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 By James Bailey If you have a question, send it to askba@baseballamerica.com. April 27, 2000 I'm going to start today by going back to Tuesday's discussion on building an organization through pitching prospects. Reader Paul Covert wrote in and said he thought 50 percent was a little on the optimistic side for top pitching prospects making it in the big leagues as regulars. He looked through the Top 100 Prospects lists from 1990-95 and found that of the 14 pitchers who were ranked in the top 10, half of them made successes of themselves: Steve Avery, Ben McDonald, Arthur Rhodes, Pedro Martinez, Jason Bere, Allen Watson and James Baldwin. The other seven: Kiki Jones, Todd Van Poppel, Roger Salkeld, Brien Taylor, Frank Rodriguez, Tyrone Hill and Jose Silva. This got me thinking about going a little deeper in the rankings. So I went through the Top 100 lists from 1990-95 and looked at all the pitchers who were ranked among the top 50 players from those six years. There were 88 (some appeared more than once, but I counted them only one time). Of those 88, 38 have seen what I would subjectively refer to as success. That's 43 percent. For some, "success" is a tough call. Baldwin, for example, has won more than 11 games in each of the past four seasons. But he also owns a 5.19 career ERA. Is that the success you are looking for with the No. 8 prospect (and highest rated pitcher on the list) in 1994? Maybe not, but I included him in the winners bracket because he he's entering his fifth consecutive season as a mainstay in Chicago's rotation. As for the Marlins, to put it scientifically, they will actually be bucking the odds if two of their four young studs become major league successes (not three as I said earlier). I think they will, but we'll have to check back in a couple of years to see where they fall. It was very interesting your comments on the Marlins and White Sox minor league pitching depth. I am curious on how you would rank the Royals in the mix. The Royals have an incredible number of pitchers who could make an impact in the next couple of years: righthanded starters Kyle Snyder, Dan Reichert, Jeff Austin, Chad Durbin, Junior Guerrero, Mike MacDougal and Brian Sanches, lefthanders Chris George and Jimmy Gobble, and relief pitchers Orber Moreno, Lance Carter, Robbie Morrison and Jay Gehrke. Llimback@aol.com The Royals do have an impressive collection of young pitchers. Snyder, George and Austin are all potential No. 1 or 2 starters, and Guerrero could be in that class as well. I'd rank them not far behind the White Sox and Marlins. They probably have more depth then the Marlins, but it's tough to match Anderson, Beckett, Burnett and Penny as a foursome. Reichert is working out of the bullpen now and I'm not sure what the Royals plan for his future. I've heard some people say with his fastball and slider combo he'd make a nice closer. Either way, I think breaking a guy in in a relief role is a good way to go, because it keeps him from racking up a lot of innings his first year or two in the big leagues. I really enjoy this column a lot, but I do have a single complaint. It seems to me that the Red Sox get little credit for the pitching talent in their minor league system. With all the talk about the Marlins and White Sox, why is there no mention of the Red Sox' Triple-A (and even lower level) pitching? Tomo Ohka, Jin Ho Cho, Sunny Kim (who, at 22, quietly blew away the best hitting prospects in the game last fall in the AFL), Juan Pena (hurt, but pitchers often return from elbow MCL surgery with increased velocity, and he's only 22), and Brian Rose (poor start this year, but formerly 17-5 in Triple-A) make up a pretty good crop of arms. Each has had similar (or better) minor league success when compared with the White Sox' and Marlins' big guns. And that's just at Triple-A and the majors! Jason Sekany (Triple-A) has improved every year, Paxton Crawford is off to a good start in Double-A, and Brad Baker's been excellent at Augusta. Throw in Seung Song (No. 1 overall pick in Korean draft) and Mat Thompson (2nd round '99), who both throw mid-90s, and Casey Fossum, all of whom had excellent debuts last summer. Having Pedro has helped them sign some quality Dominican arms too. Seems to me their system is really underrated, perhaps because many of their best arms are Asian, and represent relatively unknown commodities.
Zach Nightingale
At the risk of incurring the wrath of Red Sox fans again (please, send your hate mail to your Congressman or somewhere else this time), I'm going to say I wouldn't include the Red Sox in this discussion. To me, they have maybe a little better than average a collection of arms. What separates them from the others is that I don't see any potential No. 1 starters in their system. For depth, Ohka, Cho, Kim, Song, Baker, Fossum, Thompson, Sekany and Crawford isn't a bad group. I'm not counting Rose, because he's already thrown 139 big league innings and isn't rookie eligible any more. Pena may come back from his arm trouble, but when you talk about why pitching prospects flame out, injuries are the No. 1 reason, so it's hard to have as much enthusiasm for him until we see the comeback. With Pedro in place, if the Sox can nail down a good No. 2 starter, perhaps this corps of arms will be good enough to round out a real good rotation for the next few years in Boston. But I still wouldn't rank them with the Marlins, White Sox, Royals, etc. When do we get to turn up the hype-o-meter a couple notches regarding Bobby Bradley? One year out of high school he has the following numbers after four starts at low A Hickory: 4-0, 3 earned runs allowed in 26 innings with an incredible 43 strikeouts and an equally incredible 2 walks. Do you think the Pirates should promote him to Lynchburg soon or would Bradley be better served by continuing to dominate in the Sally League? Hickory, by the way, has to be one of the more interesting teams in the low minors. They have four of the Pirates Top 10 prospects (Tony Alvarez, J.R. House, and Luis Torres in addition to Bradley), plus Jeremy Cotten (a second-round pick in 1998, who appears to be back from the dead with 11 doubles in 76 at-bats after a terrible 1999), and Jovanny Sosa, who still lacks patience but is still only 19. These guys are all young and should rise through the system together in the coming years. Have you seen them play yet?
