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 If you have a question, send it to askba@baseballamerica.com. Please include your full name and hometown if you'd like your letter to be considered for use in an upcoming column. Also, please understand that we can't respond to every question. By Jim Callis Aug. 27, 2004 Some draft news: The Cubs signed Georgia Tech second baseman Eric Patterson, their eighth-round pick and Corey's little brother, for $300,000. And we should have an updated story tomorrow morning on negotiations between the Diamondbacks and their first-round pick, Florida State shortstop Stephen Drew. Be sure to check that out.
Dave Rainer Huntington Beach, Calif. Teams have realized the importance of a deep farm system since Branch Rickey created the first one. But the draft is such a crapshoot, it's much more than a matter of desiring a well-stocked farm system. There's one avenue to acquiring talent, however, that I've always been surprised teams don't take more often: using later-round picks to take early-round talent, then spending the extra money to sign them. The Mariners and Red Sox were able to make up for the lack of first-round picks this year by signing players they believed had first-round talent. Seattle set a third-round bonus record by giving shortstop Matt Tuiasosopo $2.29 million. Boston established a new mark for non-draft-and-follows after the 10th round by paying 12th-round lefthander Mike Rozier $1.575 million. Likewise, Anaheim paid 18th-round third baseman Mark Trumbo $1.425 million. I fully expect the Angels to sign 12th overall pick Jered Weaver to a huge major league contract at some point, but if they don't, they still got a first-round-caliber player in Trumbo. After saving $9.25 million by trading Larry Walker, the Rockies found $925,000 to sign 14th-round outfielder Dexter Fowler. Shortly before the draft, the Royals came up with $1.05 million to sign draft-and-follow righthander Luis Cota, their 10th-round pick from 2003. Colorado and Kansas City got the equivalent of bonus first-round picks because Fowler would have gone that high if not for signability questions, and Cota would have had he re-entered the draft. All five of those players set new bonus records for their rounds. Cubs second-round righthander Grant Johnson didn't set a new standard with $1.26 million, but he did get $460,000 more than any other player in that round this year. Johnson looked like a sure first-rounder before he tore his labrum after his freshman year at Notre Dame. He's on the road to recovery, which could be a coup for Chicago—another club that lacked a first-round pick. Yes, I know pursuing this strategy can be expensive and leads to the possibility of costly mistakes. And it's not exactly something the Expos can try. Unquestionably, however, teams get tremendous value for the draft round when they take premium talent late in the draft.
Nick Lucca Horsham, Pa. I believe all six of the remaining first-rounders will sign. Drew (No. 15 overall) will probably be the next to sign, perhaps before his first scheduled class at Florida State on Tuesday and almost certainly before CEO-elect Jeff Moorad (a bitter rival of Drew's adviser, Scott Boras) officially joins the Diamondbacks on Wednesday. I touched on Weaver, another Boras advisee, above. I'll be shocked if BA's top-rated prospect for the draft doesn't get the largest financial package of any 2004 draftee and isn't the last first-round to sign. His deal might not happen until next year. That leaves righthanders Justin Verlander (No. 2, Tigers), Philip Humber (No. 3, Mets), Jeff Niemann (No. 4, Devil Rays) and Wade Townsend (No. 8, Orioles). Word is that they've been waiting to see what Drew and Weaver would get and/or seeking major league contracts. Townsend went a little higher than expected because Baltimore owner Peter Angelos insisted his team take a college pitcher, and I can't see the Orioles giving him more than slot money, which would be roughly $2.25 million. Verlander and Humber very well may get big league deals. Niemann might be the last first-rounder to sign before Weaver, because he likely would have gone No. 1 overall had he been fully healthy this spring. Tampa Bay has a history of spreading out its bonuses for its first-round picks, so he probably will wind up with a major league contract as well.
