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 If you have a question, send it to askba@baseballamerica.com. Please include your full name and hometown if you'd like your letter to be considered for use in an upcoming column. Also, please understand that we can't respond to every question. By Jim Callis July 30, 2004 Where are all the trades? Assuming we have some action before Saturday's 4 p.m. Eastern deadline, we'll analyze the deals as they happen at Trade Central. When I unveiled the bonus records by draft round in the last Ask BA, I let a couple of draft-and-follows slip through the cracks. Righthander Luis Cota signed for $1.05 million in May after the Royals took him in the 10th round in 2003. Thanks to David Smith, Cota's pitching coach at South Mountain (Ariz.) CC, for pointing that one out. Yankees righthander Sean Henn, a 26th-rounder in 2000, signed for $1.701 million in 2001—also the DFE record until Orioles lefty Adam Loewen received a $3.2 million bonus as part of a $4.02 million contract in 2003. I've updated my answer with these corrections. While we're on that subject, let's tackle a couple of related questions . . .
Tim Marino Philadelphia Major League Baseball makes specific bonus recommendations for each and every pick in the first 10 rounds, but doesn't bother after that. The reason is that the bonuses usually are negligible. There are the occasional exceptions, where a player plummeted in the draft because of signability and manages to get a significant bonus, with LaRoche being an extreme example. A few players each year sign merely for the opportunity to play pro ball. But in most cases, even the lowest picks get a $500 or $1,000 bonus.
Ted Kury Jacksonville The biggest reason that Bono lasted until the eighth was that he was a draft-eligible sophomore. Unlike most four-year college draftees who are juniors and seniors and thus almost or completely out of college eligibility, Bono still would have had plenty of bargaining power had he re-entered the 2005 draft. Teams often have a tough time getting a good read on the signability of sophomores, so they can slide in the draft. Bono could have gone from the third to fifth round if not for the signability questions. The Red Sox, who value performance more than most organizations, obviously were enamored of his sophomore season at Central Florida. The righthander tied for the Division I lead with five shutouts and ranked ninth with a 1.94 ERA this spring, going 8-2 with a 107-29 strikeout-walk ratio in 97 innings. He further helped his case this summer with the Chatham A's in the Cape Cod League, earning all-star honors by pitching 15 2/3 scoreless innings with seven saves, which tied him for the league lead when he signed. Cape hitters went just 5-for-50 against Bono. From a tools standpoint, Bono is 6-foot-3 and 205 pounds with an repertoire that includes an 88-91 mph fastball, slider and changeup. His best attributes may be his command and his makeup.
Troy Sowden Tulsa There are only two teams that can approach Seattle's shortstop depth in the minors. I discussed the Angels' trio of Alberto Callaspo (Double-A), Erick Aybar (high Class A) and Brandon Wood (low Class A) in the July 13 Ask BA, and they also have Sean Rodriguez in Rookie ball. The Dodgers have Antonio Perez, Joel Guzman and Chin-Lung Hu on their top three farm clubs, plus Lucas May in Rookie ball. In addition to considering upside, when I rank prospects I also determine the likelihood that they'll reach that potential. Combining those two factors, I'd put Seattle's shortstop prospects in this order: Lopez, Tuiasosopo, Morse, Jones, Cabrera, Gonzalez. It's very difficult sorting them out, as the only easy call is putting Gonzalez sixth. I may be conservative with Cabrera, who's hitting very well in the short-season Northwest League at age 17. On pure upside, Tuiasosopo would be No. 1, but Lopez is five levels ahead of him and playing well in Triple-A at age 20. Jones is loaded with tools as well, and though he's being challenged as an 18-year-old in low Class A, I'd like to see him hit a little more. Defensively, all six players have a chance to play shortstop in the majors. Realistically, Morse (6-foot-5, 230 pounds) and Tuiasosopo (6-foot-2, 210 pounds) probably will outgrow the position. The Mariners have moved Lopez around the infield at the upper levels of their system, but they say that's just to have him ready for whatever infield opening may arise. His initial opportunity should come at shortstop later in the season.
Carlos Pagan Atlanta Santana is pretty unstoppable, isn't he? He's second to Randy Johnson in the big league strikeout race with 161 in 145 innings, and ranks first in the American League and sixth in the majors in one of my favorite statistics for pitchers, opponent on-base plus slugging percentage (.628). Because the Twins inexplicably used him as a swingman in 2002-03, this is Santana's first season as a full-time starter. Over the last three years, he has made roughly a full season's allotment of starts (36), going 19-6, 3.34 with a 211-70 strikeout-walk ratio in 205 innings. No one could have predicted Santana would be this good while he was in the minors. Signed out of Venezuela by the Astros in 1995, he went 19-21, 4.77 with a 325-125 K-BB ratio in 334 innings in four years in the Houston system. He was obviously a promising lefty, but at that point he was 20 and hadn't pitched higher than low Class A, so the Astros didn't protect him on their 40-man roster. The Marlins took him in the 1999 major league Rule 5 draft and traded him to the Twins in a prearranged deal for another Rule 5er (righthander Jared Camp). Santana posted a 6.49 ERA in a mopup role in 2000, when Minnesota had to keep him on its big league roster all year under the Rule 5 guidelines. He stuck in the majors for all of 2001 as well, though he missed half the season with a partial tear of the flexor muscle in his elbow. The first clue that he gave that he could become a dominant big leaguer was in 2002, when he returned to the minors for the first two months of the season. He blew away Triple-A Pacific Coast League hitters with 75 strikeouts in 49 innings, and he has gone 29-15, 3.15 with Minnesota since. July 27, 2004 In the last Ask BA, I answered a question about Jason Neighborgall, who has had major problems throwing strikes all year. After moving from the Cape Cod League to the Coastal Plain League this summer, he earned his first victory of 2004 in his first CPL start, with a line of 5 IP, 1 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 7 BB, 7 SO, 2 HB, 4 WP. Neighborgall's line was even more spectacular in his second outing, in which he earned a no-decision: 5 IP, 0 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 11 BB, 5 SO, 2 HB, 4 WP. CPL hitters are now 1-for-23 (.043) with 12 strikeouts against Neighborgall, but he also has put 22 runners on via a walk or hit batter in 10 innings. This can't be easy to go through, and here's hoping Neighborgall fights his way through it.
