are hard to come by. I believe his family members are generally entitled to comp tickets, so they don't really count. I'd love for the union to trade the DH rule off for some other concession in the next round of collective bargaining. Heck, Harold Baines will probably be retired by then anyway. I was wondering about what you thought about Mets prospect Juan LeBron. When the Mets traded for him people were raving that he could be the next Juan Gonzalez. However, he did not play last year because of shoulder problems. This spring he is in the major league camp and once again being compared to a certain Tiger. Is he for real? When I looked up his stats for 1997 and 1998 they were nothing special. His plate judgement could be better. What do you think? sethphill@aol.com It was actually an elbow problem, not a shoulder problem, that cost LeBron his 1999 season. Apparently he's back in shape enough to impress Mets manager Bobby Valentine, who said, "He's as near to Juan Gonzalez as I've ever seen. Their abilities are similar. They have the same body type. The ball comes off his bat the same." Valentine is hardly the first one to draw the comparison between LeBron and fellow Puerto Rican Gonzalez. The association has been made since LeBron was taken in the first round of the 1995 draft. I don't think LeBron will ever be the run producer that Gonzalez is, simply because Gonzalez is one of the best sluggers in the game. But he does have all the tools to become an above-average major league player. It will be interesting to see what LeBron can do this year. The Mets farm system is thin at this point and it would be a real boost for them if he could step forward with a big season. As for his strike-zone judgment, LeBron has struck out 307 times and drawn just 90 walks as a pro. He did make a big improvement there in 1998, walking a career high 57 times. By the way, Gonzalez never walked more than 32 times in any minor league season, for whatever that's worth. March 10, 2000 Judging from the mail we receive, I'm going to rank Brewers fans as among the most optimistic in the game. I know I've said before that I'm not sure they have good reason to be optimistic, but it's refreshing to see, nonetheless. Today we have an interesting question from a Brewers fan about two trades that are yet to be completed. They both bear watching, but it will likely be a few more months before the deals are done. Before we get to that, though, a quick followup on Ben Christensen. Reader Josh Chrisman wrote in to say that Christensen had a slight hamstring problem early in camp and had been unable to fully participate. That may have contributed to his early exit as well, though he was not destined to stick around much longer than he did for reasons discussed on Wednesday. I have two questions. They both involve trades for players to be named later. I have been reading raving spring training reviews of ex-Brewer Fernando Vina. As a Brewer fan, I saw that he was traded to St. Louis for Juan Acevedo and two players to be named later. Now I know these guys are '99 draft picks--supposedly high ones. So will the Brewers be able to get at least one of they guys BA has rated as one of the Cards' top ten prospects: Nick Stocks, Chance Caple, or Ben Johnson? The Brewers recently acquired Mark Sweeney and a player to be named later from Cincinnati in exchange for outfielder Alex Ochoa. The same questions relate here. Will the Brew Crew pick up Ty Howington or Ben Broussard?