Simon Boisvert Montreal It's much more prudent for clubs not to rush very young players, rather than promote them aggressively and risk harming their confidence. At 18, Young is getting a good test in the low Class A South Atlantic League, and he's responding by hitting .322/.383/.530 with 22 homers and 105 RBIs in 121 games. Spending the last 4-6 weeks in high Class A wouldn't notably accelerate his development. Most teams have handled their 2003 high school first-rounders like the Devil Rays have. Only three of the 12 players are above low Class A, and Duncan is the only one of the nine hitters who has moved up. The Mets promoted Lastings Milledge to high Class A for three weeks, then sent him back to low Class A after he struggled. Young easily could take the same path as Upton. Unless he totally flops in the Arizona Fall League, which would be a huge surprise after he hit .417/.451/.625 in 15 games there last year in his first taste of pro ball, the Devil Rays could start him in Double-A next year. And if he keeps mashing, he could reach the majors by the end of the season. Aug. 24, 2004 Scott Kazmir's major league debut sure was fun to watch, wasn't it? Unless you're a Mets fan, of course. With Victor Zambrano on New York's disabled list with elbow inflammation, Kazmir shut out the Mariners for five innings to earn a 9-0 victory. His command is still a work in progress, as evidenced by the 101 pitches he threw, but he threw in the mid-90s and showed some nasty sliders. Seattle's own lefty prospect, Bobby Madritsch, also looked impressive against the Devil Rays. He allowed a three-run homer to Jose Cruz Jr. and took the first loss of his major league career, but he showed a nice changeup to go with a plus fastball. He's now 3-1, 2.84 in eight appearances.
Cliff Jordan Chicago What's going on with Brad Eldred at Double-A Altoona? Twelve homers and 42 RBIs in 25 games? But he also has just three walks. Is he turning into a solid prospect? Is he better than Ryan Howard? Ron Leighton Annandale, Va. Eldred's big tool, obviously, is power. He finished second in the NCAA Division I home run race with 29 at Florida International in 2002, after which the Pirates drafted him in the sixth round. In his first 1½ pro seasons, he hit 38 more homers and could match that total this year. I wouldn't put Eldred in the same class as Howard, but they are similar players. Beyond the prodigious pop, both are big (Eldred is 6-foot-6 and 240 pounds), 23 years old, strike out a lot (136 in 430 at-bats for Eldred), don't run particularly well and are just adequate defensively at first base. Howard is a better hitter and draws more walks Eldred, whose big advantage is that he doesn't have Jim Thome blocking his path in Pittsburgh.
Ryan Baker Parma, Ohio Orvella was a 13th-round pick in 2003 out of North Carolina State, where he was mainly a scrappy shortstop with a knack for getting on base. But he also pitched 13 innings as a senior, and though he posted an 8.10 ERA, he also hit 95 mph on the radar gun. Since becoming a full-time pitcher, he has been untouchable. In addition to the gaudy K-BB ratio, he also has a career 1.46 ERA as a pro, and opponents have hit just .166 with six homers against him. The only thing that has slowed him down was a partially torn meniscus in his left knee that ended his 2003 pro debut after 10 games. Orvella, 23, has continued to light up radar guns, touching 96 during his first Double-A save. His second pitch is a low-80s slider, and one scout described him as having average feel for an average breaking ball. How well he refines the slider will determine his major league role, because his fastball obviously won't hold him back.
Lubomir Merkov New York Nippert and Pena (then known as Rosario) entered 2004 as the top-rated pitching prospects in the Diamondbacks system, but it has been a forgettable year for both. Nippert tore the ulnar collateral ligament in his elbow and required Tommy John surgery, which will sideline him for at least most of the 2005 season as well. In May, the ESPN uncovered alleged improprieties in Rosario's signing for $400,000 out of the Dominican Republic in June 2002. Shortly thereafter, it was revealed that the pitcher's true identity was Ramon Antonio Pena Paulino and that he was born on Jan. 9, 1982. He had been using the name and birthdate (May 16, 1985) of his nephew. Major League Baseball has finished its investigation into the matter, but has yet to announce its findings or any sanctions. Rosario has to return to the Dominican to address his immigration status. Whether he'll be allowed to return to the United States by the Immigration and Naturalization Service, which has cracked down on visa fraud after the Sept. 11 attacks, remains to be seen. Aug. 20, 2004 Think the Padres might want to have the Brian Giles trade back? He's having a good year though down from his previous standards, batting .281/.377/.468 with 18 homers and 72 RBIs in 118 games. (And he has been much better at home, so don't blame PETCO Park). Meanwhile, Jason Bay is nearly eight years younger than Giles and has replaced him in the Pirates outfield by batting .299/.367/.576 with 17 homers and 54 RBIs in 80 games. He's not even the best part of the trade for Pittsburgh, though. That would be 23-year-old lefty Oliver Perez, whose 8-6 record belies a sterling ERA (2.90), strikeout-walk ratio (175-60 in 143 innings) and opponent batting average (.202). The third piece of the trade might turn out to be useful as well. Lefty Cory Stewart has struggled with a left ribcage strain and a 6-5, 5.28 record in 15 starts at Triple-A Nashville, but he has the stuff to be at least a good big league reliever. Total cost for 2004: Giles, $7 million; Bay and Perez, $626,000.
