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Ask BA

If you have a question, send it to askba@baseballamerica.com. Please include your full name and hometown if you'd like your letter to be considered for use in an upcoming column. Also, please understand that we can't respond to every question.

By Jim Callis

June 30, 2004

Sixteen of the 30 first-round picks have signed so far, totaling $26.625 million in bonuses for an average of $1.664 million. That's an increase of 0.2% from 2003, when those same 16 slots commanded an average of $1.661 million. The larger bonuses tend to come later in the summer, and it's unlikely that the No. 4 overall pick will sign for $750,000 again, so we'll probably see a slight rise from last year's first-round average of $1.766 million. Whatever the number, it will be far below the record $2.154 million average of 2001.

    What can you tell me about the Padres' attempts to void Matt Bush's contract following his ill-advised bar fight? If they do void the contract, do they retain his rights as if he were a draft-and-follow player? Because he already has been paid $150,000 of his $3.15 million bonus, does that negate his amateur status and thereby force him to the independent leagues instead of college if he wants to play? Or does it simply mean that the Padres get to give him a financial slap on the wrist (say $1 million or so) for his immaturity, and re-sign him to a revised contract?

    Ryan Baker
    Cleveland

    Can the Padres legally void Matt Bush's contract? If so, would he be draft-eligible in 2005 or a free agent?

    Mike Marinaro
    Tampa

    Now that Matt Bush has run into trouble with the law to go along with Josh Hamilton's and Jeff Allison's off-the-field troubles, is it about time Major League Baseball starts looking into seriously curtailing the signing bonuses teams hand out? Most of these first-rounders don't ever make an impact in the major leagues anyway, and such players obviously aren't worth these millions of dollars. Now that we're seeing something of a trend among first-rounders that can't handle instant millionaire status, should MLB finally get to the point where they quit throwing millions of dollars at unproven talent and cap first-round bonuses to below $1 million?

    Justin Riddick
    Alamo, Tenn.

I believe that the Padres are more serious about trying to scare Bush and make a point to him than they are about actually voiding his contract. Without seeing the contract, it's impossible to say exactly how they would go about terminating it, but an official on another team told me he believes the Padres could get out of it.

I just can't see that happening, however. The Padres aren't going to throw the No. 1 overall pick away, and while they might hope to sign Bush at a reduced price, he wouldn't be locked into re-signing with them. Voiding his contract would make Bush a free agent, and it's possible that he could get even more than $3.15 million if multiple teams could bid on his services. Remember, when Travis Lee, John Patterson, Matt White and Bobby Seay became loophole free agents in 1996, they all got 3-5 times the going bonus rate as free agents. It's not hard to imagine the Yankees making a bid to sign Bush, and other teams would be interested as well.

Because he agreed to a pro contract, Bush couldn't play for an NCAA team. He could take advantage of the amateur deregulation rules in the NAIA and junior college and play for a team at that level, though I'd be shocked if he pursued that route.

I think it's going too far to liken Bush, who used bad judgment, to Hamilton (cocaine addiction) and Allison (abuse of OxyContin, a painkiller). I'm not condoning what Bush did and I certainly understand why the Padres are displeased, but he's not the first 18-year-old to do something stupid while drinking underage. His older brother didn't exactly keep him on the straight and narrow, either. And even if you'd lump Bush in with Hamilton and Allison, that's three first-round picks out of 180 over the last six years. I wouldn't call that a trend.

MLB is seriously curtailing bonuses by recommending specific amounts for every pick in the first 10 rounds, and making teams jump through hoops if they try to exceed those slots. Bonuses dropped 16.2 percent in the first round last year to $1.766 million, the lowest figure since1998 ($1.638 million). MLB can't cap bonuses unless they collectively bargain that right with the union. While both sides have some interest in doing so, the draft is well down the priority list for both sides and it's unlikely that we'd see such a drastic reduction if it happens.

    How does the Freddy Garcia trade impact the Futures Game? The Mariners now have three prospects slated to play in the game (new acquisition Jeremy Reed, along with Shin-Soo Choo and Felix Hernandez). My understanding is that each team can only have two representatives. Do all three get to stay in the game because only two of them were Mariners at the time of selection, or does somebody get bumped?

    Troy Sowden
    Tulsa

The Garcia trade won't affect the Futures Game at all. Though teams are limited to two representatives, there's no precedent for booting a player after a trade gives a club a third prospect in the game. There were two similar scenarios in 2002. The Jeff Weaver trade sent Franklyn German to the Tigers, who already had shortstop Omar Infante and outfielder Andres Torres in the Futures Game, and left the Athletics without a player in the contest. The Indians picked up shortstop Brandon Phillips in the Bartolo Colon deal, and he joined catcher Victor Martinez and lefthander Billy Traber in Milwaukee for the festivities.