Thanks,
I asked Tom Haudricourt, our Brewers correspondent, what he'd heard about these deals. He said the two players to be named in the Vina deal are supposed to be 1999 draft picks. But Stocks, Caple and Johnson won't be the guys. Part of the player to be named rule says the deal must be completed within six months. Vina went from Milwaukee to St. Louis on December 20. That gives the Cardinals until June 20 to complete the trade. But there's another rule, that we in fact discussed here on Wednesday, that says a player can't be traded until a year after he signs his first contract. Stocks signed last Aug. 29, Caple signed July 15 and Johnson signed June 24. Of course, I can't imagine that any of the three would have been included anyway, but if my reading of the rules is correct, it's impossible for them to be part of this transaction. So who does that leave? Well, the Cardinals had a third first-rounder last year, first baseman Chris Duncan. He signed June 23, so he's out. Josh Pearce, their second-rounder and No. 11 prospect, signed June 18. He's a possibility. Third-rounder B.R. Cook, a righthander who pitched at New Jersey with Pearce, also signed June 18. Righthander Jim Journell (fourth) didn't sign until Aug. 12; he's out. Outfielder Charles Williams (fifth) signed June 30. Righthander Josh Teekel (sixth) didn't sign until July 10. Of St. Louis' remaining picks in the first 10 rounds, only second baseman Covelli Crisp (seventh), catcher Shawn Schumacher (eighth) and lefthander Kevin Sprague (10th) signed before June 20. So, if my calculations are correct, your pool of players, assuming they come from the top 10 rounds of the draft, comprises Pearce, Cook, Crisp, Schumacher and Sprague. Just for fun, I'll guess Pearce and Crisp are the guys. But we'll have to wait until June 18 to find out if I'm right. The same six-month rule means that Howington won't be the guy in the Ochoa deal. He didn't sign until Aug. 27 and the Ochoa deal took place Jan. 14. And Broussard is not going to be included because Jim Bowden knows you don't give up one of your top prospects for a backup outfielder. If that deal involves a 1999 draftee, and Haudricourt said he hadn't heard that it would, it will have to be someone who signed before July 14, so start your looking with that in mind. Hey, Great site, and great magazine. I love both. I have a question about Sean Burroughs. With Phil Nevin's recent ankle injury, and the option of having Ed "all-star courtesy of Jason Kendall" Sprague at 3rd, are the Pads considering keeping Burroughs up when they break camp? Can you see his ETA being pushed up if he dominates Double-A pitching? Or will the Pads take a Nick Johnson-Pat Burrell-plenty of seasoning approach?
Thanks,
I can see no possible turn of events that lands Sean Burroughs on the Padres' Opening Day roster. This is going to sound familiar, because it's what I said about Corey Patterson. Give these guys a chance to learn how to play in the minor leagues. I hope the same fans that are salivating over jumping guys from the Midwest League to the big leagues are not going to be the same ones complaining when the rookies struggle and don't play fundamental baseball. Ed Sprague might not be the guy everyone stands in line to see, but he's the kind of player that can be useful to a team because he can buy them a year or two while they wait for someone down on the farm. Last year the Pirates used him to fill in while they farmed Aramis Ramirez out. This year the Padres can use him and Phil Nevin at third base and try to resist any urge to call Burroughs to town. I don't really see the Burroughs temptation being as strong as the Patterson temptation in Chicago, either. I can see San Diego keeping Burroughs in Double-A all year, or maybe moving him to Triple-A at the break if he's really tearing it up. Fans will have to settle for a September callup. I have a question about Jorge "The Spider" Diaz. Who is this man? Another newspaper (USA Today) had a one-line glowing reference to him as in the mix for the Texas 2B position in 2000. I promise not to follow him until BA says so.
Thanks,
Tom, you can follow Diaz. Don't get overly excited, but keep an eye on him this spring, if he ever makes it to camp. The Rangers signed him to a minor league deal with a big league invitation, but he's having trouble getting a visa. (For more on that, see our news story.) Rangers scouting director Chuck McMichael was quite impressed with Diaz, who worked out at the Rangers' DSL academy after signing in February. BUT . . . Diaz is a guy who signed for a reported $50,000 a year and a half after defecting from Cuba. He first went to Nicaragua, but didn't get residency there. Then he went to Costa Rica, last February, and moved to the Dominican in October. The demand wasn't strong for him and Osmani Garcia, the other player the Rangers signed, to say the least. Diaz, who turns 31 next week (not 25 as he and the Rangers claim), also hasn't played competitively since 1997, so he's got some lost time to make up. The odds are strongly against him breaking camp with the Rangers. But if he can get his stroke back in the minor leagues, he might be able to help Texas later in the year. His signature is his glovework, which is what earned him his nickname. March 8, 2000 For no good reason at all we've got a handful of Cubs questions for you today. Cubs fans throughout the nation have had a busy week of sending in their questions. And it's only Wednesday. Take the rest of the week off, Cub fans. My fellow Cub fans have been arguing about whether finances/free agency will impact Corey Patterson's odds of making the team, and also when Kerry Wood will become a free agent. Let me focus the questions. Normally a player becomes arbitration-eligible after 3 years, and free-agent eligible after 6. But 1/6 of the 2-year guys become arbitration eligible before completing 3 full years. Thus, by sending Kerry Wood to Iowa for the first 3 weeks of '98 the Cubs did not set back his arbitration clock. The same should apply if Patterson gets farmed but comes up after a few weeks. But will a few weeks in the minors set back Kerry and Corey's free agency, or not? In other words, does the same 1/6 exception apply for free agency as for arbitration? And if not, is it then possible that Wood could go through arbitration 4 times rather than the normal 3 times prior to free agency?