Teun Fetz Grayslake, Ill. Loewen was considered a better prospect in 2002 and did (and still has) a higher ceiling. He throws 3-4 mph harder than Francis, and his curveball can be more devastating. But Francis is much more polished and mature. He's three years older and spent three years in college. When Loewen went to Chipola (Fla.) JC, he wasn't seeking any personal development. He was just keeping his negotiating options open after talks broke down with the Orioles. Loewen's control was never his strong suit. In our 2003 Draft Preview, I wrote: Loewen tailed off later in the season and got hit hard in his final start, a state tournament loss to Manatee CC, when his command deserted him. At times during the spring Loewen showed the ability to command his fastball to both sides of the plate; at others he seemed content to just throw his pitches over the middle of the plate. Loewen had all kinds of trouble finding the strike zone in big league camp this spring, and he has walked 67 batters while striking out 108 in 109 pro innings. His ability to refine his command will determine how close he comes to reaching his high ceiling. In terms of pure stuff, Francis doesn't have a pitch that compares to Loewen's fastball or curveball. But Francis does have a solid average fastball, a good curveball and developing changeup. More important, he throws strikes with his pitches and keeps them down in the zone. His strikeout-walk ratio (388-82 in 346 innings) speaks to his ability to pitch, and that's why he has developed more rapidly than Loewen.
Jason Gordon San Francisco It's typical for highly touted recruits to get lost in the shuffle a little bit as freshmen at Stanford. The Cardinal brings in so much talent year after year, there isn't much opportunity to break into the lineup or rotation right away. That's why summer ball can be so crucial to players in need of playing time. Stanford had four freshmen on the Cape (lefthander Blake Holler, righthander Greg Reynolds, infielder Adam Sorgi and outfielder Jim Rapoport) plus one sophomore (second baseman Chris Lewis). During the spring, that group combined for 173 at-bats and 85 innings at Stanford, with swingman Holler the only one to see regular duty. Reynolds has the highest ceiling of the group, as he's 6-foot-8 and showed a 90-mph fastball and nice curveball and changeup while going 4-3, 2.27 in nine games for the Bourne Braves. Rapoport, who should emerge now that Sam Fuld has graduated, showed good speed and instincts while hitting .217/.262/.316 with one homer, 14 RBIs and 12 steals in 44 games for the champion Yarmouth-Dennis Red Sox. He also contributed a game-saving catch in the 10th inning of the championship-clinching victory. Holler threw in the high 80s and flashed a hard curveball for Yarmouth-Dennis, going 1-1, 3.79 in 15 outings. Lewis' tools are ahead of his baseball skills right now, as he hit .193/.258/.255 with two homers and 11 RBIs in 39 games for the Falmouth Commodores. He showed a strong but erratic arm at second base. Sorgi didn't make much of an impression, batting .162/.162/.297 with one homer and one RBI in 15 games for Bourne.
Ross DiBello Cleveland I've gotten a few emails about players who didn't make my Top 30 list, and the first part of the answer is always the same. The Cape is loaded with talent, and not everyone can make the Top 30. I could rank and write up 75 players easily if I had the time and space, but the list stops at 30. That doesn't mean that players who don't make the list aren't well regarded and won't do well in the draft or the major leagues. It just means they're not among the very best in the very best summer league. The Cape is an extreme pitcher's league, as hitters combined for a .225 average and the average game featured 0.8 homers. The league ERA was 2.74, with pitchers averaging 8.5 strikeouts per nine innings. Madsen had a nice summer, but he didn't exactly blow hitters away with 32 strikeouts in 48 innings. Physically, his size (6 feet, 160 pounds) and stuff (a fringe average fastball, an OK curve he throws for strikes, a changeup in its formative stages) just didn't match up with the pitchers who made the Top 30. At 21½ years of age, he also was one of the older players on the Cape. Madsen has gone 17-5, 4.17 the last two years at Ohio State, with a 104-62 K-BB ratio in 153 innings. He has pitched well in the Big Ten and NCAA tournaments, but he went undrafted in June. Aug. 17, 2004 B.J. Upton hit his first big league homer tonight, connecting off Kelvim Escobar. That made Upton the first teenager to homer in the majors since . . . Aramis Ramirez in 1998. Upton has now gone 10-for-20 in his last five games, raising his 11-game career totals to .357/.386/.548 with one homer and four RBIs.