Best wishes,
I think you can turn up the hype-o-meter on Bradley any time now. The guy has been awesome so far this year. But if I were the Pirates farm director, I'd leave him in Hickory until at least midseason. I can see moving guys quickly through the upper levels, but I prefer seeing young guys spend some time at low Class A. There's nothing wrong with letting him dominate the South Atlantic League for a couple of months before moving him to the next challenge. I haven't seen Hickory play yet, but as a matter of fact just last night I was combing through the SAL rosters, jotting down names of players I wanted to see. Hickory was one of the teams that jumped out as a must-see. The next step is to comb through the schedules and see when the best opportunity will be. I guess I should get moving, just in case the Pirates decide to push Bradley along. April 26, 2000 A slight brainlock took over when I was inputting the Marlins' 2003 lineup yesterday. I took it straight from the Top 10 issue, and of course Nunez wasn't part of the organization at the time. He seems to me like the one guy in that system that has a shot at becoming an all-star caliber player. So pencil him into that lineup and knock Chip Ambres out of there. Still, I stick to my point about not seeing enough potent bats in the lineup to move the team into the "scary good" class any time soon. Back tomorrow with a regular column. April 25, 2000 As long as the Marlins are in first place, we'll keep paying them some attention. And not just for their ridiculous "Elian Gonzalez day off" tonight. A few readers seem to have Marlins pitching on the brain. So lets kick things off with a couple of those questions. I was looking at the standings and saw the Marlins doing very well. Now I know they will settle down and probably win 70 games at most this year, but it leaves me with the question, how close are the Marlins to being scary good? I mean their rotation already consists of Alex Fernandez (a 2-4 type starter depending how well he heals, probably closer to 2 or 3-age 31), Brad Penny (a potential ace-age 22), and Ryan Dempster who is coming into his own (age 23) and future closer Braden Looper. Vladimir Nunez is supposed to be hot stuff and Jesus Sanchez is pitching adequately. They also have a slew of arms in the minors, including one who will be up some time this year (A.J. Burnett) and one who has a 50-50 shot of being up some time next year (Josh Beckett), and loads of hitters with good tools, though their major league lineup could use much work. Anyway, how good do you think this team can be and how long do you think it will take them to get there. Ben The Marlins do have a ton of top-notch prospects in the pipeline, and you can draw a few parallels to the Braves of 10 years ago. The thing you have to keep in mind is that when you're talking about prospects, you can't project every single one of them as a big league star. Some will get hurt, some just won't live up to their billing. Optimistically you can figure about half of the stud prospects at high Class A or higher will become major league starters for at least three seasons. Your percentages get higher, obviously, if the prospects are at the higher levels of the organization and lower if they're further away. In the Marlins case, here's how their Top 10 prospects break down by classification:
Florida: Burnett (No. 1, DL), Penny (No. 4), 2B Pablo Ozuna (No. 7)
They're fairly evenly spread throughout the organization, with half at Triple-A or in the majors. The guys at the lower levels, assuming they make it, are at least a couple of years from being dependable contributors in the major leagues. Look at what the Braves projected rotation 10 years ago would have been. Tom Glavine, Steve Avery, John Smoltz, Tommy Greene, Kent Mercker and Dennis Burlingame as the alternate. They batted .500 if you want to count Avery, who did contribute to their success for several years before burning his arm out. Realistically, what that means is that of the dynamic foursome of Burnett, Beckett, Anderson and Penny, odds are two of the four won't live up to their billing. We'll have to check back in 2003 and see if they beat the odds. Perhaps three of them will become good major league starters, but I'd bet just about anything all four won't make it. Still, with a couple of those guys plugged into their rotation to go with Fernandez, an improved Dempster or Sanchez and a free agent pickup, etc., they could have one of the better rotations in the league in a few years. The problem is, I don't look at their future lineup with the same optimism. The 2003 lineup we projected for the Marlins with their Top 10 list over the winter looked like this: C–Ramon Castro, 1B–Derrek Lee, 2B–Luis Castillo, 3B–Mike Lowell, SS–Alex Gonzalez, LF–Preston Wilson, CF–Julio Ramirez, RF–Abraham Nunez. I see a lot of guys who will be league-average at best and a few of them won't be that lucky. Nunez is the only one that seems to have a shot at becoming a really above-average player. For this team to become "scary good" to me, they need at least two hitters that the rest of the league fears. I don't see that in the organization right now. This is all pretty closely related to another question we received early last week. I've been meaning to get to it, and here it is at last. I've been following minor league baseball a lot over the last couple of years, and I must say that the White Sox and the Marlins have the most pitching wealth I have ever seen. While the Marlins may have four huge pitching prospects in Josh Beckett, A.J. Burnett, Brad Penny and Wes Anderson, they seriously lack the White Sox' depth. The White Sox' big four of Kip Wells, Jon Garland, Aaron Myette and a healthy Lorenzo Barcelo can practically match up against the Marlins' top four. Plus the White Sox drafted seven quality pitching prospects in last year's draft by taking Jason Stumm, Matt Ginter, Danny Wright, Brian West, Rob Purvis, Jon Rauch and Mark Beurhle. I was wondering who you think has stronger supply of quality arms and where these teams would rank in recent history.
John Schneider
In recent history, I'd say these two groups stack up there near the top. The Braves have been able to keep the pitchers coming for the last decade, but I'm not sure that at any single point in time they had the depth that the White Sox have right now. Of course, maybe that's only from viewing things in hindsight. It's easy to forget about the Dennis Burlingames a few years later. If Stumm, Wright, West and Purvis all flame out, perhaps we won't remember the Sox as having been so deep a few years from now. For example, it's easy to forget how deep the early '90s White Sox were regarded as being. That Scott Ruffcorn, Johnny Ruffin, Rod Bolton, Jason Bere and James Baldwin rotation of the future didn't really pan out like some figured. I think these Sox are much deeper right now than the Marlins. John left out two of my favorite White Sox pitchers, Juan Figueroa and Gary Majewski. Figueroa, 20, led the Rookie-level Appalachian League in strikeouts in 1998 and blossomed last year at Class A Burlington, going 8-4, 3.12 with 139 strikeouts in 115 innings before earning a promotion to Class A Winston-Salem. He started this season back at Winston-Salem, and is 2-0, 3.55 with 21 strikeouts and two walks in 12 2/3 innings. Majewski, 20, led the Appy League in strikeouts last year and is following the same course as Figueroa did. He threw a three-hit shutout against Wisconsin last night and is now 2-2 with a 1.38 ERA for Burlington. Opponents are hitting .149 against him and he's struck out 22 hitters in 26 innings. The thing about the White Sox is, unlike the Marlins, they actually have some hitters that scare you in place at the big league level. I think this is going to be a team to reckon with soon and for a long time in the AL Central. Considering the way the Indians system is drying up, I think the Sox could realistically be the team to beat in that division pretty soon. That is unless Jerry Reinsdorf, the most lovable man in baseball, finds a way to screw it up. And a quick side note on the White Sox . . . Darrin Jackson is horrible as a broadcaster. He wasn't good as a player, but he's much worse as Hawk's sidekick. Oh, how he makes Wimpy seem so good in comparison. I was scanning through your daily Minor League Highlights (last week) and noticed Jeff Auterson hit a pair of home runs for Vero Beach. Now I know most players in A ball in up but I have never heard of him. He seems to be off to a hot start, what can you tell us about him (age, drafted when, talent)? Will he get much of a chance to play with Jorge Piedra and Bubba Crosby around, or is he a platoon with Mike Koerner (a corner outfielder!) Staying with Vero Beach, is Hunter Bledsoe a full time DH or does he play outfielder or first base?