Thanks in advance!
P.S.: One other rules technicality. For how long is a player unavailable to be traded? For one year after he signs? For one year after his draft day? Or simply during the summer of his draft? In other words, could the Cubs trade Ben Christensen right now, and if not how long until they have the right to do so? For a player to be eligible for free agency, he must have a minimum of six years service time. This is different from the arbitration rules, where the top one-sixth (in terms of service time) of the players between two and three years of service are eligible for arbitration. That does mean that theoretically Wood--or any of the "super-twos"--could go through arbitration four times. I hope you're speaking hypothetically about Patterson coming up after a few weeks. Obviously it's tempting to picture a guy with his tools in center field for the Cubs, but the guy has a grand total of 112 pro games under his belt. As good as he is, it seems like he really would benefit from at least another half a season in the minor leagues. A player can't be traded until a year after he signs. In Christensen's case, he cannot be traded until after June 25, which is the one-year anniversary of his signing. Not that there are any rumors of him on the block or rumors that the Cubs want to deal him. Let's not start anything like that. Speaking of Christensen, here's another question on the Cubs' 1999 first-rounder. What message should we get from the Cubs sending first rounder Ben Christensen out of camp so early? Were they just protecting him and the team from negative media, or was there another reason? Most other first-rounders are still in camp, including the likes of high school first-rounders Jason Stumm and Ty Howington. What happened?
Nate Rackley
The Cubs are one of the first teams to play this year, with their season opening on March 29 against the Mets in Tokyo. They've also got two exhibition games scheduled before that against Japanese teams on the 27th and 28th. They need to finalize their roster nearly a week before most other teams, and that gives them less time to look over guys who are obviously not in the plans for Opening Day, like Christensen. I wouldn't read anything into him being sent to minor league camp already. Most other first-rounders from last year will be assigned to minor league camp within the next week. In fact, the White Sox sent two of them out yesterday, with righthanders Rob Purvis and Stumm (and second-rounder Danny Wright) being reassigned to minor league camp. The Cubs just had to take care of business earlier than everyone else, because they play earlier than everyone else. Hi, your list of this years draft order had the Cubs picking third and the Royals picking fourth. Why are the Cubs picking earlier even though they won more games last year (67 to 64)?
Thanks,
The draft alternates between AL and NL teams, with the NL team with the worst record picking first in even numbered years. That puts the Marlins No. 1 and the Cubs No. 3, as the two teams with the worst records in the NL last year. Hey there. I thought I'd throw some closer questions at ya. First, any thoughts on who's going to get the job with the Twins? Who do you think will get the lion's share of the 15 to 20 save opportunities the Twins actually generate this year. Second, Francisco Cordero of the Rangers. Do you think he's going to start out the year in Triple-A? OK, I lied. I have a non-closer question for you. Calvin Pickering. Is his weight the only problem, or is there something else the Orioles don't like about him? It seems that, in having Clark for another year and re-signing both Baines and Conine in the offseason, they were determined to make sure there was no opening for him with the team this spring.