David Saw Diamond Bar, Calif. Elway actually did sign with the Yankees. New York made him its top pick (second round) in 1981, then signed him for $140,000 that September. To put the money in perspective, the highest bonus in draft history at that point was the $200,000 the Tigers used to steer Kirk Gibson away from a possible NFL career in 1978. The deal allowed Elway to play football at Stanford, and he joined the Yankees system during the summer of 1982, shortly after the club drafted (but failed to sign) Bo Jackson out of high school as a second-rounder. Elway played 42 games at short-season Oneonta, hitting .318/.432/.464 with four homers and 25 RBIs in 42 games at age 22. He also showed good plate discipline (28 walks, 25 strikeouts in 151 at-bats) and speed on the bases (13 steals in 16 attempts.) After the season, Baseball America ranked Elway as the Yankees' No. 1 prospect, ahead of such players as Jose Rijo (No. 6) and Don Mattingly (No. 9). Ken Leiker wrote: His six weeks in the New York-Penn League convinced the Yankees that he can be in the big leagues soon—assuming he scorns the National Football League. After a very slow start in Oneonta, Elway finished at .318 with four homers and 13 stolen bases in 42 games. "If he had devoted himself to baseball instead of football, he'd probably be in the big leagues now," [former Yankees farm director Bill] Livesey said. "Once he got to Oneonta last year and got into it, his progress was in leaps and bounds. He was coming on as fast as anyone in the organization when he had to go back to Stanford." The Yankees project Elway as a high average hitter whose power totals will rise as he learns to pull the ball in Yankee Stadium. He bats lefthanded. Otherwise, he has an extremely powerful arm and runs well for his size (6-foot-4, 210 pounds). "He's just average from home to first," Livesey said, "but he runs very well from first to third." Should everything go according to the Yankee plan, Elway would be ready to take right field for them in the near future. That would leave Steve Kemp and Don Baylor as designated hitters—the most expensive platoon in big league history. Of course, Elway didn't scorn the NFL. When he returned to Stanford for his senior year, he finished second in the Heisman Trophy balloting and went No. 1 overall in the 1983 NFL draft. The Yankees gave it their best shot, offering him a five-year, $2.5 million contract, by far the wealthiest contract ever tendered to a player with his limited pro experience. "Baseball owes the Denver Broncos a favor," an anonymous baseball executive said at the time. "They saved us a lot of headaches. What do you think the agents would have been asking for first-round picks in June if Elway had gotten a half-million a year?"
Jesse Lopez Phoenix It's simple: Most trades today are more about money than talent. The Cardinals' minor league talent is worst than most, but their financial situation is better than most. They were able to absorb $9.25 million of the remaining $17.5 million on Walker's contract, and that was more than enough for the Rockies to make they deal. They got lefthander Chris Narveson and two fringe prospects from St. Louis, but more important Colorado suddenly cleared payroll. The Rockies now can fit re-signing Jeromy Burnitz, Shawn Chacon, Jason Jennings and Jason Kennedy into their 2005 budget. They also are close to wrapping up a $925,000 bonus agreement with their 14th-round pick, Georgia high school outfielder Dexter Fowler, a first-round talent who slipped because of signability. With McGwire and Rolen, general manager Walt Jocketty was able to acquire both players cheaply because they were pending free agents who had no intention of re-signing with their clubs. Jocketty got McGwire from Oakland for pitchers Eric Ludwick, T.J. Mathews and Blake Stein, who actually were among St. Louis' best prospects at the time. Rolen came from Philadelphia at the cost of Placido Polanco, Bud Smith and Mike Timlin. In that case, the Phillies simply accepted the best offer after they alienated Rolen and ensured they wouldn't get full value in return. The days of talent-for-talent trades are gone. Go to Trade Central and look at the deals in the last two months, and you'll see that they mostly involved soon-to-be free agents (Carlos Beltran, Kris Benson, Steve Finley, Freddy Garcia, Nomar Garciaparra, Esteban Loaiza) and contract dumps (Jose Contreras, Carl Everett, Richard Hidalgo, Walker). The Dodgers-Marlins trade that has sparked much debate was influence in part by Paul LoDuca and Guillermo Mota heading for arbitration in the offseason. Josh Phelps' and Victor Zambrano's arbitration eligibility also played a part in their trades.