Ryan Hampton Huntington Beach, Calif. Tuiasosopo isn't the only 2004 draftee to set a bonus record for his round. Central Florida righthander Kyle Bono, a draft-eligible sophomore who finished ninth in Division I with a 1.94 ERA this spring, established a new benchmark for eighth-rounders when he signed with the Red Sox for $432,000. As far as I can determine, here are the records for each of the first 10 rounds:
I only counted players who signed with the teams that drafted them, so that excluded the loophole free agents from 1996. The record for a player drafted after the 10th round is $1.701 million by Yankees lefthander Sean Henn, a 26th-rounder in 2000 who signed the next year as a draft-and-follow. For players who signed immediately, the post-10th-round mark is $1 million by Dodgers infielder Andy LaRoche, a 39th-rounder in 2003. Did anyone else notice that every one of these guys who has been in pro ball for more than a year has been a disappointment? Just another example of how teams don't always get what they pay for in the amateur draft.
Scott Reimers Springfield, Ill. Other clubs have been active on the trade market, such as the Red Sox and Royals, and the Marlins moved a lot of talent to add Jeff Conine, Mark Redman and Ugueth Urbina to their championship club last year. But no team can match the sheer volume of legitimate prospects the White Sox have traded since the beginning of 2003. General manager Kenny Williams has dealt 11 players who appeared in either the 2003 or 2004 edition of the 2004 Prospect Handbook: lefthanders Tim Bittner and Royce Ring; righthanders Edwin Almonte, Franklin Francisco, Jon Rauch and Josh Rupe; infielders Tim Hummel, Aaron Miles and Michael Morse; and outfielders Jeremy Reed and Anthony Webster. Those players helped bring in Roberto Alomar, Carl Everett (twice), Freddy Garcia, Scott Schoeneweis, Scott Sullivan and Jose Uribe. It's hard to argue with the moves, but they haven't delivered the White Sox to the postseason yet. Right now, I'd rank Chicago's top five prospects in this order: outfielders Brian Anderson, Ryan Sweeney and Chris Young; third baseman Josh Fields (the Sox' 2004 first-round pick); and righthander Felix Diaz. I didn't include outfielder Joe Borchard because he's up with the big league club and soon will exceed the rookie limit of 130 at-bats. The other notable omission is righthander Kris Honel, who has pitched just six innings this year because of a tender elbow. I'd put him third on the list if I knew he'd return to health and regain his velocity, which dipped into the low 80s. Two other pitchers worth mentioning are sleeper righty Brandon McCarthy and lefty Gio Gonzalez, a supplemental first-round pick in June.
Gawain Owen London Both Holland and Italy will rely heavily on players from their own major leagues, with several of them having pro experience in the United States. The Netherlands' preliminary roster looks stronger than Italy's. The Dutch have a pair of former U.S. big leaguers in righthander Calvin Maduro and infielder Ralph Milliard, and are expected to add the top prospects on either club, Twins Rookie-level lefthander Alexander Smit and Mariners Class A outfielder Wladimir Balentien. Holland also has two infielders who reached Triple-A (Sharnol Adriana and E.J. t'Hoen), a lefthander who got to Double-A (Diegomar Markwell) and an outfielder with Class A experience (Harvey Monte). Italy doesn't have anyone who played in the majors, though outfielders Jim Buccheri and Dave Francia made it to Triple-A. Righthander Pete Nyari pitched in Double-A, while infielder Claudio Liverziani topped out in Class A. The top pitcher in Italy's Serie A/1, righty Dave Rollandini, has Rookie ball experience, as do infielder Giueseppe Mazzanti and outfielder Mario Chiarini. Righthander Mike Marchesano has pitched in U.S. independent leagues. Team USA's absence from the Olympics hasn't had an effect on the players allowed to participate in the Olympics. Not only are the Twins letting Smit play, but they were willing to let Canada have slugger Justin Morneau before they needed him in the majors. The Rockies will let their 2002 first-round pick, lefty Jeff Francis, play for Canada if they don't call him up, and the Orioles have made their 2003 first-rounder, outfielder Nick Markakis available to Greece. If his shoulder is healthy, Taiwan will have the services of righthander Chin-Hui Tsao, who entered 2004 as the Rockies' top prospect. Yankees righty Chien-Ming Wang and Dodgers outfielder Chin-Feng Chen are two other talented minor leaguers committed to Taiwan. Australia will have several minor leaguers, most notably Mets catcher Justin Huber and Padres righty Chris Oxspring. Led by assistant managing editor John Manuel, the BA staff has been hard at work putting together an Olympic preview for our current issue. It should be posted online in the near future. July 23, 2004 Rookie-level Arizona League statistics may not mean anything in the long run, but the Mariners have to be encouraged by the start of shortstop Matt Tuiasosopo's career. After Seattle gave him a third-round-record $2.29 million bonus to steer him away from playing quarterback at the University of Washington, Tuiasosopo homered in his first pro at-bat. He has yet to cool down, hitting .485/.581/.848 with three homers and six RBIs in his first 10 pro games.