There has been only one change thus far to the original 2004 rosters. The Padres promoted Humberto Quintero to the majors, leaving the World team with a void at catcher that was filled by Robinzon Diaz of the Blue Jays. Fellow Toronto catching prospect Guillermo Quiroz would have been the logical choice (and almost certainly would have been on the team in the first place) if he hadn't broken a bone in his left hand when hit by a pitch earlier this month.

The White Sox briefly brought lefthander Arnie Munoz to the majors, but he since has returned to Triple-A Charlotte and will be in Houston for the Futures Game.

    In your discussion of Nick Adenhart's situation (see the May 25 Ask BA), you said that it made sense for him to go to college and try to work his way back to prominence before entering the draft again in three years. I can't understand why. This situation reminds me a lot of when Willis McGahee left the University of Miami for the NFL draft. He figured if he could get paid to have his knee rehabilitated by the finest doctors in the nation, why not? Why wouldn't Adenhart take a similar route? Why go to college and rehab there, when you can take $500,000 minimum (and probably more) from the Angels and get to rehab with the finest doctors in the nation while the team foots the bill? It doesn't seem like much of a choice to me. Is there something I'm missing?

    Hunter Thornton
    Greenville, S.C.

McGahee wasn't going to be physically able to carry the load at Miami for his senior season, so it made sense for him to enter the NFL and rehab there. Going back to college wouldn't have enhanced his draft status or his price tag.

With Adenhart, I can't see Anaheim giving him more than $500,000, if that, when they're not going to be able to see him pitch before the 2005 draft. Even if the Angels assume he's going to make a complete recovery from Tommy John surgery, and I admit the success rate is promising, they aren't going to give him the roughly $2 million he might have commanded had he not blown out his elbow.

While the rehab staff might not be quite as good in college, there's no reason that Adenhart can't make a full recovery at North Carolina. If he redshirts in 2005, he'd have two full seasons to recapture the form that made him the No. 1 overall high school prospect entering this year. He'd be a draft-eligible sophomore in 2007, so he could wait for the 2008 draft without compromising his bargaining power. Adenhart could get his $2 million then. If his baseball career wasn't meant to be, he'd still have made three or four years progress toward a degree while doing some growing up in college rather than in the minor leagues. That sounds like a more appealing situation to me, though I'm sure the Angels will try to persuade him otherwise.

June 18, 2004

I've gotten a lot of questions about the Futures Game rosters, and the answer is that you won't have to wait much longer to see them. They'll be released officially on Monday morning.

My vacation starts shortly afterward. My 9-year-old son and I will be at the College World Series, so there will be no Ask BA next week.

I think every study I've ever seen has shown that much of the value from any draft comes in the first round, with a sharp dropoff afterward that continues gradually throughout subsequent rounds. The answers to Greg's questions provide similar results, with the first round usually leading the way, the second round holding its own and the other rounds usually way behind.

Hall Of Famers By Draft Round
RoundNo.Hall Of Famers
1st4Reggie Jackson, Paul Molitor, Dave Winfield, Robin Yount
2nd3Johnny Bench, George Brett, Mike Schmidt
3rd3Gary Carter, Dennis Eckersley, Eddie Murray
4th1Ozzie Smith
10th1Nolan Ryan

The HOF chart doesn't include Carlton Fisk (secondary phase), Kirby Puckett (regular) or Tom Seaver (secondary), all of whom were first-round picks in January drafts. Seaver was chosen 20th overall in the secondary phase of the January 1966 draft by the Braves, and signed the following month out of Southern California for $40,000. But because the Trojans had started their season, his signing violated Major League Baseball guidelines. Though he never received any money from the Braves, the fact that he agreed to a contract made him ineligible under NCAA rules. Commissioner Spike Eckert ruled that any other team willing to match Seaver's Atlanta deal could enter a special lottery. The Indians, Mets and Phillies were willing to do so, and Eckert drew a slip of paper with "Mets" on it out of a hat.

MVPs By Draft Round
RoundNo.Most MVPs
1st23Barry Bonds (6), Dale Murphy (2), Frank Thomas (2), Robin Yount (2)
2nd12Mike Schmidt (3), Johnny Bench (2), Cal Ripken Jr. (2)
3rd2Ken Caminiti (1), Dennis Eckersley (1)
4th2Jeff Bagwell (1), Rickey Henderson (1)
20th2Jeff Kent (1), Ryne Sandberg (1)
7th1Terry Pendleton (1)
11th1Andre Dawson (1)
14th1Dave Parker (1)
15th1Jose Canseco (1)
19th1Don Mattingly (1)
42nd1Keith Hernandez (1)

There's a good story behind these late-round picks, and we recounted many of them in our recent summary of the best draft bargains ever. The MVP list doesn't include January draftees George Foster (third round, regular phase) and Willie McGee (first, secondary), nor Steve Garvey, a first-rounder in the June secondary phase.