Thanks
Even though Dan admits he lied, I'll answer all three questions. My best guess on the Twins' closer quandary would be that Bobby Ayala will emerge as the saves guy in their pen. I could see him picking up 20 saves this year. I've read in a few places that some people think Bob Wells will be the guy, but I don't see him as the closer type. For one thing, he struck out just one hitter for every two innings of work last year, and that was his best ever season. He's got a 5.17 career ERA and has just three saves to his credit. I'm not saying that Ayala is a world-beater, but he has pitched well at times during his career, and has closed before. And the Twins pool isn't exactly brimming with other top candidates. Ayala has been bit by the long ball throughout his career and the Heftydome isn't exactly the best place for a gopherball artist to work. But if anyone can afford a couple of blown saves, it's probably the Twins. I wouldn't be shocked to see Cordero start the season at Triple-A Oklahoma. He hasn't ever pitched at Triple-A before and the experience might be valuable for him. He did have some control problems in Detroit last fall, walking 18 hitters in 19 innings. If he does open at Oklahoma, I wouldn't expect him to be down there long, though. And if he pitches well in spring training, he has a legitimate shot at breaking camp with the big league team. Pickering isn't the only young player the Orioles seem to have buried. It's really kind of funny that they want to put off signing Charles Johnson to an extension because they don't want to block Jayson Werth after they've given no thought whatsoever to blocking prospects over the past couple of years. Jerry Hairston still isn't assured of winning the second base job this year, though he can run circles around Delino DeShields (and still hit and field better at the same time). Burying young players is kind of their M.O. lately, and I don't think it's anything about Pickering in particular. Pickering's numbers at Triple-A Rochester really weren't that bad last year, though everyone seems to overlook him as a prospect these days. Sure it was a step down from his 1998 performance at Double-A Bowie, but some of that can probably be chalked up to the lack of motivation brought on by seeing that he had no chance to crack the Orioles lineup regardless of what he did. I'm not condoning the let-up, but Pickering was hardly the first guy to sulk through a season in the minor leagues. And he rebounded with a solid showing in the Arizona Fall League. I'd say Pickering deserves a shot to see what he can do, but that's not going to happen unless Will Clark gets hurt. And what are the odds of that happening? They must be about 1-in-1 or so. Hmmm . . . chalk Big Cal up for a couple of hundred at-bats this summer. March 6, 2000 I got to see baseball on television for the first time this year on Saturday when the Cubs faced off against the Giants. There's nothing I love more than hearing Chip Caray make fun of Steve Stone, over and over and over. Other than their playful banter, the most memorable moment for me had to be Corey Patterson's blast off lefty Alan Embree. That was fun to see. As for Sunday's action, here are a few notable notes: Josh Hamilton doubled home the winning run in Tampa Bay's split-squad victory over Atlanta. Byung-Hyun Kim worked a perfect ninth against the White Sox to pick up his first save of the spring. (Look out, Matt Mantei!) Cardinals righthander Chad Hutchinson pitched three scoreless innings, allowing one hit and two walks while striking out three. Tomokazu Ohka allowed six consecutive hits and five runs against the Twins in an outing he'd probably like to forget. Indians third baseman Russ Branyan went 3-for-3 with an opposite field homer off Billy Koch. It's sure nice to have some actual results to look at again. As for today's column, there are still a few questions lingering from the Top 100 Prospects. Most of them sound similar to this. Why are some players ranked higher than others in the team rankings, but lower in the top 100? (Jimmy Rollins/Brett Myers) Do you use different criteria when doing the top 100? Also, I know that you are running around doing many things, but would it be possible to rank the organizations in terms of minor league depth, or at least break down the top 100 in terms of organizations?
Thanks,
Will Lingo addressed this question during his chat on ESPN.com last week. I'll go straight to his chat transcripts for the answer. This is a frequently asked question, and with good reason. We have about 10 different people who do Top 10 Prospects lists for us, with national correspondent David Rawnsley doing the large majority of them. Those lists are put together based on our own research and talking with scouts, managers, front-office people and the like. When we meld that all into a top 100, Rawnsley, editor Allan Simpson and I are the main contributors to the list. We all rank a personal top 150 and combine those in a raw list. We have a long discussion and make adjustments to the list, and we bounce it off other people as well. You end up with different results than the top 10s sometimes because we each have our own opinions about where players should go in relation to each other. When you put them all together it inevitably brings results that are sometimes different from the top 10s. We think that's OK because these are all just tools to help you and us determine the most promising players. Besides, things can change even from when a top 10 list is put together. No. 30 Abraham Nunez and No. 76 Adam Everett, for instance, don't appear on any top 10 list this year because they got traded from organizations we hadn't yet done top 10s for, to organizations whose top 10s were already completed. So we have to figure them in. Speaking of Nunez and Everett, we now have full scouting reports on them for you. Hi BA, A couple of years ago Ron Wright came close to being the Pirates' opening day first baseman. But serious back problems caused him to spend most of the last two years on the DL. I see that he has been acquired by the Reds, and is in their major league camp. Has his back recovered? Do the Reds see him as a true prospect, or is this one of those cases where there's nothing to lose by inviting him to camp? I saw him in the Southern League in '96, and he hit some shots that may not have come down yet.