Marc Miner Garden City, N.Y. Rolen's and Wright's minor league statistics are uncannily similar. Not just their career totals, but also their year-by-year progression through the minors. Take a look:
Rolen and Wright moved through the minors at the same pace. Rolen reached the majors after 355 games, compared to 390 for Wright, but that difference is almost solely attributable to Rolen missing the first two months of 1995 after breaking the hamate bone in his left wrist. They also went in very similar draft slots, with the Phillies taking Rolen 46th overall in 1993 and the Mets grabbing Wright 38th overall eight years later. Wright (6 feet, 200 pounds) isn't as big as Rolen (6-foot-4, 240), but his skills are reminiscent of Rolen's at the same stage of their careers. Want one more parallel? In his first two big league games, Wright has gone 2-for-8 with a double. In Rolen's first eight major league at-bats, he also had two hits (both doubles). For more on Wright, check out two fine features we've just posted on the website: Marty Noble on Wright putting the finishing touches on his game before his promotion
Shawn Barcroft Reno, Nev. Is that a five-tool player I see in the A's minor league system? Javier Herrera is tearing up the short-season Northwest League. What's the scouting report on this kid? Is he really only 19? Dale Carriger San Francisco I'd rank Garcia (see Ask BA, July 9) as the best Latin American prospect in the Athletics system, with Herrera right behind him. There's no evidence to believe that Herrera is not 19, and he's having a tremendous year against older competition in the NWL. He's hitting .378/.444/.613 with five homers, 23 RBIs and 11 steals (in 12 attempts) through 30 games. Herrera made his U.S. debut last year, and it was most notable for his collision with the center-field fence during a game in the Arizona League. Herrera lost all feeling in his legs and had to be airlifted to a Phoenix hospital. His performance tailed off after he returned to the AZL, but he has shown across-the-board tools in 2004. His arm would get the highest present grade (70 on the 20-80 scouting scale), but his power-speed combination also is potent. They aren't in the same class as Garcia and Herrera, but Dominican outfielders Nelson Cruz (originally signed by the Mets, who traded him to Oakland for Jorge Velandia) and Alexi Ogando are worth watching. Dominican infielder Francis Gomez has a nifty glove but hasn't proven he can hit.
As a freshman in 2003, Neighborgall had more walks than strikeouts but also had the best ERA among Georgia Tech's regular pitchers at 3.70. He issued more than a walk per inning with the Cape's Wareham Gatemen, yet I ranked him as the league's 10th-best prospect because he held opponents to a .163 average with overwhelming stuff, including a fastball that topped out at 102 mph. "He has as good an arm as there is in the United States, " a National League scouting director said. "It's just electric stuff and he's still not filled out physically. There's more to him." But Neighborgall's command deteriorated from bad to absolutely horrid this year. The Yellow Jackets used him for just 6 2/3 innings because he couldn't find the plate. During that time, he gave up 24 walks, hit three batters and uncorked 16 wild pitches. He headed to Bourne with the hopes of getting back on track, but he wasn't much better. He worked eight innings with 13 walks, one hit batter and nine wild pitches. Neighborgall left the Cape and returned home to North Carolina to join the Coastal Plain League's Fayetteville SwampDogs. He earned his first 2004 victory at any of his stops in his first outing last Saturday, pitching one-hit ball with seven strikeouts over five innings. But he still had trouble finding the plate, as he walked seven, hit two batters and threw four wild pitches. He's scheduled to make his second start tonight. Neighborgall is the biggest wild card for the 2005 draft. At one point, he looked like a potential No. 1 overall pick. But unless he improves drastically, it will be hard for Georgia Tech to give him many innings next spring. July 20, 2004 What a day for watching afternoon baseball while you work! In Tampa Bay, Jose Contreras continued his dominance of weaker offenses by earning a 4-2 victory with a 7-4-2-1-2-3 line. Zach Greinke got pummeled as Karim Garcia hit two homers in his first game back with the Orioles, but another young pitcher, Brandon Claussen, earned a victory in his first start for the Reds. The two best games of the afternoon aren't quite done yet. Albert Pujols is 5-for-5 with three homers, leading the Cardinals back from an 7-1 deficit to take an 11-8 lead over the Cubs into the bottom of the ninth. (Chicago just loaded the bases with two out as I write this.) On the other end of the spectrum, Blue Jays rookie David Bush took a no-hitter into the eighth against the Athletics. That game was scoreless entering the ninth, with Bush and Rich Harden each permitting just one hit.
Charles, you've read my mind. I like all three of these ideas, and the BA staff at the Futures Game in Houston discussed them. A nine-inning game would allow each team to use nine pitchers for one inning apiece, and we wouldn't have to settle for truncated appearances by the likes of Gavin Floyd, Kyle Sleeth and Merkin Valdez. A home run derby would be a natural. Who wouldn't want to see guys like Prince Fielder, Dallas McPherson and Justin Morneau swing for the fences? And while we're at it, if I were the czar of what's officially known as All-Star Sunday, I'd do away with the celebrity softball game. Do we really need to see Clyde Drexler and Sarah Silverman cavorting around the diamond? This adds what to the All-Star Game festivities? But the first thing I would change is to make the Futures Game an AL vs. NL affair. I understand that when the game was first created, Major League Baseball wanted to promote the sport internationally. But picking the teams based on leagues rather than birthplaces would create an even stronger event. There weren't any slouches in this year's game, but there wasn't a member of the World starting lineup who was clearly better than his U.S. counterpart. Arguments can be made for Dioner Navarro vs. Koyie Hill at catcher, Morneau vs. Fielder at first base and Jeff Francis vs. Joe Blanton on the mound, but that's as close as it got. Here's how I envision a 2004 Futures Game with AL and NL squads would have looked like. I adhered to the usual guidelines, choosing at least one prospect and no more than two from each club, and eliminating any players who were injured or in the major leagues: American League
National League
I really wanted to get Navarro and third baseman Andy Marte on there. But I needed Eric Duncan to fill a hole at third base for the AL, which made me reach my Yankees quota with Robinson Cano already at second base. Edwin Encarnacion was the most deserving Red, so Marte had to go. Despite losing Navarro and Marte, however, I still was able to raise the talent level. The asterisks indicate players who weren't on the U.S. or World roster for the 2004 Futures Game, and my additions included Jeff Francoeur, Jeremy Hermida, Mike Hinckley, Sergio Santos and Grady Sizemore. Making changes to the Futures Game is ultimately MLB's call. All of these suggestions are good ones, and hopefully we'll be able to discuss them with MLB in the future.
