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 If you have a question, send it to askba@baseballamerica.com. Please include your full name and hometown if you'd like your letter to be considered for use in an upcoming column. Also, please understand that we can't respond to every question. By Jim Callis Sept. 29, 2004 I mentioned in the last Ask BA that the Diamondbacks had all but clinched the No. 1 overall pick in the 2005 draft, and they since have wrapped up that dubious honor. My statement prompted a few questions as to the why the Royals, who have the worst record in the American League, won't pick first after the AL always has had the No. 1 choice in odd-numbered years. The reason is that baseball has changed its draft rules, effective in 2005. Rather than having the leagues take turns going first and alternating picks, the draft order now will be based solely on team records from the previous year (and the year before that, if needed to break ties). We've started working on the 2005 Prospect Handbook, so Ask BA will switch to a once-a-week schedule. Look for a new edition every Wednesday.
Rob Stevens Ventura, Calif. I'm with you most of the way, Rob. McPherson ranked No. 2 on the Top 20 list of Triple-A Pacific Coast League prospects that I compiled. It won't appear online until Oct. 8, so I'll give you a sneak preview of what I wrote: McPherson spent most of the year batting cleanup behind [Casey] Kotchman, an arrangement that will continue in the majors in the near future. More electrifying and less consistent at the plate than Kotchman, McPherson had 40 homers and 126 RBIs between Double-A and Triple-A, drilling several tape-measure shots. He led all minor leaguers with a .670 slugging percentage. "His numbers are ludicrous," Tucson manager Chip Hale said. "Our pitchers are scared to death of him. They know if they make a mistake, he'll hit it out of the park." Earlier in his career, McPherson had a more fluid swing and let his power come naturally. Now he looks like Jason Giambi, collapsing his back leg and trying to lift pitches out of the park. He sits on fastballs, and PCL observers had differing opinions of his ability to hit quality breaking balls. While he knows the strike zone, McPherson's approach resulted in a 95-23 strikeout-walk ratio in 67 games. His whiffs didn't draw as many red flags as his defense. He has enough arm strength but looks stiff at third base, and the consensus is that he'll eventually move to an outfield corner. McPherson has been the same player in the majors thus far, with three homers and 11 strikeouts in his first 28 at-bats. I didn't use the quote in my PCL writeup, but one scout made the same Thome comparison Rob did. McPherson already has the homers and strikeouts down, and they did have similar walk totals in the minors. McPherson drew 207 free passes in 403 games, compared to 234 in 404 for Thome. He does need to tighten up his strike zone a little bit, but the bottom line is that if McPherson hits 35-40 homers a year in the majors, it really won't matter how often he whiffs. He'll be helping his club. I'm not quite as solid on him as a third baseman. His arm is fine—he was considered a better prospect as a pitcher heading into his junior year at The Citadel—but he doesn't look fluid at the hot corner. If the Angels don't re-sign Troy Glaus, they may give McPherson more time to develop there. Thome also began his pro career at third base before his defensive ability prompted his move to first.
Tom McCullough York, Pa. Burgos also walked 75 and struck out 172 in 134 innings, furthering that Nuke LaLoosh comparison. The difference between him and the guys you mentioned is that Burgos has much better pure stuff. He throws 91-98 mph and has a potentially nasty splitter. He still is working on his command, breaking ball and changeup, but he nonetheless was able to overpower hitters in the MWL. Knox, Oldham and Thompson all showed much better control than Burgos. But while they all had impressive strikeout numbers, none of them was as hard to hit as Burgos. Most important, all three are older than Burgos (who's 20) and their stuff just isn't in the same league. Knox, a 22-year-old righthander, has very good command but no plus pitch. Oldham, a 22-year-old lefty, relies on a changeup that on some days is his lone average pitch. Thompson, a 21-year-old lefty, has a nice curveball but throws 86-87 mph and pitches up in the strike zone too much, which could catch up to him at higher levels. Knox, Oldham and Thompson are prospects to some degree, but I think Burgos has a better chance to contribute in the majors. That's why he made the MWL Top 20 and the others didn't. He easily has a higher ceiling, though his chances of reaching his ceiling might not be as great as the others'.