Thanks,
Auterson was drafted in the 10th round of the '96 draft by the Dodgers. He's a .215 hitter in his four minor league seasons with 16 career home runs. He spent last year at Vero Beach, hitting .206-2-27. He's off to a .327-2-6 start this year, but he seems like a longshot to keep it up. But at 22, he could be a late bloomer coming into his game. If he keeps hitting like he is, he'll probably get to play. Last year at Class A San Bernardino, Bledsoe appeared in 10 games at first base, two in the outfield and one at third. He spent the bulk of his 45 games at DH, where he has played most of his time this year. I drafted outfielder Richard Gomez from the Tigers organization and outfielder Terrell Merriman from the White Sox organization. I've been looking, but have yet to see anything from them. Any idea how they're doing? Thank you very much for any information. Brain Crump Gomez is at Class A Lakeland, hitting .222-1-2 after 54 at-bats. Merriman is at Class A Winston-Salem. He's hitting .145-0-5 through 55 at-bats. I think part of the problem for him is the music they play when he comes to bat at Ernie Shore Field. It's some horrible rap song. I don't know who "sings" it or what it's called, but he needs to pick a new song, pronto. Maybe with a little Barry Manilow he could get up to the Mendoza line. April 20, 2000 Trekked over to Zebulon, N.C., again last night with a few other Baseball America staffers to take in the Corey Patterson show. We had the pleasure of seeing him slam out his first two home runs of the season last night against the Carolina Mudcats. He drove in seven runs in a doubleheader, after coming into the series with just two. He was fun to watch. If he comes to a ballpark near you, I suggest you take advantage of the opportunity. Getting back to our discussion of pitchers playing the field, reader Kevin Feasel wrote in to say that the last pitcher to play a position was Chuck McElroy, who played an inning in left field for the Mets last year. Feasel reports that McElroy actually made a fine grab on his watch. Thanks for the input, Kevin. For today's column, I didn't start out planning to write so much on one question, but I did. So you only get two questions, but I think the tradeoff is worth it. Last year Vernon Wells was the big mover through the minors and to the majors. If you had to list a dozen or so players that might make unexpected jumps to the majors, who would make the list? Jack Cust seems to have picked up right where he left off last year, posting an OPS of over 1.200 through the first dozen games. What are the odds that he keeps pounding the ball and forces Arizona to bring him up in September? Is it impossible to believe that injuries and bad defense on the major league level could convince the Devil Rays to speed Josh Hamilton through the system if he tears it up again this year?
Andy Wiesner
If you want to use Wells' season as the barometer, then I'm going to focus this list of "unexpected jumpers" on Class A players. I think any player who starts the season at Double-A is a candidate to finish the year in the big leagues if he performs, so I think the odds are good Cust will see Arizona by September. That won't be unexpected. Neither will Patterson's jump to Chicago. As for Hamilton, I think his timetable has nothing to do at all with what's going on in the big leagues. The Devil Rays have shown they are willing to move players at their own pace and I think they'll definitely apply that logic to Hamilton. Of course, he could be ready for Tampa Bay by some time next year, regardless of their needs. But they're going to want to make sure when they call him up that he won't have to go back down later. As great as he looks at times, he did strike out 57 times against 14 walks last season. And he's off to a similar start in the strikeout-to-walk department this year. So he's got a few things he needs to work on. Anyway, here's my list of potential "unexpected movers." Wes Anderson, rhp, Marlins (Brevard County). The No. 3 prospect in the Marlins organization, Anderson is a 1997 draftee who didn't begin playing until '98 because he signed late. He quietly posted strong numbers in Class A Kane County last year after a slow start. Brad Baisley, rhp, Phillies (Clearwater). Baisley, the Phillies' No. 2 prospect, has yet to allow a run in 18 FSL innings this season. He allowed just 116 hits in 148 innings in the Sally League last year while going 10-7, 2.26. Willie Bloomquist, 2b, Mariners (Lancaster). Bloomquist is off to a good start for Lancaster and is a fundamentally sound player who could move fast despite having just 178 at-bats under his belt prior to this season. He's the Mariners' No. 10 prospect. Hee Seop Choi, 1b, Cubs (Daytona). A native of South Korea, Choi hit .321-18-70 in his pro debut last year at Class A Lansing. The No. 2 prospect in the Cubs organization, Choi received a $1.2 million bonus last March. Ben Christensen, rhp, Cubs (Daytona). Christensen, the Cubs' No. 5 prospect, has a 0.95 ERA after three FSL starts. He was projected as one of the closest pitchers to the big leagues from last year's draft class. Adam Dunn, of, Reds (Dayton). Dunn is back in the Midwest League only because the Reds don't have a high Class A team. The Reds' No. 2 prospect, he showed he knows the strike zone last year, drawing 46 walks against 64 strikeouts in Class A Rockford. This year he's already walked 11 times and owns a .578 on-base percentage and a .406 average. He won't be in Dayton long. Jason Jennings, rhp, Rockies (Salem). Our 1999 College Player of the Year, Jennings is off to a good start at Salem, with a 2.65 ERA in three starts. The Rockies are always looking for pitching. Jason Standridge, rhp, Devil Rays (St. Petersburg). The Devil Ray's No. 2 prospect, Standridge finished last season at St. Pete and is a good bet to move to Orlando by midseason. These guys are all longshots to reach the big leagues this year, but their arrivals wouldn't be "unexpected" if they weren't. If we want to take a look at some players whose arrivals might not be so shocking, we need to drop our standard of comparison from Vernon Wells to Gil Meche. Overlooking the obvious candidates, like Patterson, Cust, Sean Burroughs etc., let's take a look at some players who could make the jump from Double-A this year. I'll include only players who do not appear on our Top 100 Prospects list, so as to keep an element of the unexpected. Jeff Austin, rhp, Royals (Wichita). I'm not just saying