Greg Levine Blacksburg, Va. Since Mussina was an Orioles first-round pick in 1990, Stanford has featured several other coveted arms. Among them are six first-round picks (Rick Helling, Willie Adams, Peterson, Austin, Wayne, Guthrie), a supplemental first-rounder (Stan Spencer), three second-round picks who got early-first-round money (Hutchinson, Young, Mike Gosling) and a ninth-round pick who got near-first-round money (Jason Middlebrook). But outside of Mussina, that group features just one player who has had a big league career of note (Helling) while the other 10 have combined for a 25-44 record in the majors. They've underachieved for a variety of reasons. Spencer and Peterson were held back by injuries, and Gosling has been too. Young has had some minor ailments as well, and his stuff seemed to peak when he was a sophomore at Stanford in 1999. Middlebrook also had physical problems, and he was never better than he was as a Cardinal freshman in 1994. With Adams, Austin and Wayne, their polish was more impressive than their stuff—but it didn't or hasn't impressed big league hitters. Guthrie's mechanics deteriorated once he reached Triple-A, though the Indians still have hopes for him. Hutchinson split time between baseball and football at Stanford, fell behind in learning how to pitch and took off for the NFL when he didn't want to fight through adversity. There's no one underlying cause for the Stanford pitchers' lack of big league success. The Cardinal's annual pitching depth generally meant that none of them were severely overworked, and Tom Kunis is a respected pitching coach. While all this might be nothing more than coincidence, it would at least give me pause before I'd spend a lot of money on a Stanford pitcher. The Cardinal should have another early pick in the 2005 draft, as lefthander Mark Romanczuk figures to go in the first two rounds.
 ? Near No. 4 Chris Burke and No. 5 Freddy Sanchez, perhaps? Are you encouraged by Phillips' performance thus far in Triple-A, or should his lack of power cause us to temper our expectations? Do you feel he will ultimately play at shortstop or second base?
Doug Kripp Hagerstown, Md. Phillips has almost split his time evenly between second base (43 games) and shortstop (45 games) this year, and scouts also are split on where he'll fit best in the long run. When you hear whispers in the minors that a prospect may have to move to a less demanding position, it usually comes true in the majors, so I'll guess that Phillips will wind up at second base. Though Phillips had a disastrous 2003 at Cleveland and in Triple-A, he was just 22. He has bounced back to hit .306/.363/.418 with five homers and 36 RBIs in 88 games in Triple-A this year, and he's still younger than Burke (24) or Sanchez (26). No one is comparing Phillips to Derek Jeter and Barry Larkin like they were a couple of years ago, but he still has a lot of potential. If he qualified, I'd put him fourth on our second-base rankings. He has a higher ceiling than Burke, though Burke is a safer bet. July 16, 2004 Randy Johnson seems destined for the Yankees, and shouldn't the question be why? How can a club spend $184.2 million on players and still be in need of midseason reinforcements? Shouldn't $184.2 million buy you a team that could weather injuries and ineffectiveness? You could spend $10 million on each of the nine players in your lineup, each of the five members of your rotation, plus your closer, and that would still give you $34.2 million for the other 10 players on your roster, whom you'd be paying at the rate of an $85.5 million 25-man payroll.
I hadn't made the Jackson/Quentin-to-Kearns/Dunn connection before, but that's an interesting one. Cincinnati took Kearns in the first round and Dunn in the second round of the 1998 draft, while Arizona made Jackson and Quentin first-rounders a year ago. Jackson and Quentin came out of college, so they're more advanced than Kearns and Dunn were entering pro ball out of high school, but both combinations did plenty of damage to minor league pitching. Let's take a quick look at what Kearns and Dunn did in low Class A in 2000, compared to how Jackson and Quentin have fared between high Class A and Double-A this year:
The comparison holds up well statistically. Jackson (22) and Quentin (21) are older than Kearns and Dunn (both 20) were, but they've also faced stiffer competition. Kearns and Dunn are a bit more athletic, an advantage that shows up in stolen bases. Both pairs have identical strikeout-walk ratios, with Kearns and Dunn being more prolific in both categories. Though Quentin missed all of last summer recovering from Tommy John surgery, he and Jackson still figure to arrive in Arizona at the same time, which figures to be the end of 2005 or beginning of 2006. I wouldn't characterize one as more of a natural hitter or athlete than the other. They've very similar corner outfielders, with Jackson owning a little more raw power and Quentin possessing more arm strength.
Michael Stern Rochester, N.Y. I was all ready to write that I thought Milledge would be best served by staying put in the SAL when I discovered that the Mets promoted him to high Class A St. Lucie yesterday. Milledge put up very nice numbers for a 19-year-old at Capital City, hitting .321/.359/.545 with eight homers, 35 RBIs and 16 steals in 47 games. He didn't start playing until May 19 after breaking his right ring finger during a bunting drill in spring training. Milledge's bat speed and offensive potential is obvious. He's still raw in center field but has the range and arm to become a plus defender. I would have let him stay in low Class A so he could refine his strike-zone judgment after whiffing 42 times against just five walks in 196 at-bats, but I don't think the Mets are rushing him. You could easily make the argument that moving a step up the ladder and facing better pitching may spur him to address his plate discipline more than continuing to tear up the SAL would have. His big league ETA looks like Opening Day 2007. Milledge did rank ahead of Young at one point, and he didn't drop to 12th in the 2003 draft solely on the basis of allegations that he had sexual relations with underage girls while in high school. There also were concerns that he hadn't hit well with wood bats in the past and that he struggled against quality breaking pitches, but he has put those to rest in his first full pro season.