Ben Gurko Texas Tierce did have a nice debut from a statistical standpoint, hitting .361/.420/.469 with one homer, 14 RBIs and 13 steals in 40 games in the GCL. But he also was 22, which is ancient by complex-league standards. Those numbers are really irrelevant to his prospect status. Tierce's best tool is his tremendous speed, but he's a raw player who has a long way to go before he proves he can hit quality pitching. Promoted to the short-season New York-Penn League at the end of the summer, he batted just .184 in 11 games. As for the affiliate switch, the Yankees moved quickly to partner with Charleston (S.C.) in the South Atlantic League. Considered one of the plum low Class A franchises, the RiverDogs had several suitors but were just as eager to team up the Yankees. Charleston also offers the geographic advantage of being much closer to New York's high Class A affiliate in Tampa. The Yankees and Devil Rays didn't trade their affiliates, per se. When the game of musical chairs ended, Tampa Bay wound up in Battle Creek in the Midwest League. New York and Tampa Bay ended up with the other's former low Class A club, but that was just a coincidence. Sept. 24, 2004 The magic number for the Diamondbacks is one. That's to clinch the No. 1 overall pick in the 2005 draft, of course. The next Arizona loss or Kansas City victory will put the toothless Snakes on the clock. Thanks to Ed Price (East Valley Tribune, Mesa, Ariz.) for pointing this out.
Sam Mood Dallas After Texas didn't protect him on its 40-man roster, Botts had the best season of his five-year pro career in 2004, batting .293/.399/.507 with 24 homers and 92 RBIs in 133 games. He finally started to show some of the power expected from a 6-foot-6, 250-pounder. He's not just a hulk, either, as he's a switch-hitter with surprising speed and athleticism. While Botts is intriguing, he's 24 and has some blemishes. As John Manuel reported in his TL Top 20 Prospects list (which will make it online on Oct. 6 as we run a new Top 20 each weekday), he's fairly mechanical in all phases of the game. He's stiff defensively at first base, and he falls into bouts of overswinging or being too passive at the plate. "I see him get tied up by good fastballs, and he tends to feel for pitches," a National League scout told John. "I thought he had trouble recognizing the breaking ball from the left side, and at times I questioned the bat speed. But he's so big and strong, it's hard to walk away from a guy like that." In any case, Botts' stock is definitely on the rise, while Gonzalez' is leveling off. After hitting 17 homers in each of his first two full seasons, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2000 draft has just totaled that number over the last two. I suspect the Rangers will want to give Botts some time in Triple-A, so don't look for him in the Texas lineup next year. But if he continues to hit for power and Gonzalez continues to not do so, Botts could pass him in the Rangers' plans.
Paul Tokarz Chicago After primarily playing second base and also seeing time at third and first in the past, Diaz became a full-time outfielder in 2004. His hands and range were lacking as an infielder, and he didn't help his defensive skills with his poor conditioning. With Jose Reyes and Kazuo Matsui on hand, he definitely won't be returning to the middle infield with the Mets. New York has Mike Cameron and Cliff Floyd signed through 2006, so at most one starting outfield spot will be up for grabs. The Mets almost certainly won't pick up Richard Hidalgo's $15 million option, and there's not a lot of in-house competition for Diaz. Eric Valent is an extra outfielder, and Craig Brazell hasn't proven that he can handle the position or produce more offense than Diaz. Diaz has hit throughout his minor league career, posting a .310 average and .486 slugging percentage. He never has drawn many walks, however, and he struck out much more frequently in Triple-A than he did lower in the minors. Big league pitchers might be able to exploit his lack of discipline better than minor leaguers did, and I can't see the Mets just handing him their right-field job, even if he goes on a tear for the final 10 days of the season. Look for them to acquire a veteran outfielder or two in the offseason.