Stephen Zielinski Pittsburgh McLouth has been one of my favorite Pirates sleepers for a while. He gets overlooked a lot because he was a 25th-round pick coming out of a Michigan high school in 2000, but he only slid that far because he was committed to the University of Michigan. McLouth signed for $500,000 and has hit .290/.365/.429 with 35 homers, 197 RBIs and 109 steals in 442 pro games. McLouth has gap power, good speed and fine instincts on the bases. His walk rate has dipped a little this year, but if he could pull it back up I could see him batting first or second for the Pirates in the future. He has played center field in the past but has spent most of 2004 in right field, where he fits better defensively. If he keeps hitting like this, the Pirates probably will give McLouth a look in the second half of 2005. Aug. 6, 2004 Welcome to the big leagues, Merkin Valdez. After the Giants summoned him for bullpen help, the first three batters Valdez had to face were Albert Pujols (double), Scott Rolen (lineout) and Ken Griffey Jr. (strikeout). Life should start to get easier for him. With Jeff Moorad becoming CEO of the Diamondbacks on Sept. 1, am I the only one who would love to watch the negotiations with his bitter rival, Scott Boras, over the team's unsigned first-round pick, Florida State shortstop Stephen Drew? I have next week off, so I won't get to more of your questions until Aug. 17.
Nick Lucca Horsham, Pa. I came up with four players who fit the criteria of being premium prospects having excellent seasons. Listing them alphabetically, they are: Rockies lefthander Jeff Francis, Twins outfielder Jason Kubel, Angels third baseman Dallas McPherson and Devil Rays shortstop B.J. Upton. John Manuel, who watches over the minors for BA, suggests that Rockies third baseman Ian Stewart could be in the mix. Stewart is having a fine year and could factor into the discussion, but he's in low Class A and probably wouldn't beat out any of the other four guys, all of whom have succeeded in Triple-A. Phillies first baseman Ryan Howard has huge numbers but isn't quite in the same prospect class as the others. Mariners wunderkind Felix Hernandez is the best pitching prospect in the minors, but his numbers aren't quite dominant enough. So that brings us back to Francis, Kubel, McPherson and Upton. Before Tampa Bay promoted him to the majors, Upton was the top prospect in the minors. He hit a combined .315/.410/.505 with 14 homers, 51 RBIs and 20 steals in 98 games between Double-A and Triple-A. His defensive inconsistency (35 errors) is still a concern, though he has the tools to be an outstanding defender. Getting called up doesn't necessarily help or hurt his candidacy, as those of us who select the winner have varying views on that. My gut feeling right now is that Francis controls his destiny. In 21 starts between Double-A and Triple-A, he has gone 15-2, 1.82 with a 179-25 strikeout-walk ratio in 139 innings. Opponents have batted just .184 with nine homers against him. Francis hasn't slowed down after moving up to hitter-friendly Colorado Springs, and if he finishes strong I think he'll be our 2004 Minor League Player of the Year.
Alan Rittner St. Petersburg, Fla. Now that the Mets have jettisoned Scott Kazmir and Matt Peterson in trades that may prove to be short-sighted, which pitchers in the organization merit watching (excluding the unsigned Philip Humber from consideration)? Don't answer Bob Keppel and Aaron Heilman. Art Gering Phoenix Due to the miracle of the wireless web, I can now email you from the ledge of my building. As a despondent Mets fan, is it as bad as we fear? Why did GM Jim Duquette go after Kris Benson and Victor Zambrano when the trade deadline would artificially inflate their worth, thus costing New York its top two arms? Despite all the talk, it looks like the Mets have reverted to their win-now, patience-less strategy. Clearly, they have a short memory. Peter Duffy New York I'm stunned by the Mets' moves at the trade deadline. I thought Scott Kazmir was untouchable, and to trade him for a guy like Victor Zambrano is puzzling. Why did the Mets include Kazmir, and why would they deal three of their Top 10 Prospects? Kevin Cochran Wichita BA ranked the Mets system at No. 10 coming into the season. Where would you rank it now? With the losses of Scott Kazmir, Matt Peterson, Justin Huber and Joselo Diaz in trades and the promotion of David Wright, they took a big hit. But with Lastings Milledge, Aaron Baldiris, Brett Harper, Ryan Harvey, Yusmeiro Petit, Neal Musser, Bob Keppel, Jason Scobie and Kevin Deaton, it's not barren. Bruce Norlander Minneapolis At the begining of the season, BA ranked the Mets system No. 10. After Yusmeiro Petit's amazing season and the draft, it would be reasonable to think that the Mets still had a Top 10 farm system. But after the