Cy Young Awards By Draft Round
RoundNo.Most Cy Young Awards
2nd14Randy Johnson (5), Greg Maddux (4), Tom Glavine (2)
1st12Roger Clemens (6)
3rd5Steve Bedrosian (1), David Cone (1), Dennis Eckersley (1), Ron Guidry (1), Pete Vuckovich (1)
5th3Pat Hentgen (1), LaMarr Hoyt (1), Randy Jones (1)
19th2Bret Saberhagen (2)
7th1Mike Flanagan (1)
11th1Doug Drabek (1)
17th1Orel Hershiser (1)
22nd1John Smoltz (1)
29th1John Denny (1)

Again, check out the draft bargains story for the details on why pitchers such as Hershiser, Saberhagen and Smoltz lasted so long in the draft. Seaver's three Cy Young Awards aren't included above, nor are those won by January secondary draft picks Mark Davis (first round) and Steve Stone (fourth).

World Series MVPs By Draft Round
RoundNo.Most World Series MVPs
1st7Reggie Jackson (2)
2nd5.5Johnny Bench (1), Tom Glavine (1), Mike Schmidt (1), Alan Trammell (1), Frank Viola (1)
5th1Jack Morris (1)
6th1Pat Borders (1)
10th1Ray Knight (1)
11th1Gene Tenace (1)
12th1Rick Dempsey (1)
16th1Dave Stewart (1)
17th1Orel Hershiser (1)
19th1Bret Saberhagen (1)
20th1Scott Brosius (1)
4th0.3Steve Yeager (0.3)

Even with something based on as small a sample as 4-7 games (as compared to seasons for the MVPs and Cy Youngs, or careers for the Hall of Fame), the quality at the top of the draft is apparent. World Series MVPs from non-June regular drafts include Ron Cey (third round, June secondary), Bucky Dent (first, June secondary), Curt Schilling (second, January regular) and John Wetteland (second, January secondary). Cey claimed a third of the award in 1981, Schilling half of it in 2001.

    What can you tell me about two undrafted pitchers the Athletics just signed, Joey Piekarz from Northern Illinois and Joey Scott from Seton Hall?

    Drew Wiest
    Bothell, Wash.

No question is too obscure for Ask BA! Both Piekarz and Scott were part of our Draft Preview state-by-state coverage, and I'm surprised neither got taken, at least in the late, late rounds.

Northern Illinois had a school-record five players drafted, but Piekarz slid though all 50 rounds. Piekarz broke Fritz Peterson's 40-year-old Huskies mark with 96 strikeouts this spring, and he also set new standards for starts (16) and innings (116) while going 9-5, 2.55. His win total tied yet another school record. Piekarz spent the first two years of his college career at North Central (Ill.) JC. When North Central head coach Ed Mathey took the same job at Northern Illinois before the 2003 season, Piekarz moved with him. He's a typical finesse lefty who survives more with his know-how than with his stuff.

We thought Scott had a chance to be the first player drafted off Seton Hall this year, but no one took a shot on him either. In his first season as a starting pitcher for the Pirates, he went 4-2, 2.68 with 51 strikeouts in 50 innings. From a tools standpoint, his fastball topped out at 90 mph and his breaking ball had its moments. He had pitched only seven college innings prior to 2004. A fifth-year senior who missed most last year with an injury, he also played third base and the outfield for Seton Hall. Scott hit .333/.415/.487 with four homers and 31 RBIs in 51 games this spring.

Both these guys fit the Moneyball profile of college players whose track record of performance stands out more than their physical gifts. At worst, they should be good, low-cost organizational players at the lower levels of the minors.

    I was wondering at what point Brandon Moss will start getting some recognition as a top prospect. As a high school pick, he struggled in his first few seasons but has broken out in the low Class A South Atlantic League and is still only 20. Do you see him as a legitimate major league prospect? Do you think he's deserving of a promotion, or are the Red Sox better off keeping him in his home state for now?

    Steve Greene
    Manhattan

Moss is one of several players the Red Sox have drafted out of Georgia in the last three years, a group that includes outfielders Mickey Hall and Matt Murton and third baseman Chad Spann, not to mention star University of Georgia freshman Josh Morris. A shortstop at Loganville (Ga.) High, Moss switched to second base after signing as an eighth-round pick in 2002. He moved to the outfield last year, but that still didn't jump-start his bat. In two years of Rookie and short-season ball in 2002-03, Moss hit a combined .226/.291/.384 with seven homers and 40 RBIs in 107 games.

When I was working on our Red Sox Top 30 Prospects list for the 2004 Prospect Handbook, farm director Ben Cherington told me to keep Moss on my radar for this season. The Red Sox really liked his raw power and thought he could become at least an average right fielder, but also knew they'd have to be patient with him as he made the mental adjustments to pro ball.

Everything has started to click for Moss this year. In 62 games at Augusta, he has batted .354/.414/.529 with six homers and 59 RBIs, not to mention 12 steals in 14 attempts. He currently ranks first in the SAL in hits (87), second in RBI and third in batting. He's a legitimate prospect, but I see nothing wrong with letting him to continue tearing up low Class A and building his confidence for at least a little while longer. At age 20, he's still young for low Class A.