Jon Pence Durham, N.C. Though he's having a difficult season, Cabrera would be a nice fit for the Cubs. His .237/.293/.318 numbers (with four homers, 23 RBIs and 12 steals in 88 games) are the second-worst among big league regular shortstops, but he brought a career .733 OPS into the season (including an .807 mark in 2003), he's still just 28 and he's a slick defender with a 2001 Gold Glove on his résumé. He's a free agent at the end of the season, and his off year plus the potential availability of Nomar Garciaparra and Edgar Renteria on the market could lead Cabrera to sign a reasonable long-term contract. Gonzalez might go to Montreal in a trade like this, but he'd be of no value to the Expos other than serving as a placeholder at shortstop before becoming a free agent after the season. The Cubs presumably would have to pay most of the remainder of Gonzalez' $5.5 million in salary and bonuses for 2004, as well as ante up some prospects to make a Cabrera deal worth Montreal's while. The Expos don't have a lot of long-term cornerstones. Nick Johnson, Jose Vidro and Brad Wilkerson are the only sure keepers in the lineup, with Zach Day and Livan Hernandez the only healthy starting pitchers who can be trusted. If I were running Montreal, I'd ask for Brendan Harris to fill my gaping hole at third base and one of the Cubs' several pitching prospects, maybe one of their more advanced guys out of a group that would include Jon Leicester, Sergio Mitre, Ricky Nolasco, Renyel Pinto and Todd Wellemeyer. I'm assuming that righthanders Angel Guzman and Bobby Brownlie would be off limits. July 13, 2004 As usual, the Futures Game was the highlight of the All-Star Game festivities. I feel safe writing that even before the All-Star Game is staged tonight. It just doesn't get any better than seeing 50 of baseball's top prospects in action. As I wrote in our Futures Game recap, pitching was the story. When I rode over to the game with Peter Gammons, we both said the prospect we were looking forward to watching the most was Mariners righthander Felix Hernandez. He didn't disappoint. Hernandez worked a 1-2-3 second inning, giving up a leadoff single to Brewers first baseman Prince Fielder before striking out Mets third baseman David Wright with an 84-mph curveball and getting Dodgers catcher Koyie Hill to ground into a 4-6-3 double play. Hernandez required just seven pitches to get out of the inning, while his fastball registered 96-97 mph. If the Mariners were in the pennant race, I believe they could call Hernandez up and get a Francisco Rodriguezesque performance out of him. And Hernandez is just 18.
Jason Phillips New Canaan, Conn. As with almost every Cuban defector, there's a lot of smoke and mirrors involved with Soler. Most of the details about him are sketchy, and it remains to be seen what is fact and what is fiction. He has agreed to a $3 million contract with the Mets, pending passing a physical. The scouting report on Soler is that he's a 6-foot-3, 230-pound righthander with a lively low-90s fastball and a good slider. He pitched for Cuba at the 2002 World University Games in Italy, beating Taiwan in the semifinals with a five-hit shutout. Soler has had two major shoulder surgeries but apparently has made a full recovery. He reportedly defected by boat last November, along with infielder Walter Frias and pitchers Reine Paez and Roberto Sotolongo, and has established residency in the Dominican Republic. It may take some time to secure a visa for Soler to enter the United States, and once he does he's expected to begin his pro career at high Class A St. Lucie. I don't think it's realistic to expect Soler to help the Mets in 2004, even if the visa process is expedited. Outside of Orlando Hernandez and possibly Livan Hernandez, no other Cuban defector has lived up to expectations. Remember when the Mets were excited about signing Cuban slugger Jorge Toca for $1.4 million in September 1998? Toca turned out to be a huge disappointment—not to mention three years older than initially believed—before the Mets washed their hands of him last August.
Jake Freehling Schaumburg, Ill. I had a similar question in the Aug. 9, 2003 edition of Ask BA, and I gave Kazmir the slightest edge over Hamels and Miller. When I listed my personal Top 50 Prospects list in the 2004 Prospect Handbook, I ranked them in this order: Miller (No. 8), Kazmir (No. 19), Hamels (No. 20). Since then, all three have fought injuries. Miller had arthroscopic shoulder surgery to clean up some bursitis in March and has yet to pitch in a game this season. His rehab has taken longer than expected, and he might miss the entire season. An abdominal strain has limited Kazmir to 56 innings, while Hamels has worked just 16 innings because of a sore elbow. He didn't make his 2004 debut until late May, then lasted just four starts until being shut down again. He won't return before early August. All three lefties were first-round picks in 2002, and all have dominated minor league hitters when healthy. Kazmir and Miller have better all-around stuff, though Hamels has the best changeup in the group. Though the 19-year-old Miller is nine months younger than Kazmir and 10 younger than Hamels, he was well a full level ahead of both in 2003. Honestly, there isn't much to separate these three at this point, and how well they do in the future depends more on their health than anything else. For that reason, I'd put Kazmir back at the head of the class, with Miller second and Hamels third.