deadline trades and David Wright probably losing his prospect status this year, where would you rank the system now? The top two prospects would be Petit and Lastings Milledge, correct? John Tsuei Hsinchu, Taiwan Looks like the Mets' deadline dealings, especially the part where they gave up Kazmir, really struck a nerve. And, really, if you're a Mets fan, they should have. New York began July 30, the day it made those two trades, six games back (and trailing three teams) in the National League East and seven back (behind seven teams and tied with an eighth) in the NL wild-card race. The odds of coming back and reaching the postseason in that situation are slim, even slimmer when your overall record is under .500 (49-52), a sign that your club isn't exactly a powerhouse. Benson would have been available on the free-agent market in the offseason, and with Zambrano headed toward arbitration, Tampa Bay might have parted with him at a lower cost than Kazmir. Even if a miracle occurs and Benson and Zambrano lead the Mets to the playoffs, I still don't think the Kazmir trade is trade is defensible. The Mets didn't get enough value for the most electric lefthanded arm in the minors. There are whispers coming out of New York, from anonymous sources of course, that Kazmir has mechanical and makeup issues. All I know is that other teams I've spoken with valued Kazmir highly, and I think those whispers are just trying to justify the trade after the fact. As I've discussed a few times in Ask BA, when I rank organizations, I focus more on blue-chip talent than depth. Depth is nice and good to have, but you win at the major league level with stars. When we ranked the Mets 10th, it was largely on the basis of their cornerstone players: Kazuo Matsui and Wright, who are now in the majors, and Kazmir. Right behind them were three solid players: Peterson, Milledge and Huber. The only one who's still going to qualify as a prospect after the season is Milledge. The only other player they have who's in that category is Philip Humber, the still-unsigned No. 3 overall pick. Petit has put up some pretty numbers this year, but he's doing it more on deception and fastball life then on sheer stuff, and I want to see him succeed above high Class A before I get overly excited. When we rank organizations again in the offseason, the Mets will slide into the bottom half of baseball. Petit is now the Mets' best pitching prospect (until Humber signs) and I would rank him second overall in the organization behind Milledge. And at the risk of offending Art, I still hold out a little hope for Heilman. Bartolome Fortunato, Royce Ring, Tyler Yates could help the big league bullpen in the near future, but I don't see anyone in Double-A or Triple-A who looks like a serious rotation candidate.
Steve Turner San Dimas, Calif. The reason Steve can't find DeJaynes on a draft list is that the Cardinals signed him as a fifth-year college senior in 2003. (Fifth-year seniors can sign as a free agent between the time their season ends and a week before the draft.) DeJaynes was the NCAA Division II pitcher of the year that spring, leading that level with a 0.71 ERA and finishing second with an average of 12.8 strikeouts per nine innings. He hurt his arm in college and spent two years as a full-time outfielder before returning to the mound. A 23-year-old righthander, DeJaynes misses bats thanks to a nasty curveball and a very deceptive arm action (that also leads to some concern about his long-term health). His high-80s fastball is nothing special and he's old for low Class A, but he's earned himself the chance to keep proving himself at higher levels. I wouldn't start fitting him for a major league uniform yet, but it is fun to watch those strikeout totals mount. Aug. 3, 2004 One of my favorite projects I've worked on recently is our ranking of the best picks ever in each round of the draft. When I wrote that story three months ago, no 49th-rounder who signed ever had reached the majors, leaving me to choose the best unsigned pick: Bryn Smith (Cardinals, 1973). Reader Paul Covert (Lynnwood, Wash.) brightened my emailbox with the news that the drought has ended. Mariners righthander Scott Atchison, a 49th-rounder out of Texas Christian in 1998, made his big league debut on Saturday. Atchison gave up one run in 2 2/3 innings of relief against the Angels, immediately becoming the best 49th-round pick in baseball history. Now it's time for what is becoming my annual hijacking of my column. For the second straight year, the trade deadline fell in an inconvenient place on our issue calendar. If I did my annual trade analysis for the current issue, it would seem very outdated by the time it got to you. So today, I'm asking myself my own questions about baseball deals over the past two months. For more on the subject, visit Trade Central.