June 15, 2004

The College World Series wound up being divided into two uneven brackets this year. The first group, which begins play Friday, features No. 1 national seed Texas and three teams who, to say it politely, have overachieved compared to their talent level: Arizona, Arkansas and Georgia. I'm not selling any of those teams short, especially the Bulldogs and Razorbacks, the regular-season co-champions in the nation's best conference (the Southeastern). But it will be an upset if the Longhorns don't advance to the best-of-three championship series.

The other side features BA's No. 1 team (Miami) as well as Nos. 3 (South Carolina) and 4 (Cal State Fullerton), plus always-dangerous Louisiana State. Those teams have roughly equal chances of advancing to the final round. All four of those teams were in Omaha a year ago, and the value of that experience can't be overstated.

My predictions: Texas over Georgia (disclaimer alert: Georgia is my alma mater) in one bracket, South Carolina over Cal State Fullerton in the other. The Longhorns beat the Gamecocks 12-6 in the one-game final two years ago, and Texas will prevail again, this time in three games.

    I'm going to be in Cape Cod for the start of the summer league season. Are there any players I should pay particular attention to and try to see?

    Corey Cook
    San Francisco

When it comes to summer leagues, the Cape is definitely the place to go. After the College World Series, I can't think of a better combination baseball/vacation destination. The Cape Cod League had 163 alumni selected in the 2004 draft, including eight first-rounders and four supplemental first-rounders.

For your viewing pleasure, Corey, I've put together a team of players to look out for:

Cape Cod League Players To Watch
PosPlayerCape TeamSchool
CMatt LaPortaYarmouth-DennisFlorida
1BWill HarrisYarmouth-DennisLouisiana State
2BChris GetzChathamMichigan
3BWes HodgesYarmouth-DennisGeorgia Tech
SSRyan BraunBrewsterMiami
OFStephen BlackwoodOrleansGeorgia Tech
OFJustin MaxwellCotuitMaryland
OFDrew StubbsWarehamTexas
UTBrian BogusevicFalmouthTulane
LHPWade LeBlancWarehamAlabama
LHPAndrew MillerChathamNorth Carolina
RHPDallas BuckFalmouthOregon State
RHPMark McCormickWarehamBaylor
RHPJason NeighborgallBourneGeorgia Tech

When the Cape season begins on Thursday, Harris, Braun and Stubbs won't be on hand because they'll be at the College World Series. I purposely didn't include several players who will forego their Cape commitments if they pass muster at the Team USA tryouts, including Nebraska third baseman Alex Gordon (Harwich), Mississippi lefthander/first baseman Stephen Head (Chatham), Stanford second baseman Jed Lowrie (Brewster) and Wichita State righthander Mike Pelfrey (Orleans).

    What did you think of the Indians' draft? You guys were right on the money when it came to Vanderbilt lefthander Jeremy Sowers going sixth overall. What do you see as his ceiling? What did you think of some of their other picks, such as Florida righthander Justin Hoyman (second round), Ohio State lefty Scott Lewis (third) and James Madison outfielder Mike Butia (fifth)? Also, if I remember correctly, wasn't it rumored that the Royals were considering Cleveland's 10th-round pick, Puerto Rico prep outfielder Reinaldo Alicano, with one of their early picks? What do you see as his ceiling and do you think the Tribe can sign him? Also, is Indians 13th-round pick Jason Denham related to 2001 first-rounder Dan Denham?

    Joe Chengery III
    Cleveland

Joe may have just set the all-time Ask BA record for most questions in a single email. Let's see what I can do about answering them . . .

If the Padres hadn't switched to San Diego high school shortstop Matt Bush as the first overall pick, the Indians might have been tempted to take Bush over Sowers. They also considered Rice righthander Wade Townsend, but it was no secret that they really, really liked Sowers. On its own, Sowers' stuff (85-91 mph fastball, slider, curveball, changeup) wouldn't allow him to grade out as more than a No. 3 starter. But add in his command, consistency and makeup, and he could become a No. 2.

Hoyman doesn't have overwhelming stuff either, but both his sinker and his curveball are plus pitches at times and he has shown some aptitude for a changeup. Lewis would have been a higher pick had he not blown out his elbow and required Tommy John surgery in 2003. If he gets back his solid-average fastball and nasty curveball, he could be a bargain. I like Butia and took him in the fourth round in my annual draft column, which should be posted online in the near future. His bat is his ticket and should take him far, and he also has decent speed, athleticism and arm strength.

I never heard the Alicano-to-the-Royals rumors. He's considered eminently signable and some scouts compare him to a young Juan Gonzalez. He's a 6-foot-4, 180-pound projectable power hitter with a right-field arm.