Brandon Lippi Harrisburg, Pa. Give Philadelphia a little credit for Johnny Estrada. Though he has tailed off somewhat since his surprise All-Star Game berth, he has hit better than I thought he would. And considering the Phillies have fallen short of the playoffs the last two years, they now must wish they hadn't traded him for Kevin Millwood, which looked like a steal in December 2002. That doesn't change the fact that Philadelphia hasn't developed much catching talent since making Lieberthal the third overall pick in the 1990 draft. Outside of Estrada, the best catchers the Phillies have signed have been Gary Bennett and Bobby Estalella. Not a single backstop made our Phillies Top 30 Prospects list in the 2004 Prospect Handbook. Not coincidentally, Philadelphia drafted seven catchers in June and signed four: Oklahoma State's Jason Jaramillo (second round), Arizona high schooler Louis Marson (fourth), Texas prepster Charles Creswell (10th) and Grand View (Iowa) College's Derek Brant (35th). Jaramillo immediately became the best catching prospect in the system and he'll likely be the only backstop to crack our Top 30 in the 2005 Handbook. Jaramillo's statistics in his pro debut weren't inspiring, as he hit .232/.307/.304 with one homer and 14 RBIs in 31 games at short-season Batavia. He also threw out just two of 15 (13 percent) basestealers. He does have the tools to be an all-around catcher, however. He's a switch-hitter with some pop, and his catch-and-throw skills are solid, as is his receiving. Sept. 22, 2004 Because Mike Maroth can't match Brian Kingman's gift for self-promotion, Darrell May's march toward 20 losses has received only a fraction of the attention Maroth got a year ago. May dodged loss No. 19 this afternoon, falling behind the Devil Rays 4-1 and leaving after six innings with a 6-5 lead that Royals relievers blew for him. May will make two more starts this year, next Monday against the Indians and on the final day of the season versus the White Sox. So he still may reach 20 yet.
Jay Levin Philadelphia Considering his 2003 performance, it's a little odd that Peralta got such an extended look in the majors. He batted .257/.310/.329 at Triple-A Buffalo, yet parlayed the worst performance of his pro career into 242 at-bats with Cleveland, where he hit .227/.295/.326. Brandon Phillips was bombing miserably and Omar Vizquel tore up his right knee, so the Indians were short of infielders. Peralta bounced back with his best year ever in 2004, hitting .326/.384/.493 with 15 homers and 86 RBIs in 138 games at Buffalo. Yet because Vizquel stayed healthy and Ron Belliard was reasonably productive, Peralta didn't get called up until Sept. 18. Had he qualified, I would have put Peralta sixth on John's list, behind Joel Guzman (Dodgers), Hanley Ramirez (Red Sox), J.J. Hardy (Brewers), Erick Aybar (Angels) and Tony Giarratano (Tigers) and just ahead of Sergio Santos (Diamondbacks) and Joaquin Arias (Rangers). If I were convinced Peralta could be an everyday shortstop in the majors, I'd move him up another notch. Peralta has the hands and arm and could do an adequate job, but most teams want more than an adequate shortstop. His range and body type (6-foot-1, 185 pounds) are better suited to second or third base, and his bat should fit at either position. The wise move for the Indians would be to decline Vizquel's 2005 option and give Peralta every chance to claim the shortstop job, moving him elsewhere if necessary.
Kyle Crocker Moscow, Idaho I've heard the same thing. Not many people have seen Hernandez throw his slider, which reportedly has been clocked as high as 91 mph, but those who have say it may be better than his mid-90s fastball and knockout curveball, both of which are plus-plus pitches. Hernandez has torn up the minors to this point without using the slider. He already may rely a little too much on his other breaking ball, especially with runners in scoring position. The Mariners haven't said if and when they'll let him go to the slider, but why fix something that obviously isn't broken? As for the Top 100 list, Hernandez undoubtedly is the top pitching prospect in baseball. I think I'd take him over any hitter in the minors right now. But read on to see why he might not get the No. 1 spot . . .
Rob Johnson Ellington, Conn. Wow. I hadn't seen this coming until I got an email and an Ask BA question within an hour of each other. After ranking No. 1 on the 2004 Top 100, Mauer opened the season as the Twins' starting catcher. He tore the meniscus in his left knee in the second game of the year, came back in early June and sprained the same knee in mid-July. We use the rookie at-bat limit of 130 to determine whether a player still qualifies as a prospect, and Mauer won't exceed that total this year. We don't worry about service time, though his 47 days on the active roster is two more than the rookie threshold, so he won't be a rookie in 2005. Oddly enough, teammate Justin Morneau faced almost the exact same situation after 2003. He qualified as a prospect but not as a rookie because he had 106 at-bats and 47 days of active pre-September service time. Given my choice, I'd pick Mauer over Felix Hernandez. He has proven himself at a higher level, and he already was starting to answer the lone question about him by hitting for power with the Twins. Mauer has Hall of Fame potential as a catcher. If his knee becomes a long-term issue and forces him from behind the plate, he has the athleticism and tools to be an all-star at a variety of positions, with third base perhaps the most likely. Sept. 17, 2004 I like a good Red Sox-Yankees series as much as the next guy, but can we please have some perspective for this weekend and next? Barring one team winning five of six games, New York will win the American League East and Boston will grab the wild card. With so much hype already and really so little significance, what are we in for if the Red Sox and Yankees meet in the AL Championship Series again?