Josh Boyd ranked Callaspo, Wood and Aybar 6-7-8 in that order on our Angels Top 10 Prospects list entering the season. At this point, I'd put them in the reverse order, but as with the lefthanders above, there isn't much separating them. Aybar, 20, is the top defensive shortstop among the trio because he possesses the best range, arm and actions. He's having a fabulous year in the hitter-friendly California League, batting .352/.403/.501 with seven homers, 35 RBIs and 38 steals (albeit in 65 tries) in 85 games. He has shown more over-the-fence power and better plate discipline this year, though he still needs to hone his all-around offensive game. He's the best bet to be Anaheim's shortstop of the future. Wood, 19, is having a very solid year in the Midwest League, hitting .286/.350/.472 with nine homers, 47 RBIs and 10 steals in 78 games. At the same age, Aybar batted .308/.346/.446 in the MWL last year. Wood does need to cut down on his strikeouts (72 in 301 at-bats), but he's been quite impressive for a teenager in his first full season. Already bigger than most shortstops at 6-foot-3 and 185 pounds, it's possible he may outgrow the position. If that happens, he should have enough bat and tools to do well at second base, third base or even catcher. Callaspo, 21, has been challenged by jumping to the Texas League. He has hit .275/.313/.357 with three homers, 30 RBIs and nine steals (versus 10 caught stealings) in 86 games. He projects as an average defender at shortstop, compared to above average at second base. He's more of a contact hitter than Aybar or Wood, and he's still excelling in that regard with just 20 strikeouts in 364 at-bats. July 9, 2004 If you go to our main index today, you'll find a link to an excerpt from senior writer Alan Schwarz' new book, "The Numbers Game." Alan also will be stopping by to chat about his book later this afternoon. If you have even a casual interest in baseball statistics, you'll want to read this book. Like the rest of Alan's work, it's detailed, it's well-researched and it's well-written. Not only does Alan track the evolution of baseball statistics, but he also delves deeply into the men responsible and does so in entertaining fashion. "The Numbers Game" is currently available in bookstores. For more information, visit www.alanschwarz.com.
I wouldn't read too much into Beane's desire not to include Garcia in the Beltran trade. It could be that Beane considers Garcia his closer of the future, or that he simply values Garcia more than Mike Wood, whom he did surrender in the deal. Beane's past trade record doesn't means he doesn't like power pitchers. Colome and Sierra were traded for more immediate bullpen help, while Vizcaino was out of options, wasn't going to make the A's out of spring training and would have been lost on waivers if Oakland hadn't traded him. German was used to obtain prospects Beane eventually turned into Erubiel Durazo, whom he had stalked for a long while. A 21-year-old righthander, Garcia made our A's depth chart but not our Top 30 Prospects list in the 2004 Prospect Handbook, and it's safe to say he'll be ranked this year. He seems to have conquered the intermittent shoulder soreness that slowed his progress and has shot from low Class A Kane County to Double-A Midland with ease. Showcasing a 93-95 mph fastball, he has posted a 65-14 strikeout-walk ratio in just 38 innings, while opponents have batted .178 with nary a homer. He should reach the majors shortly after he refines his slider or splitter into a good second pitch.
Dan Starr Ambler, Pa. Please tell me Ryan Howard will be added to the U.S. roster for the Futures Game. All the guy is doing is leading the minors in both homers and RBIs. If BA released a midseason Top 100 Prospects list, where might Howard rank? Don Smith Philadelphia Howard is having a tremendous year, batting .316/.400/.690 with 33 homers and 88 RBIs, and leading the Eastern League in runs (63), homers, RBIs and slugging. (Angels third baseman Dallas McPherson passed him for the minor league RBI lead last night with his 89th.) Howard is an average first baseman with the glove, but at 6-foot-4 and 230 pounds, he doesn't move well enough to try another position. With Thome signed through 2008 with a vesting option for 2009, Howard will need a trade to play regularly in the majors. Several top first-base prospects have been dealt in recent years, including Hee Seop Choi (in a deal for Derrek Lee), Adrian Gonzalez (Ugueth Urbina), Nick Johnson (Javier Vazquez) and Carlos Pena twice (prospects the first time, then Jeff Weaver). Howard would be a nice trading chip and could help bring a significant player to the Phillies. Assistant editor Chris Kline recently ranked Howard No. 8 on his list of top first-base prospects in the minors, and I concur. Why doesn't he rank higher? Howard is a little old for Double-A at age 24, but he won't move up to Triple-A until he shows better command of the strike zone (32 unintentional walks, 103 strikeouts in 313 at-bats). That hasn't hurt him so far in the minors, but it could when he reaches the minors. If we did a midseason Top 100, I'd put Howard in the 51-75 range. As for the Futures Game, when we put the rosters together we're limited to two players per organization and basically two per position (excluding outfielders and pitchers). There's no question Howard would be a deserving choice. But Prince Fielder (Brewers) and Michael Aubrey (Indians) are better prospects (if only slightly so), so we went with them as the U.S. first basemen.
Alex Bozich Louisville Again, don't read too much into who's included or not included in a trade. Another way to look at the Garcia deal is that perhaps the Mariners wouldn't have accepted Borchard in lieu of Reed. After initial hopes that Borchard might be their center fielder of the future, the White Sox have played him in right field this year, and Seattle obviously has Ichiro to man that position. Borchard may get a shot at the right-field job in Chicago next year if Ordonez departs as a free agent. Their center-field situation is still muddled, so maybe they'll even give him another try there. Borchard has shown some improvement with the bat this year, hitting .267/.329/.500 with 16 homers and 48 RBIs in 78 games in his third stint in Triple-A Charlotte. That's a positive sign after he batted .253/.307/.398 there in 2003, but it's not any better than he performed in Triple-A in 2002. He still swings and misses a lot, and he has hit just .240 since batting .349 in May. Borchard is a tough prospect to figure out. He went backward so much last year that it was easy to write him off as a bust, but that would be premature. He's 25 now and won't establish himself as a big leaguer until 2005 at the earliest, so he probably won't be the star the White Sox envisioned when they handed him a record signing bonus in 2000. However, he still can have a decent major league career if he can make some semblance of consistent contact, and his power is undeniable. July 6, 2004 It has been a relatively quiet year in terms of having to make changes to the Futures Game rosters. So far the only two players who have been lost are Padres catcher Humberto Quintero and Astros second baseman Chris Burke, both promoted to the majors. Blue Jays backstop Robinzon Diaz will take Quintero's spot. No official decision has been made on Burke, but he'll almost certainly be replaced by another Astros infielder—the game is in Houston, after all—and the leading candidates in that case would be shortstop Tommy Whiteman and second baseman Brooks Conrad.