Jason Denham, a California high school outfielder, is Dan's younger brother. Cleveland also took New Jersey prep righty Carlton Smith in the 21st round. His older brother Corey was an Indians first-round pick in 2000.

    What was the Phillies' logic behind drafting a projected center field/leadoff type, Greg Golson, with their first-round pick? Last year they loaded up on speed with their top three picks (third through fifth round): Tim Moss, Michael Bourn and Javon Moran. Bourn and Moran are outfielders, seem to be doing well and should arrive in the majors ahead of Golson. So why take Golson rather than a corner outfielder or corner infielder with power, which are bigger holes in the system?

    Steve Mello
    Scarsdale, N.Y.

Two reasons. First, teams rarely draft for a specific need early in the draft. They usually take the best player available, which is why the Padres opted for Matt Bush at No. 1 after deciding he was the best value in that slot—even though another shortstop, Khalil Greene, is having a fine rookie season in San Diego. Almost every draftee is going to take at least three years to reach the majors, and it's impossible to know for sure what the strengths and weaknesses of the big league club and farm system will be at that point. The Phillies took Golson because he was the top player available on their draft board when the 21st pick arrived.

Second, I think you're selling Golson short. Bourn and Moran don't have much power and focus almost solely on getting on base so they can take advantage of their speed. Golson is faster than either Bourn and Moran, and he's also more multidimensional. He has the bat speed and strength to hit for power, and he was the best five-tool high school athlete in the draft. He needs to make some mechanical adjustments to his swing, but scouts are confident he'll be able to do so and hit with authority. Golson's ceiling is much higher than Bourn's or Moran's, and if he approaches it he'll easily push them aside.

June 11, 2004

It's generally accepted that high school righthanders are a very risky demographic to draft in the first round, especially compared to their college counterparts. But based on some information passed on to me by a club official who looked at the 1990-98 first rounds, the rate of return on prep righthanders is comparable to college pitchers. High school lefties didn't fare as well, though there were only 13 and that's a small sample size. I'll also throw on some injury data I've compiled, and throw this chart at you. "Avg or Better" is the total of average or better big leaguers; "Above-Avg" is the total of above-average big leaguers; and "Surgery" is the total of pitchers who required arm surgery within five years of their draft year.

First-Round Pitchers, 1990-98
GroupTotalAvg or BetterPct.Above-AvgPct.SurgeryPct.
High School481327%36%2552%
College722231%811%3447%
High School LHP13215%18%754%
College LHP22732%314%1150%
High School RHP351131%26%1851%
College RHP501530%510%2346%

On a percentage basis, college first-round picks produce nearly twice as many blue-chip big league pitchers as high school first-rounders. But both rates of return are so small that the difference shows up in just one out of 20 first-round selections (yielding two college and one high school stud). There's very little difference if we expand the field to solid big league pitchers, and high school righties (31 percent) actually edge college righties (30 percent) in that category. And those injury rates—very similar no matter how we slice them up—are pretty sobering, aren't they?

There was a little miscommunication with the June 9 Ask BA, as Allan Simpson's top college prospects for 2005 weren't listed in the correct order. That's been rectified, so go check that out again.

Friendly Ask BA reminder: Please include your full name and your hometown when you send in a question. If you don't, you're severely reducing the possibility that it will get answered.

    Please tell me how the Brewers could pick Mark Rogers over fellow high school righthander Homer Bailey with the fifth overall pick after BA rated Bailey as having the best fastball, breaking ball and command among high school prospects, as well as being the closest prepster to the majors. Bailey has been described as the undisputed class of the high school crop. My guess is the decision has to do with money.

    Chris Collins
    Janesville, Wis.

    What are your thoughts on the Brewers' draft? They seemed very focused on stocking up on hard-throwing pitchers on Monday. Of their later picks, is there one or two that we should watch for down the road?

    Harris Turer
    Milwaukee, Wis.

A cynical Brewers fan? Who would have thought? Rest easy, Chris. While I think the majority of teams would rank Bailey ahead of Rogers, the final vote would be closer than you'd think and Rogers was very impressive in the couple of weeks just before the draft—right after those Draft Preview rankings came out.

At 6-foot-3 and 205 pounds, Rogers isn't quite as projectable as the 6-foot-4, 185-pound Bailey. But he has a lively 90-97 mph fastball, a hard curveball and a promising changeup. He's very athletic, which allows him to repeat his mechanics efficiently, and that bodes well for his control and long-term health. I don't think this decision came down to money, and Rogers may sign for more than Bailey. I think Milwaukee scouting director Jack Zduriencik and his staff just slightly preferred Rogers to Bailey, and based on his track record with the Brewers, I'd have plenty of faith in Zduriencik.

The strength of Milwaukee's burgeoning farm system is its position players, most notably first baseman Prince Fielder, second baseman Rickie Weeks, outfielder Brad Nelson and shortstop J.J. Hardy. The Brewers did a good job of adding to their pitching depth by spending their first four draft picks on Rogers and three more righties: Texas high schooler Yovani Gallardo, Cowley County (Kan.) CC's Josh Wahpepah and Rice's Josh Baker.