Dave Rainer Huntington Beach, Calif. What happened to Jeff Mathis this year? Bruce Norlander Minneapolis With Joe Mauer moving to the majors, Mathis opened 2004 as the top catching prospect in the minor leagues. Along with Kotchman and McPherson, he formed a star-studded heart of the order at Double-A Arkansas. But after Kotchman (May 9) and McPherson (June 20) were promoted, Mathis' season fell apart:
(Those OBPs include some slight estimation, because I don't have splits on hit by pitches and sacrifice flies.) Before Kotchman and McPherson departed, Mathis was everything he was supposed to be. Afterward, he was terrible. Texas League observers say that was no coincidence. Arkansas fell apart in the second half and Mathis pressed at the plate, trying to do too much. He also wore down in the heat, which typically happens to catchers in the TL. What's most important is that the tools are still there. He's an advanced hitter for his age (21) and has plenty of power potential. He's moves well behind the plate, with good receiving and leadership skills. Mathis has arm strength but needs to tweak his release and accuracy after throwing out just 21 percent of basestealers. He's very athletic and runs very well for a catcher. Scouts aren't close to giving up on Mathis. "He's too talented," said one I talked to this week. "I like him more than the other guys they have, even Kotchman and McPherson. If you miss on Mathis' bat, he's still a catcher with great makeup. I love the guy. He's hard not to." Napoli did have a nice year at high Class A Rancho Cucamonga, hitting .282/.394/.539 with 29 homers and 118 RBIs—both California League highs—in 132 games. But he'll never overtake Mathis for several reasons. At 23, Napoli is 17 months older than Mathis, and he was repeating high Class A, one level behind Mathis. The scouting report on Napoli is that he has some power but won't hit for much of an average, and he's so weak defensively that he might not be able to serve as even a backup catcher in the majors.
Louis Christensen Houston Ask and ye shall receive. Here's my take on the cream of the 2004 Top 100 crop after another season of development: 1. Joe Mauer, c, Twins
2. B.J. Upton, ss, Devil Rays
3. Delmon Young, of, Devil Rays
4. Edwin Jackson, rhp, Dodgers
5. Rickie Weeks, 2b, Brewers
6. Alexis Rios, of, Blue Jays
7. Kazuo Matsui, ss, Mets
8. Greg Miller, lhp, Dodgers
9. Grady Sizemore, of, Indians
10. Prince Fielder, 1b, Brewers
Mike Keenan Fairfax, Va. There were rumors that Vega could go in 2003's first round to Cincinnati or Montreal, but he lasted until Kansas City selected him in the fourth. He hit just .222/.238/.358 with two homers and 11 RBIs in 25 AZL games in 2003, but looked a lot stronger this year at age 19. Despite a strong arm, he fits better at first base than third, so I think he'll stay there. We'll start running our league Top 20 Prospects list online on Monday, beginning with the AZL and the Rookie-level Gulf Coast League. Here's a sneak preview of what we had to say about Vega, who ranked fourth on Allan Simpson's Arizona list: Kansas City's fourth-round draft pick in 2003, Vega struggled in his debut but enjoyed an all-star season this year while leading the AZL with 10 home runs. "He made a big improvement from 2003 in all areas," Rangers manager Pedro Lopez said. "He couldn't hit the ball out of the infield last year and was an easy out. This year he was a tough out and hit the ball out of the park consistently. He couldn't catch the ball last year, either. This year he did." Vega had the best raw power in the league and it's his bat that will carry him as he advances. He'll need to make better contact, use the whole field and be more patient at the plate after topping the league with 74 strikeouts. Vega looked more comfortable after moving from third to first base, though his plus arm will be mostly wasted at his new position. Sept. 14, 2004 If you haven't already, check out Will Kimmey's story on Orioles first-rounder Wade Townsend. Townsend is attending classes at Rice, which according to the draft rules would terminate Baltimore's rights to sign him, but is claiming that he should still be allowed to negotiate because he signed with an agent and no longer is eligible to play in college. It's possible that when Major League Baseball makes a ruling, it will agree with Townsend. And I applaud his desire to work toward completing his history/economics/managerial studies degree. But to risk a huge bonus—the No. 8 slot appears to be worth about $2.25 million, though the Orioles reportedly have offered less than that amount—with only hope and not certainty that MLB will rule in his favor is a foolish gamble to take. Of course, if MLB would just establish a signing date (say Aug. 1 or Aug. 15), then it would be easier on all parties involved. Teams could get players signed in time for instructional league at the latest, and players and agents would still have a deadline to make clubs sweat. Colleges also would know before the end of the summer if players were returning to campus.