this because he's one of our Player Journal guys. I think the long layoff Austin had due to his holdout attributed to his less than dominating numbers last year. But he's off to a great start this season, at 1-1, 1.64 and has struck out 18 and walked just two in 22 innings. Ben Broussard, of, Reds (Chattanooga). The hitting star of last year's draft has kept it up this season. He's leading the Southern league with a .412 mark. Jeremy Dodson, of, Royals (Wichita). Dodson isn't off to a great start at Wichita, though he does lead the team with four home runs. I saw him hit last spring in minor league camp and was impressed by his swing. The Royals challenged him with a jump from short-season Spokane to Wichita and he struggled, predictably, hitting .257-21-58. This year they took a more conservative approach and I think he'll start hitting like he can soon. Eric Ireland, rhp, Astros (Round Rock). Mr. Perfect Game struggled in a brief Double-A trial last year, but he owned the Florida State League in '99. He's always moved a level a year, so that's working against his jump, but if he pitches anything like he did last year, he'll have earned a September reward. He's second in the Texas League with 20 strikeouts, despite an unsightly 6.75 ERA. Jason Marquis, rhp, Braves (Greenville). Marquis is another historically methodical mover, but he seems to be putting it together at this stage. And for once, the Braves actually need a little help on their pitching staff. Mike Meyers, rhp, Cubs (West Tenn). Meyers didn't allow a run until his 17th inning of work this season, but more impressively he's surrendered just four hits in his 17 innings. Carlos Pena, 1b, Rangers (Tulsa). Pena struggled last year at Charlotte, but he's off to a hot start for Tulsa and is looking more like the first-round pick the Rangers envisioned in 1998. Juan Pierre, of Rockies (Carolina). Pierre skipped right over high Class A Salem and still looks like he belongs. He's got terrific speed, plays great defense and can bunt for a base hit. Look out Tom Goodwin. Scott Sobkowiak, rhp, Braves (Greenville). Sobkowiak has already drawn comparisons to Braves righthander Kevin Millwood. He can create another parallel if he reaches Atlanta this season. Millwood began the '97 campaign in Greenville, moved to Triple-A Richmond and finished in Atlanta. Eric Valent, of, Phillies (Reading). If the Phillies can't find playing time for Pat Burrell then there's really no hurry to get Valent to Philadelphia. But he still could be on course for a September arrival with another solid season. I'm very interested in Mark Teixiera at Georgia Tech. Is he exclusively at first base now or is third base still a possibility? Is that where he projects in the majors? Could you provide more info on him? I hear he's a switch hitter and supposedly the "next Mickey Mantle." How do you pronounce his last name?
Thanks,
As is standard practice with the college questions, this one got handed off to John Manuel. Here's what he had to say: Mark Teixeira (pronounced tuh-SHARE-uh) plays third base for Georgia Tech now and split time between third and first base in the Cape Cod League last summer, where he was unanimously voted the league's top pro prospect. Scouts and farm directors, not me, will determine once he's at the pro level whether or not he can stay at third. I'm not a scout, but the reports of his "dead lower half" that surfaced before the '98 draft don't look true to me. Teixeira is an average runner who leads Tech in stolen bases. He looks to have enough arm and decent enough hands for third base. It's a matter of not letting himself get too stiff to play third. His upper body is well developed; patting him on the back hurt my hand, he's just rock solid. As far as calling him the next Mickey Mantle, let's not get carried away. That comparison is made because he is a switch-hitter with great power potential and one of the sweetest strokes you'll see, college or pro. I think Teixeira is the single best player in college baseball right now. His future is unlimited as long as he works hard and stays healthy. April 18, 2000 We've had a couple of popular questions this week. Easily the most common query we've seen is from people asking about our Find A Player feature in the Stats section. We're hoping it will return soon, but we're not exactly sure when that will be. We know you all miss it. The next most popular question was sent in by fans like this one: Hi there, Can you tell me what happened to Maicer Isturiz in the Indians chain? His name doesn't appear anywhere on your Opening Day Rosters feature. Thanks,
Geoff Young
Izturis is currently rehabbing an elbow injury. The Indians are hoping that rest and rehab will cure the problem and that he won't require surgery. He is scheduled to return to game action in June. We have more on his injury, as well as a few others in the story about Josh Beckett's tendinitis problem. Incidentally, we're going with the "Izturis" spelling on Maicer from now on. He and Blue Jays prospect Cesar Izturis are half brothers. Of the two Jose Espinals being released by the Twins, Jose M. and Jose R., which one is the 16th-round draft pick from Canocanas, Puerto Rico High from 1998, and which one is the righthander who came over from the Cubs? Thanks in advance for clearing this up for me. C.J. Flynn Jose M. Espinal is a righthander drafted by the Twins in the 16th-round of the '98 draft. Though he was drafted out of Puerto Rico, he was born in the Dominican Republic, as was Jose R. Espinal, who is the righthander the Twins claimed on waivers from the Cubs in 1998. I was reading this morning about how injuries to Frank Catalanotto and Rusty Greer had left the Rangers (before making a roster move on Saturday) with only two healthy position players on the bench. That got me to thinking about in-game substitutions. First, we'll occasionally see position players attempting to pitch in a lost cause situation in order to save the arms of the pitching staff--but I can't remember ever having seen a pitcher come into a game to play, for instance, right field. Babe Ruth aside, how often has it happened? Second, the Rangers have two Gold Glove first basemen batting back-to-back and splitting time between 1B and DH this year. Assuming that both Palmeiro and Segui are already in the lineup, is there any rule that would prevent Johnny Oates from switching the two between first and DH during the course of a game, while still keeping both of them in the lineup?