Jack Kilbride Tampa That was the complete list, as just 12 draftees have made it to Cooperstown thus far. As Jack surmises, that's because the draft didn't come into play until 1965, and most of the Hall of Famers began their careers before then. But that's starting to change, as the last seven and 11 of the last 12 players elected by the writers came from the draft era. The Veterans Committee has yet to honor a draftee. Anyway, let's take another look at that list, which didn't include Carlton Fisk (secondary phase), Kirby Puckett (regular) or Tom Seaver (secondary), all January first-round picks:
We also sorted MVPs, Cy Young Award winners and World Series MVPs by round, and found throughout that most of the quality is contained in the first round or two of a draft. That isn't going to change too much in future years. I can come up with just seven players who have been drafted in the fifth round or later who likely will wind up in Cooperstown. Piazza (62nd round) is by far the lowest pick, with Ryne Sandberg (20th) a distant second. The rest of the group includes Jim Thome (13th), Albert Pujols (13th; I know it's early, but do you want to bet against him?), Rich Gossage (ninth), Wade Boggs (seventh) and Tim Raines (fifth). Raines might not get the nod, but he deserves it. I'll give you 13 other candidates, all of whom I believe will come up short of Cooperstown. Working my way up from the bottom of the draft: Keith Hernandez (42nd round), Mark Grace (24th), John Smoltz (22nd), Jeff Kent (20th), Don Mattingly (19th), Bret Saberhagen (19th), Orel Hershiser (17th), Buddy Bell (16th), Jose Canseco (15th), Dave Parker (14th), Andre Dawson (11th), Fred McGriff (ninth) and Dwight Evans (fifth). Now compare that to these slam-dunk Hall of Famers from the first round: Alex Rodriguez (No. 1 overall pick), Ken Griffey Jr. (No. 1), Barry Larkin (No. 4), Barry Bonds (No. 6), Derek Jeter (No. 6), Frank Thomas (No. 7), Todd Helton (No. 8), Mark McGwire (No. 10), Manny Ramirez (No. 13), Roger Clemens (No. 19) and Rafael Palmeiro (No. 22). And there's a deep second tier of possible Cooperstown honorees, led by Nomar Garciaparra (No. 12), Mike Mussina (No. 20) and Craig Biggio (No. 22).
Bob Quesinberry San Francisco Marquardt hit .530 with five homers at shortstop and went 6-1, 0.81 on the mound, and he's a legitimate pro prospect. But his statistics and pro potential didn't stack up with those of the eight infielders who made our two postseason high school All-America teams. Though his statistics were impressive, scouts weren't as taken with Marquardt as they had been in the past. They thought he looked stiff at shortstop—the Phillies drafted him as a third baseman—and thought he gave less than full effort at times. Scouts did like his 87-92 mph fastball and his slider, but thought he should have been able to overmatch hitters even more than he did. The Rangers reportedly offered Marquardt $200,000 as a possible sixth-round pick, and the Angels made a $160,000 bid in the seventh round, but he declined both. He'll play at Washington State unless the Phillies persuade him to sign, which looks unlikely.
Dustin Wilson Bloomington, Ill. Sing was a 20th-round pick out of an Illinois high school in 1999, and he has appeared in just one of the four editions of the Prospect Handbook—the edition that came out after the 2002 season. He was limited to 81 games last year by hamstring problems and mononucleosis, and he had a bad year (a career-low .222 with nine homers) to boot. He's now 23 and in his third stint in the Florida State League, so Sing's .287/.431/.648 numbers with FSL highs in runs (62), homers, RBIs (74) and slugging have to be taken with a grain of salt. But the Cubs have also seen some Richie Sexson in the rangy 6-foot-4, 210-pounder, and he is a prospect. He needs to go up to Double-A and produce before I get too excited about him, but if Sing stays in the FSL he has a great chance to erase the league home run record of 33, set by Ed Levy of the Sanford Giants in 1950 and matched by Jim Fuller of the Miami Orioles in 1971. As Dustin notes the Cubs have first-base prospects immediately ahead and behind of Sing as well. A 2002 second-round pick out of a Florida high school, Dopirak is the most feared power hitter in the Midwest League, which he leads in homers and RBIs (64) while batting .309/.370/.609, and he has more raw pop than just about anyone in the minors. If he can make enough consistent contact (he has 173 strikeouts in 170 pro games), he'll be a force to be reckoned with. Hoffpauir, another 2002 draftee (13th round out of Lamar), got off to a hot start last season before tapering off in the second half. He had another big first half this year, batting .317/.352/.522 before straining his left wrist, which will keep him out until late July. And don't forget sluggers Jason Dubois (Triple-A Iowa) and Kevin Collins (who's outslugging Dopirak at Lansing), who are playing the outfield right now but could wind up at first base. Lee is one of the better first basemen in the majors, and with a three-year, $22.5 million contract that runs through 2006, he won't be leaving Chicago in the near future. It's possible that one of these guys could wind up in left field as Moises Alou's eventual replacement (Sing and Hoffpauir both logged outfield time in 2003), but otherwise they'll have to hope for a trade if they want to be a big league regular in the near future. July 2, 2004 UCLA's status as the best program never to win a College World Series game should end in the near future. The Bruins hired UC Irvine's John Savage as head coach yesterday, a move that should make them a stronger national championship contender once he gets established in Westwood. An outstanding recruiter and pitching coach, Savage guided the Anteaters to the NCAA playoffs in 2004, the program's third season after being resurrected.