Mark Pierfy Trenton, N.J. Penn drew some interest from NCAA Division I basketball programs before signing as a fifth-round pick in 2002, and this year marked his first taste of full-season ball. That's why he has kept a fairly low profile. That should change, however, as he'll make our upcoming Top 20 Prospects lists in both the low Class A South Atlantic League and high Class A Carolina League. Throw in his time in Double-A, and he went a combined 13-6, 3.81 with a 122-48 strikeout-walk ratio, a .223 opponent average and 11 homers in 137 innings. Because of his size (6-foot-3, 185 pounds) and age, Penn is still very projectable. He already shows quality stuff with a low-90s fastball, a late-breaking curve and a changeup. He's also very athletic, which enhances his ability to repeat his delivery and throw strikes.
Jesse Mills Providence, R.I. Rainville, who comes from the same Bishop Hendricken (Warwick, R.I.) High program that spawned Rocco Baldelli, went 39th overall in the 2004 draft as a supplemental first-round pick of the Twins. Those Clemens/Schilling comparisons come largely from Rainville's strong 6-foot-3, 220-pound frame. To expect him to become a Hall of Famer or near-Hall of Famer when he has yet to get out of Rookie ball is a bit extreme. That said, Rainville's pro debut couldn't have gone much better. He pounded the zone with a heavy 91-94 mph sinker and showed the makings of a power curveball. He's very polished for a high school kid from the Northeast, though his changeup still needs work. The Twins already had a deep farm system, and they restocked it with five first-round picks in June. Rainville probably won't crack our Top 10 Prospects list for Minnesota in the offseason, but he would with many organizations.
Scott Lindsey Mesa, Ariz. The chances of Williams returning to the NFL are infinitely greater than him restarting his baseball career. It's doubtful that he'll ever play another football game, but there's no chance of him getting back on the diamond. A 1995 eighth-round pick out of high school by the Phillies, Williams spent parts of four years as an outfielder in the minors while also attending the University of Texas. The Expos selected him in the 1998 major league Rule 5 draft and then sold him to the Rangers, but he turned to football after the Saints made him the fifth overall choice in the 1999 NFL draft. While Williams had plenty of speed, strength and athleticism, he never showed any aptitude for hitting a baseball. In 170 games, none above low Class A, he batted .211/.265/.261 with four homers, 40 RBIs and 46 steals. He struck out 179 times in 568 at-bats. Even if he were to give baseball another chance, it's hard to see him developing into anything close to a big leaguer after a six-year layoff. Sept. 10, 2004 Not only are the pennant races heating up, but Prospect Season has begun. Most of us at Baseball America are busily working on league Top 20 Prospects lists, which should start appearing on the website in a couple of weeks. Draft Report Cards come right on the heels of the league Top 20s before we launch into the organization Top 10 (issue)/Top 30 (Prospect Handbook) lists. Also on the offseason agenda are our Arizona Fall League and 2005 draft rankings.