Thanks and keep up the good work,
Wright was claimed on waivers by the Reds last October. The Pirates decided they didn't have room to keep him on their roster, so they had to waive him to clear a spot. They were hopeful that he would be back in action, but didn't want to risk a roster spot without knowing for sure. I guess it's fair to say the Reds have nothing to lose by inviting Wright to camp, but it looks like they might have a lot to gain. This isn't like inviting Brien Taylor to camp. Wright is back in action this spring. In three games he's 2-for-4 with an RBI. I don't like his chances to make the big league roster with Casey at first, because I can't see the Reds keeping him on the bench after he hasn't really played for two years. But if his back is healthy, and it appears it is--so far--he could turn out to be a handy guy to have around later in the season after he gets some Triple-A at-bats. Jim Bowden is the master of the waiver wire, and this could be another one of his gems. We are trying to find out who Cleveland got for Tommy John when he went to the White Sox, can you help us?
Thank you,
According to The Sporting News Register, John was sent to Chicago in a three-way deal on January 20, 1965. John, catcher John Romano and outfielder Tommie Agee went from Cleveland to the White Sox for catcher Camilo Carreon and outfielder Rocky Colavito. The Sox had picked up Colavito earlier that day from the Athletics for outfielder Jim Landis and Mike Hershberger and pitcher Fred Talbot. You could say the White Sox got the best of that deal. Over the next seven seasons John reeled off ERAs of 3.08, 2.62, 2.48, 1.98, 3.26, 3,28 and 3.62 for the Sox. On Dec. 2, 1971, Chicago traded John and infielder Steve Huntz to the Dodgers for Dick Allen. March 3, 2000 For those of you who don't remember, or weren't regular readers a few months ago, we had a few questions in early November about the two Cubans that the Dodgers lost last June when MLB decided they had illegally scouted in Cuba. The second of those players, Juan Diaz, finally signed this week with the Red Sox for $400,000. Red Sox fans are wondering what they've got. I just wanted to say that I love your publication and Website and I find this column an invaluable resource! I saw that the Red Sox yesterday signed Juan Carlos Diaz, the 24-year-old, Cuban-born first baseman who was declared a free agent after the Dodgers had scouted him against MLB rules. Where do you see him playing this year (AA-Trenton) and I see that he K's too often, but would he have found himself in the Bosox' Top 15 Prospects for 2000? If not, what type of player is he and can a make a contribution at the major league level? Thanks for your time and keep up the great work!
Shane Katz
Yes, Diaz has finally landed with a new organization. It took awhile and he had to come down on his demands somewhat. Diaz is a hulking first baseman, generously listed at 6-foot-2, 228 pounds. He's basically a one-tool guy and that tool is power. He hit 30 home runs in 438 at-bats in 1998 and nine homers in his abridged season last year. I ran the Diaz signing past David Rawnsley and we discovered something: If there was an organization that Diaz was destined to play for, it was the Red Sox. Not because his righthanded swing is a natural fit for Fenway Park. No, it's more because the Red Sox seem to collect players like Diaz. Brian Daubach, Morgan Burkhart and Israel Alcantara all provide a similar package. But unlike Diaz, none of them hails from Cuba, so they didn't sign for a $400,000 bonus. I'd go as far as saying Daubach and Burkhart are better hitters than Diaz. They both hit for a higher average and strikeout significantly less. Alcantara, an outfielder, might be the best comparison, given his strikeout-to-walk ratios, and he's spent at least part of each of the last five seasons at Double-A. Does that mean Diaz is bound for Double-A Trenton this year? I wouldn't bet against it, but if I were going to take my best guess I'd say the Red Sox will send him to Triple-A Pawtucket to start the year. And I wouldn't expect him to see a lot of Boston this season. Would he have made the Red Sox Top 15? No. That doesn't mean he's not going to be an interesting guy to keep an eye on, but don't count on him being the Sox' cleanup hitter of the future. I think it's a telling sign that it took him more than eight months to find a new home. This is a guy all 29 organizations (other than the Dodgers who were ineligible to sign him) had seen for at least three years in the minor leagues--plus a season in the Dominican Summer League--and everyone had scouting reports on him. If the rumors are true that he passed up on some seven-figure offers last summer, he's a strong candidate for the Jody Reed Award. But I think if any team had signed him for a million bucks they would have eventually come off looking awfully foolish. For comparison's sake, the other player the Dodgers lost last June, when the commissioner's office ruled they had illegally scouted in Cuba, was outfielder Josue Perez. Perez, who signed with the Phillies in August for $850,000, is regarded as a much better prospect because he has more than one skill. He's almost the anti-Diaz, having no power, but a little of everything else. There was some sentiment at the time that the Phillies overpaid for his services, but they said at the time they considered him a second-round