Ian Cobb Dallas The prospect I'm most looking forward to seeing at the Futures Game next weekend is Hernandez. His line last night was 6-7-1-1-2-8, with the lone run coming on a homer by Frisco DH Tydus Meadows. He seems almost too good to be true for someone with an April 8, 1986 birthdate, though I've never heard anyone question his age and the Mariners say it's legitimate. Hernandez is the best pitching prospect in the minors right now. He's 18 and has two plus-plus pitches in his mid-90s fastball and his curveball. He's still very projectable at 6-foot-3 and 170 pounds, too. In 167 pro innings (and he always has been very young for his league), he has gone 16-5, 2.47 with a 213-55 strikeout-walk ratio, .233 opponent average and nine homers. The Mariners are trying to bring Hernandez along slowly, giving him time to refine his changeup and learn the finer points of pitching. But he has been so good that he's making that difficult. Gooden was a little more dominant in his 18-year-old season (he was BA's 1983 Minor League Player of the Year), but he also was in more of a pitcher's league and spent the entire year in high Class A. Seattle has enough pitching so that it probably will resist the temptation to put Hernandez in its rotation at the start of the next year, but he might not wait much longer than that.
Joe Koch St. Paul I usually get a flood of these questions for different teams at this time every year, and Joe wins the prize for the first of 2004. The Twins had three first-round picks and two more supplemental first-rounders, so our top prospect list figures to undergo some major revisions. Also, Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Grant Balfour and Lew Ford aren't going to be eligible for the list at the end of this season, which will lead to more changes. Here's how our Top 15 looked coming into 2004 and how it might look at the end of the year:
Those numbers in parentheses are where the players ranked on our Twins Top 30 list coming into the season. Lew Ford ranked 16th, much to the regret of former BA national writer/current Padres scout Josh Boyd, who put together our Minnesota rankings. I've always liked Kubel and Baker, but in April I wouldn't have thought they'd occupy the top two spots on the list. Kubel wasn't an unknown, but his power has returned in a huge way after disappearing in 2003. He just makes the Twins' outfield logjam that much more crowded. A second-round pick last year, Baker has very good command of a fastball/changeup/slider/knuckle-curve repertoire that already has taken him to Double-A. I'd rank Moses higher if he didn't have a back injury, which is never good news. It's very hard to separate the pitchers on the second half of this list, though they'll probably do that themselves in the second half of the season. I gave some consideration to Triple-A third baseman Terry Tiffee and high Class A outfielder Trent Oeltjen before leaving them off. I put three 2004 draftees on the Top 15: California high school shortstop Trevor Plouffe (No. 20 overall), Minnesota lefthander Glen Perkins (No. 22) and Central Florida righty Matt Fox (No. 35). How they do this summer obviously will have a huge bearing on where we rank them. Scouts I've talked to won't be surprised if Plouffe proves to be a better hitter than No. 1 overall pick Matt Bush, a fellow southern California prep shortstop. Perkins throws three pitches for strikes and they all grade out as above average at times. Fox also has good control and has touched 96 mph with his fastball. Prep righties Kyle Waldrop (No. 25) and Jay Rainville (No. 35) also could make a push for the list. Waldrop was considered a tough sign but quickly agreed to a $1 million bonus. He has an average fastball, a plus curve and precocious feel for a changeup. Rainville is more of a power pitcher and needs to tweak his secondary offerings.
Matt Terranova Oakland While I have a lot of respect for Beane's ability to field a consistent contender in Oakland, he's only concerned with Windsor's value to the Athletics after they made him a third-round pick. He's showing no regard for the commitment Windsor and Horton made to Cal State Fullerton. There's no magic number for pitch counts. While I don't think it would be a good idea for a pitcher to routinely throw 145 pitches per game, as Windsor did in his June 19 shutout of South Carolina, context is also important. Windsor wasn't throwing a lot of breaking balls and wasn't laboring at the end of the game, requiring a total of 24 pitches to pitch a perfect eighth and ninth inning. Five days later, he came back and threw 48 pitches in relief to eliminate the Gamecocks. Two days later, he went the distance to clinch the championship against Texas, throwing 129 pitches. Again, he didn't load up on breaking balls and maintained his mechanics throughout the contest, requiring just 17 pitches to finish the final two innings. Windsor is nearly 22. As a college third-round pick, the odds that he reaches the majors are roughly 40 percent, and his chances of having a significant career are about 6 percent. The average third-rounder doesn't even reach the majors, so why shouldn't he try to win the College World Series championship? What he did is the equivalent of a starter averaging 107 pitches while working Games One, Four and Seven of the World Series. Remember the hue and cry last year, when Stanford coach Mark Marquess let John Hudgins throw 350 pitches in a 10-day span? Hudgins was diagnosed with a sore shoulder shortly after signing with the Rangers as a third-round pick, and you would have thought Marquess had taken an ax to Hudgins' arm. Even the New York Times decided it needed to criticize Marquess. Fast forward to 2004, and Hudgins has been lights out all year while reaching Double-A. College baseball doesn't exist to serve Billy Beane nor the Athletics, and there's no evidence that Windsor will be harmed by his efforts to bring the Titans a CWS championship. The only person being selfish and self-serving was Beane when he made those comments. |
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