Jacob Larsen Waukegan, Ill. Brignac has intrigued me since the spring, when he suddenly emerged as an early-round prospect for the draft. He had a strong commitment to Louisiana State, but Tampa Bay still popped him near the top of the second round. As Devil Rays scout Benny Latino so often does, he got his man, signing Brignac for $795,000. Brignac played shortstop this spring at St. Amant (La.) High, the Louisiana 5-A state champion, and again this summer in pro ball. He spent time earlier in his high school career in center field, but because he's 6-foot-1 and expected to add on to his 185-pound frame, most scouts project him as a third baseman or corner outfielder. Given Tampa Bay's outfield depth, I'd expect Brignac to get every opportunity to make it at the hot corner. His pro debut was very encouraging, as Brignac hit .378/.427/.486 with one homer and 30 RBIs in 28 games, mostly at Rookie-level Princeton. As Jacob noted, he walked (10) nearly as much as he struck out (12 in 124 plate appearances). From a physical standpoint, he's a lefthanded hitter with a quick, fluid stroke. He has good actions in the field and more than enough arm strength to handle a move to third base. I wouldn't jump him to Double-A in 2005, however, especially if he's going to learn a new position. The Devil Rays have sent all of their premier high school hitters (Rocco Baldelli, Carl Crawford, Josh Hamilton, B.J. Upton, Delmon Young) to low Class A for their first full pro seasons, and only Upton received a late-season promotion. Look for Brignac in Charleston, S.C., next year.
Robert Sidman Philadelphia I've been working on our Triple-A Pacific Coast League prospects list, and it seems like most of the clubs have a corner infielder or outfielder who fits this profile. In the Central Division alone, there's one of these guys on each of the four teams: Albuquerque's Joe Dillon, Colorado Springs' Hawpe, Iowa's Dubois and Omaha's Calvin Pickering. The main reason many of these players don't establish themselves in the majors is the same as for any demographic: It's very, very, very tough to make a major league club at any position. The average big league team is getting .277/.358/.463 production at first base and left field this year, with prorated totals of 25 homers and 94 RBIs. While there are a lot of talented hitters in the upper minors, talent alone isn't going to earn them a job. They also need an opportunity to play, and they need to do well when they get that chance. Howard led the minors with 46 homers this season, but he's not going to move Jim Thome off first base in Philadelphia. Dubois is going to have to hope Dusty Baker overcomes his phobia of playing non-veterans with the Cubs, while Hawpe has to contend with Todd Helton at first base in Colorado. Hawpe also can get by in left field, but he got outhit by Matt Holliday when both were summoned to Coors Field, so it was Hawpe who returned to the PCL. Piatt never approached his Double-A success from 1999 in the majors before he retired in March. Like Piatt, Hart tore up the Texas League at Midland the following year and hasn't been able to match that performance since. (He has missed this year while recovering from surgery to remove a non-malignant brain tumor.) Borchard seemingly peaked in 2001 and is running out of chances to prove himself with the White Sox.
Bob Yang Canton, Ohio In exchange for Todd Jones and Cory Lidle, the Phillies received lefthander Joe Wilson, righthanders Josh Hancock and Elizardo Ramirez, shortstop Alejandro Machado and outfielder Jovan Moran. Neither Jones nor Lidle is a cornerstone player, and both will be free agents after the season, so the Reds had to settle for quantity rather than quality. All five players made our Phillies Top 30 Prospects list in the the 2004 Prospect Handbook, with Ramirez ranking the highest at No. 8. He and Hancock are potential fifth starters/long relievers. Wilson can touch 93 mph but he's still putting his offspeed pitches and command together. Machado never has hit enough to project as more than a utility player. Moran has lots of speed but not enough power or on-base ability. He did hit .383 at low Class A Dayton after he changed organizations, but even with that gaudy average his slugging percentage was a mere .404. The Reds got some potential impact players in the draft in righthanders Homer Bailey (first round) and Rafael Gonzalez (fourth), plus outfielder B.J. Szymanski (second), but they're a long ways from becoming a consistent contender. O'Brien is going to need lots of time to turn things around. Sept. 7, 2004 It's always fun to see prospects get September callups and their first taste of the major leagues. Less than a week into the month, we've already seen Phillies righthander Gavin Floyd beat the Mets with seven innings of one-run ball; Philadelphia first baseman Ryan Howard, who led the minors with 46 homers but is trapped behind Jim Thome, strike out and single in his first two at-bats; Athletics outfielder Nick Swisher reaching safely in seven of his first nine appearances; Blue Jays catcher Guillermo Quiroz going 2-for-4 in his first game; and Toronto infielder Russ Adams homering in his first start. Soon to come: Mariners outfielder Jeremy Reed, who got promoted yesterday and may make his debut Wednesday against the Indians.