Richard Smith
Pitchers will occasionally move to a fielding position, generally in the outfield. I'm not sure of the last time it happened, but the last time I remember it happening was when Randy Johnson played an inning in the outfield for the Mariners in 1993. The problem with moving a pitcher to a position in the AL, other than that he probably would be a defensive liability, is that you'd lose the DH. As soon as the pitcher moves to another position, the DH is automatically eliminated. This means that not only would you have no DH, but you'd actually have two pitchers in the batting order: the one who moved to the outfield and the new pitcher. Still, there could be times when a manager wants to work some lefty-righty matchups and it might be worth losing the DH for late in a game. (And in the NL, that's not even a concern.) Theoretically a manager could move a player back and forth from pitcher to right field depending on the batter, if he wanted to get a great matchup. Of course, in a game that was close enough for a team to worry that much about its pitching strategy, it's not likely that the manager would want a pitcher manning one of the outfield corners. And if it flopped, the second guessing would be brutal. The rule that would prevent Oates from switching Palmeiro and Segui back and forth is the DH rule itself. Part of the rule states "The Designated Hitter may be used defensively, continuing to bat in the same position in the batting order, but the pitcher must then bat in the place of the substituted defensive player." As a diehard Indians fan, I was rather upset when we lost Albert Belle to the White Sox after the '96 season. Of course, Manny Ramirez has filled in more than admirably. Now Tribe fans face the loss of yet another superstar cleanup hitter to free agency, leading many to look to Richie Sexson as our new cleanup savior. I, however, am concerned that for once the Indians won't be able to fill the void. In your opinion, does Sexson show the ability to post on OBP of more than .310 (or whatever he posted last year), and specifically, will he ever learn to draw walks and not strike out on high inside fastballs? On an unrelated topic, where did Adrian Hernandez, the El Duque clone from Cuba, end up signing? If the Yankees got their hands on what could be the next great Cuban ace, I'm going to be sick. By the way, thanks for putting up a fantastic Website, especially this column.
Marc
I don't see Sexson ever posting a .400 on-base percentage, a la Ramirez or Belle. I do think, however, that he will eventually post a more respectable number than the .305 he put up last season, like .350, etc. He wasn't exactly renown for his plate patience in the minor leagues, but in 1998, his second season at Triple-A, Sexson did walk 50 times against 68 strikeouts. That's a good ratio for a guy with his kind of power. Last year, in his first full major league season, he struck out 117 times against 34 walks. Part of the problem with the strikeouts is that Sexson is so tall. That gives him a bigger than average strike zone and also increases the chances of getting slightly out of whack. Just as tall pitchers often have more trouble keeping their mechanics consistent, tall hitters can run into the same problem. But Sexson is a pretty bright guy and I expect he'll improve his game in time. Some people are projecting almost McGwire-like power for the guy, which might be a little unreasonable. But I could see him regularly pumping out 40 homers a season. As for Hernandez, the only reports I've seen on him are the ones where he said he signed with the Yankees. That's a mysterious situation. You would expect the team to be willing to announce a signing of that magnitude. Still, why would he make the announcement if there were nothing to it? I remember a few years ago seeing Courtney Duncan listed on the same line as Kerry Wood, and then he fell of the scene. However, he has appeared on the Cubs' Double-A roster and seems from his stats to be a reliever for the DiamondJaxx. What happened to Courtney and has he regained his prospect status as a reliever? Luke Blaize The Cubs at one point were high on Duncan, but it's not really accurate to say he was ever in the same class as Wood. Duncan made his only Top 10 appearance in 1998as the No. 7 player on the Cubs list. Wood was No. 1 that year as well as the previous season. Duncan was never a hard thrower, and found his success because he had a lot of life on his fastball. Duncan is pitching effectively thus far this season as a reliever for West Tenn. In six appearances he has allowed nine hits and three walks in nine innings and struck out eight. His biggest problem the past two seasons was the 184 walks he allowed in his 270 innings. So he appears to be making progress in that area. Your answer to whether Duncan has regained his prospect status really depends upon your definition of a prospect. If a prospect to you is a guy who has a chance to reach the big league level and make a small contribution, then the answer is yes. If you're looking for a future star, then the answer is most likely no. April 13, 2000 I looked in my newspaper this morning and saw the Marlins and Expos atop the NL East. I know it won't last long, but still, it's kind of fun to see the underdogs get off to a quick start. I think the Expos could be a pleasant surprise this year and they might not be the lock for fourth place that most people assumed before spring training even opened. I hope by now everyone has had a chance to check out the rosters. They took a bit longer to process than anticipated, but yesterday were posted for all 30 major league and 120 minor league teams. Before we could begin formatting them for the Website, numerous discrepancies had to be diagnosed, so all the teams would be at the proper roster limit, etc. Hopefully all of those were caught and they're all accurate now. We've got five good questions for you today. They seem to come in waves. Something has inspired people to send good questions this week. Could you help me sort out the Vargases in the Indians' farm system. First, there is Martin, formerly Bautista, who was added to the 40-man roster and is now pitching relief at Akron, although still listed as Bautista in box scores. Then there is Jose, who was at Columbus last year and was No. 11 on the BA prospect list, and doesn't seem to be pitching anywhere currently. The Indians like Martin's fastball. What makes Jose a prospect? Where is he now?
Elliot Legow
What made Jose a prospect was that we confused him with Martin. That really should have been Martin Vargas on the Indians list, not Jose. But Martin's name change came this offseason, before the new media guides, etc., came out. When Jim Ingraham submitted his Top 10 list for the Indians with a mysterious Martin Vargas on it, it was incorrectly assumed that he had the first name wrong, because according to our records there was only one Vargas in the entire organization, and that was Jose. A 23-year-old righthander, Jose struck out 103 batters and walked just 29 in 85 innings at Class A Columbus last year, so at a glance it seemed plausible that he could be the guy. But he wasn't. He's not listed on any roster currently because he's out with soreness in his pitching shoulder. The Indians don't believe it's serious and expect he'll be back in action shortly. Dear Ask BA, I can easily think of current minor league prospects from North and South America, Europe, Asia and Australia, but draw a blank on any players from the continent of Africa. Are there currently any players from that part of the world in the minors, and what are the chances of ever having a major leaguer from that continent? On an unrelated topic, since the Betemit case is still up in the air, has the Braves' punishment in terms of scouting in the Dominican begun, or is it still in limbo until the court case is settled?