talent, so they gave him second-round money (or slightly more). He was smart to take a deal when he had a chance to get back on the field and only miss a little bit of playing time. It will be interesting to see if Diaz struggles after the long layoff. We're in danger of turning today's column into one of those theme columns, by running the next question, which is also related to international signings. But don't worry, we'll be back to randomness by the time you get to the third question. What are your thoughts on an international draft? Some people point out that the talent has been thin from Puerto Rico since they were included in the draft several years ago. Is the same argument made regarding Canada? People also argue that an international draft would help low revenue teams but I disagree. It seems some teams either price themselves out of drafting top players or are priced out. I think of Milwaukee as an excellent example. There are only a few instances where international players sign for huge dollars (El Duque, Danys Baez etc) while hundreds of 16-year-olds are signed annually for bargain rates (below $100K). Milwaukee would be much more likely to find a star player signing ten Latin players at $100K then by signing one million-dollar first-round pick. Do you think MLB should go to an international draft? John Ewing I'm not a fan of the international draft and if it comes to fruition I think you'll find it creates more problems than it solves. For one thing, you already have many of the "small-revenue" clubs shying away from players with big bonus demands in the draft. By throwing more of those players in the draft, I don't really think you'll see the bonuses decrease. If anything, they might increase, as draft inflation seems to spiral every year. You could even see the international players drive up the signing bonuses for the U.S. kids who go in the first couple of rounds of the draft. I see it having a lot of potential to backfire if the intention is holding down signing bonuses. But the real can of worms is going to come with the international players that don't get drafted. Not every Dominican kid is going to get picked in the draft, so there will have to be an avenue for signing nondrafted players, just like there is now for U.S. kids who get passed over. How I've heard the international draft working is a team will have to submit the name of any player it has an interest in drafting ahead of time, so everyone can get an equal shot at taking him. (That might not be exactly how it works if and when the international draft is implemented, but since it doesn't exist yet it's hard to know exactly what the rules are.) Let's say that hypothetically you're the international scout for a team and you stumble onto the next Vladimir Guerrero. None of the other 29 teams are aware of him. How anxious are you going to be to let other teams take their shot? Obviously the bonus would climb if there were other bidders in the mix, but look beyond the money. Maybe your organization is willing to pay the market rate for this kid because you're so sure he's going to be a star. Do you really want to submit his name and tip off all 29 other teams? Or would you prefer to come to an agreement with the kid ahead of time that you'll give him first-round money if he just lays low for a couple of months. Then, a few weeks after the draft, bam, you suddenly "discover" this new kid and sign him on the spot. There will be loopholes like this. There is no possible way to close all the loopholes that will arise. And the teams that want to be sly and get around the draft will get around it. I think the international draft is doomed to be a nightmare for MLB if they choose to go that route. In a chat over on espn.com, Will Lingo said that he felt like the Royals were the winners in the Giambi-Laxton deal. This conflicts with the analysis from every other source I had seen. Could you offer any elaboration on how the Royals could have benefitted from trading away such a highly regarded hitter? Scott Lange I turned this one over to Will, so he could answer in his very own words. Here's what he said. It's not that I'm in love with Brett Laxton, though I do think he will be a useful major league pitcher. I just have serious doubts about Jeremy Giambi. He always seems to be battling injuries and hasn't shown the consistent power he'll need to be a big league regular. His bat is clearly his only above-average tool, and his defense is pretty rough. I hate to see guys cast as DH types this early in their careers. March 1, 2000 Good morning. My question to you is, why are you reading this when you could be checking out the Top 100 Prospects or the 2000 draft order? Have you already read both of those? Okay, then you may continue reading today's column. Today we have just one question. One question that I answered at length, as it was on a topic of some interest to me. As many of you know, we've been following the Wilson Betemit case pretty closely here. It's still too early to tell how that whole thing is going to unfold in the end, but at least one reader doesn't seem to rooting for Betemit to win his case. So let me get this straight. Wilson Betemit perpetrates a fraud, willingly, knowingly or not, on the team he originally signed with by submitting papers that he was "of age," and he now has a legal right to try to ask for more money? What's up with that?