Gallardo already throws 91-94 mph and flashes a plus breaking ball. Wahpepah has a funky delivery that concerns some scouts, but he has a nasty 91-95 mph sinker. While Baker was overshadowed by Rice's three first-round picks, he has three solid pitches in his own right.

After the 10th round, I'll give you four names to watch. Canadian high school righthander Alexandre Periard (16th round), who shows three average pitches, would have gone higher if not for the U.S. restriction on work visas that will bar him from playing pro ball this summer. Texas Tech first baseman Josh Brady (18th) is just a masher who currently ranks second in NCAA Division I with 90 RBIs. Prep righty Drew Bowman (21st), Colorado's top prospect, may be tough to sign away from Arizona State but is very projectable (6-foot-4, 175 pounds) and already works at 90-92 mph. Similarly, Texas prep righty Sean Morgan (25th) will be difficult to lure away from Tulane, but his strong build, 88-91 mph fastball and nifty slider are very enticing.

    Rice had three players taken in the first round in Philip Humber (Mets), Jeff Niemann (Devil Rays) and Wade Townsend (Orioles). What schools in NCAA Divisions I, II and III had the most players chosen in this year's draft?

    Brad Byrne
    Petaluma, Calif.

Thanks to BaseballAmerica.com general manager Kevin Goldstein's fantastic draft database and his ability to manipulate it, I didn't have to count up the players individually. So thank him for this data below:

Most Draft Picks By College Division, 2004
DivisionCollegePicksHighest Pick (Team, Round)
NCAA IGeorgia Tech10OF Brandon Boggs (Tex, 4th)
 Stanford10OF Danny Putnam (Oak, supp. 1st)
NCAA IISonoma State (Calif.)4OF Brandon Burgess (Ari, 6th)
NCAA IIISixteen with1RHP Scott Hyde (NYM, 7th)
NAIAOklahoma City6RHP Grant Hansen (CWS, 3rd)
JCSeven with6RHP Jeff Marquez (NYY, supp. 1st)

Hyde was named MVP of the Division III College World Series after pitching George Fox (Ore.) to its first national title. He won three games, including the decisive 6-3 victory over Eastern Connecticut State with a complete-game five-hitter that included 13 strikeouts. Marquez, who already has signed for $790,000, is from Sacramento (Calif.) CC.

    You mentioned in the last Ask BA that the Expos were in line to pick first in the 2005 draft. I was under the impression that the American League had the top choice in next year's draft because the National League (Padres) had the first selection this year. Could you clarify?

    Craig Weddle
    Sun Prairie, Wis.

For the first 40 drafts, the picks in each round alternated by league, in reverse order of won-lost record by the teams. But with the distinctions between the leagues having blurred over the last decade, Major League Baseball has changed the rules governing draft order. Starting with 2005, the teams will choose in reverse order of won-lost record, regardless of their league affiliation. As of today, the first five picks would belong to, in order, the Expos, Rockies, Royals, Mariners and Devil Rays.

Had that rule been in effect this year, the top four choices would have been rearranged in this order: Tigers (up from No. 2), Devil Rays (up from No. 4), Padres (down from No. 1) and Mets (down from No. 3). The funny thing is that they probably would have wound up with the same players in either order. Under this scenario, Justin Verlander would have been the top overall choice, followed by Jeff Niemann, Matt Bush and Philip Humber.

June 9, 2004

Now that the draft has come and gone—not that Baseball America will stop providing draft analysis anytime soon—Ask BA will return to its normal Tuesday/Friday schedule after today. We'll take a break next week while my oldest son and I enjoy the College World Series, a vacation destination which I can't recommend highly enough. Now let's get to some questions, which of course will be draft-related.

    So who will be the first player selected in next year's draft, Justin Upton? Does your crystal ball suggest he'll be better than big brother B.J.? Or will the allure of a power-hitting catcher propel Southern California's Jeff Clement to the head of the class?

    Bill Lipton
    New Canaan, Conn.

    I'm sure there are a lot of people asking this question, but I'll go ahead and ask anyway. Can you tell us which players we should watch for in the 2005 draft?

    Brandon Caudill
    Los Osos, CA

    Now that the 2004 draft is over, what's your early prediction for the top 10 next year? Do you think it will be a stronger overall draft?

    Brad Grant
    Oswego, Ill.