Thank you,
The one prospect that pops into my head is Papy Ndungidi, who currently plays for Class A Frederick in the Orioles system. But that might be cheating a little. Ndungidi was born in Zaire in 1979, but grew up in Montreal. He was taken with a supplemental first-round pick in the 1997 draft by the Orioles. I can't think of another African player in the minor leagues. Perhaps there could be more on the way, though. South Africa will be fielding a team in the Olympics in Sydney this summer. You can be sure there will be plenty of scouts on hand, so if someone stands out there, maybe they'll get signed to a contract. The Betemit court case has no relation to the sanctions imposed by Major League Baseball, so it didn't affect the starting date for those penalties. In a game I attended last year, I saw a closer (Jones?) throw almost only changeups and still got all three batters out. Before, I've always thought that only 95-plus mph fastballs can be used exclusively and still be effective. What really surprised me is the fact that the changeup is only suppose to complement a fastball because you want the hitter to think fastball. It's easy to see how a hitter can't hit a Billy Wagner fastball, which is basically his only pitch, because the hitter has less location guessing time. But a hitter who sits on a changeup should easily get a hit. Can you explain how a pitcher can get away with only changeups? Mark I'm guessing that was Doug Jones you saw. He has made a living off his changeup, posting 301 career saves entering this season. What makes him effective is what makes any other pitcher effective when they throw a changeup. It's not the actual speed of the pitch, it's the variation in the speed from pitch to pitch. He doesn't throw all of his changeups at the same speed. So some of them are 70 mph, some 75, some 80 (maybe that's his fastball). All he's doing is messing with a hitter's timing. And he's one of the best at it. As for Wagner, he throws a tremendous slider in addition to his fastball. The addition of that second pitch is really what vaulted him into the upper echelon of closers. What is the story with righthander Chris Reitsma? He was drafted as a first-round sandwich pick and later broke his elbow twice. He was taken by the Devil Rays in the Rule 5 and it sounds like he almost made the Rays out of spring training after never pitching above A ball but was returned back to the Red Sox and assigned to Triple-A Pawtucket. Now I see he is back in Class A with Sarasota? Is he no longer in the Sox plans and is he still a legit prospect. Melvin Reitsma is still a prospect, though he's not back in the class he was before he first broke his elbow. He came back to the Red Sox on the Pawtucket roster, because that was the roster he was on when he was drafted away. But he still needs to master Class A before he makes that jump. That's why many people were surprised to see him stick with the Devil Rays until the end of camp. Reitsma went 4-10, 5.61 at Sarasota last year with 116 hits allowed in 96 innings. It was the first time he had thrown more than 50 innings in a season. Because of the injury problems, he's thrown only 185 innings in four seasons. He's a guy whose development almost surely would have been stunted by a year in the big leagues, pitching sporadically. Though the way things are going for the Devil Rays so far, they might have been able to find him plenty of work in blowouts. I have a question concerning the Rule 5 Draft and how it relates to a former Dodger prospect, Damian Rolls. After Tampa Bay chose him, he was placed on the DL, and is assumed out for the season. It seems to me that a team could just take a low level prospect and stash him on the DL for the season, as to not lose him. What's the rule on matters such as this? Matthew Bring The rule book says "The restrictions shall apply until the end of the season in which the player has been on the Active List for an aggregate of 90 days during one or more championship seasons." What this means is that a team cannot simply stash a player on the DL. He must spend at least 90 days on the active major league 25-man roster during the season before a team can send him to the minor leagues without waiving him and offering him back to his original organization. If he's on the disabled list all year this year, then the same restriction will apply next year. If the Devil Rays want to keep Rolls long term, they will have to either activate him for at least 90 days, or work out a deal with the Dodgers (the team he was selected from, though he came to Tampa Bay via the Royals, the team that drafted him). April 11, 2000 We're heading west for minor league baseball again tonight, this time to Winston-Salem to see the Warthogs take on the Wilmington Blue Rocks. The real appeal in the deal for us is a chance to visit with BA Player Journal god Ethan Stein. It looks like we might not get to actually see him in action, since he pitched last night, but if the Royals want to test his surgically repaired elbow, they can get him an inning of work for us tonight and see how he responds with the back-to-back outings. If you haven't been reading Ethan's journals, I suggest you check them out. He's got a good sense of humor and he writes better than most professional sports writers. And while you're at it, check out some of the other player journals, too. But first, enjoy a few questions right here. I noticed that the Blue Jays have a 22 year-old outfielder named DeWayne Wise on their Opening Day roster, yet he doesn't appear on your list of Top 10 (actually 15) prospects for the Jays. Can you tell us more about him? Hope you enjoyed the Bats game, that bar in left field is great.