1. Cubs. This one's easy. Chicago upgraded from Alex Gonzalez to Nomar Garciaparra without touching its starting rotation or giving up anything it will miss off its major league roster. If they weren't before, the Cubs certainly are the clear wild-card favorite in the National League now. 2. Athletics. Late-inning relief was a problem for Oakland until Octavio Dotel arrived on the scene. No, his 4.71 ERA with the A's isn't pretty, but it masks his 34 strikeouts in 21 innings. He has been untouchable, if inconsistent. The bottom line is that Arthur Rhodes no longer has to be counted on in the ninth inning, and that's a good thing. Dotel came at the cost of two prospects, third baseman Mark Teahen (blocked by Eric Chavez) and righthander Mike Wood (a back-of-the-rotation guy who would have been a long reliever in Oakland). 3. White Sox. Poor Kenny Williams. Across town, Cubs GM Jim Hendry gets lauded every time he makes a move and it works out. Meanwhile, Williams works hard to improve his club, except every time he does something the White Sox don't respond like they should. That happened last year and it's happening again. Since he traded three young players to get Freddy Garcia on June 27, the White Sox have gone 14-16. Williams also added Carl Everett for two pitchers not in Chicago's plans, again to no avail. Jose Contreras has much better stuff than Esteban Loaiza, who may be suffering the effects of too many cut fastballs, so maybe the White Sox can turn Contreras around. He's not cheap, though, as he'll cost them $15 million in 2005-06. You'll notice the Dodgers and Marlins didn't make my top three. Though they made some major changes over the weekend, I'm not sure either improved significantly. I've always liked Hee Seop Choi, and getting him and Steve Finley into the Los Angeles lineup at the expense of Juan Encarnacion and Dave Roberts is a nice touch. So is putting Brad Penny into Wilson Alvarez' rotation spot. But Los Angeles took major hits at catcher (Brent Mayne/David Ross in place of Paul LoDuca) and eighth-inning relief (Guillermo Mota), so it's hard to say they'll be a vastly better club. Same thing with the Marlins. They're better at catcher (LoDuca over Mike Redmond) and in the bullpen (Mota will be at least their temporary closer). But what if Josh Beckett can't stay healthy? And Encarnacion is just a waste of at-bats as a corner outfielder.
1. Devil Rays. They turned erratic Victor Zambrano, who's going to get more than he deserves in arbitration this offseason, into Scott Kazmir, who has the best stuff of any lefty in the minor leagues. Enough said. 2. Royals. Before we mention the Carlos Beltran trade, can someone please explain how Kansas City got precocious, hard-throwing righthander Denny Bautista from a fellow non-contender, the Orioles, for the low, low price of Jason Grimsley? For Beltran, whom they had no chance of re-signing, the Royals did as well as could have been expected, getting their third baseman of the future (Mark Teahen), their catcher of the future (John Buck) and a possible starting pitcher (Mike Wood). And when the Pirates just had to reclaim Jose Bautista as part of the Kris Benson trade, Kansas City wound up with Justin Huber, who may or may not be a catcher but certainly can hit. 3. Expos. Orlando Cabrera wanted no part of staying in Montreal. Hendry and Boston's Theo Epstein may have done the heavy lifting, but the upshot is that the Expos parlayed Cabrera into their third baseman (Brendan Harris) and possible closer (Francis Beltran) for the next few years. Everett was worthless in Montreal, so getting Jon Rauch for him was a good move if Rauch can recapture even a glimmer of his past promise.