Rather than give you one combined Top 10, I'll give you editor in chief Allan Simpson's separate Top 10 college and high school prospect lists for 2005:

Top College Prospects, 2005
PlayerPosSchool
1. Mike PelfreyrhpWichita State
2. Jeff ClementcSouthern California
3. Alex Gordon3bNebraska
4. Stephen Head1b/lhpMississippi
5. John Mayberry Jr.1b/ofStanford
6. Tyler GreenessGeorgia Tech
7. Brian Bogusevicof/lhpTulane
8. Mark McCormickrhpBaylor
9. Jed Lowrie2bStanford
10. Stephen KahnrhpLoyola Marymount

Top High School Prospects, 2005
PlayerPosSchoolHometown
1. Justin UptonssGreat Bridge HSChesapeake, Va.
2. Iain Sebastianrhp/1bColumbus HSColumbus, Ga.
3. Miers QuigleylhpRoswell HSRoswell, Ga.
4. Austin JacksonofDenton Ryan HSDenton, Texas
5. Justin Bristowss/rhpMills Godwin HSRichmond
6. Andrew McCutchenofFort Meade HSFort Meade, Fla.
7. Eric MassinghamrhpDe La Salle HSBenicia, Calif.
8. Bradley ClarkrhpSickles HSTampa
9. Jeremy HellicksonrhpHoover HSDes Moines
10. Zach Putnamrhp/3bPioneer HSAnn Arbor, Mich.

Justin Upton very well could be the first pick in the 2005 draft, though right now the Expos would own that pick and perhaps they would want to choose someone who could help them in the more immediate future. The early hyperbole on Justin is that he's better than B.J. was at the same stage, though if he's even nearly as good as B.J. has looked so far, that should be plenty good enough. Next year's crop almost has to be better than the 2004 group by default, especially in terms of position players.

    What amount of money can a high school player drafted in the third round expect to receive for a signing bonus?

    J. M. Acker
    Coleman, Mich.

The 2004 bonus slots are expected to mirror closely those from last year. We have all of the bonuses from the first 10 rounds of the 2003 draft, so let's break out the data for each of those rounds.

Average Bonuses In First 10 Rounds, 2003 Draft
RoundHS SeniorJunior CollegeCollege Soph./Jr.College SeniorOverall
1st$1,877,083 (12)$1,850,000 (1)$1,682,059 (17)None$1,765,667 (30)
Supp. 1st$965,000 (5)None$1,001,250 (2)None$975,357 (7)
2nd$768,636 (11)$673,500 (2)$763,235 (17)None$759,233 (30)
3rd$440,625 (8)$418,750 (4)$461,500 (11)$238,750 (4)$415,981 (27)
4th$299,231 (13)None$289,081 (13)$151,667 (3)$279,416 (29)
5th$212,850 (10)$215,000 (1)$187,367 (15)$25,500 (2)$185,893 (28)
6th$203,333 (9)$100,000 (1)$123,833 (12)$33,700 (5)$138,685 (27)
7th$143,100 (5)None$114,300 (15)$46,350 (10)$96,450 (30)
8th$100,571 (7)$95,000 (3)$86,500 (10)$20,125 (8)$71,964 (28)
9th$72,500 (4)$76,000 (5)$70,857 (7)$20,385 (13)$49,345 (29)
10th$62,000 (6)$58,750 (2)$62,400 (10)$19,389 (9)$47,704 (27)

That chart doesn't include the $1.05 million bonus Royals 10th-rounder Luis Cota received as a 10th-rounder this May, because that's not truly representative for his round.

    Within the last five years, have there been any college juniors who were chosen in the first three rounds of the draft who came back to school for their senior years?

    Justin Swearingen
    Georgetown, Texas

The last to do so was Clemson first baseman Michael Johnson, San Diego's second-round pick in 2002. But the Padres controlled his rights because he returned as a fifth-year senior, and they signed him for $500,000 before the 2003 draft.

The only draft in the last five years that featured college juniors who returned for their final year and didn't sign with their selecting club came in 2000. The Twins lost out on Notre Dame righthander Aaron Heilman (supplemental first round) and San Francisco first baseman Tagg Bozied (second), while the Rangers couldn't lock up North Carolina outfielder Tyrell Godwin (supplemental first).

June 4, 2004

Ask BA went on hiatus on Tuesday so I could focus on draft coverage, the same reason it's making such a late appearance on Friday night. Make sure you check out that revamped Draft Tracker I slaved over! We'll keep the coverage coming this weekend before Monday's draft, with an overall Top 200 Prospects list arriving soon and a new mock first round on Sunday.

Before we get to a couple of draft questions, I need to correct my May 28 answer about Hawaiian prospects for the 2005 draft. Stacy Kaneshiro from The Honolulu Advertiser has pointed out that Aaron Asher is a catcher at Aiea High.

Also, if you recall me pointing you toward Mike Koblish's interesting draft study in the May 21 Ask BA, there's more. Mike has done more exhaustive draft research on the Sons of Sam Horn website, which you can see by clicking here. This time, Mike compares the production of college vs. high school draft picks from 1987-92.

One more quick thought: Texas Southern beating Rice has to be the biggest single-game regional upset in NCAA playoff history. Wow.