Walt Davis
Wise was a Rule 5 selection last December from the Reds organization. He hit .253 with 44 extra-base hits and 35 steals for Rockford in the Class A Midwest League last year. It's quite a jump for a player to go from low Class A to the big leagues and it will be interesting to see what it does for his development. Wise was regarded as one of the biggest long shots to stick from December's Rule 5 draft. Obviously, the Blue Jays like his tools a lot and think that he'll be good enough down the road to make it worth holding onto him as a pinch runner for this season. In all odds he'll return to the minors next year to resume his development. As for the Bats game, the left-field Grand Stand area is sadly the only thing that stands out about going to a game in Greensboro. I really don't mind War Memorial Stadium, as old as it is. Even though it's been pointed out to me that the seats don't all face the field properly. (According to John Manuel, it was built as a football stadium.) The problem is that Greensboro has to be one of the worst-run teams around, especially given their market. They don't draw well, their concessions are severely lacking and their in-game P.A. shtick is so annoying you'll wish you had brought earplugs. There's one concession stand that sells all the good stuff and it's located behind the third base grandstand. As you can imagine, the lines get a little long there. All the other ones, including a couple in the concourse, sell Skittles and pizza and that's about it. Oh, and beer. Lots of beer. I could stomach all of that, if that were it, because I really don't need the concessions too badly. But what makes Bats games tough for me is the annoying routine of the P.A. crew. I don't need funny voices and pronunciations for every player. I don't need idiotic sound effects for every pitch. I want to watch a baseball game. And it really is the epitome of poor sportsmanship to play the "Schwing!" and "Hey Batter!" sound effects every time a visiting player swings and misses a pitch. I suppose, as sad as it is, it might be understandable if the fans were somehow revved up by the Bats' comedy sideshow. But they're not. First off, there's not generally much of a crowd there, and the ones that are there are all down drinking beer in the Grand Stand. I can't blame them for that, because it's the only place in that park where you can sort of escape the P.A. system. Secondly, most of the fans that are there are older than 7, which I think is about the maximum age at which one finds those sound effects entertaining. My plea to the Bats is to stop the madness. Allow baseball fans to sit in peace and watch a game. I for one would attend many more games there if I didn't have to sit through all the garbage. At the very least the Bats need to recognize their current formula for the horrendous flop it is, when they draw less than 1,000 people to Opening Day on a night when you couldn't ask for better weather. I know, they announced 1,900 something, but there must have been a lot of folks in the bathroom the entire game. There were certainly no more than 1,000 fans there, and we're talking about a metropolitan area that some people have been pushing as a major league market. There's no reason the Bats can't draw as well as Durham used to, even without a new park. The old Durham Athletic Park, where the Bulls played through the 1994 season, had more charm than War Memorial, but Greensboro's stadium isn't without character. The market is there if the Bats want to make the effort. In the meantime, take Walt's advice and head straight for the Grand Stand. I noticed on your feature article "Where the prospects are" you listed Wilson Betemit as being on the "suspended list." I was wondering what that meant, and if you could clarify his status. Is he in fact is no longer property of the Braves. Will he be playing this season?
Sincerely,
Betemit and his agent Scott Shapiro are suing the Braves to have his contract voided on the grounds that he was signed illegally when he was 14. He originally reported to camp this spring, under protest, but later left camp due to a disagreement between parties over whether his presence would in effect validate his contract. He's not currently on any roster, and won't be until his situation is settled. Until the courts rule otherwise, he remains property of the Braves. I was reading this weeks transactions and noticed that the Braves sent Adam Johnson to the White Sox and was just wondering what the will receive in return? Keith Hudson Johnson was sent to the White Sox for "future considerations." This often happens late in spring training when an organization doesn't have enough roster space for a player and doesn't want to simply release him. You can probably take it as a sign that a player traded for future considerations wasn't held in extremely high regard as a prospect by his former organization. But as a favor to another team, and really to the player himself, they make the deal. The White Sox picked up three players in such deals as spring training wound down. In addition to Johnson, they took in shortstop Jose Olmeda from the Indians and outfielder Rick Prieto from the Dodgers. Perhaps if one of those clubs is short a body in the future, the White Sox will return the favor. Whatever happened to Jose Oliva, the third-base prospect the Braves got for Charlie Leibrandt. I know they traded him to St. Louis when Chipper nailed down the third-base job, and I've heard rumors of his untimely death in Latin America. I hope they're not true, but I do want to know?
Tom Bass
Tom, I hate to break it to you, but the rumors are true. Oliva died Dec. 22, 1997, from injuries sustained in a car accident near Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic. Just a few days before the accident, Oliva had agreed to terms on a Triple-A contract with the Mariners. He was having a strong winter ball season and led the Dominican League with 40 RBIs at the time he died. That was good enough to earn Oliva a spot on Baseball America's Winter League All-Star team that year. I believe he's the only player ever to be named posthumously to a BA all-star team. April 6, 2000 It's only a matter of hours until I head to my first game of the year. I'm heading for Greensboro for Opening Night to see the Bats take on the Cape Fear Crocs. I finally get to see what the Wily Mo Pena hype is all about. Cape Fear, an Expos team, features Brandon Phillips, Montreal's No. 9 prospect. He seems to have overtaken 1998 first-rounder Josh McKinley as far as a prospect. McKinley is back at Cape Fear for a second shot, after starting the season there last year and moving to the New York-Penn League in June. I'm guessing I'll see Phillips at short and McKinley at second. For my money, low Class A is one of the best levels of baseball to watch. For most players it's their first year of full-season ball and the prospects are still emerging. This is the level where Andruw Jones, Vladimir Guerrero, Cliff Floyd and others broke onto the scene as big-time prospects. It's fun when you can be there to see that. I'm writing to find out your opinion of the overall Phillies farm system. Specifically, what do you think of farmhands like Jimmy Rollins, Brad Baisley, Brett Myers, Carlos Silva, and Eric Valent? Also, do you think that Pat Burrell is capable of 40-50 homer power that he has been advertised as? Do you think that Marlon Anderson still has a shot to be a decent to good all around second baseman? Also, is the Phillies farm system good enough to properly develop these players?
Dan Starr
I like what the Phillies are doing these days. They've got a wave of impressive young pitchers climbing through the system. Baisley and Silva will be joined in the rotation at Class A Clearwater by Greg Kubes and Franklin Nunez. You could have added Derrick Turnbow to that group had the Phillies not left him unprotected in the Rule 5 draft. As it is, he's pitching for Anaheim now. Myers will begin at Class A Piedmont. Rollins isn't far away from stealing Desi Relaford's job. He walks, he's got a little pop and he can steal a base. He's not going to be Derek Jeter, but he's probably an upgrade for the Phillies when he's ready. He'll be on what should be a pretty strong Scranton team with Anderson and Burrell. I'm not a big fan of Anderson as a major league second baseman, and I don't think he's the answer for the Phillies there in the long run. Burrell certainly projects plus power and 40 homers might be a reasonable figure a couple of years down the road. But that's a lot of expectations to heap on the guy, so don't look at him as a disappointment if he only comes through with 30. I think this is the most exciting group of young players to come through the Phillies system in years. If I were a Phillies fan I'd make an effort to get out and see some of their affiliates in minor league games this season, so I could get a glimpse of the future. Dear BA, This time of the year you read about how some players stay behind at the spring training camps after the big league club has broken camp. How long do players stay in extended spring training and what is the daily ritual.