David Jones Petah Tiqwah, Israel It's way too early to start worrying about whether 2004 draft picks are busts. Go ahead and be a little disappointed that Elbert, Orenduff and Johnson haven't done better, but also realize that they all are: a) adjusting to a five-day rotation for the first time; b) reaching new career highs in innings; c) dealing with better hitters than they've faced before; and d) pitching in the hitter-friendly Pioneer League. On draft day, Elbert was considered the best high school lefty in the nation, Orenduff one of the most polished college pitchers and Johnson one of the better projectable prep arms. All three have smooth deliveries, a point of emphasis in Dodgers drafts under White—and it's hard to argue with White's track record in three years as scouting director. Elbert and Johnson will make our in-progress Pioneer League Top 20 Prospects list, and Orenduff hasn't suddenly become a stiff. For any pitcher or hitter, his first full season is more telling than his half-season pro debut. Lefthander Chuck Tiffany, Los Angeles' second-round pick a year ago, got knocked around in three Pioneer League appearances in 2003. This year in low Class A, he averaged 12.7 strikeouts per nine innings and held hitters to a .212 average.
Kevin Lane Dallas Brannon represents the flip side to the previous question. The Rangers' 34th-round pick in June, he set a short-season Northwest League record with a 0.59 ERA, with a 58-14 strikeout-walk ratio, no homers and a .167 opponent average in 61 innings. Five-foot-11 and 205 pounds, Brannon doesn't intimidate hitters with his size or his repertoire. His best pitches are his mid-80s sinker and his slider, and he also employs a high-80s fastball and a changeup. He went 4-4, 3.76 for the Razorbacks this spring, highlighted by an 11-inning no-decision against Tennessee in the Southeastern Conference tournament and a complete-game victory over LeMoyne in the NCAA regionals in his next start. Brannon ran out of gas afterward, pitching a total of eight innings in starts in super-regional and CWS play. But don't get too excited about Brannon until we see him at higher levels. He knows how to pitch and can throw multiple pitches for strikes, and that usually leads to success in short-season ball. I went back and looked at the previous four Rangers drafts to find the pitcher who had the best pro debut, and came up with Chris Russ (third round, 2000), C.J. Wilson (fifth, 2001), John Barnett (sixth, 2002) and Wes Littleton (fourth, 2003). Russ is stuck in high Class A as a reliever, Wilson missed all of this season after Tommy John surgery and Barnett abruptly retired. The only one of those four who's still a viable prospect is Littleton.
Michael James East Lansing, Mich. I still haven't figured out how the Cubs got Murton from the Red Sox in the trade. A case could have been made at the time that Murton was the best position prospect in the Boston system, and it's inconceivable that Chicago, which gave up no one currently of value to its major league club, would have turned down Garciaparra if it didn't get Murton. My guess is that Cubs general manager Jim Hendry took advantage of the Red Sox' desire to trade Garciaparra. Murton, 22, was a supplemental first-round pick out of Georgia Tech in 2003 and hit .292/.364/.437 with 13 homers and 63 RBIs in high Class A this year. Among Cubs hitting prospects, Murton ranks behind first baseman Brian Dopirak and outfielders Felix Pie, Ryan Harvey and Jason Dubois, though he already controls the strike zone better than any of them do. Chicago gave up three prospects in the deal, and they all ranked highly on my Cubs Top 30 Prospects list in the 2004 Prospect Handbook. Lefthander Justin Jones was No. 2, infielder Brendan Harris was No. 8 and righty Francis Beltran was No. 16. Jones went to the Twins, and if he can avoid the arm problems that have limited him to 35 starts over the last two years, he can pitch in the front of a rotation. The Expos got their third baseman of the very near future (as soon as they give up on Tony Batista) in Harris, a line-drive hitter, and a possible closer in Beltran, who has a power arm. Jones was at least 2-3 years away, and Cubs manager Dusty Baker isn't particularly inclined to giving young players an opportunity, so trading this trio was easy to do when it meant getting Garciaparra and Murton. Sept. 1, 2004 Can someone explain what has gotten into the Izturis brothers? Check out this chart:
Cesar is hitting 132 points over his previous career OPS in the major leagues, while Maicer topped his previous career OPS in the minors by 164 points. Recently promoted to Montreal, Maicer hit his first big league homer last night off Mark Prior. While it's possible that the two brothers are having career years, Cesar is just 24 and Maicer is just 23. This improvement could be real. And if it is, with their glovework both could be above-average big league shortstops for a long while. I've hammered Omar Minaya a couple of times for some of the trades he has made as Expos general manager. But he deserves a ton of credit for turning Scott Stewart into Izturis and outfielder Ryan Church in a January deal with the Indians. Church and Izturis are Montreal's two best position prospects now. You only get one Ask BA this week, because I'm off to the wedding of James Bailey, who created this column. I'll be back again next Tuesday.