Kathy Parsons
That’s a valid question. But by the same token, the Braves sign a player who is the equivalent of a first-round pick, two years before baseball’s rules allow, get caught but still get to keep him, and this is okay with you? What's up with that? All I'm saying is, there are at least two sides to the story. Maybe it doesn't seem right that a player could try to get out of his contract four years later because he thinks he can get more money. But these things are never as simple as we’d like to think. Betemit clearly was a participant in this, but in order for me to buy that he "perpetrated a fraud," I'd have to be convinced the Braves didn't realize he was younger than 16. In most of these cases, it seems clear that both sides are involved to some degree. The Braves aren’t the only team that ever signed an underage player. Underage signings are one of the worst-kept secrets in the baseball world. We have proof that three other teams have done so, as the Devil Rays (Jossephang Bernhardt), Marlins (Ricardo Aramboles) and Dodgers (Adrian Beltre) have been punished by Major League Baseball as well. It's the way things work. Or at least, the way they used to work if Major League Baseball's new policies are having any effect. So we have a system in which teams, or representatives of teams--whether the front office is aware of everything that goes on is debatable--regularly scout 14- and 15-year-old players. In order to sign them all they needed was false documentation, and from everything we’ve heard that’s easy to come by, especially in the Dominican Republic. And let’s not forget about the agents, who have also discovered the potential of foreign players in recent years. But have you seen anyone fighting for a Dominican player who wouldn’t bring in a huge bonus if he became a free agent? Of course not, because there’s nothing in it for them. That’s fair enough because they’re businessmen. Like everyone else involved in this mess, they have an interest in jumping in, whether it's the challenge, the notoriety, the thrill of David vs. Goliath, the money or whatever else motivates them. When someone does something against the rules, you have to ask yourself why they do it. Why would a team sign a player who's not yet eligible to play? In Betemit's case he didn't really have a good season until he was 17 anyway. He's not going to get to the big leagues much quicker because he signed early. The incentive for a major league club is to sign the player before one of the other 29 teams can, and to do it quietly so another team can’t drive up the price. If you're a Dominican living in poverty and looking for an opportunity to play major league baseball, are you going to ask a lot of questions if a scout comes along and offers you $10,000 or $20,000 (or in Betemit's case $32,500)? Yes, teams are giving these players an opportunity. But they're also taking advantage of the situation to bring talent in at a price far below what they would pay in the United States. Betemit was the No. 2 prospect in the Appalachian League last year and is No. 99 on our Top 100 Prospects list. Had he been eligible for the draft, it's fair to say that he would have been taken in the first round. Almost every first-rounder last year signed for at least a million dollars. So should Betemit, or any other young player who signed for a pittance, be able to become a free agent the moment it seems he’s worth a million bucks? That's not an easy question either. The Braves have invested money in Betemit's development, and maybe he's turned into a good prospect because of their efforts. Should they be left with nothing? I think the answer is yes. Nothing against the Braves, who have one of the best organizations in the game. But if you know you risk losing a player if you sign him too early, that gives you more incentive to wait. Because a $100,000 fine and a little bad press aren't going to change anyone's signing habits. Got a question? Send it to askba@baseballamerica.com. |
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