Thanks,
Extended spring is like a combination of spring training, instructional league and the regular Gulf Coast League season. The exact ritual varies a little from team to team, but basically you're talking about drills and practice games. There are a couple of different types of players there: players rehabbing from injuries and players who are not ready for full-season assignments. Most of the players in extended spring will be there until June, when the short-season leagues begin play. And most of them are counting down the days until then, because extended spring training can get old real quick. The problem for players who get assigned to the Gulf Coast and Arizona leagues after having spent four months in spring training is that it feels like the same thing. I spoke with a couple of players last year who were overjoyed to have been assigned to the Appalachian League after starting off in the GCL because they wanted a chance to play in front of some crowds. They said it was hard some times to feel like they were in a real game. So you can imagine how they feel during month two of extended spring. Why has Adam Butler, the guy that the Braves were grooming as a reliever, dropped off the radar screen. I haven't heard a thing about him recently? Is he injured? Is he still a prospect? Jimeo722@aol.com Butler was released by the Braves last July after posting a 7.65 ERA in 42 innings at Double-A Greenville in his fifth season in the organization. He signed as a free agent with the Dodgers last December, but was released last week. A nondrafted free agent out of William & Mary, Butler turned some heads with 50 strikeouts in 25 innings at short-season Eugene in his pro debut in 1995. He pushed his way through the system and reached Atlanta in 1998, though he posted a 10.80 ERA in eight relief appearances. Butler is 26, but he's still lefthanded, and I'd guess he won't be out of work long. Someone will sign him to a Triple-A contract and take their chances. I wouldn't call him a prospect at this point, but if he gets on a roll, he could wind up in a major league bullpen again. April 4, 2000 Finally, at long last, the season is underway. And with one game in the bank, the Marlins are in first place. Maybe they don't need a new stadium to be competitive after all. Before spring training becomes a distant memory, we've got a followup to one of our questions from last week to start off with. Everyone is so fond of the new cliché "don't put any stock into meaningless spring training stats" Case in point. Your answer to the Chad Allen question included this bit of great wisdom: "Let's hypothetically take two bloop hits away and now he's a .286 hitter with no power. The stats really don't mean much." What if you also "hypothetically" added two shots he happened to hit towards someone who made a good play on. Now he's back to being a .333 hitter. Should we not read anything into Barry Bonds hitting close to .400 this spring. For every case of someone overperforming there is an underachiever. But one truth holds in all this. You have to hit the ball, catch the ball and throw the ball. If you can do it in spring training, you can do it. Maybe not as well during the season, but maybe even better during the season. Todd Young The point I was trying to make, though maybe not as well as I could have since a couple of people wrote in about it, wasn't that Chad Allen has benefited more from bloop singles than everyone else. It was that with such a small sampling of at-bats, the numbers can change pretty quickly with a break or two. And I wouldn't limit that to spring training. If you want to get real excited about any 50 at-bat stretch, be my guest. But I'd be real hesitant to project a season's worth of production off a sampling like that. Here are a few examples to keep things in perspective, using last year's spring training numbers and last year's regular season results: Marlon Anderson, Phillies. Spring: .380 with 10 RBIs in 79 at-bats. Season: .252 with 54 RBIs in 452 at-bats. Sean Berry, Brewers. Spring: .414 with two homers and seven RBIs in 58 at-bats. Season: .228 with two homers and 23 RBIs in 259 at-bats. Karim Garcia, Tigers. Spring: .339 with six homers and 18 RBIs in 59 at-bats. Season: .240 with 14 homers and 32 RBIs in 288 at-bats. Ruben Rivera, Padres. Spring: .333 with 12 extra-bats hits and 15 RBIs in 75 at-bats. Season: .195 average with 143 strikeouts in 411 at-bats. Javier Valentin, Twins. Spring: .450 average in 40 at-bats. Season: .248 with five homers and 28 RBIs in 218 at-bats. I could keep going and list another 20 examples, but you get the picture. A small sampling of at-bats is simply not a reliable indicator of what a guy is likely to do over a long season. Whether that makes it "cliché" to disregard them or not, I'm still going to disregard them. But you're welcome to read into them whatever you like. Will BA be publishing the 25-man rosters for MLB? I know you did the 40-man rosters at the end of the year last year, and would like to find out what the 25-man rosters are now that (in my mind) the season is starting. Or maybe you can point me where to look. Thanks for the great mag/site! Joe Karbowski We will be running complete Opening Day rosters for every major and minor league (full season) team. Since the minor league season doesn't start until Thursday, it will probably be sometime Friday or Saturday before those start appearing on the site. As you can imagine, it's quite a task to get 150 rosters here, input and proofread. But you will be able to find all of that information here. If you just can't wait to see the major league rosters, you might check majorleaguebaseball.com. They have them all, but as of yesterday they weren't all down to 25. I haven't checked them again today to see if they have taken care of that. As for the minor league rosters, some teams have already posted their preliminary roster up on their own Website, but those are subject to change until Thursday. Is Leo Vasquez the A's lefthander the same Leo Vasquez that pitched in 1996 in the Prairie League with the Aberdeen Pheasants? Right after the season, he got signed out of the league, and I have not seen his name until last season in Double-A. One more question, is there any truth to the rumors that the northern league is interested in setting up "The Northern Lites League"? It was in a local newspaper, but I have not seen anything of it since. It was to locate into some of the more popular Prairie League cities such as Regina, and Minot.
Thanks
That is indeed the same Leo Vasquez. He went 11-2 with a 2.22 ERA for Aberdeen in 1996 and his contract was purchased by the Mets on Sept. 13 of that year. He played two and a half seasons in the Mets organization before moving to Oakland along with outfielder Terrence Long in the Kenny Rogers trade last July. I asked our independent league expert Mark Derewicz about the second question and he said he believes the league will be called the Northern Star League. It is scheduled to begin play in 2002 and is in no way at all affiliated with the Northern League. Got a question? Send it to askba@baseballamerica.com. |
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