    How far do you think Jered Weaver could possibly drop if he isn't taken by San Diego with the first pick? Could the fact that he wants Mark Prior money put him in line for a big drop?

    Zack Burkett
    Pleasanton, Calif.

Great question, Zack, and we're still trying to determine the exact answer.

I'll tackle the second part first, and explain why he's dropping. When Weaver put up big numbers start after start, and when Padres GM Kevin Towers raved after watching Weaver fan 15 against UCLA, a lot of people assumed that Weaver was the second coming of Mark Prior. But he never was. Prior has great command of great stuff with great mechanics. Weaver has great command of good stuff with OK mechanics.

While I do believe Weaver moved to the forefront of San Diego's draft plans for part of this spring, he never was the slam-dunk, case-closed No. 1. I've talked to several teams, and while some of them would take Weaver No. 1 if the decision were based purely on talent and money wasn't a factor, they all believe that Weaver is part of the top tier of pitching in this draft—as opposed to establishing himself as a cut above that top tier.

So if you have a half-dozen pitchers you view as comparable in value to one another, would you rather have the one guy who wants Prior money (that would be a $10.5 million major league contract, plus incentives) or one of the other five who will sign for slot money? If you rate them all as fairly equal, the answer is obvious. No one is sure where Weaver's reported demand originated, as it hasn't been traced back to him, his family or adviser Scott Boras. But in my years of covering several drafts, when these numbers come out, they usually do turn out to be true.

The consensus as of now is that Weaver isn't likely to be drafted before the Rockies at No. 9. But we're also hearing that Colorado may have no desire to get involved in fighting Boras for Weaver. If that's the case, I don't think there's another team with the financial resources to do so until the Dodgers pick at No. 17. And with an extra first-rounder at No. 28 and a supplemental first-rounder at No. 31, they could afford to walk away from Weaver if the price doesn't come down. They'd still have two picks before the start of the second round, and they'd collect a supplemental first-rounder next year for failing to sign Weaver.

    I'm a huge fan of Woodinville (Wash.) High shortstop Matt Tuiasosopo. How high and how low could he go in the draft? What teams seem most interested in him? He seems like somebody Seattle would target if he falls that far. Us Mariners fans need something to get excited about.

    Troy Sowden
    Tulsa

Tuiasosopo is the top prospect in the state of Washington. Here's editor in chief Allan Simpson's scouting report from our Draft Preview:

Tuiasosopo comes from a celebrated football family and is a top quarterback recruit of the University of Washington. His father Manu was a defensive tackle in the NFL, and his oldest brother Marques is a quarterback for the Oakland Raiders. Brother Zach is Washington's starting fullback. His brothers were also top baseball prospects out of high school, though they never gave the sport more than a passing thought in college. Things may be different for the youngest Tuiasosopo brother, despite pressure to fulfill his football commitment. He has showed more interest in a baseball career, and scouts say his upside is higher in baseball than football, even though he has rarely focused on baseball. He could also be swayed to baseball by knee injuries that interrupted both his junior and senior prep football seasons. The 6-foot-2, 200-pound Tuiasosopo is physical like his brothers, and has a chance to be a five-tool talent. His speed and arm strength are his most advanced tools. He also has excellent bat speed with power to all fields. He's the best pitcher and position player on his high school team and has the aptitude to play any position on the field. Scouts say he would probably start out as a shortstop, his primary position, and settle in at third base or right field down the road. Tuiasosopo has the talent to go late in the first round and would almost have to go in the top two or three rounds or risk being lost to football. Former Chicago Bulls general manager Jerry Krause, now a special assignment scout for the Yankees, has been among the droves of scouts to see Tuiasosopo play this spring.

Tuiasosopo's cousin, linebacker Trenton Tuiasosopo, is also a highly regarded member of the Huskies' football recruiting class. ESPN.com's Tom Lemming ranked Matt as the ninth-best quarterback prospect in the nation, so he does have a bright future in two sports. He might have a chance to start this fall as a true freshman.

The Yankees are the team that is mentioned far and away the most in connection with Tuiasosopo. They have four of the first 42 picks, so they can afford to gamble one on him even if they don't sign him. They obviously have the money to do what it takes to buy him away from football. Their farm system is in desperate need of impact talent, and he has that kind of potential. And owner George Steinbrenner's fascination with football players has led his team to draft several, including Billy Cannon Jr., John Elway and Deion Sanders. Against all odds, they signed all three.

Tuiasosopo also would make sense for the Mariners. They don't have picks in the first two rounds and won't make their first choice until No. 93. He'd be a very good value, talent-wise, for that slot. The Mariners could use some more quality position prospects in their system, and he would create some interest as a homestate product.

Tuiasosopo has told scouts that he'll consider signing only if he goes in the first three rounds. It's possible that the Yankees could take him as high as at No. 23, their top choice, but they probably could wait until No. 42 before popping him. If he gets past the Mariners at No. 93, he probably isn't signable and could go entirely undrafted.

 
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