1. Scott Kazmir, lhp, Devil Rays from Mets (Zambrano trade). After the Mets inexplicably dealt him for Zambrano while barely being on the fringes of contention, word came out of New York that Kazmir might break down and might be nothing more than a reliever. He might be Ron Guidry, too, and no lefty in the minors can match his stuff (mid-90s fastball, hard breaking ball). Between Kazmir and 2004 first-round pick Jeff Niemann (still unsigned), the Rays finally have some pitchers to build around. 2. Jeremy Reed, of, Mariners from White Sox (Garcia). Reed never was the second coming of Tony Gwynn, even when he led the minors with a .373 average in 2003, his first full year as a pro. He's still a valuable commodity, however, because he's a gifted hitter with 15-20 homer power and good speed. He's even more valuable if he can stick in center field, and Seattle should put him in the lineup and find out if he can immediately. 3. Brendan Harris, inf, Expos from Cubs (Garciaparra four-team trade). Harris is a line-drive machine who's starting to hit for more power this year, and he's athletic enough to play second base, third base or shortstop. Making him a full-time shortstop might be a bit of a defensive stretch, but he's a better all-around player than incumbent Montreal third baseman Tony Batista—right now. 4. Denny Bautista, rhp, Royals from Orioles (Grimsley). Hmmm. Bautista, mid-90s fastball, possible plus curveball, pitching well in Double-A at age 23. Grimsley, not pitching particularly well in the majors at age 36. Nope, still can't figure this one out. 5. Justin Huber, c, Royals from Mets (Benson three-team trade). As with almost every New York prospect, Yankees or Mets, Huber was a bit overhyped. Scouts aren't sold that he's good enough defensively to catch regularly in the majors, and he has thrown out just 19 percent of basestealers in 2004. But Huber does have a potent bat that has carried him to Triple-A at age 22, and he should find his way into Kansas City's lineup somewhere. 6. Matt Murton, of, Cubs from Red Sox (Garciaparra). Not only did Hendry get Garciaparra without giving up anything of value from his big league roster, but he also extracted the best hitting prospect from the Boston system. Murton can hit for power and average and has had no problem with high Class A pitching in his first full pro season after the Red Sox made him a supplemental first-round pick in 2003. His only below-average tool is his arm, which limits him to left field. 7. Bill Murphy, lhp, Diamondbacks from Dodgers (Finley) from Marlins (Penny/Lo Duca six-player trade). Also traded last December from Oakland to Florida for Mark Redman, Murphy moved twice in two days at the deadline. His lively 89-91 mph fastball dances around bats, and he can become a middle-of-the-rotation starter if he improves his curveball and changeup. 8. Mark Teahen, 3b, Royals from Athletics (Beltran three-team trade). He's not going to be another Jason Giambi, but Teahen should be at least another Joe Randa. If the power he started to show in Double-A this year is for real, he'll be better than Randa. 9. Matt Peterson, rhp, Pirates from Mets (Benson). Not only did the Mets part with their best pitching prospect (Kazmir), they also jettisoned their second-best (Peterson) as well. Though slowed by a strained oblique this year, Peterson has the chance for three average or better pitches with a 12-to-6 curveball, a low-90s fastball and a developing changeup. 10. John Buck, c, Royals from Astros (Beltran). Buck hasn't exactly torn the cover off the ball since arriving in Kansas City and he may never hit for much of an average. However, his potential 20-homer power, arm strength, receiving skills and leadership make him the best catcher in the organization. With Buck and Huber, the Royals addressed a major weakness. 11. Koyie Hill, c, Diamondbacks from Dodgers (Finley). He's already in the majors, as Arizona immediately made Hill its starting catcher. A third baseman at Wichita State, he has good arm strength and hands but still is refining his catch-and-throw skills. A switch-hitter, he offers gap power and sprays line drives all over the diamond. 12. Justin Jones, lhp, Twins from Cubs (Garciaparra). On sheer ceiling, Jones would rank near the top of this list. But he was shut down twice with a tired arm in 2003 and hasn't been as sharp this year, when he sat out April with a sore elbow. When he's 100 percent, Jones shows two plus pitches (89-94 mph fastball and a curveball) as well as a promising changeup and a splitter. 13. Michael Morse, ss, Mariners from White Sox (Garcia). A career .248/.307/369 hitter with 18 homers in four pro seasons before 2004, Morse has batted .287/.342/.498 in Double-A this year. Is he for real? Can he close the holes in his strike zone? Is he a true shortstop? All that remains to be seen, but he's an athletic 22-year-old with power. 14. Francis Beltran, rhp, Expos from Cubs (Garciaparra). On a deep Cubs staff, Beltran would have been buried in middle relief for a while. In Montreal, he could emerge as the closer as early as next year. He served that role over Guillermo Mota and Felix Rodriguez while winning MVP honors and helping the Dominican Republic win the Caribbean World Series, and he has legitimate late-inning stuff with a mid-90s fastball, mid-80s slider and a splitter. 15. Mike Wood, rhp, Royals from Athletics (Beltran). Wood isn't as sexy as the rest of the guys on this list, or even Giants righthander Alfredo Simon (from the Phillies for Felix Rodriguez) and Pirates third baseman Jose Bautista (from the Royals in the Benson deal). He gets the nod over Simon and Bautista because he's more advanced, and Wood's sinker/splitter/changeup combo and command should allow him to contribute as a No. 4-5 starter or long reliever. |
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