Ryan Bublavy Cleveland It's safe to say that Guthrie has been a major disappointment to this point. He began his pro career by going 6-2, 1.44 at Double-A Akron last year, but got hammered in Triple-A Buffalo to the tune of 4-9, 6.52. After starting 2004 by getting beat up again in Triple-A (1-2, 7.91), he was demoted to Double-A and went 8-8, 4.21. Guthrie remained inconsistent at Akron, showing good velocity but gaining a reputation for being overanalytical and tentative. He didn't go after hitters, fell behind in counts and got punished when he had to throw strikes. His feel for pitching was also found lacking, as Ryan noted. The Indians hope moving Guthrie to the bullpen will make him more aggressive. His fastball improved to 94-96 mph, but he still has to show more consistency with his secondary pitches and his ability to locate them. He was called up to Cleveland in order to enhance his chance of making the beleaguered Indians bullpen in 2005. This wasn't what the Tribe envisioned when it gave him a $3 million bonus and $4 million major league deal. And it's not like Guthrie is a young kid with a lot of projection. Because he went on the mission and spent three years in college, he's already 25.
Mark Stema Detroit, Mich. Granderson is the best of the group. He was a third-round pick in 2002, when he finished second in the NCAA batting race behind Rickie Weeks at .483, then went out and finished second in the short-season New York-Penn League as well at .344. At that time, he had a reputation for having a strong bat (obviously) and being OK but nothing special in terms of his power, speed or defensive ability. That has changed. His power and speed have gotten better and now look like plus tools. He's hitting .307/.410/.528 with 21 homers, 92 RBIs and 14 steals in 116 games after batting .286/.365/.458 with 11 homers, 51 RBIs and 10 steals in 127 games at high Class A Lakeland a year ago. Granderson likely will be starting for the Tigers before the end of 2005. Raburn (.307/.392/.549, 16 homers, 63 RBIs in 93 games) has made a nice comeback after nearly ruining his career by dislocating a hip in an all-terrain vehicle accident after the 2001 season. But Eastern League observers say playing Raburn at second base is a stretch, so he may have to move to third base (where he hasn't wowed anyone in the past) or the outfield (where he played some in college). Espinosa (.257/.362/.430, 18 homers, 48 RBIs, 17 steals in 127 games) is having the best season of his pro career, but he's still not living up to the tools that made him a Reds first-round pick in 2000. I don't think he's going to provide enough offense to start on an outfield corner, so his best-case scenario is becoming a fourth or fifth outfielder. Tejeda (.289/.362/.507, 20 homers, 85 RBIs in 119 games) hasn't gotten much attention in the past because he didn't provide nearly enough power for a first baseman. He had 40 homers in 420 games over his first five pro seasons. I don't have park factors available, but glancing at the EL stats, Erie's Jerry Uht Park looks like one of the best home run parks in the league. Tejeda has hit 13 of his 20 homers at home, so I'm still not convinced he's going to have enough pop to play regularly in the majors. He's a poor first baseman who won't be able to move to another position. I realize I've just pooh-poohed three of the four guys that Mark mentioned. But if you want some more hope, don't forget about shortstop Tony Giarratano, a third-round pick last year. He's looking like a steal, as he's a smooth defender who has batted .333 with gap power as a pro.
Jim Kennedy Bourne, Mass. Hinckley doesn't get a lot of hype, but don't blame Baseball America! Just in the last couple of months, we've named him the best player in the Expos system this year At 21, Hinckley already has mastered Double-A. He has a low-90s fastball and an improved curveball that is becoming a plus pitch on a more consistent basis. He has put together a 32-12, 2.77 pro record with 354 strikeouts in 416 innings. He may be flying under the radar somewhat, but that should change when he reaches the majors in the near future. |
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